Mark Carney (Trudeau Liberal Replacement) as PM
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Is Canada becoming a one-party state?
The federal Liberals are currently on a 14-year run of uninterrupted power and have no need to face voters again until 2029
Author of the article:Lorrie Goldstein
Published Apr 25, 2026 • Last updated 23 hours ago • 4 minute read
Mark Carney strikes a fighter's pose at a campaign rally
Mark Carney strikes a fighter's pose at a campaign rally while wearing a Montreal Canadiens jersey on April 22, 2025. Photo by John Mahoney /Postmedia Network
While the federal Liberals smugly refer to themselves as Canada’s natural governing party, the historical record suggests that may be true, despite the danger it poses to democracy.
They’ve been in charge of the country 70% of the time since 1900.
They are currently on a 14-year run of uninterrupted power starting in 2015, without needing to face voters again until 2029.
If their current polling numbers hold until 2029, they would win a massive majority government, guaranteeing uninterrupted Liberal rule until 2034, or for almost two decades.
Starting in 2015, the Liberals – their power base centred in eastern and central Canada and vote-rich cities such as Toronto – have defeated the Conservatives in four consecutive elections, securing an after-the-vote majority government in the wake of the 2025 election, courtesy of four Conservative floor crossers.
The addition of one defector from the NDP is less significant than the NDP’s collapse ever since the 2011 election.
That was when the NDP reached its electoral high point under the late Jack Layton, winning 103 seats and 30.6% of the popular vote, thus becoming the official opposition to a Conservative majority government led by Stephen Harper, the last time the Tories won a federal election.
In last year’s election, the NDP captured a mere 6.29% of the popular vote and just seven seats, now down to five after the one MP defected to the Liberals and another quit to run in the Quebec election this fall.
Conservatives need viable NDP to split progressive vote
Given that the Conservatives need a viable NDP to split the progressive vote with the Liberals to win, the demise of the NDP is good news for Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals, bad news for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives.
Were the NDP to disappear – a possibility – it would further solidify the Liberals in future elections.
In the modern era, the record of the Brian Mulroney, Jean Chretien, Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau governments all suggest that the “best before date” for any government before it is replaced by the opposition occurs after roughly 10 years in power, give or take a few years on either side.
That was what everyone expected would happen to the Trudeau Liberals heading into last year’s federal election with Poilievre and the Conservatives returning to power with a majority government after a decade in opposition.
Then Trudeau quit and the Liberals elected Carney as their leader, prompting one of the most dramatic turnarounds in Canadian political history and breaking the roughly 10-year pattern of Liberals and Conservatives trading power.
The Liberals, who could easily have fallen into third place in last year’s election under Trudeau, instead achieved a strong minority government under Carney.
Floor-crossing elevated Liberals to majority government
Since then, floor-crossing has elevated the Liberals to a majority government of 174 seats – recapturing direct control of the House of Commons for the first time since 2015 – compared to 169 seats, soon to be 168, for the combined opposition parties in the 343-seat legislature.
One of the many political advantages of this for the Liberals is that they’ve regained control of Commons committees, reducing the ability of the opposition to influence legislation and hold the government to account on ethical issues.
Carney’s combination of anti-Americanism and economic nationalism in the age of Donald Trump has clearly struck a chord with Canadian voters.
That’s been re-enforced by favourable polling showing a double-digit Liberal lead nationally and liberal media coverage of Carney that often borders on hagiography, similar to Justin Trudeau’s early years in power
Indeed, much of the Canadian media today seems more interested in speculating about how many more Conservatives will defect to the Liberals and how long Poilievre can last as leader, as opposed to the media’s self-described role of holding the government to account.
Conservatives allege legacy print media beholden to federal Liberals
Frustration over this was voiced last week by Conservative MP John Brassard, chair of the Commons ethics committee – until the Liberals take control of it – who admonished reporters to “do your goddamn job” arguing the media have become so Liberal-friendly that the, “Opposition party is held to a greater account than the government.
“It’s a sad indictment on where we are with respect to oversight and accountability and transparency when there are YouTubers who are finding out more about what’s happening within the Liberal government and the scandals and the connections of well-connected insiders, lobbyists and family members,” Brassard said, as reported by the independent news agency Blacklock’s Reporter.
