Liberal and NDP support falling

[crit13]

And these results were BEFORE the publication ban was lifted!!

I can understand the Liberal drop but I still can't figure out why the NDP support is dropping. Maybe it's because Canadians are finally starting to wake up.

Poll finds public support for Liberals slipping
CTV.ca News Staff

Support for the Liberals has fallen to its lowest level since the last weeks of the June election, finds a new poll that was conducted just as action at the Gomery inquiry was heating up.

The Ipsos-Reid poll for CTV and The Globe and Mail was conducted on the two days before April 7 -- the day the publication ban on testimony heard at the Gomery inquiry was lifted -- and then again that night.

The survey found that if an election were held tomorrow, 34 per cent of decided voters would vote for the Liberals, down three percentage points since February 2005, when Ipsos-Reid conducted its last poll.

Thirty per cent would vote for the Conservative Party and 15 per cent would vote for the NDP.

(In the June 28 2004 election" Liberals received 36 per cent of the popular vote, while Conservatives took 30 per cent and the NDP 16 per cent.)

Within Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois would get 41 per cent of the decided vote, compared to just 29 per cent for the Liberals. For the Liberals, that's a five percentage point drop from February.

Nationally, the Bloc would get 10 per cent of the decided vote.

Of the remaining voters, seven per cent would vote for the Green Party, and four per cent would choose "Other." Eleven per cent of respondents said they "don't know" who they would vote for.

With new corruption allegations heard at the sponsorship inquiry, it remains to be seen if those poll numbers will change.

The greatest shift regionally was seen in Alberta. There, the Conservative Party has seen a 14 percentage point shift in its popularity, to 57 per cent, while the Liberals have seen a 16-point drop, to just 13 per cent.

But in Saskatchewan/ Manitoba, the Liberals have gained 12 points of support, to 36 per cent, while the NDP have lost 14 points to 11 per cent.

In Ontario, where Conservatives would need to gain seats in order to form a government, the gap has narrowed. The Conservative Party has picked up six points and has climbed to 34 per cent of the decided vote, while the Liberal Party has dropped five points and now sits at 38 per cent.

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Liberal and NDP suppo

So the Bloc gets Quebec, the Conservatives get Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba stay basically the same, and the Conservatives lose Ontario again.

 

[mrmom2]

And BC gets no say in anything once again .I'm with cub1c to hell with Ottawa

 

[dukee]

Hmmmm.... interesting.

The NDP's fall in the prairie provinces is a bit of a surprise. This could be one of the reasons that the parties are gearing up for a provincial election here in Saskatchewan.

The Liberals fall in Ontario is about where I would expect it before the ban was lifted. The post-lift numbers should make things even more interesting. If the Conservatives move into that magic 40% range, I would expect an election call shortly.

The Liberals will have a very hard time fighting an election, with the party machinery in dissarray. I will also expect the tools needed to fight an election (donations, vollunteers to knock on doors and answer phones, a sympathetic media) will all dry up.

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Liberal and NDP suppo

The Conservatives are stagnant in the polls overall. They've been unable to capatalize on this.

I expect you'll see the NDP support picking up now that Layton and Blaikie have gone after the Liberals. Blaikie got an ovation in the House from everyone but the Liberals. He did it without making the shrill noises that emanate from the Conservative side of the house.

 

[dukee]

Momentum is beginning to build for the Conservatives. English Canada has been all but oblivious to what has been coming out of the inquiry.

That has changed in the last couple of days.

When even the Toronto Star is predicting a Conservative breakthrough, you know the winds of change are in the air.

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Liberal and NDP suppo

I don't think so, Dukee. The Conservative numbers aren't going up and the Environics Poll from April 8 doesn't show much movement at all. You don't see that much movement in a day. Combine with the man in the street interviews that show more ignorance and apathy than anger, and people's fear of the Conservatives and you still have a Liberal minority government.

 

[Gonzo]

I don’t believe that momentum is building for the Conservatives. That’s what they said last election, and the right wing media tried to build it up. The Liberals will say that they called this inquiry, and that the Martin government is not Chretien. The Conservatives got away with murder last time they were in power. The sponsorship scandal is nothing compared to Mulroney's government. He lost one cabinet minister on average per year to scandal when he was in power. Canada is typically left leaning, and they usualy vote Liberal just to keep Conservatives out of power. Look at the history of this country. Liberals have dominated power. It wont affect how I vote. The party I vote for never gets into power.

 

[dukee]

Re: RE: Liberal and NDP suppo

From now on, everytime the pulbic reads in the paper, or hears in the news, that Liberals = Crooks, it will start sticking with more and more people.

