"Brexit would be devastating for the UK economy", the Remainers kept telling us during the referendum which they evantually lost.
Yet the British economy is still suffering no devastating effects from Brexit. In fact, it's roaring ahead of the US and Europe...
Let's not do ourselves down - Britain is roaring ahead of the US and Europe
Allister Heath
29 July 2016
The Telegraph
There's a tendency to bemoan our own economic shortcomings while turning a blind eye to the errors of others Credit: Jason Lee/Reuters
Britain has always excelled at self-flagellation. Our economy certainly has many faults, and it is a sign of national self-confidence that we are so keen to discuss endlessly how to address them. But we are not the only ones to face immense challenges, and it is a bizarre legacy of the declinist 1970s that so many people in the UK are so willing to believe that other economies are doing better than our own.
Take the recent false narrative that the eurozone was undergoing a rebirth, fuelled in part by a temporary growth spike in the first quarter. The most recent second-quarter GDP figures shows it expanded by just 0.3pc in the second quarter, against 0.6pc for the UK.
France didn’t grow at all, in a major blow. We don’t know for sure about Germany yet, but GDP probably grew by 0.3-0.4pc
As to Italy, it probably expanded by a pathetic 0.1pc: for all the recent false dawns in that country, it remains the case that Italy is mired in permanent stagnation. It has for all intents and purposes not grown at all since it adopted the euro, a decision which will in time be remembered as one of the most disastrous it has ever taken.
Spain, which has released its figures, is the only partial exception to this appalling picture: its economy has also slowed, albeit to a still strong 0.7pc.
Booming: Despite Brexit, Britain's economy is still outperforming US and Europe
On the one hand, the European Commission’s shameless, hypocritical decision to simply ignore the fact that Spain and Portugal remain in breach of the stability and growth pact’s 3pc budget deficit limit is welcome: at least the Eurocrats, who are facing an existential crisis, realise that there is no sense in further angering European electorates in the aftermath of the Brexit.
On the other, it is clear that the old idea that the euro, for all its flaws, would at least serve as some sort of disciplinary mechanism for wayward states is now entirely obsolete. The system is breaking down on all sides. True, there was progress of another kind in the eurozone: unemployment fell again.
But the average rate of 10.1pc in June remains horrendously elevated (and more than twice the UK’s 4.9pc). There also remains plenty of divergence fuelled by a one-size-fits all currency zone, with the jobless rate ranging from an excellent 4.0pc in Malta to a catastrophic, inhumane 23.3pc in Greece.
It’s not just about our European neighbours.
There is an equally false view that the United States must be doing better than us. Yet it too only grew by 0.3pc (or 1.2pc in the annualised terms that Americans usually refer to) while its first quarter growth was slashed to 0.2pc (0.8pc annualised).
This isn’t some daft jingoistic appeal to economic nationalism. I have spent my entire career as a commentator analysing the many, many faults in Britain’s economic model and prescribing remedies. I could write not just a column but a long book about them.
But the fact that so many people continue to express surprise each time we outperform other rich economies shows that we still have an unfortunate tendency to do ourselves down. Why are these same people not berating the US and eurozone authorities? Why are they so obsessed with portraying our recent vote for self-government as economically disastrous, while turning a blind eye to the genuine economic blunders in so many other countries?
The reality is that we did pretty well in the second quarter, confounding all of those who said that the pre-referendum nervousness and the incessant drumbeat of Project Fear would hurt the economy. It may not last in the third quarter – the self-fulfilling doom of too many of our business leaders may see to that – but until now our performance has been creditable.
The second quarter slowdown in the US and the eurozone should also remind us that there are plenty of macroeconomic reasons why big companies could be doing badly, entirely irrespective of any Brexit-inspired jitters.
Yet we can be sure that it will all be blamed on Brexit, now the mother of all excuses.
allister.heath@telegraph.co.uk
Let's not do ourselves down - Britain is roaring ahead of the US and Europe
UK exports grow faster than global rivals for first time since 2006 as businesses target non-EU markets
The UK’s exports have grown at a world-beating pace for the first time in nearly a decade, according to official figures, as businesses rapidly increased the share of goods they sold outside of the European Union.
The success of British firms in repositioning to markets further afield has helped boost overall export growth above the global rate of expansion for the first time since 2006, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The UK’s success came at a fraught moment for global trade as a whole, as world export growth fell behind overall economic growth for the first time in 14 years. The figures suggested that the country's exporters were already moving towards non-EU markets ahead of this year's EU referendum result.
While Britain has sold slightly more goods outside of the EU than within it for the last four years, the share of exports heading out of the customs union increased sharply in 2015. UK businesses sold £151bn of goods to countries beyond the EU last year, compared with just £134bn purchased by EU members.
