Election Predition

[Jersay]

From:
democraticSPACE
ELECTION PREDICTION

Liberal 71
CPC 63
NDP 12
Bloc 50
Too close to call
112

So it seems to be getting closer and closer, last time I checked the Libs were around 83 and the conservatives were around 71.

More ridings are becoming too close to call, it should be an interesting race.

 

[FiveParadox]

Liberal Minority

I am predicting another mandate for the Liberal Government; I believe that they are going to hold a second consecutive minority in the House, although they will likely possess a larger minority than they did during the Thirty-eigth Parliament (they're going to have less seats).

However, one must keep in mind that even if the Conservative Party holds more seats in the House than do the Liberals, the Rt. Hon. Paul Martin still has the first opportunity to secure confidence and attempt to govern.

For example, in 1925, the Liberal Government of the late Rt. Hon. Mackenzie King lost by fifteen seats to the Conservative Party; however, he had the first opportunity to govern as the Prime Minister, and he did so by co-operating with the Progressives for over a year. Even though the Conservative Party held more seats, their leader remained the Leader of the Opposition.

In a minority situation, if the Liberals, the NDP and the Bloc Québecois (if necessary) "work together," they could prevent the Governor General from appointing the Hon. Stephen Harper as Prime Minister, even if the Conservative Party is elected to the House with more seats than any other party. This does make sense, and it is fair, since the confidence of the House of Commons signifies the confidence of a majority of constituencies.

 

[Finder]

FPTP or should I say FQCK I was lucky getting only 31% of the vote and still getting a seat because everyone was split.

Anyhow, damn didn't know it was that bad yet. I'm surprised the NDP have so many most likely seats. f&ck even Jack Layton has a fight.

Well keeping my fingers crossed for an NDP break

 

[Breakthrough2006]

However, one must keep in mind that even if the Conservative Party holds more seats in the House than do the Liberals, the Rt. Hon. Paul Martin still has the first opportunity to secure confidence and attempt to govern.

But of course. If the Liberals do something like that it will be portrayed as good politicking. If the Conservatives ever try something like that, there would be absolute outrage.

I would not put anything past Martin though. He knows that once those books are opened, his party will be toast and many of his friends will be going to jail. He will stop at nothing to regain power.

 

[I think not]

Prediction:

The CPC will gain the most seats.

The Libs will form a minority government and the CPC should do nothing to complain about it.

It will last a short time, 12 to 18 months?

Next election around the CPC will gain a majority government.

 

[bluealberta]

Prediction:

The CPC will gain the most seats.

The Libs will form a minority government and the CPC should do nothing to complain about it.

It will last a short time, 12 to 18 months?

Next election around the CPC will gain a majority government.

If the CPC gets the most seats, but the Libs try to hang on to power by any means possible, the country will break up, due to outrage in Quebec and Alberta.

 

[FiveParadox]

If a united Opposition were to "co-operate" against a Conservative plurality, then it's perfectly fair for the second-largest party to attempt to govern with the confidence of the House. That's the way a Parliamentary system works; it's not who has the most seats, it's who's the most likely to secure and hold the confidence of the House.

 

[Jersay]

Exactly doesn't matter who has the most number of seats. But in that situation, wouldn't that be like forming a coalition like in Germany to achieve that?

And to note, that is why last election Harper and Martin said they would respect the number of seats that each party had and wouldn't try to form coalitions, or take over power with a smaller number of seats.

 

[I think not]

Prediction:

The CPC will gain the most seats.

The Libs will form a minority government and the CPC should do nothing to complain about it.

It will last a short time, 12 to 18 months?

Next election around the CPC will gain a majority government.

If the CPC gets the most seats, but the Libs try to hang on to power by any means possible, the country will break up, due to outrage in Quebec and Alberta.

Correct me if I'm wrong but the current governing party is the one that has the right to attempt to form a government first if no majority government is elected.

 

[FiveParadox]

Parliamentary Convention with Minority Governments

That is correct, I think not. In Canada, when the writs of an election are returned and the standing Government does not have more seats than any other party, the Prime Minister reserves the right to attempt to establish the confidence of the House of Commons before the Governor General would consider granting the mandate to the largest party.

