HIGHLIGHTS
- Five-year government bond rates have risen from 0.3% to 1.7% since January 2021. This has had a knock-on effect on mortgage rates.
- The Bank of Canada (BoC) signalled it will start raising short-term interest rates in 2022, as a result of a brighter outlook for the Canadian economy and high inflation.
- Bond markets are pricing in five rate hikes in 2022, Scoatiabank’s forecast is the most optimistic for the economy and projects the Bank of Canada target rate could reach 2% by the end of 2022.
- 5-year mortgage rates are expected to remain low by historical standards, but they are forecast to continue rising.
- Short-term variable interest rates are at their ‘lower bound’ and are not expected to fall any further.
According to a Jan 21 Reuters poll of 31 economists, a majority said the BoC would raise its key interest rate by 0.50% to 0.75% by March 2022. They expected Canada would end the year with the rate at 1.00%.
There are
concerns about inflation which is currently running above 4% and is eroding retirement savings. Generally, lending rates are higher than average inflation.
While low rates were intended to help borrowers weather the economic storm, they also appear to be fueling a real estate boom - and
potentially a housing bubble.
Asset bubbles in real estate and other assets are putting pressure on the BoC and the government to dial down the stimulus.
This article will explain the forecasts for variable (floating) rates and 5-year fixed (locked-in) rates. Keep reading to learn what the big banks are saying about rates.
THE CURRENT SITUATION
Very Low Mortgage Rates
Fixed rates are currently near record lows but they are rising. As mortgage rates rise, they reduce homebuying budgets.
The impact of early rate increases on homebuying budgets will be greater than the subsequent rate increases. Prospective homebuyers can take advantage of this effect by getting a pre-approved mortgage 4 months before making a purchase. By the time they find a place they like, rates may have risen, and competing bidders who didn’t get a pre-approved committed rate might be saddled with smaller homebuying budgets. If your bank doesn’t offer a 4-month rate guarantee with their pre-approval, then talk to a mortgage broker.
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MORTGAGE RATE FORECASTS
Should I Lock in a 5-Year Fixed Rate?
Banks charge extra interest for the privilege of borrowing at a fixed rate. Usually, they charge more the longer the rate is locked in. Is it worth paying extra for their fixed-rate service?
Locking in a 2.70% 5-year fixed mortgage rate will only start benefiting you financially if variable rates begin to climb. Variable rates are expected to rise in early 2022.
I have a variable rate today. Should I lock in now or wait?
Most variable-rate mortgages allow you to lock in anytime. Should you? If you want the security of a locked-in rate, locking-in now seems prudent. Fixed rates have been rising and are expected to rise further....
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