Liberals admit huge defeat in Quebec.

[no1important]

RE: Liberals admit huge d

Don'y forget who controls the Senate, they could make Harpers life miserable if they wanted to. But Harper is not even even going to get a minority...

 

[Reverend Blair]

You are correct on SSM. It wouldn't pass, but it is not a confidence matter.

Actually the SSM issue is serious enough that a bill of non-confidence could very well be introduced over it, Colpy. It doesn't have to be a money bill for that to happen.

Seriously, In a minority government situation, His GST will go through, and I think he could push through the daycare plan as well.

Every opposition party is against the GST plan for various reasons. Since it's only one percent it doesn't do much, and the other percentage point is way off in the future so it's unlikely it will ever happen.

As a bill, it would fail.

Your idea that the Conservatives could possibly win a majority government is ridiculous, Colpy. It's doubtful they can even manage a minority and a stretch that they can get a minority where one party holds the balance of power.

There won't be an election in 2006 if the CPC wins a minority. Unlikely an election until the CPC pulls their own plug in 3 years or so.

There would very likely be another election in 2006 if Harper starts trying to put his legislation through. It will certainly happen if the not so hidden agenda of the Conservatives starts showing up. There are a host of issues. Abortion (a not so private member's bill; SSM; native issues; BMD; taxes; the environment to name just a few) where the Conservatives are out of touch with the other parties.

Many of those are divisive enough, but Harper would also have to open up the constitution for his EEE Senate to go through, which would be brutal for Canada at this point. The BQ and PQ would use it to further their cause, Atlantic Canada would absolutely freak, Ontario would refuse to sit at the table, Manitoba and Saskatchewan (likely along with BC) would sit on the fence, and Alberta would try to dictate to the rest of the country.

Why would the Bloq defeat a minority conservative governmnet?

Because the anti-Quebec rhetoric flows from where Harper is strongest, Harper would slash spending in Quebec, and for all of Duceppe's talk of fiscal inequity, Quebec gets more back than they pay in.

The fate of the government will be entirely in the BQ's hands.

More likely the government will need the support of both the BQ and the NDP...two left-leaning parties.

Also, legislation isn't suddenly sprung upon parliament. The CPC aren't going to stupid enough to force the BQ to vote against it in parliament and if there is a piece of legislation defeated, the BQ will not vote against the CPC in a non-confidence vote. Why would they? what would they gain?

Harper keeps promising to enact his legislation immediately. That generally means within a year in Parliamentary terms. The BQ has nothing to lose...they are a regional party in a federal forum to demonstrate that federalism doesn't work.

This isn't just my analysis but borrowed from all the commentators I hear of French Radio Canada including Chantelle Hebert and others.

Mine is based on what many commentators have said, listening to the spinners within the parties, and having watched these things for as long as I can remember.

If the Conservatives win a minority, there will almost certainly be an election within a year. There is no way that they can both please their base and the rest of Canada without introducing bills that the other parties cannot support.

 

[Calberty]

Re: RE: Liberals admit huge d

Don'y forget who controls the Senate, they could make Harpers life miserable if they wanted to. But Harper is not even even going to get a minority...

I 'doubt' Harper will get a minority. Two things would have to happen...a bump in CPC polls in Ontario 5 points AND an unmotivated Liberal base that doesn't have a good turnout. In the last couple elections, however, Ontario has voted higher percent for the Liberals that the polls indicate. Will Ontario Liberals voting 'against' the CPC be a big enough motivator this time?

 

[MMMike]

If the Conservatives get a minority, we'll be facing two elections in 2006. Harper's policies are at odds with all three of the other parties and he has already shown himself to be incapable of compromising.

Why, because the power hungry NDP won't try to make parliament work? They'll be punished at the polls if they prematurely bring down a Harper minority government.

That's true No1. Harper's people will piss a lot of Canadians off very quickly if they get into office. So will promises, because he won't be able to pass a lot of them. His daycare plan won't go through. His GST cut won't got through. His SSM marriage bill won't go through.

GST most certainly will pass. It is very popular with the voters - who wants to be the party to vote against an immediate tax cut?? And as you well know, there is no SSM marriage bill. Daycare will be a toss-up. Personally, I think it'd be better to increase the basic amount, and only people below a certain income qualify. That may be a compromise that the other parties will go for. Except Layton who is in the pocket of the union fatcats: they're the ones who would really love to see a huge new state-run daycare program.

 

[Reverend Blair]

Why, because the power hungry NDP won't try to make parliament work? They'll be punished at the polls if they prematurely bring down a Harper minority government.

It's more likely that the Bloc will take a good chunk of the blame, except from their perspective it will be credit. Most of the rest of Canada will place the blame on Harper for introducing policies that they don't support.

GST most certainly will pass. It is very popular with the voters - who wants to be the party to vote against an immediate tax cut??