Conservatives allege the legacy print media is beholden to the federal Liberals because they are being subsidized by the federal government (which the newspaper industry lobbied for) – a separate issue from the $1.4 billion the government supplies annually to the state-funded CBC, with Carney pledging a $150-million increase in the last federal budget.
Given all this, it is understandable many Canadians believe much of their media is in a conflict of interest regarding their coverage of the Liberals.
While, as the cliche goes, a week is a lifetime in politics, the possibility of an emerging federal Liberal dynasty similar – for example, to the 44-year reign of the Progressives Conservatives in Alberta from 1971 to 2015, or the 42-year rule of the Progressive Conservatives in Ontario from 1943 to 1985 – is not beyond the realm of possibility.
blacklocks.ca
torontosun.com
The federal Liberals are currently on a 14-year run of uninterrupted power and have no need to face voters again until 2029
Author of the article:Lorrie Goldstein
Published Apr 25, 2026 • Last updated 23 hours ago • 4 minute read
Mark Carney strikes a fighter's pose at a campaign rally
Mark Carney strikes a fighter's pose at a campaign rally while wearing a Montreal Canadiens jersey on April 22, 2025. Photo by John Mahoney /Postmedia Network
While the federal Liberals smugly refer to themselves as Canada’s natural governing party, the historical record suggests that may be true, despite the danger it poses to democracy.
They’ve been in charge of the country 70% of the time since 1900.
They are currently on a 14-year run of uninterrupted power starting in 2015, without needing to face voters again until 2029.
If their current polling numbers hold until 2029, they would win a massive majority government, guaranteeing uninterrupted Liberal rule until 2034, or for almost two decades.
Starting in 2015, the Liberals – their power base centred in eastern and central Canada and vote-rich cities such as Toronto – have defeated the Conservatives in four consecutive elections, securing an after-the-vote majority government in the wake of the 2025 election, courtesy of four Conservative floor crossers.
The addition of one defector from the NDP is less significant than the NDP’s collapse ever since the 2011 election.
That was when the NDP reached its electoral high point under the late Jack Layton, winning 103 seats and 30.6% of the popular vote, thus becoming the official opposition to a Conservative majority government led by Stephen Harper, the last time the Tories won a federal election.
In last year’s election, the NDP captured a mere 6.29% of the popular vote and just seven seats, now down to five after the one MP defected to the Liberals and another quit to run in the Quebec election this fall.
Conservatives need viable NDP to split progressive vote
Given that the Conservatives need a viable NDP to split the progressive vote with the Liberals to win, the demise of the NDP is good news for Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals, bad news for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives.
Were the NDP to disappear – a possibility – it would further solidify the Liberals in future elections.
In the modern era, the record of the Brian Mulroney, Jean Chretien, Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau governments all suggest that the “best before date” for any government before it is replaced by the opposition occurs after roughly 10 years in power, give or take a few years on either side.
That was what everyone expected would happen to the Trudeau Liberals heading into last year’s federal election with Poilievre and the Conservatives returning to power with a majority government after a decade in opposition.
Then Trudeau quit and the Liberals elected Carney as their leader, prompting one of the most dramatic turnarounds in Canadian political history and breaking the roughly 10-year pattern of Liberals and Conservatives trading power.
The Liberals, who could easily have fallen into third place in last year’s election under Trudeau, instead achieved a strong minority government under Carney.
Floor-crossing elevated Liberals to majority government
Since then, floor-crossing has elevated the Liberals to a majority government of 174 seats – recapturing direct control of the House of Commons for the first time since 2015 – compared to 169 seats, soon to be 168, for the combined opposition parties in the 343-seat legislature.
One of the many political advantages of this for the Liberals is that they’ve regained control of Commons committees, reducing the ability of the opposition to influence legislation and hold the government to account on ethical issues.
Carney’s combination of anti-Americanism and economic nationalism in the age of Donald Trump has clearly struck a chord with Canadian voters.
That’s been re-enforced by favourable polling showing a double-digit Liberal lead nationally and liberal media coverage of Carney that often borders on hagiography, similar to Justin Trudeau’s early years in power
Indeed, much of the Canadian media today seems more interested in speculating about how many more Conservatives will defect to the Liberals and how long Poilievre can last as leader, as opposed to the media’s self-described role of holding the government to account.
