Missile defence: It's still a bad idea

I think not

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This article was signed by 10 concerned Canadians, including former external affairs minister Lloyd Axworthy, vice-chancellor, University of Winnipeg; Dale Dewar, president, Physicians for Global Survival; Mel Hurtig, founder of the Council of Canadians; Peggy Mason, Canada's former U.N. ambassador for disarmament; John Polanyi, Nobel laureate and professor, University of Toronto; and Steven Staples, of the Polaris Institute.

The federal election has unexpectedly reopened the debate on Canada's participation in the U.S.'s Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system. The Canadian government, after a lengthy public debate, decided not to participate in the U.S. missile shield in February 2005. It was a popular decision because the majority of Canadians opposed participation and numerous events of the last year have borne out that it was the correct decision.

Conservative party leader Stephen Harper feels otherwise. He has promised that, if elected, his government will revisit the previous government's decision not to join the U.S. missile defence system.

In the past Parliament, all the political parties supported the government's decision not to participate in BMD with the exception of the Conservatives, who reserved judgment on the issue. Is it the Conservatives' assessment now that negotiating entry into the BMD program could be in Canada's best interests?

News and analysis from the United States shows Canada to be vindicated, as it appears that confidence in the viability of the ground-based, mid-course system is faltering.

A U.S. Senate defence subcommittee, led by missile defence advocate Republican Ted Stevens, recently warned supporters that the Missile Defence Agency had decided that the first generation of interceptor missiles in Alaska and California will also be the last.

The missiles are behind schedule, badly over budget and have yet to be fully tested or declared operational. In other words, as many prominent scientists and military experts have testified, the Pentagon is admitting BMD may never meet the challenge of achieving any acceptable reliability.

The Congressional Budget Office has also issued its own warning, predicting that the projected annual costs of the missile defence system could spiral upwards to $19 billion per year, more than twice its annual budget today.

In fact, after examining the key technologies and their likelihood of success, the budget office proposed halting missile defence deployment entirely. Had Ottawa joined and made a financial commitment, Canadians could have seen their expected contribution likewise skyrocket for a system that has little chance of functioning.

In any renewed discussion of Canada's participation in the ballistic missile defence program, the potential for the weaponization of space looms large. Like all other parties, the Conservative party shares an opposition to the weaponization of space, a chief international concern about the missile defence program.

But in the last year, President George W. Bush has shown no indication that he has renounced the Pentagon's and Air Force's declared and widely publicized plans to "dominate space" and to "deny others the use of space" through the use of space weapons.

On the contrary, doctrines for space warfare continue to be espoused in Washington.

Alarmingly, last fall the U.S. voted "no" for the first time on the annual United Nations resolution to prevent an arms race in outer space. Observers agree this is a clear indication that the decision to deploy space weapons may be imminent. Had Canada joined the ballistic missile defence program, we would have been unable to avoid responsibility for contributing to a new arms race in space.

The Canadian government approved detailed BMD talks with the Americans in May 2003 and rejected the idea in February 2005. Canadian questions about our potential participation apparently could not be answered satisfactorily. Would there eventually be U.S. weapons in space? Would Canada be stuck with a mounting tab as costs rapidly increased? Bush adamantly refused to give Prime Minister Paul Martin an undertaking that missile defence was not tied to the future weaponization of space.

What is more, the White House and proponents of BMD within the Canadian government were unable to convince Canadians that participating in the program is vital to their security.

Following the decision not to join, a Decima poll found that 57 per cent supported the decision, and 26 per cent opposed it. Virtually every constituency was opposed to BMD participation — from teenagers to senior citizens, men and women, urban and rural dwellers, and a majority in every single province. Simply put, strong links to the Bush administration make BMD an unpopular cause among many Canadians, who are clearly wary of Bush's aggressive military and foreign policy.

Canada was correct not to join missile defence in 2005, and nothing new has occurred that warrants reopening the debate.

Our country has long been a staunch advocate of diplomatic efforts to abolish nuclear weapons, and it has a strong interest in keeping Earth's orbit a demilitarized zone.

We believe that joining the "Star Wars" system being pushed by the Bush administration would undermine Canada's reputation as a peacekeeper and advocate for disarmament, and endanger the entire world.

