As a Scot, I wouldn't blame the English if they told us to get lost

Blackleaf

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We’ve had our fill of the SNP’s divisive rhetoric in recent weeks and months, and it’s clear there is a great deal more hectoring to come.

So it’s little wonder that increasing numbers of English voters are prepared to turn their backs on the Union and let the Scots go their own way. Scotland is, after all, a drain on national resources...

EUAN McCOLM: As a Scot, I wouldn't blame the English if they told us to get lost


By Euan Mccolm For The Mail On Sunday
15 December 2019

Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, must feel that Christmas has come early. Not only did the Scottish National Party win back a swath of seats lost to Labour and the Tories in 2017 but, with Brexit now inevitable, her campaign to break-up the United Kingdom has received a major boost.

We’ve had our fill of the SNP’s divisive rhetoric in recent weeks and months, and it’s clear there is a great deal more hectoring to come.

So it’s little wonder that increasing numbers of English voters are prepared to turn their backs on the Union and let the Scots go their own way. Scotland is, after all, a drain on national resources.


Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon (pictured outside the V&A Museum in Dundee on December 14) celebrated as the SNP brought back a swath of seats lost to labour on December 13. Her campaign to break up the UK seems to have been given a boost


Under the Barnett Formula – the mechanism by which public spending is divided across the UK – Scotland receives a full 20 per cent more per head of population than England, a substantial sum, however the SNP tries to spin it.

And if English voters are exasperated, many of us north of the border are deeply worried.

Breaking up the Union would not only put an end to this large subsidy, it would leave Scotland in serious financial trouble. Indeed, economists have warned that an independent Scotland would face years of cuts in public service, or tax rises, or a combination of both.


Many Brits are willing to turn their backs on the Union which would leave Scots (pictured, Sturgeon with Glasgow MPs) in serious financial trouble. Some are wondering why Boris Johnson is still bothering with the country which has seen year three pupils attainment drop by more than a third due to changes by the SNP party

Despite the generosity of the Barnett Formula, Scotland’s spending deficit was seven times higher as a percentage of GDP than the UK average during the last financial year. And that was after a heavy round of cuts to public services.

Much has been made of the Scottish oil fields and the wealth that would flow into an independent Scotland. During the 2014 referendum campaign, for example, the Nationalists promised that North Sea oil would underpin a booming economy.

But the price of oil, which peaked at almost $150 a barrel in 2008-09, has fallen steadily over the years. By the time Scots came to vote on membership of the UK, it was trading at about $50 a barrel – a figure that blew a multi-billion-pound hole in the SNP’s prospectus for an independent Scotland. It is still only at $65 a barrel today.

An independent Scotland would lose the security of sterling and would no longer have the protection of Bank of England to underwrite its debts. So it’s hardly surprising that Ms Sturgeon claims an independent Scotland would be welcomed back into the EU with open arms, joining as a fully fledged member.

She diverts attention from the fact that the financial circumstances in which an independent Scotland would find itself might make it ineligible to join.

And do Scottish voters really want to join the disastrous euro currency experiment?

In other words, Ms Sturgeon’s vision of an economically independent Scotland is a dangerous fantasy.

Then there is the question of competence: Ms Sturgeon and the SNP are simply incapable of running an independent nation.


First Minister and SNP Leader Nicola Sturgeon is mobbed by SNP supporters as she arrives at the counting hall in Glasgow


While SNP and Labour campaigners have claimed that the National Health Service is under threat from a Conservative government, the situation north of the border tells a different story.

The Scottish health service is ailing under the stewardship of the SNP. Months after it was due to open, a flagship children’s hospital in Edinburgh lies empty after serious flaws in the building were discovered. Contaminated water supplies at a facility in Glasgow were blamed for the deaths of children who were undergoing routine treatment.


But Sturgeon's idea of an economically independent Scotland is a dangerous fantasy and the country would be unable to run as a singular nation

Waiting time targets established and then enshrined in law by the SNP go unmet while staff shortages mean regular – and expensive – use of agency nurses to cover huge gaps in the service.

The picture is equally bleak in Scottish schools, with standards in both literacy and numeracy troublingly low.

When she became First Minister, Ms Sturgeon pledged that improving the performance of Scotland’s schools would be her top priority.