Conservatives allege legacy print media beholden to federal Liberals
Frustration over this was voiced last week by Conservative MP John Brassard, chair of the Commons ethics committee – until the Liberals take control of it – who admonished reporters to “do your goddamn job” arguing the media have become so Liberal-friendly that the, “Opposition party is held to a greater account than the government.
“It’s a sad indictment on where we are with respect to oversight and accountability and transparency when there are YouTubers who are finding out more about what’s happening within the Liberal government and the scandals and the connections of well-connected insiders, lobbyists and family members,” Brassard said, as reported by the independent news agency Blacklock’s Reporter.
Conservatives allege the legacy print media is beholden to the federal Liberals because they are being subsidized by the federal government (which the newspaper industry lobbied for) – a separate issue from the $1.4 billion the government supplies annually to the state-funded CBC, with Carney pledging a $150-million increase in the last federal budget.
Given all this, it is understandable many Canadians believe much of their media is in a conflict of interest regarding their coverage of the Liberals.
While, as the cliche goes, a week is a lifetime in politics, the possibility of an emerging federal Liberal dynasty similar – for example, to the 44-year reign of the Progressives Conservatives in Alberta from 1971 to 2015, or the 42-year rule of the Progressive Conservatives in Ontario from 1943 to 1985 – is not beyond the realm of possibility.
‘Do Your GD Job,’ Says Chair | Blacklock's Reporter
GOLDSTEIN: Is Canada becoming a one-party state?
The federal Liberals refer to themselves as Canada's natural governing party and the historical record suggests that may be true. Read more.
Liberal support flattens, lead over Tories falls to 11 points
Results courtesy of Liaison Strategies' weekly federal tracker poll
Author of the article:Bryan Passifiume
Published Apr 27, 2026 • 2 minute read
Parliament Hill in Ottawa, home to Canada’s House of Commons and Senate.
Parliament Hill in Ottawa, home to Canada’s House of Commons and Senate. Postmedia files
OTTAWA — In the face of the widening lead enjoyed by the Mark Carney Liberals, the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives recovered a point in this week’s Liaison federal tracking poll.
If a federal election were held today, 45% of those polled said they’d vote for the Mark Carney Liberals, compared to 34% for the Tories.
That represents an 11-point lead, with the Tories picking up an extra per cent from last week, when they were only able to garner 33% of the vote.
Liberals eye additional seat as another byelection looms
While the Liberal lead did indeed flatten this week, it comes as the party — just weeks removed from obtaining its end-run-around majority — enjoys strong poll numbers.
“It’s another week of smooth sailing for the Liberals, who continue to dominate after winning a crucial byelection in Terrebonne,” said Liaison Strategies Principal David Valentin. “The Conservatives are up a point this week while the Liberals are flat, but that’s not much for them to celebrate, the regional breakdown still points to a commanding Liberal majority if the election were held today.”
While the LIberals managed to use byelection wins to cobble together a majority one year after the last federal election, news over the weekend of the impending resignation of the federal NDP’s only Quebec MP Alexandre Boulerice gives the Liberals a shot at winning yet another seat in the House of Commons.
“Theoretically this should be an easy pick-up for the Liberals since the seat is on the Island of Montreal, is surrounded by other Liberal seats, they are leading in Quebec by 19 province-wide, etc.,” Valentin said. “However, by-elections are strange animals sometimes and a lot could happen between now and by-election day.”
Carney enjoys strong approval, Canadians still wary of Poilievre
Sitting five per cent below his all-time high, Carney’s approval ratings likewise stayed steady this week, remaining at 62%.
That’s up from a slight dip to 60% seen earlier this month.
Those who say they disapprove with the job Carney’s doing increased slightly, sitting at 31% this week.
Poilievre’s favorability rating likewise increased slightly this week to 37%, number of those who hold unfavourable views of the opposition leader remained steady at 53%.
And while newly-minted NDP Leader Avi Lewis saw his favourabilty rating increase sightly to 25% — alongside 21% of those polled who said they don’t like the job he’s doing — his fight for political relevance continues, as 37% of those polled reported not knowing who Lewis was.
The poll was conducted among 1,000 Canadians between April 13 and April 26, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
bpassifiume@postmedia.com
torontosun.com
Results courtesy of Liaison Strategies' weekly federal tracker poll
Author of the article:Bryan Passifiume
Published Apr 27, 2026 • 2 minute read
Parliament Hill in Ottawa, home to Canada’s House of Commons and Senate.