UK exports grow faster than global rivals for first time since 2006 as businesses target non-EU markets
Yet the British economy is still suffering no devastating effects from Brexit. In fact, it's roaring ahead of the US and Europe...
Let's not do ourselves down - Britain is roaring ahead of the US and Europe
Allister Heath
29 July 2016
The Telegraph
There's a tendency to bemoan our own economic shortcomings while turning a blind eye to the errors of others Credit: Jason Lee/Reuters
Britain has always excelled at self-flagellation. Our economy certainly has many faults, and it is a sign of national self-confidence that we are so keen to discuss endlessly how to address them. But we are not the only ones to face immense challenges, and it is a bizarre legacy of the declinist 1970s that so many people in the UK are so willing to believe that other economies are doing better than our own.
Take the recent false narrative that the eurozone was undergoing a rebirth, fuelled in part by a temporary growth spike in the first quarter. The most recent second-quarter GDP figures shows it expanded by just 0.3pc in the second quarter, against 0.6pc for the UK.
France didn’t grow at all, in a major blow. We don’t know for sure about Germany yet, but GDP probably grew by 0.3-0.4pc
As to Italy, it probably expanded by a pathetic 0.1pc: for all the recent false dawns in that country, it remains the case that Italy is mired in permanent stagnation. It has for all intents and purposes not grown at all since it adopted the euro, a decision which will in time be remembered as one of the most disastrous it has ever taken.
Spain, which has released its figures, is the only partial exception to this appalling picture: its economy has also slowed, albeit to a still strong 0.7pc.
Booming: Despite Brexit, Britain's economy is still outperforming US and Europe
On the one hand, the European Commission’s shameless, hypocritical decision to simply ignore the fact that Spain and Portugal remain in breach of the stability and growth pact’s 3pc budget deficit limit is welcome: at least the Eurocrats, who are facing an existential crisis, realise that there is no sense in further angering European electorates in the aftermath of the Brexit.
On the other, it is clear that the old idea that the euro, for all its flaws, would at least serve as some sort of disciplinary mechanism for wayward states is now entirely obsolete. The system is breaking down on all sides. True, there was progress of another kind in the eurozone: unemployment fell again.
But the average rate of 10.1pc in June remains horrendously elevated (and more than twice the UK’s 4.9pc). There also remains plenty of divergence fuelled by a one-size-fits all currency zone, with the jobless rate ranging from an excellent 4.0pc in Malta to a catastrophic, inhumane 23.3pc in Greece.
It’s not just about our European neighbours.
There is an equally false view that the United States must be doing better than us. Yet it too only grew by 0.3pc (or 1.2pc in the annualised terms that Americans usually refer to) while its first quarter growth was slashed to 0.2pc (0.8pc annualised).
This isn’t some daft jingoistic appeal to economic nationalism. I have spent my entire career as a commentator analysing the many, many faults in Britain’s economic model and prescribing remedies. I could write not just a column but a long book about them.
But the fact that so many people continue to express surprise each time we outperform other rich economies shows that we still have an unfortunate tendency to do ourselves down. Why are these same people not berating the US and eurozone authorities? Why are they so obsessed with portraying our recent vote for self-government as economically disastrous, while turning a blind eye to the genuine economic blunders in so many other countries?
The reality is that we did pretty well in the second quarter, confounding all of those who said that the pre-referendum nervousness and the incessant drumbeat of Project Fear would hurt the economy. It may not last in the third quarter – the self-fulfilling doom of too many of our business leaders may see to that – but until now our performance has been creditable.
The second quarter slowdown in the US and the eurozone should also remind us that there are plenty of macroeconomic reasons why big companies could be doing badly, entirely irrespective of any Brexit-inspired jitters.
Yet we can be sure that it will all be blamed on Brexit, now the mother of all excuses.
allister.heath@telegraph.co.uk
Let's not do ourselves down - Britain is roaring ahead of the US and Europe
UK exports grow faster than global rivals for first time since 2006 as businesses target non-EU markets
The UK’s exports have grown at a world-beating pace for the first time in nearly a decade, according to official figures, as businesses rapidly increased the share of goods they sold outside of the European Union.
The success of British firms in repositioning to markets further afield has helped boost overall export growth above the global rate of expansion for the first time since 2006, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The UK’s success came at a fraught moment for global trade as a whole, as world export growth fell behind overall economic growth for the first time in 14 years. The figures suggested that the country's exporters were already moving towards non-EU markets ahead of this year's EU referendum result.
While Britain has sold slightly more goods outside of the EU than within it for the last four years, the share of exports heading out of the customs union increased sharply in 2015. UK businesses sold £151bn of goods to countries beyond the EU last year, compared with just £134bn purchased by EU members.
UK exports grow faster than global rivals for first time since 2006 as businesses target non-EU markets
