Little to no effect from “elbowgate”
Liberals With Half the Vote
In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 2271 Canadian voters, one half would vote Liberal if an election were held today (49%), while one third would vote Conservative (32%) and as few as one tenth will vote for the NDP (10%). This is comparable to findings seen last month, with the exception that the Conservatives have seen a slight uptick in their support (from 29% in May) while the Liberals have seen a slight decrease in theirs (from 52% in May). The NDP support levels have not changed (May, 2016 - 11%).
Liberals are dominant across the country except in Alberta and the prairies. In Atlantic Canada, they have well more than half the vote (58%) to just more than one quarter for the Conservatives (28%). The NDP do not place (10%). In Quebec, Liberals have more than half the vote (53%), the Conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois are tied at about one fifth (17% each), and the NDP does not place (9%). In Ontario, one half will vote Liberal (51%) while the Conservatives do relatively well (36%). The NDP do not contend (9%). In the prairies, the Conservatives lead (49%) and the Liberals are second (35%). Here, where the party was born, the NDP is not a contender (9%). In Alberta alone do the Conservatives have majority support (59%), while the Liberals have a third (32%). The federal NDP does not figure in this province (4%). In BC, Liberals have half the vote (49%), well more than the Conservatives (29%). The NDP score their highest vote share, almost a fifth, here (17%).
Among those who voted NDP in the recent federal election, as many as 4-in-10 will now vote Liberal (43%), actually more than would vote NDP again (42%).
Liberals would take a two thirds majority
If these results are projected up to seats in the House of Commons, the Liberals would take 68%, well more than a supermajority (230 seats), while the Conservatives would settle for 98 seats. The NDP would capture as few as 9 seats, thereby losing official party status, while the Green Party would seat one member, their leader.
Prime Minister Trudeau’s approval sees no change since “elbowgate”
Prime Minister Trudeau has the approval of more than half the electorate (57%), and his net favourability rating (approve minus disapprove) is a sterling +24. These levels of approval are exactly the same as those noted in May (57%, +24), before he supposedly squandered his goodwill in the scuffle which has become known as “elbowgate”. Trudeau has almost universal appeal among Liberal voters (93% approval). Rona Ambrose has seen her approval improve slightly since May (from 31% to 34%), as has her net score (+5 to +7). Six-in-ten Conservative voters approve of Ms. Ambrose (60%), while about one sixth do not (15%). Tom Mulcair has seen his approval decline very slightly since last month (from 36% to 34%), while his net score has declined from +5 to -4. Two thirds of New Democrats approve of Mr. Mulcair (64%), while about one fifth do not (17%).
Read more at: The Forum Pollâ„¢ - Liberals With Half the Vote
Copyright ©Forum Research Inc.
Liberals With Half the Vote
In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 2271 Canadian voters, one half would vote Liberal if an election were held today (49%), while one third would vote Conservative (32%) and as few as one tenth will vote for the NDP (10%). This is comparable to findings seen last month, with the exception that the Conservatives have seen a slight uptick in their support (from 29% in May) while the Liberals have seen a slight decrease in theirs (from 52% in May). The NDP support levels have not changed (May, 2016 - 11%).
Liberals are dominant across the country except in Alberta and the prairies. In Atlantic Canada, they have well more than half the vote (58%) to just more than one quarter for the Conservatives (28%). The NDP do not place (10%). In Quebec, Liberals have more than half the vote (53%), the Conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois are tied at about one fifth (17% each), and the NDP does not place (9%). In Ontario, one half will vote Liberal (51%) while the Conservatives do relatively well (36%). The NDP do not contend (9%). In the prairies, the Conservatives lead (49%) and the Liberals are second (35%). Here, where the party was born, the NDP is not a contender (9%). In Alberta alone do the Conservatives have majority support (59%), while the Liberals have a third (32%). The federal NDP does not figure in this province (4%). In BC, Liberals have half the vote (49%), well more than the Conservatives (29%). The NDP score their highest vote share, almost a fifth, here (17%).
Among those who voted NDP in the recent federal election, as many as 4-in-10 will now vote Liberal (43%), actually more than would vote NDP again (42%).
Liberals would take a two thirds majority
If these results are projected up to seats in the House of Commons, the Liberals would take 68%, well more than a supermajority (230 seats), while the Conservatives would settle for 98 seats. The NDP would capture as few as 9 seats, thereby losing official party status, while the Green Party would seat one member, their leader.
Prime Minister Trudeau’s approval sees no change since “elbowgate”
Prime Minister Trudeau has the approval of more than half the electorate (57%), and his net favourability rating (approve minus disapprove) is a sterling +24. These levels of approval are exactly the same as those noted in May (57%, +24), before he supposedly squandered his goodwill in the scuffle which has become known as “elbowgate”. Trudeau has almost universal appeal among Liberal voters (93% approval). Rona Ambrose has seen her approval improve slightly since May (from 31% to 34%), as has her net score (+5 to +7). Six-in-ten Conservative voters approve of Ms. Ambrose (60%), while about one sixth do not (15%). Tom Mulcair has seen his approval decline very slightly since last month (from 36% to 34%), while his net score has declined from +5 to -4. Two thirds of New Democrats approve of Mr. Mulcair (64%), while about one fifth do not (17%).
Read more at: The Forum Pollâ„¢ - Liberals With Half the Vote
Copyright ©Forum Research Inc.