Parliament Hill in Ottawa, home to Canada’s House of Commons and Senate. Postmedia files
OTTAWA — In the face of the widening lead enjoyed by the Mark Carney Liberals, the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives recovered a point in this week’s Liaison federal tracking poll.
If a federal election were held today, 45% of those polled said they’d vote for the Mark Carney Liberals, compared to 34% for the Tories.
That represents an 11-point lead, with the Tories picking up an extra per cent from last week, when they were only able to garner 33% of the vote.
Liberals eye additional seat as another byelection looms
While the Liberal lead did indeed flatten this week, it comes as the party — just weeks removed from obtaining its end-run-around majority — enjoys strong poll numbers.
“It’s another week of smooth sailing for the Liberals, who continue to dominate after winning a crucial byelection in Terrebonne,” said Liaison Strategies Principal David Valentin. “The Conservatives are up a point this week while the Liberals are flat, but that’s not much for them to celebrate, the regional breakdown still points to a commanding Liberal majority if the election were held today.”
While the LIberals managed to use byelection wins to cobble together a majority one year after the last federal election, news over the weekend of the impending resignation of the federal NDP’s only Quebec MP Alexandre Boulerice gives the Liberals a shot at winning yet another seat in the House of Commons.
“Theoretically this should be an easy pick-up for the Liberals since the seat is on the Island of Montreal, is surrounded by other Liberal seats, they are leading in Quebec by 19 province-wide, etc.,” Valentin said. “However, by-elections are strange animals sometimes and a lot could happen between now and by-election day.”
Carney enjoys strong approval, Canadians still wary of Poilievre
Sitting five per cent below his all-time high, Carney’s approval ratings likewise stayed steady this week, remaining at 62%.
That’s up from a slight dip to 60% seen earlier this month.
Those who say they disapprove with the job Carney’s doing increased slightly, sitting at 31% this week.
Poilievre’s favorability rating likewise increased slightly this week to 37%, number of those who hold unfavourable views of the opposition leader remained steady at 53%.
And while newly-minted NDP Leader Avi Lewis saw his favourabilty rating increase sightly to 25% — alongside 21% of those polled who said they don’t like the job he’s doing — his fight for political relevance continues, as 37% of those polled reported not knowing who Lewis was.
The poll was conducted among 1,000 Canadians between April 13 and April 26, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
bpassifiume@postmedia.com
Liberal support flattens, lead over Tories falls to 11 points
If a federal election were held today, 45% said they'd vote for the Mark Carney Liberals, compared to 34% for the Tories. Read more.
Mark Carney's approval rating as PM slips despite Liberal lead in polls
Support fell below 60% for the first time since late January, according to Liaison Strategies poll
Author of the article:Bryan Passifiume
Published May 12, 2026 • 2 minute read
Prime Minister Mark Carney walks to his office for a cabinet meeting on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on April 28, 2026.
Prime Minister Mark Carney walks to his office for a cabinet meeting on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on April 28, 2026. Photo by Blair Gable /Postmedia
OTTAWA — While the Mark Carney Liberals enjoyed a near double-digit advantage over the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives, the prime minister’s approval rating saw a noticeable dip since the end of last month.
That’s according to Liaison Strategies’ weekly federal tracker poll, which shows the PM’s approval rating falling below 60% for the first time since late January.
“Fifty-eight per cent approve of the job he is doing as prime minister, while 34% disapprove and 8% are unsure,” said Liaison’s David Valentin.
“A two-point drop is not nothing, but when your approval is still near 60%, you have room to absorb a little turbulence.”
Nevertheless, the two-point drop represented a week-over-week decline of his approval ratings, compounded by a steady rise in his disapproval rating over the same time period.
“Ever since the Davos speech, the prime minister has been in the 60s and now he’s slipped to 58%,” Valentin said, reffering to Carney’s address to the World Economic Forum.
Mark Carney's approval rating.
Mark Carney’s approval rating. Photo by Toronto Sun graphic
Bad news for Poilievre as well
Poilievre’s fortunes, however, continue to founder in opinion polls, with the Conservative leader only pulling 36% of positive responses when asked if respondents had a favourable or unfavourable view of him.