Link
 

#juan

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The biggest thing against BMD

is that it doesn't work. It is simply not within the realm of our current technology to hit a 17,000 mph weapon with another 17,000 mph weapon. Scientists from all over America, and all over the world have said it is a waste of time and money. Why does Bush not listen?
 

geopolitics

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Jan 17, 2006
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I've said it before and I'll say it again, with EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) weapons in development what is the use of Missile Defense when it wouldn't work against EMP not to mention EMP would allow to quicker invasions.

Missile Defense = Waste of Money
 

zoofer

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Dec 31, 2005
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If Lloyd Axworthy signed it I would consider it rubbish.

North Korea and Iran are the threats right now. Firing nuke tipped missiles at the West coast need to be stopped. An explosion of sufficient magnitude in the vicinity of an incoming missile should destroy it. A direct collision is not required.
 

Hank C

Electoral Member
Jan 4, 2006
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The way I see it canada does not have to spend money on the missile defence system, all the US wants is for Canada to be at the table when a decision is made. It would be for the better if Canada had a say if there were going to be missiles shot over our soil.
 

#juan

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A Russian missile warhead traveling at 17,000 mph,

is covering 4.7 miles in a second. In a quarter of a second it goes 1.2 miles. So would the decoys which cannot be distinguished from real warheads. Both the decoys and the real warheads are steerable. The chances of hitting just one of these warheads with another missile are so remote that any success would be a lucky coincidence.

A terrorist with a SCUD type missile wouldn't tell anybody when, or from where he was going to launch the missile. It could be launched from a rusty old freighter in the harbour. There is no reliable defence for this type of attack. The Patriot anti-missile missiles used during the gulf war didn't hit anything.
 

I think not

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Russia Owns New Unbeatable Missile Systems — Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin boasted on Tuesday that Russia has missiles capable of penetrating any missile defense system, an apparent allusion the U.S. defense network, Russian news agencies reported.

“Russia last year tested missile systems that no one in the world has and won’t have for a long time,” he was quoted by the ITAR-Tass and RIA-Novosti news agencies as telling a news conference.

“These missile systems don’t represent a response to a missile defense system, but they are immune to that. They are hypersonic and capable of changing their flight path.”

Putin said he had shown the working principles of the missile systems to French President Jacques Chirac during a visit to a Russian military facility, AP added.

“He knows what I’m talking about,” RIA-Novosti quoted Putin as telling reporters after state-run news channels cut their live broadcast of the news conference.

The U.S. defense system against long-range missiles is limited mainly to an installation in Alaska, where at least six missile interceptors are in underground silos, linked to a command and control system. It is designed mainly to shoot down missiles fired at U.S. territory from North Korea, with future expansion planned.

http://www.mosnews.com/news/2006/01/31/putinmissiles.shtml
 

Curiosity

Senate Member
Jul 30, 2005
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I don't understand...

The argument here against BMD would be ?????

How would Canada protect itself - even with the numbers Juan has quoted - is there no defense at all and BMD is a fantasy in the minds of the countries who have signed on to the BMD network??
 

#juan

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Wednesday's Child

Currently, there is no defense against multple, steerable warhead ICBMs, other than hiding in a bomb shelter and hoping the damn things don't land on top of you. So far, the tests have not been encouraging. For the reasons I've stated earlier, the technology just doesn't exist. Missle Defense is going to be a money "black hole" for years. Scientists and engineers from all over the U.S. and the world have said that BMD is a waste of time and money. The obvious answer would be to adopt a more reasonable foreign policy, and stop pissing people off. How likely is that?
 

#juan

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But Canada knows best.....always.

Perhaps, ITN, you could offer a more optomistic take on a system that has had no real world success in any test to date for obvious reasons. Please tell us how you think it is going to succeed.
 

Curiosity

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Jul 30, 2005
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Juan

The post one floor up on Canada's agreeing to sign on to the BMD indicates another story in conflict with the one you have presented:

Finally, Canada's accession to the cause of BMD comes within a year of India and Japan both signing on to vastly expanded cooperation with the United States on it, and after the new Conservative government in Poland has also made clear its enthusiasm for participation in BMD development. While new Christian Democrat Chancellor Angela Merkel in Germany is hampered by the coalition partnership nature of her government with the Social Democrats, victory points to the possibility of future German participation in the BMD programs too.

In other words, around the advanced industrial democratic world, ballistic missile defense is now almost universally a vote-winner and support for it has characterized victorious and resurgent conservative parties in Asia and America, in North and South. Harper's victory confirms that trend.