What were once whispers tucked away on page F14 are now fullblown, frontpage stories. Up to this point, few Canadians were thinking about politics, let alone changing their political affiliations. Paul Martin was simply the guy who brought U2 to Ottawa. Now, they are going to see Martin stammering like Porky Pig every night on the news.

The Conservatives came within a hair of taking Ontario last election. If you look at the polls from that period, Ontario was quite prepared to vote tory. With the Liberals being in the damaged state that they are now, it would be quite feasible for the Conservatives to regain that same level of support.

I do agree with you that the NDP will make gains on this as well. If they were smart, they would follow the U.K.'s Labour Party's lead and move their party towards the middle. If that were to happen, between the Conservatives tearing them down from the right, and labour from the left, there would be nothing left of the Liberal Party.

 

[crit13]

Ontario is certainly ready to take Ontario away from the Liberals. We are immensely upset at McWimpy's policies and blatant lies.

Not to mention that it's easier to count his "kept" promises than it is to count his broken ones.

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Liberal and NDP suppo

We'll see. Every poll I've seen shows the Conservatives stuck at 30% in the polls. That's loser-land.

I don't think Gomery has legs in the public eye either. It's a three year old scandal and Martin is the one who called the Enquiry in the first place. The Liberals might lose a few seats, but there is nothing to indicate that the Conservatives are making substantial gains outside of ridings they already held.

 

[no1important]

RE: Liberal and NDP suppo

The governing parties are always usually down in the polls until the "election writ" is called.

Gomery is not really a big issue out here like it is back east. When the election comes people will see the conservatives for what they are. They have so many crackpots they are bound to shoot their mouths off again like last time and in turn that will cost them votes.

 

[dukee]

Re: RE: Liberal and NDP suppo

The governing parties are always usually down in the polls until the "election writ" is called.

You might want to check to see how the Liberals faired going into last years election. Over the course of the election their numbers took a nose dive.

Going into the next election, everytime the public hears Liberal = Crook, they will be less likely to vote for them.

 

[dukee]

Re: RE: Liberal and NDP suppo

We'll see. Every poll I've seen shows the Conservatives stuck at 30% in the polls. That's loser-land.

There are only 4 points separating them from the Liberals, and this is before the publication ban was lifted. Conservative votes are also more concentrated, which translates into more seats.

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Liberal and NDP suppo

You're picking one poll, Dukee. That's a fool's game. The spread was some place between 4 and 8 points, depending on the poll.

The Liberal's dropping means nothing without a corresponding rise in the Conservative numbers. That isn't happening.

More importantly, we are in a situation where it's necessary to look at the polls riding by riding. The Conservatives gain nothing by that criteria.

 

[Gonzo]

I honestly don’t think the conservatives will get into power. Martin called this inquiry, which was a stupid thing to do. Mulroney got away with allot worse, and he hasn't paid for it. He supports Harper. Pretty hypocritical.

 

[Scape]

RE: Liberal and NDP suppo

Wait 6 months and then poll the effect of the inquiry. I'll bet this will do damage to the Liberals but not as much as Harper will scare the rest of Canada. He is a Mulroney clone, give him a chance and he'll sell Canada as much as he can as fast as he can to the US, have us at war with the Muslim world and sign us on to BM'D'. All major policy losers to sane Canadians. Given that time frame I doubt that Harper supporters won't drop the ball somewhere and be seen at some Klan rally or try to mix religion and politics. The crowd he runs with are not a creative bunch.

 

[Tesroc]

Re: RE: Liberal and NDP support falling

And BC gets no say in anything once again .I'm with cub1c to hell with Ottawa

Dang rights. Why exactly do we need Ottawa or eastern Canada?

 

[peapod]

Perfectly said scape.

 

[crit13]

The Liberal's dropping means nothing without a corresponding rise in the Conservative numbers. That isn't happening.

We'll see. Every poll I've seen shows the Conservatives stuck at 30% in the polls. That's loser-land.

So much for your theory Rev. Forget about the Conservatives trying to catch the Liberals, they have an 11.2% LEAD!! Expect that gap to widen as more and more Liberal "activites" come to light.

An EKOS poll published today in the Toronto Star suggests that if an election were held today, only 25 per cent of respondents nationwide would vote for the Liberals. That is compared to 36.2 per cent for the Conservatives.

The poll also suggests that Liberal support has dropped in its stronghold province of Ontario, where the Conservatives now lead with 40 per cent. The Liberals have 33 per cent support.

The EKOS poll was conducted between April 7 -- the day the sponsorship testimony was made public -- and April 10. Results are considered accurate to within 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Those results are similar to those of an Ipsos-Reid poll released Saturday, which also suggests the sponsorship scandal is likely driving down Liberal popularity.