Flu Bigger Threat Than Terrorism

[quandary121]

4:23pm UK, Friday August 08, 2008
A pandemic flu bug is a bigger threat to the country than terrorism or flooding, the Government has revealed in a new 'risk register'.

Sniffles and sneezes may seem harmless but flu is considered a big threat
If there was to be a pandemic flu virus it could claim up to 750,000 lives, according to the document.
But such an incident is only ranked fifth in the "most likely" list and is thought to be slightly less likely than a severe weather attack.
In preparation for a potential mass outbreak of flu, the Government has stockpiled enough doses of the antiviral drug oseltamivir - known as Tamiflu - to treat a quarter of the population.
The document said: "This should be sufficient to treat all those who fall ill in a pandemic of similar proportions to those that occurred in the 20th century.
"The Government is collaborating actively with international partners on prevention, detection and research and it is taking every practical step to ensure that the UK is prepared to limit the internal spread of a pandemic and to minimise health, economic and social harm, a far as possible."
Most likely to take place is a further attack on the transport network, with an electronic attack on IT systems coming a close second and a terror strike on a public place third.
Different threats are ranked on a specially-devised graph according to "relative likelihood" and "relative impact".
The document said: "Of the different malicious attacks outlined in this document, conventional attacks on transport systems are judged to be some of the more likely to occur.
"This assessment is supported by the many examples of this type of attack perpetrated by different groups across the globe."
Railways, including underground train systems in UK cities, are "more vulnerable to attack" than airlines because of different security levels.
After a flu pandemic, coastal flooding was named as the second most damaging type of threat.
The new information ranked a chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) attack by terrorists as about as likely as a major incident of inland flooding.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK...reak+More+Dangerous+Than+Terrorism+And+Floods

 

[quandary121]

