Harper's Numbers

[BigB]

First of all, I will say that I am disgusted with this Liberal government. However during this campaign Mr. Harper has constantly reminded us of the scandal.His platform has been very quiet. I would love to vote for the Conservative Party but not for this guy. I am in business and love numbers so I decided to check out the Conservative platform. This is what I came up with:

1)"Reduce the GST by one point right away to six percent. And we will reduce the GST by another point to five percent,over five years."
- If you make $50,000/year net (which most people do not) and you spent every single dime, you save $500. How about most people who clear 25k to 35k net? you save$250 to $350/a year. Great you still save something right? But what happens when programs are cut in order to provide this GST relief? YOU END UP PAYING OUT MORE THAN YOU SAVE!!!!! The second percent comes in effect just when re-election rolls around.

2)"Too many crime-related problems begin when our youth are not equipped with the necessary life skills to make the right choices, to say "no" to drugs, gangs and violence. We need to invest in positive oppurtunities for young people to say "yes" to."

*Direct $50 million in funding into community-based,educational,sporting,cultural and vocational oppurtunities for young people at risk.

-Okay this is our future right? We can prevent criminals right here, we can create model citizens? All with 50 million dollars?
Here is something to think about: As of July 2005 the population of kids in Canada from the age of 0-14 is 5,885,276 making up 17.9% of our population. $50 million divided by 5,885,276 = $8.49. Wow what an investment in our future!! What do you think we can get each child? This is pathetic considering what he is willing to spend on military.

3) Defending Canada
* Increase spending on the Canadian Forces by $5.3 billion over the next five years, beyond the currently projected levels of defense spending.
* Recruit 13,00 additional regular forces and 10,00 additional reserve forces personnel.
* Acquire epuipment needed to support a multi role, combat-capable maritime, land and air force. Fundamental capability requirements are national surveillance and control, counter-terrorism, air and sea deployability, and logistics supportability.
- Sure I agree that we should secure our country and it's borders but let's do the math: 23,00 new soldiers + combat-capable+ air and sea deployability = We are going to war!! Roughly13,000 soldiers a month is the current US recruitment rate. Which is not being filled. "Oh yeah there is a country above us with 32.8 million people , Let's see if they can join us" If we get involved in any war, then we will be living in fear just like our neighbours. Canadians in general, regardless of political belief are regarded as kind and peaceful people globally. Let's not change that.
It is sad that this guy is going to win.He is very robotic and lacks personality. He is coached on how to appeal to people! Who will coach him on appealing to other foreign leaders? He has even said himself that he really has not travelled outside of North America much. This is not the Conservative Party . This is still the Alliance. Have you noticed his candidates refuse to speak to the media? They are constantly avoiding questions.Every press conference is organized with set questions and no outsiders allowed. This my friends, I fear. Don't forget the scandal, that should never happen again! However will we remember the scandal when we are the 51st state?

 

[Jersay]

Numbers make sense.

He is trying to keep his party out of defecit.

 

[BigB]

Viking:
Keep the party out of deficit? Out of deficit! Great explanation.With all those tax cuts. Big investment in our future I see. When this youth grows up in 10 years and crime goes up, you will know why. That $8.49 will not have worked. Sure, that might not affect you now but what happens when you become a victim of crime( theft, robbery, assault etc.). Come talk to me then. These crimes will occur more often and in the suburbs. As for him keeping "his party", not the country out of deficit. Wait until we go to war. As far as I am concerned those who support Mr. Harper and are willing to go to war with the US should be brave enough to volunteer their services and their children first. If you believe in something strongly, prove it! I never grew up rich. My family never asked for hand outs from the government and was always working hard. I spent a lot of time playing sports at boys and girls clubs and community centres. If those government programs did not exist I might have taken the wrong road. What happens to the kids who cannot afford a membership at the raquet club, figure skating lessons or do not have a soccer mom? When the government invests only $8.49 into their future they end up hanging on the streets pointing guns at you. That's cool, we will just hand them a harsh sentence and build another jail. Guess what? You are still not safe,that kid has 2 brothers. Politicians would rather build a prison or hire more officers. Why? Because that is an immediate action. Remember great accomplishments take time. I am now financially capable to send my kids to any program they desire. What I worry about is when my kids have to interact with less privelaged children. This is why each kid deserves a chance. $8.49 a kid? You can't even buy a basketball, book, art supplies or pay decent wages. When making decisions you should open your mind to the larger picture and not just what affects you now! Remember kids will be kids! Do you want the ones with no money to still have a kids mind when they are 23 and walking by you?

 

[Jersay]

I support the NDP BigBen.

 

[Dexter Sinister]

*We can prevent criminals right here, we can create model citizens? All with 50 million dollars? ... $50 million divided by 5,885,276 = $8.49.

I agree with you in general, but that one needs a little more thought. Not all of those kids are at risk; most will turn out alright without additional government help, as they always have. How many are at risk? I have no idea, but as a first approximation we might try a version of the old Pareto Rule: 80% of the trouble is caused by 20% of the kids, so say 20% are at serious risk. I doubt it's that high, I'd guess it's nearer 5%. If it's 20%, it works out to around $42 a head, at 5% it's about $170 a head. Still not a lot, especially when you consider things like the cost of post-secondary education; that won't even buy one semester's books and supplies. Really though, we need to know how the money will be disbursed, in detail, before we can make much of a judgement on the utility of that program. It's like most campaign promises in that regard: it's impossible to know what it really means in practical terms.

 

[BigB]

Yes not all the kids are at risk. They all should be entitled to equal funding. We can assume that 20% are at serious risk. What I am finding more common when I see the friends of my children is that a lot of kids are facing divorced parents, multiple fathers in the family and other different family settings compared to a traditional 2 parent family. Yes, a child might be raised by a single parent who isloving and making a decent income. This child might not end up involved in crime.However, this child does deserve to take part in these programs. These children need to be around other children in the same situation and other unique situations to know that it is acceptable. A single parent also needs some time of their own. This is what strengthens people mentally and morally. Whether kids are at risk or not,I feel when the goverment says they will spend $50 million, everybody should be entitled to that. All 5,885,276 should have the option to read the new books,dribble the new ball,use the new computer etc. I understand your point and formula and appreciate your opinion. Do you think Mr.Harper would say "Yes I think $50 million is enough because it does not pertain to 80 percent of our youth"? How would his supporters like that? Who is part of the 80% ? Start an after school sports program and tell the wealthy couple their child is not welcome because he is not at risk? More than the 5%-20% youths at risk will enroll so yes it moves towards the $8.49.