Maritimes Future after Quebec Separation

[DasFX]

As an Ontarian, my opinion towards the possible separation of Quebec are mostly governed by emotion and sentiment. I believe Ontario would not suffer greatly economically if Quebec left, and life would pretty much continue on unchanged. However for Atlantic Canadians the situation would be reach far deeper.

I'm of the opinion that had Quebec been at the "end" of the country, such as BC or Newfouldland, their independence would have been acheieved years ago.

However, they are not, their exit from the federation would leave a large hole in the map of Canada separating Atlantic Canada from Ontario. How would Atlantic Canadians react? What course would you want your governments to follow?

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Maritimes Future afte

That depends a lot on what separation entails, doesn't it?

First of all, no matter what, if Quebec separates it will cost us all a great deal on the economic front. Money reacts badly to political instability.

If Quebec separates in name only (sovereignty association) I doubt it will affect too much. The deal they were looking for the last time this was discussed pretty much had them remaining a part of Canada, but calling themselves a sovereign state.

If Quebec is cut right off, I think the Maritimes will likely either become their own nation, driven by their new-found oil wealth; or become part of the USA.

 

[Jay]

The Maritimes should consider joining the new country of Quebec. There is enough French people there. Those in the Maritimes, who don't like Quebec, can find all sorts of places in NA to move too.


"Money reacts badly to political instability."

If Quebec separated, the instability would be gone. The fight would be over; we should see a stable environment from there on.

 

[DasFX]

Re: RE: Maritimes Future afte

If Quebec separates in name only (sovereignty association) I doubt it will affect too much. The deal they were looking for the last time this was discussed pretty much had them remaining a part of Canada, but calling themselves a sovereign state.

If Quebec is cut right off, I think the Maritimes will likely either become their own nation, driven by their new-found oil wealth; or become part of the USA.

To me separation should mean being cut right off. I mean the sovereignty association is basically a renewed federal agreement that would be appealing to other provinces as well. I don't see what this would achieve. I thought it was a true nation they wanted, not mere semantics.

 

[Reverend Blair]

If Quebec separated, the instability would be gone. The fight would be over; we should see a stable environment from there on.

Maybe after a decade or so, depending on what the deal was. Also keep in mind that Quebec is a major (and growing) energy supplier to Ontario and to the eastern seaboard of the US. New agreements would have to be signed. There is the matter of Labrador, and spectre of native issues. Even the borders of Quebec may become an issue. Environmental and border agreements would have to be reached on three sides. Maritime rights would have to be sorted out. A new country would have to admitted to the IJC. Trade agreements would have to be made. Issues of citizenship would need to be resolved.

It would take at least ten years to fight out those issues and decide what should be done. Ten years of an uncertain economy for all involved, then probably another ten years to rebuild.

This isn't like disowning an errant brother, Jay. It is more like like kids fighting over an inheritance. It will be long and complicated and only the lawyers will benefit.

 

[Jay]

It may take a bit of time......during that time it would be wise to play the currency markets, playing the American, Canadian and new Quebec (Frank?) off of each other.

I'm always thinking monetarily. Oh well, someone has too.

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Maritimes Future afte

If you play those three, you'll lose. Which brings us to the US. Instability for us means instability for them. How will they react? Not well, I'm guessing.

 

[Wetcoast40]

Re: RE: Maritimes Future afte

If Quebec is cut right off, I think the Maritimes will likely either become their own nation, driven by their new-found oil wealth; or become part of the USA.

[/quote]

I can't agree. Firstly, their Oil reserves are unlikely to be substantial (see Hibernia field and North Sea Oil). Secondly, they have no substantial base industry to form the economic core of an economy. The Atlantic Provinces are made up of two Islands and a semi-detached Penninsula along with Mainland New Brunswick. Not a viable option in my opinion. I lived in Halifax-Dartmouth for six years in the sixties and traveled extensively in the area. A lovely place to live with wonderful people, but an economic lightweight.

 

[cub1c]

RE: Maritimes Future afte

Why can't they remain in Canada? Is Canada will abandon them? Why doesn't unity have to depend on geographical position?