Thus, even if the Conservative Party has the most seats, if the Liberal Government can secure the support (even if temporary) of the New Democratic Party and, if necessary, the Bloc Québecois, then it could continue to govern; the Hon. Stephen Harper would continue to stand as the Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition in the House of Commons, while the Rt. Hon. Paul Martin would continue in his mandate as the Prime Minister of Canada.

Consider the Scenario:

The Thirty-ninth Parliament could be composed as follows:
The Conservative Party could have 118 seats.
The Liberal Party could have 99 seats.
The Bloc Québecois could have 65 seats.
The New Democratic Party could have 24 seats.
There could be 2 Members of Parliament who are Independant¹.

In this case, if the NDP were to support the standing Government, and the Bloc Québecois were not opposed to granting confidence, then notwithstanding the fact that the Conservatives hold more seats than any other party, we would continue to be governed by the Liberal Government with the Conservative Opposition.

I wouldn't be surprised if we end up cracking open the books on Parliamentary convention after this election; the race looks pretty tight, according to the people at SES Research.

:!: Footnote ¹ Note that these Independant Members of Parliament are intended to be representatives of the Green Party, but would not hold enough seats to be recognized as such in the House under current conventions.

:!: Edit Added Green Party representation to the given scenario.
:!: Edit Corrected a miscalculation in the given seat scenario.

 

[Finder]

Re: Parliamentary Convention with Minority Governments

That is correct, I think not. In Canada, when the writs of an election are returned and the standing Government does not have more seats than any other party, the Prime Minister reserves the right to attempt to establish the confidence of the House of Commons before the Governor General would consider granting the mandate to the largest party.

Thus, even if the Conservative Party has the most seats, if the Liberal Government can secure the support (even if temporary) of the New Democratic Party and, if necessary, the Bloc Québecois, then it could continue to govern; the Hon. Stephen Harper would continue to stand as the Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition in the House of Commons, while the Rt. Hon. Paul Martin would continue in his mandate as the Prime Minister of Canada.

Consider the Scenario:

The Thirty-ninth Parliament could be composed as follows:
The Conservative Party could have 118 seats.
The Liberal Party could have 99 seats.
The Bloc Québecois could have 65 seats.
The New Democratic Party could have 24 seats.
There could be 2 Members of Parliament who are Independant¹.

In this case, if the NDP were to support the standing Government, and the Bloc Québecois were not opposed to granting confidence, then notwithstanding the fact that the Conservatives hold more seats than any other party, we would continue to be governed by the Liberal Government with the Conservative Opposition.

I wouldn't be surprised if we end up cracking open the books on Parliamentary convention after this election; the race looks pretty tight, according to the people at SES Research.

:!: Footnote ¹ Note that these Independant Members of Parliament are intended to be representatives of the Green Party, but would not hold enough seats to be recognized as such in the House under current conventions.

:!: Edit Added Green Party representation to the given scenario.
:!: [colo=gray]Edit Corrected a miscalculation in the given seat scenario.[/color]

The party who win's the most seats will most likely be asked to form the government. That means if the CPC wins the most seats it's up to them to see if they could chose to govern. If they could get enough support from the Bloq or the NDP or work out an agreement with the Liberals to form some kind of grand coalition or something. If not we might see Harper do a Joe Clark and try to run as if he did have a magority on a so called "issue to issue government" but I don't see it lasting long. Then without dissoving parliment the libs might be asked to form a government if they do not beat the cons. With the NDP's support they might be able to carry the day but they might need other help.

 

[FiveParadox]

Finder, under Canadian convention, as has happened only in 1925 (I believe), the standing Prime Minister always has the first opportunity to govern, whether or not his party has the most seats.

:!: Note This situation is only true for when no party has a majority.

 

[I think not]

Re: Parliamentary Convention with Minority Governments

That is correct, I think not. In Canada, when the writs of an election are returned and the standing Government does not have more seats than any other party, the Prime Minister reserves the right to attempt to establish the confidence of the House of Commons before the Governor General would consider granting the mandate to the largest party.

