Latest Polls

[Jersay]

Ekos, January 17th,

Liberal: 27.2

Conservative: 36.9

NDP: 19.6

BLOC: 11.0

Green: 4.8

SES Research January 17

Liberal: 32

Conservative: 37

NDP: 18

BLOC: 10

Green: 4

Now these polls are just getting plan stupid. First you had the Stategic Council with an 18-point COnservative lead. And now this. However, I am beginning to trust the other ones and not the Strategic Council one. I think something extremely fishy is going on.

 

[Toro]

That Strategic Council poll is a rogue poll.

You'll notice that the Tories are around that 36-39% range in the last several polls while the Liberals have been in the 27-30% area. That's where the vote is going to wind up. There has been very little movement.

 

[I think not]

It most likely has to do with the methodology being used Jersay. Besides, the only poll that will count for you guys is the one taken on the 23rd.

 

[Jersay]

Then something is wrong with the Strategic Council because there last five polls have been 40+

Now what I see happening at most is that the Conservatives are around 35-38 and the Liberals are 26-29, and the NDP is inching towards 20.

 

[FiveParadox]

I have found, in my opinion, that the most accurate and/or reliable poll is, in fact, that done with the co-operation of CPAC and SES Research.

 

[Jersay]

Agreed, however Ekos seems to be okay.

 

[#juan]

Latest CPAC/SES poll

Canada Decided Voters (Tracking ended January 17, 2006)

CP 36.9% (+8)

LIB 31.5% (-5)

NDP 17.6% (+3)

BQ 10.0% (-4)

GP 4.0(-1)

*15.9% of Canadians were undecided (NC)

 

[Jersay]

16% of Canadians undecided is still a big number. Hopefully, no one has forgotten that it is still anyone's game.

 

[Dexter Sinister]

Hardly anybody mentions the undecided voters, which gives a false sense of what the polls are really saying. It's more revealing to look at the numbers for all voters:

CP 31.0%
Lib 26.5%
NDP 14.8%
BQ 8.4%
GP 3.4%
Und 15.9%

Trumpeting only the figures for decided voters, as most of the media do, is equivalent to distributing the undecided voters over the parties in the same percentages as the decided voters, which ain't necessarily so. There are enough undecided voters to give a thumping big majority to the Conservatives if they all vote that way, at least a solid majority to the Liberals if they all vote that way, and even a shot at official opposition status to the NDP if they all go left. Highly improbable outcomes, I know, but if the undecided voters don't split approximately the same way the decided voters do, and there's no reason to assume they will, all those pollsters can end up looking pretty silly. And of course we all know the BQ numbers apply only in Quebec. As Jersay observed, it's still up for grabs.

It's still too close to call because of that big undecided vote. Also, if this is the standard "plus or minus 3 percentage points 19 times out of 20" sample, that means the pollsters are 95% sure the actual Conservative vote is somewhere between 28 and 34%, the Liberal vote is between 23.5 and 29.5%, and so forth. And the undecided vote might be as high as 18.9%. Plus there's a 5% chance the numbers are what a former high school teacher of mine would have called concentrated essence of hogwash, so don't bet the farm on anything yet.

 

[Jersay]

Yeah, with 16% of Canadians still undecided, I don't think anyone should celebrate just yet.

 

[Triple_R]

Oh, please. Even the mainstream news networks are admitting that it's just a question of whether it's a Conservative minority, or a Conservative majority.

Even Jack Layton, leader of the NDP, is essentially conceding that the CPCs have won (i.e. "The Liberals will not be able to stop the Conservatives this time!" he said to soft NDP voters).

My view is that you have three polls telling three different stories. Given that fact, it's probably safest to go with the one inbetween the other two - namely, the Ekos poll. The Ekos poll has the Conservatives 10 pts ahead of the Liberals. With 5 days left, that's it. It's over. Particularly with the Liberals continuing to be gaffe campaign central (thank you, Buzz Hargrove! ).

I'm almost going to miss this election campaign once it's over. The Liberals have been an excellent source of comedy with their unbelievably bad/gaffe-filled campaign.

 

[FiveParadox]

It would be funny to see the Liberal Party of Canada pull off another minority. Many users of this forum would be "stunned," to say the least.

 

[Toro]

Including the Liberals.

 

[I think not]

As opposed to hard core NDP'ers thinking the sky will fall on their head?

 

[FiveParadox]

Yes, I would be surprised to see the Liberals win this (even as a Liberal). lol

 

[Triple_R]

FiveParadox - It wouldn't be funny; it would be disastrous. Another Liberal government would all but ensure a rise of seperatist support in Quebec - Quebec is obviously rejecting the Liberal party, as virtually all the polls indicate. It would also create seperatist sentiment in Alberta.

In sharp contrast, a Conservative government (which would almost certainly include MPs from every signal province in Canada - something that the Liberals may very well not be able to claim after this election) would as such serve as a national unifier (particularly if they can get 5 or more MPs elected out of Quebec - quite possible given recent poll numbers).

I wouldn't be stunned by a Liberal turnabout. I would be appalled, to be frank. How anybody can vote for such an obviously incompetent party (Martin accusing Layton of being "against a woman's right to choose", Martin approving the military ad, Martin and his party failing to even keep their story straight on the military ad, new Liberal supporter Buzz Hargrove having the unmitigated delusion and gall to call Stephen Harper a seperatist, etc..., etc... ad naseum, ad infitium) is, with all due respect, beyond me.

 

[I think not]

I still think FiveParadox is right on the issue of the Liberals getting the first shot at forming a government.

 

[Triple_R]

I think not - A moot point given Layton's on the record comments, and Duceppe's mutual animousity with Martin.

 

[I think not]

That's sounds good to me, it's none of my business but I think any party that has governed for 12 years, is 4 years too much. Time for change.

 

[I think not]

EKOS January 21st Poll

Conservative Party of Canada 37.1
Liberal Party of Canada 26.9
NDP 19.5
Bloc Québécois 11.5
Green Party 4.6
Other 0.5
Undecided/declined 16.0
Would not vote 2.4

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