“Thirty-six per cent have a favourable view of him, while 51% have an unfavourable view,” Valentin said.
“That is a difficult number for an Opposition leader trying to broaden the Conservative coalition beyond the party’s existing base.”
If a federal election were held today, 37% of those polled said they’d vote Liberal, compared to 28% who supported the Tories. Nine per cent said they’d vote NDP, 5% put their vote behind the Bloc Quebecois and 16% said they supported another party.
‘Strong’ support for Liberals in Ontario
“The topline has not moved much, but the underlying numbers are not completely static,” Valentin said.
“The Liberals remain in a very strong position in Ontario, where they sit at 51% among decided and leaning voters, and they are further ahead in Atlantic Canada at 52%.”
While the Tories remain strong in the Prairies, Valentin said it isn’t enough to shift national trends.
“As long as the Liberals are around 50% in Ontario and comfortably ahead in Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives have a very narrow path,” he said.
The poll was conducted with a random sample of 1,526 Canadians between April 27 and Saturday with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.51 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
bpassifiume@postmedia.com
![carney-rating[1].jpg](https://forums.canadiancontent.net/data/attachments/32/32651-46998be7b044939c69a80e79a69c7627.jpg "carney-rating[1].jpg")
torontosun.com
Support fell below 60% for the first time since late January, according to Liaison Strategies poll
Author of the article:Bryan Passifiume
Published May 12, 2026 • 2 minute read
Prime Minister Mark Carney walks to his office for a cabinet meeting on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on April 28, 2026.
Prime Minister Mark Carney walks to his office for a cabinet meeting on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on April 28, 2026. Photo by Blair Gable /Postmedia
OTTAWA — While the Mark Carney Liberals enjoyed a near double-digit advantage over the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives, the prime minister’s approval rating saw a noticeable dip since the end of last month.
That’s according to Liaison Strategies’ weekly federal tracker poll, which shows the PM’s approval rating falling below 60% for the first time since late January.
“Fifty-eight per cent approve of the job he is doing as prime minister, while 34% disapprove and 8% are unsure,” said Liaison’s David Valentin.
“A two-point drop is not nothing, but when your approval is still near 60%, you have room to absorb a little turbulence.”
Nevertheless, the two-point drop represented a week-over-week decline of his approval ratings, compounded by a steady rise in his disapproval rating over the same time period.
“Ever since the Davos speech, the prime minister has been in the 60s and now he’s slipped to 58%,” Valentin said, reffering to Carney’s address to the World Economic Forum.
Mark Carney's approval rating.
Mark Carney’s approval rating. Photo by Toronto Sun graphic
Bad news for Poilievre as well
Poilievre’s fortunes, however, continue to founder in opinion polls, with the Conservative leader only pulling 36% of positive responses when asked if respondents had a favourable or unfavourable view of him.
“Thirty-six per cent have a favourable view of him, while 51% have an unfavourable view,” Valentin said.
“That is a difficult number for an Opposition leader trying to broaden the Conservative coalition beyond the party’s existing base.”
If a federal election were held today, 37% of those polled said they’d vote Liberal, compared to 28% who supported the Tories. Nine per cent said they’d vote NDP, 5% put their vote behind the Bloc Quebecois and 16% said they supported another party.
‘Strong’ support for Liberals in Ontario
“The topline has not moved much, but the underlying numbers are not completely static,” Valentin said.
“The Liberals remain in a very strong position in Ontario, where they sit at 51% among decided and leaning voters, and they are further ahead in Atlantic Canada at 52%.”
While the Tories remain strong in the Prairies, Valentin said it isn’t enough to shift national trends.
“As long as the Liberals are around 50% in Ontario and comfortably ahead in Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives have a very narrow path,” he said.
The poll was conducted with a random sample of 1,526 Canadians between April 27 and Saturday with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.51 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
bpassifiume@postmedia.com
Mark Carney's approval rating as PM slips despite Liberal lead in polls
The prime minister's approval rating fell below 60% for the first time since late January, according to Liaison Strategies. Read more.
Elbows up .Mark Carney's approval rating as PM slips despite Liberal lead in polls
Support fell below 60% for the first time since late January, according to Liaison Strategies poll
Author of the article:Bryan Passifiume
Published May 12, 2026 • 2 minute read
Prime Minister Mark Carney walks to his office for a cabinet meeting on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on April 28, 2026.
