January 12th polls

[Jersay]

Ekos January 12

Liberal: 27.4

Conservative: 38.1

NDP: 18.1

BLOC: 11.5

Green: 4.5

Ekos January 12 (Night only polling)

Liberal: 28.3

Conservative: 37.6

NDP: 18.1

Bloc: 11.6

Green: 3.7

Ipsos-Reid January 12

Liberal: 29

Conservative: 37

NDP: 18

BLOC: 11

Green: 5

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_2006#Opinion_polls

 

[Finder]

I can't see the Liberals resurging hard enough to cut off the CPC. Of course I think we will have an interesting outcome this election.

I still don't think unless the CPC make large gains in Toronto that they will be able to get a magority. Nor do I see them getting too many seats in quebec. You gotta think even though they've stoll some support from the bloc they are still far behind and with the spliting of the fed vote.... well... it may do more harm then good.

I do not see the Liberals holding onto the amount of seats they have now and the NDP may make an upset and take more then a lot people have been thinking. I've seen numbers of 29 NDP seats this election. But this is not enough to keep the liberals in power. It is enough to help the conservatives by the latist seats I've seen predicted for them. We could see a lot of electoral reform from this coming government, both with the Senate and how we elect MP's if the NDP and CPC work together for this coming year.


Anyhow we still have more then enough time for the polls to change and a late liberal resurgance would hurt both the CPC and the NDP greatly enough to change the next government.

Either way I don't see any of the three parties getting over 40% this election.

 

[Jersay]

Nah, but I do hope that the NDP gets over 20% by a big margin or by a small margin. Doesn't matter, but if they do they will have gotten over a hump that they weren't able to do in their 40+ year history.

And I do hope they collect around 35-40 seats just ot have the balance of power.

 

[FiveParadox]

Predicted Results

I would agree that the results for this, the Thirty-ninth General Election, could change on a whim; the electorate is, in my opinion, extremely volatile, and any number of factors could profoundly impact the make-up of the next House of Commons.

(a) If it would appear that the Conservative Party of Canada would be poised to take a majority in the House, then I would assert that a large number of "tentative" supporters of the party would switch to either the NDP or the Grits, in a bid to prevent the Tories from such a powerful mandate.

(b) The electorate is quite volatile and skiddish; if the Honourable Stephen Harper said or did anything that could "scare" the voters, then his support could collapse right out from underneath him; the Leader of the Opposition needs to be quite careful during these last days of the campaign. I would argue that many Canadians are prepared to watch the progress of a minority Conservative Government, but not to "hand over" the reigns to the Tories with a majority.

 

[Hank C]

I sure hope the CPC and the NDP will be able to work together and keep the Liberals unable to sabotage and force another election at least for a few years.

I do not agree jersay that the NDP will get 0ver 35 seats....thats a pipe dream of Laytons......I would be willing to bet they pull out a number in the low 20s, no more than 25 (long shot).

 

[FiveParadox]

Considering the policy differences between the Conservatives and the New Democrats, I cannot honestly foresee any sort of "truce" between the two parties lasting for more than a few months.

Once the Conservatives bring up the issue of same-sex marriage, the Kyoto Accord, or any other big-box item, I would think that the New Democratic support for a Tory Government would collapse practically instantaneously.

 

[Jersay]

I do not agree jersay that the NDP will get 0ver 35 seats....thats a pipe dream of Laytons......I would be willing to bet they pull out a number in the low 20s, no more than 25 (long shot).

I don't know, we will not know the whole story until the "Fat Lady Signs".

However, if the NDP support is strong and they do lets say get 18% of the vote, that is three percent more than last time, and with at least 15+ seats that were lost by 5% or less, that is some seats that could change hands.

And to FiveParadox, hopefully, the NDP will keep to their values and if the Conservatives do try to pass anything too radical they reject it and bring down the government.