Ten things you need to know about pandemic influenza

14 October 2005

1. Pandemic influenza is different from avian influenza.
Avian influenza refers to a large group of different influenza viruses that primarily affect birds. On rare occasions, these bird viruses can infect other species, including pigs and humans. The vast majority of avian influenza viruses do not infect humans. An influenza pandemic happens when a new subtype emerges that has not previously circulated in humans.
For this reason, avian H5N1 is a strain with pandemic potential, since it might ultimately adapt into a strain that is contagious among humans. Once this adaptation occurs, it will no longer be a bird virus--it will be a human influenza virus. Influenza pandemics are caused by new influenza viruses that have adapted to humans.
2. Influenza pandemics are recurring events.
An influenza pandemic is a rare but recurrent event. Three pandemics occurred in the previous century: “Spanish influenza” in 1918, “Asian influenza” in 1957, and “Hong Kong influenza” in 1968. The 1918 pandemic killed an estimated 40–50 million people worldwide. That pandemic, which was exceptional, is considered one of the deadliest disease events in human history. Subsequent pandemics were much milder, with an estimated 2 million deaths in 1957 and 1 million deaths in 1968.
A pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus emerges and starts spreading as easily as normal influenza – by coughing and sneezing. Because the virus is new, the human immune system will have no pre-existing immunity. This makes it likely that people who contract pandemic influenza will experience more serious disease than that caused by normal influenza.
3. The world may be on the brink of another pandemic.
Health experts have been monitoring a new and extremely severe influenza virus – the H5N1 strain – for almost eight years. The H5N1 strain first infected humans in Hong Kong in 1997, causing 18 cases, including six deaths. Since mid-2003, this virus has caused the largest and most severe outbreaks in poultry on record. In December 2003, infections in people exposed to sick birds were identified.
Since then, over 100 human cases have been laboratory confirmed in four Asian countries (Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam), and more than half of these people have died. Most cases have occurred in previously healthy children and young adults. Fortunately, the virus does not jump easily from birds to humans or spread readily and sustainably among humans. Should H5N1 evolve to a form as contagious as normal influenza, a pandemic could begin.
4. All countries will be affected.
Once a fully contagious virus emerges, its global spread is considered inevitable. Countries might, through measures such as border closures and travel restrictions, delay arrival of the virus, but cannot stop it. The pandemics of the previous century encircled the globe in 6 to 9 months, even when most international travel was by ship. Given the speed and volume of international air travel today, the virus could spread more rapidly, possibly reaching all continents in less than 3 months.
5. Widespread illness will occur.
Because most people will have no immunity to the pandemic virus, infection and illness rates are expected to be higher than during seasonal epidemics of normal influenza. Current projections for the next pandemic estimate that a substantial percentage of the world’s population will require some form of medical care. Few countries have the staff, facilities, equipment, and hospital beds needed to cope with large numbers of people who suddenly fall ill.
6. Medical supplies will be inadequate.
Supplies of vaccines and antiviral drugs – the two most important medical interventions for reducing illness and deaths during a pandemic – will be inadequate in all countries at the start of a pandemic and for many months thereafter. Inadequate supplies of vaccines are of particular concern, as vaccines are considered the first line of defence for protecting populations. On present trends, many developing countries will have no access to vaccines throughout the duration of a pandemic.
7. Large numbers of deaths will occur.
Historically, the number of deaths during a pandemic has varied greatly. Death rates are largely determined by four factors: the number of people who become infected, the virulence of the virus, the underlying characteristics and vulnerability of affected populations, and the effectiveness of preventive measures. Accurate predictions of mortality cannot be made before the pandemic virus emerges and begins to spread. All estimates of the number of deaths are purely speculative.
WHO has used a relatively conservative estimate – from 2 million to 7.4 million deaths – because it provides a useful and plausible planning target. This estimate is based on the comparatively mild 1957 pandemic. Estimates based on a more virulent virus, closer to the one seen in 1918, have been made and are much higher. However, the 1918 pandemic was considered exceptional.
8. Economic and social disruption will be great.
High rates of illness and worker absenteeism are expected, and these will contribute to social and economic disruption. Past pandemics have spread globally in two and sometimes three waves. Not all parts of the world or of a single country are expected to be severely affected at the same time. Social and economic disruptions could be temporary, but may be amplified in today’s closely interrelated and interdependent systems of trade and commerce. Social disruption may be greatest when rates of absenteeism impair essential services, such as power, transportation, and communications.
9. Every country must be prepared.
WHO has issued a series of recommended strategic actions [pdf 113kb] for responding to the influenza pandemic threat. The actions are designed to provide different layers of defence that reflect the complexity of the evolving situation. Recommended actions are different for the present phase of pandemic alert, the emergence of a pandemic virus, and the declaration of a pandemic and its subsequent international spread.
10. WHO will alert the world when the pandemic threat increases.
WHO works closely with ministries of health and various public health organizations to support countries' surveillance of circulating influenza strains. A sensitive surveillance system that can detect emerging influenza strains is essential for the rapid detection of a pandemic virus.
Six distinct phases have been defined to facilitate pandemic preparedness planning, with roles defined for governments, industry, and WHO. The present situation is categorized as phase 3: a virus new to humans is causing infections, but does not spread easily from one person to another.



http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/pandemic10things/en/index.html

 

[quandary121]

Pandemic Flu

Question
01. What is pandemic flu?
Answer
Flu that spreads rapidly causing widespread epidemics around the world. Pandemic flu occurs when a new, highly infectious and dangerous strain of the influenza virus appears. In contrast to the ‘ordinary’ or ‘seasonal’, flu outbreaks which we see every winter in the UK, flu pandemics occur infrequently- usually every few decades. There were three last century. The most serious was in 1918, killing millions of people worldwide. Smaller pandemics happened in 1957 and 1968.
Question
02. What is the difference between seasonal, avian and pandemic flu?
Answer
It is important to be clear about the differences between seasonal flu, avian flu and pandemic flu. Avian flu is a disease which mainly affects birds. Seasonal flu refers to the viruses that circulate in the human population and cause widespread illness each winter. Pandemic flu occurs infrequently, when a new influenza virus emerges which is markedly different from those recently circulating in the human population, causes disease in people and spreads easily between people because they have little or no immunity to it. This could happen through an avian flu virus (such as H5N1) mutating into a different strain with greater affinity for people.
Question
03. Are we at risk right now?
Answer
A pandemic can start when three conditions have been met:
1. a new influenza virus subtype emerges;
2. it infects humans, causing serious illness; and
3. it spreads easily and sustainably among humans.
The H5N1 virus meets the first two conditions and it is likely that nobody will have immunity should an H5N1-like pandemic virus emerge. The H5N1 virus has not yet demonstrated the ability to pass easily between people. However, the virus is currently passing from birds to humans so it could develop the ability to pass easily between people. These opportunities will also persist as long as the virus continues to circulate in birds.
Question
04. Is another influenza pandemic likely?
Answer
Flu viruses are constantly changing and adapting, so it is likely that viruses sufficiently different from ‘ordinary’ flu strains to cause a pandemic will emerge from time to time. Experts are particularly concerned that the H5N1 virus, which has already caused disease and death in humans, may develop the capacity to pass easily between people.