Prime Minister Mark Carney walks to his office for a cabinet meeting on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on April 28, 2026. Photo by Blair Gable /Postmedia
OTTAWA — While the Mark Carney Liberals enjoyed a near double-digit advantage over the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives, the prime minister’s approval rating saw a noticeable dip since the end of last month.
That’s according to Liaison Strategies’ weekly federal tracker poll, which shows the PM’s approval rating falling below 60% for the first time since late January.
“Fifty-eight per cent approve of the job he is doing as prime minister, while 34% disapprove and 8% are unsure,” said Liaison’s David Valentin.
“A two-point drop is not nothing, but when your approval is still near 60%, you have room to absorb a little turbulence.”
Nevertheless, the two-point drop represented a week-over-week decline of his approval ratings, compounded by a steady rise in his disapproval rating over the same time period.
“Ever since the Davos speech, the prime minister has been in the 60s and now he’s slipped to 58%,” Valentin said, reffering to Carney’s address to the World Economic Forum.
Mark Carney's approval rating.
Mark Carney’s approval rating. Photo by Toronto Sun graphic
Bad news for Poilievre as well
Poilievre’s fortunes, however, continue to founder in opinion polls, with the Conservative leader only pulling 36% of positive responses when asked if respondents had a favourable or unfavourable view of him.
“Thirty-six per cent have a favourable view of him, while 51% have an unfavourable view,” Valentin said.
“That is a difficult number for an Opposition leader trying to broaden the Conservative coalition beyond the party’s existing base.”
If a federal election were held today, 37% of those polled said they’d vote Liberal, compared to 28% who supported the Tories. Nine per cent said they’d vote NDP, 5% put their vote behind the Bloc Quebecois and 16% said they supported another party.
‘Strong’ support for Liberals in Ontario
“The topline has not moved much, but the underlying numbers are not completely static,” Valentin said.
“The Liberals remain in a very strong position in Ontario, where they sit at 51% among decided and leaning voters, and they are further ahead in Atlantic Canada at 52%.”
While the Tories remain strong in the Prairies, Valentin said it isn’t enough to shift national trends.
“As long as the Liberals are around 50% in Ontario and comfortably ahead in Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives have a very narrow path,” he said.
The poll was conducted with a random sample of 1,526 Canadians between April 27 and Saturday with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.51 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
bpassifiume@postmedia.com
View attachment 34389
Mark Carney's approval rating as PM slips despite Liberal lead in polls
The prime minister's approval rating fell below 60% for the first time since late January, according to Liaison Strategies. Read more.
Unfortunately, that's still a pretty healthy approval rating.Mark Carney's approval rating as PM slips despite Liberal lead in polls
Support fell below 60% for the first time since late January, according to Liaison Strategies poll
Author of the article:Bryan Passifiume
Published May 12, 2026 • 2 minute read
Prime Minister Mark Carney walks to his office for a cabinet meeting on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on April 28, 2026.
Prime Minister Mark Carney walks to his office for a cabinet meeting on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on April 28, 2026. Photo by Blair Gable /Postmedia
OTTAWA — While the Mark Carney Liberals enjoyed a near double-digit advantage over the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives, the prime minister’s approval rating saw a noticeable dip since the end of last month.
That’s according to Liaison Strategies’ weekly federal tracker poll, which shows the PM’s approval rating falling below 60% for the first time since late January.
“Fifty-eight per cent approve of the job he is doing as prime minister, while 34% disapprove and 8% are unsure,” said Liaison’s David Valentin.
“A two-point drop is not nothing, but when your approval is still near 60%, you have room to absorb a little turbulence.”
Nevertheless, the two-point drop represented a week-over-week decline of his approval ratings, compounded by a steady rise in his disapproval rating over the same time period.
“Ever since the Davos speech, the prime minister has been in the 60s and now he’s slipped to 58%,” Valentin said, reffering to Carney’s address to the World Economic Forum.
Mark Carney's approval rating.
Mark Carney’s approval rating. Photo by Toronto Sun graphic
Bad news for Poilievre as well
Poilievre’s fortunes, however, continue to founder in opinion polls, with the Conservative leader only pulling 36% of positive responses when asked if respondents had a favourable or unfavourable view of him.