 

[Hank C]

I know some pakistani guy from work who is a staunch liberal....the fellow told me he has voted Liberal since he moved to Canada which was sometime during the trudeau years. and we usually have little debates here are there...always friendly. But I was chatting with him yesterday and I was surprised to hear he will not be voting liberal this time around, shocking since just last week he was defending martin and telling me belives in the Liberals and their "values". He seemed agitated and not willing to talk about it, but I have a feeling it might have been the latest Liberal ads contriversey. I didne't bug him too much about it as I did not want to push him back to the Liebrals....however he said he will not be voting at all as he does not like the Torys or the NDP.

 

[Finder]

well the NDP do have over 80 seats which they could win. But I do not think they will. But it's a possibility.

Layton has done a pretty Liberal thing and has asked for Liberal voters to vote NDP. Which in away with how the election is going may help him if voters decide that the Liberal party is about to collasp like that of the PC's in 1993. I do not think this tactic will work well as it has always goen the other way. NDP voters voting Liberal. But with all the bad press with the Liberals..... It may change the whole thing. Really this election is nuts and I don't see things staying the same for more then 24 hours. It seems to me every three or so days soemthing big happens to alter the polling numbers.

I think the best thing to do right now is sit back and wait for the nest big thing to happen. It's now in Harpers court and the best thing for him to do is make sure nothing goes wrong now and not say anything is stupid.

Also if you have noticed the NDP are not attacking the conservatives much... Not as much as they are the liberals. This makes me think that the NDP may be willing with a CPC minority government on common ground issues. I also think that the NDP may also be doing this to weaken the Liberal base and solidify the progressive vote to the NDP. Layton said today that it was time to punish the Liberals and give them "time out". He's hinting that he doesn't expect a Liberal government, minority or other wise. When asked on radio who'd he rather support he wouldn't answer the question and brought forth comments which sounded more like a coup of the liberal party as the only progressive alternative.

1. Conservatives have a pretty big lead.
2. NDP are still aiming at the Liberals who should be there ally in government.
3. I think the NDP are kicking the Liberals in this political game while they are down extead of attacking the conservatives and proping a liberal minority government.

Jack has grown balls and so has the NDP. I think this little game should be fun to watch. It may also change. Maybe the NDP will switch to attacking the conservatives, but for some reason I think they will hammer the libs still.

 

[the caracal kid]

We are more likely to see co-operation between the Bloc and the cons, at least wrt provincial matters. Regretably, it will be an effort that is more likely damaging than benefitial.

I doubt we would see any con-NDP co-operation on major issues. This next parlement could very well be one that accomplishes next to nothing.

 

[I think not]

I'm sure the sky won't fall on the 24th. if the Tories get elected. Keeping one party in power for such a long time and giving them the option for four more years is nuts!

 

[FiveParadox]

I would agree; depending on the make-up of the next Parliament, we could see ourselves in political deadlock — several defeated minority Governments in a row, a failure to acquire supply, and no big legislative measures passed; depending on the nature of the next elected House, we could see Canada enter a very tense period in politics (as if the 38th Parliament wasn't tense enough!).

 

[Jersay]

well the NDP do have over 80 seats which they could win. But I do not think they will. But it's a possibility.

Layton has done a pretty Liberal thing and has asked for Liberal voters to vote NDP. Which in away with how the election is going may help him if voters decide that the Liberal party is about to collasp like that of the PC's in 1993. I do not think this tactic will work well as it has always goen the other way. NDP voters voting Liberal. But with all the bad press with the Liberals..... It may change the whole thing. Really this election is nuts and I don't see things staying the same for more then 24 hours. It seems to me every three or so days soemthing big happens to alter the polling numbers.

I think the best thing to do right now is sit back and wait for the nest big thing to happen. It's now in Harpers court and the best thing for him to do is make sure nothing goes wrong now and not say anything is stupid.