Question
05. What alert level are we at now?
Answer
The World Health Organization (WHO) has developed an alert system to help inform the world about the current threat of a pandemic emerging. The alert system has six phases, with Phase 1 having the lowest risk of human cases and Phase 6 posing the greatest risk of pandemic. The world is presently in Phase 3 of the Pandemic Alert. This means that there is a new influenza virus subtype causing disease in humans, but it is not yet spreading in an efficient (easily transmittable) and sustainable manner among humans.

Question
06. Where is the new virus likely to come from?
Answer
Past experience suggests that it will first appear in South East Asia, the Middle East or Africa but it could be anywhere including the UK.
Question
07. How is the virus spread?
Answer
The virus is passed from person to person by breathing in air containing the virus produced when an infected person talks, coughs or sneezes. It can also be spread through hand/face contact after touching a person or surface contaminated with the virus.
Question
08. Can it be prevented at any stage?
Answer
International effort will attempt to try to control a pandemic when it emerges. The World Health Organization has stockpiled supplies of antivirals which will be targeted to the infected area in order to try to slow or stop the spread.

Question
09. What are the symptoms of pandemic flu?
Answer
People infected with the current strand of the avian virus (H5N1) have shown everything from typical human influenza-like symptoms (fever, cough, sore throat, and muscle aches) to pneumonia, severe respiratory diseases, and other life-threatening complications. Symptoms of avian influenza may depend on which specific virus subtype and strain caused the infection.
Question
10. How are people treated?
Answer
Medicines called antivirals can be used to treat influenza. They have been shown to be very helpful in the treatment of 'ordinary' seasonal flu, and it is likely that they will also be effective in the treatment of pandemic flu, but their effectiveness will not be known until the pandemic virus is circulating. Antivirals do not stop the flu from developing but they do subdue the symptoms and reduce the length of time people are sick.
http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publichealth/Flu/PandemicFlu/FAQonly/DH_065088

 

[Walter]

Thank God for penicillin and other antibiotics.

 

[quandary121]

Thank God for penicillin and other antibiotics.

Not really im allergic to penicillin, and antibiotics don't always work,or people become immune to their benefits ..
But im sure many others will be thankful...:smile:

 

[darkbeaver]

I have been conducting an imunization programe on myself for the past ten weeks. Every evening after feeding I strip and get in the coop with my chickens whereafter catching one I rub it all over my body, there is some protestation from the specimin but it usually becomes subdued after five minutes of brisk applications. I feel fine but I'v had three chickens die recently, my auotopsys revealed no conclusive cause of death. Could I have infected my birds?:smile:

 

[quandary121]

I have been conducting an imunization programe on myself for the past ten weeks. Every evening after feeding I strip and get in the coop with my chickens whereafter catching one I rub it all over my body, there is some protestation from the specimin but it usually becomes subdued after five minutes of brisk applications. I feel fine but I'v had three chickens die recently, my auotopsys revealed no conclusive cause of death. Could I have infected my birds?:smile:

I'm not sure i would have posted that reply over the web darkbeaver ,were talking bird flu not bird sex,( becomes subdued after five minutes of brisk applications) sounds dead weird too me jeez ;-) (I feel fine) i bet you do m8 i bet you do ,(no conclusive cause of death) i reckon it was from friction or violent shaking, personally..ROFL :lol::lol::lol:

 

[darkbeaver]

I'm not sure i would have posted that reply over the web darkbeaver ,were talking bird flu not bird sex,( becomes subdued after five minutes of brisk applications) sounds dead weird too me jeez ;-) (I feel fine) i bet you do m8 i bet you do ,(no conclusive cause of death) i reckon it was from friction or violent shaking, personally..ROFL :lol::lol::lol:

These chickens aren't old enough for sex Quandary!:smile:

 

[quandary121]

These chickens aren't old enough for sex Quandary!:smile:

just pulling your leg ,im sure you know what your doing no matter how weird it may seem to us. ;-)