“Thirty-six per cent have a favourable view of him, while 51% have an unfavourable view,” Valentin said.
“That is a difficult number for an Opposition leader trying to broaden the Conservative coalition beyond the party’s existing base.”
If a federal election were held today, 37% of those polled said they’d vote Liberal, compared to 28% who supported the Tories. Nine per cent said they’d vote NDP, 5% put their vote behind the Bloc Quebecois and 16% said they supported another party.
‘Strong’ support for Liberals in Ontario
“The topline has not moved much, but the underlying numbers are not completely static,” Valentin said.
“The Liberals remain in a very strong position in Ontario, where they sit at 51% among decided and leaning voters, and they are further ahead in Atlantic Canada at 52%.”
While the Tories remain strong in the Prairies, Valentin said it isn’t enough to shift national trends.
“As long as the Liberals are around 50% in Ontario and comfortably ahead in Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives have a very narrow path,” he said.
The poll was conducted with a random sample of 1,526 Canadians between April 27 and Saturday with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.51 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
bpassifiume@postmedia.com
View attachment 34389
Mark Carney's approval rating as PM slips despite Liberal lead in polls
The prime minister's approval rating fell below 60% for the first time since late January, according to Liaison Strategies. Read more.
Separatism is helping that.
Liberals can't sweep voting irregularities under rug
Party is facing serious allegations of wrongdoing in the vote that happened over the weekend
Author of the article:Brian Lilley
Published May 13, 2026 • 3 minute read
Toronto-area Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith is among those considering running for the leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party. Toronto-area Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith.
Toronto-area Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith is among those considering running for the leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party. Photo by Elliot Ferguson /Postmedia Network
The mess that was the Ontario Liberal nomination race in Scarborough Southwest can’t simply be swept under the rug. The party is facing serious allegations of wrongdoing in the vote that happened over the weekend, and those must be answered, not ignored.
Nate Erskine-Smith, who lost by 19 votes to Ahsanul Hafiz, has claimed that there were 34 more ballots counted than there were recorded voters. He also said there were “repeated and serious inconsistencies with respect to proof of identification” and said there were “problematic actions in the voting area.”
His chief scrutineer is a man named Andreas Katsouris, who has worked on elections, helping build democracies around the world and is highly critical of the process.
“There was an organized effort by Mr. Hafiz’s campaign on Saturday to direct, monitor and pressure people throughout the voting process, from the time they walked into the building to after they cast their ballots,” Katsouris said.
Persistent voting irregularities
He spoke of people taking phone and video calls and getting instructions while in the ballot booth, something Katsouris said he raised with party officials, but that his concerns were ignored.
“Dozens and dozens of asylum-seekers voted with their refugee claimant documents. Others were able to prove their addresses using just an apartment lease, sometimes two of which listed voters under 18,” Katsouris said.
“Other non-standard forms of ID accepted included digital report cards and Amazon orders. One man even voted with a foreign visitor’s visa.”
Non-citizens and non-residents were voting
Personally, I have a real problem with asylum-seekers and people using their visitors’ visas to vote, but sadly, that is allowed under the rules of the Ontario Liberal Party. In fact, it is allowed under the rules of all the major parties at Queen’s Park, who don’t have any requirement that those voting in nomination and leadership races be citizens.
To vote in a provincial election you need to be 18 and a citizen of Canada, to vote in a provincial nomination race you can be as young as 13 and an asylum-seeker or visitor from another country and your vote counts.
This is utter madness, and it needs to end for all parties.
Beyond tightening up these rules, which also need to be stricter at the federal level as well, the Ontario Liberal Party has a real issue on their hands with the allegations of irregularities. According to Erkine-Smith and his team, the party published a list of acceptable forms of identification and then ignored it completely.
Erskine-Smith has even said that he will remove himself from any future nomination races in Scarborough Southwest but implored the party to take the allegations seriously.
Liberal brass don’t want to address these issues
Interim Liberal Leader John Fraser, a man who has spent more time leading his party than the last two elected leaders, defended the vote on Saturday, saying there was nothing to worry about.
“I know it was fair,” Fraser said Monday. “If somebody’s saying that it’s not fair, then prove it.”
After Erskine-Smith filed his appeal, Fraser leaned back on the process saying the board of arbitration will examine all issues.
“They will adjudicate it expeditiously and thoroughly,” Fraser said.