Also if you have noticed the NDP are not attacking the conservatives much... Not as much as they are the liberals. This makes me think that the NDP may be willing with a CPC minority government on common ground issues. I also think that the NDP may also be doing this to weaken the Liberal base and solidify the progressive vote to the NDP. Layton said today that it was time to punish the Liberals and give them "time out". He's hinting that he doesn't expect a Liberal government, minority or other wise. When asked on radio who'd he rather support he wouldn't answer the question and brought forth comments which sounded more like a coup of the liberal party as the only progressive alternative.

1. Conservatives have a pretty big lead.
2. NDP are still aiming at the Liberals who should be there ally in government.
3. I think the NDP are kicking the Liberals in this political game while they are down extead of attacking the conservatives and proping a liberal minority government.

Jack has grown balls and so has the NDP. I think this little game should be fun to watch. It may also change. Maybe the NDP will switch to attacking the conservatives, but for some reason I think they will hammer the libs still.

I do think this is going to be a very good election as it heads towards the end. You have made very good points, and I think the NDP will continue to attack the Liberals because that is the best chance to gain support, for the NDP to get Conservative support that is going out on a limb. I think the NDP might have resigned itself to a Conservative government, who knows, maybe good or bad. Should be interesting to watch, especially on the sovereignty question.

Layton and Harper might have some interesting ideas to keep Quebec in Canada, at least Layton anyway.[/quote]

 

[FiveParadox]

Spirit of Co-operation

Perhaps in a new spirit of co-operation, in an effort to launch a new era of effective governance from the House of Commons, whatever party happens to become (or remain) the Government of Canada should endeavour to appoint one member from each party in the Opposition to become a Minister of the Crown? Perhaps it is time that our parties recognize each others' strengths, and put them all to good use?

 

[Triple_R]

I do get a feeling that there's an awful lot of volatility to these polls.

This much I'm confidant about - if Harper and his party refrains from doing anything stupid the rest of the way, they win. There's no way that I can see the Liberals making up this poll differential barring a gift from the Conservatives. While this electorate is somewhat volatile, I really do have to disagree with FiveParadox on his assessment of what would occur if people thought that a Conservative majority could get elected.

Anybody who fears a Conservative majority so much that this prospect alone would cause them to vote Liberal/NDP wouldn't even be leaning Conservative in the first place. Besides, I think that most Canadians would like to see a majority government this time, just to avoid another election in a couple of years.

Barring a serious Conservative mis-step, the big poll numbers to watch is Liberal vs. NDP. I do get the sense that something is going to significantly change in the polls in the coming week. It's hard to imagine these poll numbers remaining static for a full 10 days. I think that there's huge growth potential for the NDP, but they need to go after the Liberals with a vengeance to achieve it. Jack Layton may already be starting that.

 

[Citizen]

Re: RE: January 12th polls

I sure hope the CPC and the NDP will be able to work together

:lol: Now that was funny!

 

[Hank C]

One thing that shows me that people are not just voting Tory out of anger towards the Liberals is the poll the indicates Canadians choose Harper as their most trusted leader. I think this shows the Tory vote is now more solid and less volitile as was in the last election 2004.

At this point it would take alot more than shooting themselves in the foot for the CPC to fall flat like last time......it would take a direct blast from a .44 slug to the head...and I highly doubt that is gonna happen.

 

[I think not]

Re: RE: January 12th polls

I sure hope the CPC and the NDP will be able to work together

:lol: Now that was funny!

I don't see why that would be funny, Communist Parties and Right wing parties have formed government in the past in Europe, when people there thought it was unthinkable.

 

[Hank C]

Re: RE: January 12th polls

I sure hope the CPC and the NDP will be able to work together

:lol: Now that was funny!

sry momentary brain freeze!!! :lol:

 

[Citizen]

Re: RE: January 12th polls

I sure hope the CPC and the NDP will be able to work together

:lol: Now that was funny!

I don't see why that would be funny, Communist Parties and Right wing parties have formed government in the past in Europe, when people there thought it was unthinkable.

The NDP is not the Communist Party of Canada (is that still around?). Is there a time in Canadian political history when the NDP and a Conservative government actually worked together for any length of time?