Thus, even if the Conservative Party has the most seats, if the Liberal Government can secure the support (even if temporary) of the New Democratic Party and, if necessary, the Bloc Québecois, then it could continue to govern; the Hon. Stephen Harper would continue to stand as the Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition in the House of Commons, while the Rt. Hon. Paul Martin would continue in his mandate as the Prime Minister of Canada.

Consider the Scenario:

The Thirty-ninth Parliament could be composed as follows:
The Conservative Party could have 118 seats.
The Liberal Party could have 99 seats.
The Bloc Québecois could have 65 seats.
The New Democratic Party could have 24 seats.
There could be 2 Members of Parliament who are Independant¹.

In this case, if the NDP were to support the standing Government, and the Bloc Québecois were not opposed to granting confidence, then notwithstanding the fact that the Conservatives hold more seats than any other party, we would continue to be governed by the Liberal Government with the Conservative Opposition.

I wouldn't be surprised if we end up cracking open the books on Parliamentary convention after this election; the race looks pretty tight, according to the people at SES Research.

:!: Footnote ¹ Note that these Independant Members of Parliament are intended to be representatives of the Green Party, but would not hold enough seats to be recognized as such in the House under current conventions.

:!: Edit Added Green Party representation to the given scenario.
:!: Edit Corrected a miscalculation in the given seat scenario.

Thanks for clearing that up Paradox, I thought I had it right, now I can call my friend in Canada and bitch I know more than he does :lol:

Back on topic, IMO, if the Libs form a minority government, if I were Harper I wouldn't resist or make any clumsy statements, I would step back, let the form the government and within 2 years have a majority government and get things done.

 

[Numure]

IMHO, the Liberals would never associate themselves with the Bloc. Captain Canada couldnt, and Anti-Seperatist Party of this country could never consider it. So, thats out of the question. I'd see the Bloc making an Alliance with the Conservatives. Its more likely then with the Liberals, as the Bloc and the cons have alot in Common as to Provincial Juristiction, and decentralisation.

 

[FiveParadox]

Then Again...

There are two sides to that, in my opinion. On the one hand, if the Liberal Government of Canada continues, with or without a plurality, I can foresee two main outcomes for the Fortieth General Election:

(a) The Government continues to be found responsible for alleged scandals and corruption, and accountability remains a key piece of criticism during question period; after the dissolution of the House, Canadians elect a Majority Conservative Government; or

(b) The Government "cleans up," and as a result the Opposition "loses traction" during Question Period; the Conservative Party, under the leadership of Stephen Harper, continues to oppose mainstream left-of-centre values. With Canadian voters again able to put trust in the Government, after the dissolution of the House, Canadians elect a Majority Liberal Government.

Both of those scenarios are possible, in my opinion.

 

[Finder]

Re: RE: Election Predition

Finder, under Canadian convention, as has happened only in 1925 (I believe), the standing Prime Minister always has the first opportunity to govern, whether or not his party has the most seats.

:!: Note This situation is only true for when no party has a majority.

Ok, I think your wrong, as I orginally thought we might be looking at the same thing which happend in 1979. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1979

where the conservatives won a bare magority over the Liberals who had power. So no, if the conservatives win more seats, they could and most likely will form the first government. The GG on seeing that they can not form a real government may then ask the Liberals who may have the ndp support them. *shrugs*

 

[FiveParadox]

1979 Election Results

Finder, the late Rt. Hon. Pierre Trudeau chose not to pursue his right to attempt to secure the confidence of the House of Commons (then again, nor would the New Democratic Party of the day or the Social Credit Party have been willing to support such a bid for confidence).

For an example of when this event can occur, at least one other party must be willing to support the standing Government with the current Prime Minister (such as may be the case with the current New Democratic Party, if it were a choice between them and the Conservatives). For more information about how this can work, please click here (which opens a link to Wikipedia.org, to describe the election of 1925).

:!: Edit, Note Just to be clear, when I said that I thought that this had happened only in 1925, I meant that I believe 1925 was the only time that a Prime Minister had successfully secured the confidence of the House, even when he did not hold more seats than any other party.