“I’m confident they’ll be able to take a look at those things and address those.”
None of this looks good on the Liberals and they had best clear the air.
After a series of questionable nomination races that caused controversy in 2017, then-PC Party leader Patrick Brown ordered an investigation and called new nomination meetings.
The Ontario Liberal Party would be smart to do the same thing lest they end up with a candidate with a cloud hanging over his head.
Longer-term, though, every party needs to adopt new rules for nomination meetings, and the general rule should be, that if you can’t vote in a general election, you can’t vote any other time.
torontosun.com
Party is facing serious allegations of wrongdoing in the vote that happened over the weekend
Author of the article:Brian Lilley
Published May 13, 2026 • 3 minute read
Toronto-area Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith is among those considering running for the leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party. Toronto-area Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith.
Toronto-area Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith is among those considering running for the leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party. Photo by Elliot Ferguson /Postmedia Network
The mess that was the Ontario Liberal nomination race in Scarborough Southwest can’t simply be swept under the rug. The party is facing serious allegations of wrongdoing in the vote that happened over the weekend, and those must be answered, not ignored.
Nate Erskine-Smith, who lost by 19 votes to Ahsanul Hafiz, has claimed that there were 34 more ballots counted than there were recorded voters. He also said there were “repeated and serious inconsistencies with respect to proof of identification” and said there were “problematic actions in the voting area.”
His chief scrutineer is a man named Andreas Katsouris, who has worked on elections, helping build democracies around the world and is highly critical of the process.
“There was an organized effort by Mr. Hafiz’s campaign on Saturday to direct, monitor and pressure people throughout the voting process, from the time they walked into the building to after they cast their ballots,” Katsouris said.
Persistent voting irregularities
He spoke of people taking phone and video calls and getting instructions while in the ballot booth, something Katsouris said he raised with party officials, but that his concerns were ignored.
“Dozens and dozens of asylum-seekers voted with their refugee claimant documents. Others were able to prove their addresses using just an apartment lease, sometimes two of which listed voters under 18,” Katsouris said.
“Other non-standard forms of ID accepted included digital report cards and Amazon orders. One man even voted with a foreign visitor’s visa.”
Non-citizens and non-residents were voting
Personally, I have a real problem with asylum-seekers and people using their visitors’ visas to vote, but sadly, that is allowed under the rules of the Ontario Liberal Party. In fact, it is allowed under the rules of all the major parties at Queen’s Park, who don’t have any requirement that those voting in nomination and leadership races be citizens.
To vote in a provincial election you need to be 18 and a citizen of Canada, to vote in a provincial nomination race you can be as young as 13 and an asylum-seeker or visitor from another country and your vote counts.
This is utter madness, and it needs to end for all parties.
Beyond tightening up these rules, which also need to be stricter at the federal level as well, the Ontario Liberal Party has a real issue on their hands with the allegations of irregularities. According to Erkine-Smith and his team, the party published a list of acceptable forms of identification and then ignored it completely.
Erskine-Smith has even said that he will remove himself from any future nomination races in Scarborough Southwest but implored the party to take the allegations seriously.
Liberal brass don’t want to address these issues
Interim Liberal Leader John Fraser, a man who has spent more time leading his party than the last two elected leaders, defended the vote on Saturday, saying there was nothing to worry about.
“I know it was fair,” Fraser said Monday. “If somebody’s saying that it’s not fair, then prove it.”
After Erskine-Smith filed his appeal, Fraser leaned back on the process saying the board of arbitration will examine all issues.
“They will adjudicate it expeditiously and thoroughly,” Fraser said.
“I’m confident they’ll be able to take a look at those things and address those.”
None of this looks good on the Liberals and they had best clear the air.
After a series of questionable nomination races that caused controversy in 2017, then-PC Party leader Patrick Brown ordered an investigation and called new nomination meetings.
The Ontario Liberal Party would be smart to do the same thing lest they end up with a candidate with a cloud hanging over his head.
Longer-term, though, every party needs to adopt new rules for nomination meetings, and the general rule should be, that if you can’t vote in a general election, you can’t vote any other time.
LILLEY: Liberals can't sweep voting irregularities under rug
The Ontario Liberal nomination race mess in Scarborough Southwest can’t simply be swept under the rug, writes Brian Lilley. Find out more.