So, does Canada know something that these countries do not in that the BMD's are outmoded, never designed to work in the first place, outgunned, a money waster, a vote getter....and all the other negatives I have read on these message boards.... why are they still in place?

And if they aren't any good, should they be disabled and scrapped, pouring money into more advanced and capable systems?

What does Canada propose to do to defend its people? I remember in January the confusion over the U.S. subs patrolling the inland passage north of Inuit territory.... is that going to remain unresolved as well?

If Canada wants to remain in its current role as peacekeeper, then perhaps arrangements should be in place to "hire" the services of the U.S. so that the people have some method of protection, and in the long run would save the Canadian taxpayer's money they can ill afford.

I just don't see any government letting its people hang out to dry because of a political philosophy and "who's best buds with whom".
Regardless the people have to be protected - and Canada would be the jewel in the crown to some countries who lack the natural resources Canada has to offer.

I would like to see absolute proof of these claims that BMD is a bad plan. What do the Canadian Forces planners have to say on the matter or can they speak about the topic?
 

I think not

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#juan said:
But Canada knows best.....always.

Perhaps, ITN, you could offer a more optomistic take on a system that has had no real world success in any test to date for obvious reasons. Please tell us how you think it is going to succeed.

I never said it would succeed, I don't know if it will or it won't, that's what R&D is for. Unless you put money into R&D to see if it works, you will never know.

The point is, Canada wasn't expected to front any money for it, nor was there to be any stationed missiles on Canadian soil, the entire reaction against the BMD was just to go against the US, you know it, I know it, everybody knows it.

Other countries are participating, they seem to believe it has a chance of working, and yet our Northern neighbor doesn't. Well that's fine. Canada knows best. I hope you're right and it is NEVER needed.
 

#juan

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http://www3.sympatico.ca/taylormcgreal/lettertobillgraham.html

BMD Simply Won't Work

A strong, broad consensus among scientists, engineers, and analysts worldwide - including in America - concludes that a BMD simply cannot defend North America against ballistic missile attacks. The technology that might do this hasn't even been conceived, let alone developed.

BMD is based on a seductively simple premise: use radar to track incoming missiles and launch "kill vehicles" to intercept those missiles before they strike American targets. Unfortunately, the real world is much more complex than the concept.

First, a real BMD system would have to identify an incoming ICBM travelling at super- or hyper-sonic speed on an unpredictable flight path in any kind of weather condition, and deploy an interceptor in time to stop it. Second, the system would have to track and intercept multiple incoming targets simultaneously, matching a kill vehicle to each target. (Instead of the usual "hit a bullet with a bullet" analogy, imagine knocking every bullet out of the air during a gangland shootout.) Third, the system would have to distinguish between real missiles and decoys. Since decoys are much easier to make than missiles and can be designed to look identical to a missile on radar, any attack against a country with BMD would likely contain many more decoys than missiles, forcing the system to squander kill vehicles on dummy targets while real targets slip through.

So far, the BMD has been tested in optimal weather against a single target that is equipped with a GPS device and broadcasts its position (we can only hope enemies would be this accomodating). Realistic decoys have not been used. Even under these ideal conditions, about half the tests conducted so far have failed. Further testing has actually been postponed until after deployment. Almost no one claims BMD can actually work, except for the weapons manufacturers that have enjoyed multibillion dollar development contracts.
 

DasFX

Electoral Member
Dec 6, 2004
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Even if missile defense worked, who is going to be shooting at North America? Rogue states like N.Korea, Iran and so do not have the capabilities to send ICBMs our way. Besides, if they are prepared to strike, they won't waste their first (and only) strike against us over here. There are better targets closer to home.

Terrorists are likely to hand deliver any nuclear device they attack us with. So all in all, I don't think the question is purely about if it works, but more of who is it supposed to work against?

The nations that could strike us, won't - Plain and simple.
 

#juan

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ITN wrote:
The point is, Canada wasn't expected to front any money for it, nor was there to be any stationed missiles on Canadian soil, the entire reaction against the BMD was just to go against the US, you know it, I know it, everybody knows it.

When most scientists and analysts tell us that the damn system won't work, why would we know better? It wasn't just to oppose the U.S.. It was simply staying out of a plan that has no chance of being successful. Maybe the U.S. should listen to their scientists-----not the ones with the big money contracts,---------the real scientists.