Yes there is a lot of French there, and I know some. Those that I know envy our independance project and would be willing to join us! But my guess is that it's not the majority.

Yes there is a lot to do after a separation. But what an exciting adventure!

 

[cub1c]

Also keep in mind that Quebec is a major (and growing) energy supplier to Ontario and to the eastern seaboard of the US.

You didn't mention CLEAN energy

 

[jackd]

The Maritimes/Atlantic provinces could very well stay part of Canada.
Look at Alaska and Hawaii. They are hundreds of miles off the continent and they remain part of the U.S.
Saint Pierre & Miquelon is thousand of miles (km) off France and it remains part of France.
Rev: I don't think the changes will be as complex as you predict.
Trade: Quebec major partner is the New England (84% of exports from Quebec). The New England customers have chosen Quebec, not because we are smart or nice and clean, but because we have the products they need at a price they are willing to pay. Quebec has some very good cards in his hand to keep dealing with New England (they need our electricity.)
Currency: The ROC would most likely want (if not need to) Quebec to keep the $CAN as the local currency. Any country would hurt badly economically if they were to loose 25% of its GDP and population resulting from the split and international traders would most likely shy away from the $CAN, resulting in a very sharp decline in value for the $CAN on international markets.
Labrador: I don't think Quebec will ever try to re-open the Labrador territorial dispute.
IJC: As Quebec would own a fairly large span of water bordering the ROC, I think Quebec would become de-facto a IJC member.
Quebec borders: What we have is what we get. International laws are very clear on this issue.
Quebec (as a province) does not sell electricity to the U.S. and Ontario. The sales contract is with Hydro-Quebec, a crown corporation. These contracts do not need to be re-negotiated and I doubt very much the U.S. (new England states) would walk away from it in the event of a separation of Quebec. They need it and for the time being, have very few alternatives unless they built new power generating stations (coal, oil, or nuclear).
This has not been widely publicized, but back in 1994-1995, prior to the last referendum, a lot of preparation work had been done with several foreign countries (including the U.S.) and world organizations (UN, World Bank, NORAD,) and in preparation for a successful referendum. Complex financial and political arrangements had been put together to be able to react to possible catastrophic scenarios the day after the referendum.
The Separation is not only a dream, it had to be a well thought and planned business, social, international venture where experts in various fields have put a lot of work and have looked at many angles.

 

[missile]

Just one little argument here: Newfoundland and Labrador are one and the same entity and they own the Power Generating Systems that gave you the cheap power that you resell to New England. The latest premier of Newfoundland is a far harder bargainer than the sap who made the first electricity deal with Quebec. Good Luck on having any Nfld Power in the near future.

 

[Reverend Blair]

You didn't mention CLEAN energy

It sells for the same rate. Clean is good though...Quebec and Manitoba should form an OPEC-like cartel to maximize our clean electricity profits. :wink:

Look at Alaska and Hawaii. They are hundreds of miles off the continent and they remain part of the U.S.
Saint Pierre & Miquelon is thousand of miles (km) off France and it remains part of France.

They do not face the same pressures that the Maritimes face though.

Trade: Quebec major partner is the New England (84% of exports from Quebec). The New England customers have chosen Quebec, not because we are smart or nice and clean, but because we have the products they need at a price they are willing to pay. Quebec has some very good cards in his hand to keep dealing with New England (they need our electricity.)

That trade relationship is currently governed by NAFTA. Quebec would have to negotiate its way in not just with the US, but with Canada and Mexico.

Currency: The ROC would most likely want (if not need to) Quebec to keep the $CAN as the local currency. Any country would hurt badly economically if they were to loose 25% of its GDP and population resulting from the split and international traders would most likely shy away from the $CAN, resulting in a very sharp decline in value for the $CAN on international markets.

But that would leave Quebec short of one of the main tools of managing its economy. Under those circumstances it may choose to create its own currency or adopt the USD or Euro.

While I would like to see them keep the CDN dollar, I don't think it's guaranteed. There would be pressure from some factions in Canada to keep it from becoming official and, depending on what it looked like the economy was likely to do, factions within Quebec that would be pushing for the other options.