Because all three of the other parties will be pointing out that it's only 1%...hardly anything. Outside of the partisan spin of a campaign, it's a very weak policy. It costs the Canadian government a lot, but doesn't give much return to the Canadian people.

Harper won't have the anti-Sponsorship spin to count on anymore.

And as you well know, there is no SSM marriage bill.

He has said he will introduce it almost immediately should he form government.

Daycare will be a toss-up.

When there are no more spaces created and people still can't afford the spaces that do exist, they'll be screaming for Harper's government to be brought down.

Harper isn't going to get a minority anyway though. The worst of Sponsorship is behind the Liberals, and the big red machine will be getting cranked up after Christmas. The NDP will be going harder after Christmas too, which will bring Harper down in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and BC.

Harper has been running his ads pretty much full out, spending his corporate donations like a drunken sailor. The other parties have been holding back on that until after x-mas. Money is going to be a factor for all of the parties this time around because of the long campaign, but Harper has spending a lot in this first leg. All that and there hasn't been one single poll showing him in the lead.

 

[MMMike]

It's more likely that the Bloc will take a good chunk of the blame, except from their perspective it will be credit. Most of the rest of Canada will place the blame on Harper for introducing policies that they don't support.

By definition if the Conservatives win a minority government that means more people support their policies than those of the other parties.

Because all three of the other parties will be pointing out that it's only 1%...hardly anything. Outside of the partisan spin of a campaign, it's a very weak policy. It costs the Canadian government a lot, but doesn't give much return to the Canadian people.

How can you possibly say that Rev????????? That 'big cost' to the Canadian government goes directly into the pockets of hard-working Canadians, where it somehow becomes small?? By that measurement, no tax cut would ever see the light of day. Of course, I forgot, you're a tax & spend guy. It would probably be better for the goverment to keep the money and decide how to spend the money. Because big brother knows best.

Harper isn't going to get a minority anyway though. The worst of Sponsorship is behind the Liberals, and the big red machine will be getting cranked up after Christmas. The NDP will be going harder after Christmas too, which will bring Harper down in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and BC.

There have been no major changes since the last election except: Liberal corruption has been laid bare for all to see, Harper is scary will be a harder sell the second time around, the Conservatives discipline and campaign strategy is vastly better than last year.

Harper has been running his ads pretty much full out, spending his corporate donations like a drunken sailor. The other parties have been holding back on that until after x-mas. Money is going to be a factor for all of the parties this time around because of the long campaign, but Harper has spending a lot in this first leg. All that and there hasn't been one single poll showing him in the lead.

The Conservatives have a much better financial position than any of the other parties, including Big Red. For the reasons mentioned above, I expect the Cons to do much better this time around.

 

[Reverend Blair]

By definition if the Conservatives win a minority government that means more people support their policies than those of the other parties.

No. The other parties have enough policies in common that they can work together. Even the platform that the Liberals run on (not the ones they rule by) is always closer to the NDP than the CPC. The Conservatives are the odd party out, policy-wise.

The Conservatives would be able to work with the Liberals on some issues...mostly economic...but there is so much animosity between the two parties at this point that that is highly unlikely because compromise would be needed.

How can you possibly say that Rev????????? That 'big cost' to the Canadian government goes directly into the pockets of hard-working Canadians, where it somehow becomes small?

I didn't make it so small. It's Harper that's only offering 1%. For people just scraping by, that's about $100 a year...less than a pack of smokes a month. For somebody making $40-60K, it amounts to about $200 a year or less than $20 a month...about a dozen beer.

There have been no major changes since the last election except: Liberal corruption has been laid bare for all to see

That was a kick in the nuts for Harper, wasn't it? Especially the part where Paul Martin was exonerated.

The scandal started losing its power as an election issue almost immediately.

Harper is scary will be a harder sell the second time around, the Conservatives discipline and campaign strategy is vastly better than last year.

Is it? There's a man running around Anne McLellan's riding handing out flyers with a picture of an aborted fetus on them. Imagine your kid pulling that out of the mailbox.

Harper's eight year old speech is likely to make a bit more news and there are sure to be others like it that will show up. He's made speeches and written position papers on everything from the need to kill the Canada Health Act to limiting immigration to adopting the American dollar. He has a closet full of skeletons and the Liberals know where the keys are.

Expect a few stories showing the Conservatives as a bunch of pro-American fascists who would take away human rights, slash the social safety net down to nothing, seize control of your wife's womb, and eat the kitten that you got your daughter for x-mas. Most of it will come out of the Conservatives own mouths.

The Conservatives have a much better financial position than any of the other parties, including Big Red. For the reasons mentioned above, I expect the Cons to do much better this time around.

It's not that much better. Do you have any idea how much national TV time costs? And it hasn't done what it was supposed to. The only reason to spend that much early in a campaign is to build momentum. Harper has failed to do that.