IJC: As Quebec would own a fairly large span of water bordering the ROC, I think Quebec would become de-facto a IJC member.

A de facto member is not a voting member. Again, it would have to be negotiated.

Quebec borders: What we have is what we get. International laws are very clear on this issue.

They are also quite clear on the self-determination of aboriginal peoples, who are likely to want to remain within Canada because that's who they've signed treaties with. those aboriginal peoples have valid claims to much of the territory where your energy comes from, btw.

Quebec (as a province) does not sell electricity to the U.S. and Ontario. The sales contract is with Hydro-Quebec, a crown corporation. These contracts do not need to be re-negotiated and I doubt very much the U.S. (new England states) would walk away from it in the event of a separation of Quebec. They need it and for the time being, have very few alternatives unless they built new power generating stations (coal, oil, or nuclear).

Again, trade with the US is governed through NAFTA. You would need to negotiate.

 

[DasFX]

Re: RE: Maritimes Future afte

Why can't they remain in Canada? Is Canada will abandon them? Why doesn't unity have to depend on geographical position?

Being geographically separated by about 1000 km is a big deal. Having to pass through a foreign country to reach the rest of one's country is not likely to a viable choice. It didn't work for Pakistan. I know Russia has a tiny piece of it separated by the Baltic States, but it doesn't play a significant role in the country.

Canada will not abandon them; they will choose their own destiny. Most likely, they will be forced to join the US. The rest of Canada will eventually fragment as well, and then be absorbed by the US. Finally Quebec too will be absorbed into the US and we will be countrymen and women once again.

Yes there is a lot of French there, and I know some. Those that I know envy our independance project and would be willing to join us! But my guess is that it's not the majority.

According to the 1980 referendum and 1995 referendum, it isn't the majority in Quebec either.

 

[DasFX]

The Maritimes/Atlantic provinces could very well stay part of Canada.
Look at Alaska and Hawaii. They are hundreds of miles off the continent and they remain part of the U.S.
Saint Pierre & Miquelon is thousand of miles (km) off France and it remains part of France.

Good examples, but different circumstances.

Alaska is very valuable to America, both in defense and energy reserves. Had Russia not existed and had there been no oil, I think it would been a part of Canada. Hawaii served a militaristic purpose and was offered statehood to ward off its own independence movement.

Most other US possessions are merely for a military advantage.

As for St. Pierre and Miquelon. It is not a full fledge department in the French government, it is like a colony. It has cost France very little to maintain it, and it had great importance before as it provided French access to the Grand Banks fishery.

The Canadian Maritimes are valuable and Canada would not openly give them up, but the Maritimers themselves may opt out to join the neighbouring US.

 

[jamie]

Wow, rev., I always wanted to live in PEI but forgo leaving the US, you mean I might get to have my cake and eat it too?? :lol:

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Maritimes Future afte

I hope not, Jamie. I'd really like to see Quebec stay in Canada. If it doesn't, I'd like to see the Maritimes remain part of this country. It is far from clear what would happen though.

 

[cub1c]

According to the 1980 referendum and 1995 referendum, it isn't the majority in Quebec either.

40-50-...

Am I the only one realizing that our world in general has changed A LOT since 1995?

 

[Numure]

Re: RE: Maritimes Future after Quebec Separation

Just one little argument here: Newfoundland and Labrador are one and the same entity and they own the Power Generating Systems that gave you the cheap power that you resell to New England. The latest premier of Newfoundland is a far harder bargainer than the sap who made the first electricity deal with Quebec. Good Luck on having any Nfld Power in the near future.

That dam, provides us with only a minuscule amount of our power.

 

[Numure]

They are also quite clear on the self-determination of aboriginal peoples, who are likely to want to remain within Canada because that's who they've signed treaties with. those aboriginal peoples have valid claims to much of the territory where your energy comes from, btw.

Thats a technicality. Once a referendum is passed, negociations would start with does Nations. Right now, it would be illegal for Québec to negotiate anything without Federal Approval. The PQ and BQ, have made it clear many times that we shall do things within the confines of the Canadian Constitution and Internationnal laws.