Earlier this year, a report revealed that attainment among fourth-year secondary pupils has dropped by at least a third in key subject areas since the SNP introduced the Curriculum for Excellence in 2013. It also revealed that the number of Higher (roughly equivalent to A-level) passes in the fifth year of secondary schools had fallen by ten per cent in the past four years.

It is not as if Ms Sturgeon has a mandate for holding a second referendum, however passionately she insists otherwise.

Of course it is true the SNP won 48 of Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats, but the fact remains that only a minority of voters in Scotland supported parties – the SNP and their fellow nationalists the Scottish Greens – that wish to end the Union.


Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson poses for a photograph with Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at Bute House in Edinburgh, Scotland, on July 29

In 2014, 45 per cent of Scots voted Yes to independence. Five years on, 45 per cent of Scots supported pro-independence parties in the General Election. These problematic facts contradict Ms Sturgeon’s breathless assertion that the Scots are on an unstoppable march towards independence. In truth, her movement is stuck, unable to move forward no matter the changes in the political weather.

We can be sure that Ms Sturgeon will ratchet up her rhetoric in the months and years ahead. Where there is the threat of unity, she will sow division.

Grievance is the fuel that drives her nationalist machine and she will find it wherever she can.

But the reality is this: Nicola Sturgeon does not have credible answers to the big questions thrown up by her plans for constitutional turmoil.

Yes, she has a convenient bogeyman in the shape of Boris Johnson. Yes, she will make the most of this Christmas gift.

Meanwhile, Mr Johnson will attempt to keep the Union together – even as millions of English voters continue to wonder why he’s even bothering.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/...OLM-Scot-wouldnt-blame-English-told-lost.html
 

NZDoug

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Jul 18, 2017
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48
Big Bay, Awhitu, New Zealand
Yes, but
"Her Majesty's Naval Base, Clyde (HMNB Clyde; also HMS Neptune), primarily sited at Faslane on the Gare Loch, is one of three operating bases in the United Kingdom for the Royal Navy (the others being HMNB Devonport and HMNB Portsmouth). It is the navy's headquarters in Scotland and is best known as the home of Britain's nuclear weapons, in the form of nuclear submarines armed with Trident missiles."
 

Blackleaf

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 9, 2004
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Yes, but
"Her Majesty's Naval Base, Clyde (HMNB Clyde; also HMS Neptune), primarily sited at Faslane on the Gare Loch, is one of three operating bases in the United Kingdom for the Royal Navy (the others being HMNB Devonport and HMNB Portsmouth). It is the navy's headquarters in Scotland and is best known as the home of Britain's nuclear weapons, in the form of nuclear submarines armed with Trident missiles."

It'd be terrible for the Scots when they lose all that. Lots of job losses. And a big blow in defence capabilities.
 

Blackleaf

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Oct 9, 2004
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Why the SNP won’t get a second referendum

Despite Sturgeon’s victory last week, there is little public appetite for another vote on independence.

ROB LYONS
COLUMNIST
16th December 2019
Spiked



This was a very good election for the Scottish National Party (SNP). While not quite as stunning as 2015’s election ‘yellow-wash’, when the Nats won 56 of the 59 seats available, the 2019 haul of 48 seats is still an enormous success. SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon’s much-watched wild celebrations, captured when news came through of the SNP beating Jo Swinson in the Lib Dem leader’s East Dunbartonshire seat, were as much about how the whole night had gone as they were about getting one over on a rival.

Naturally, the SNP claimed the result was a mandate for another independence referendum. On Friday, Sturgeon declared: ‘I don’t pretend that every single person who voted SNP yesterday will necessarily support independence, but there has been a strong endorsement in this election of Scotland having a choice over our future; of not having to put up with a Conservative government we didn’t vote for and not having to accept life as a nation outside the EU.’

But what the vote shows is rather more complicated. First, the results show how distorting the first-past-the-post system can be. Across the whole of the UK, the Conservatives got 56 per cent of the seats from 43.6 per cent of the vote. That’s lopsided, but nothing compared to the fact that the SNP won 81 per cent of the seats in Scotland with just 45 per cent of the vote.


Second, the big story was the collapse of the Labour vote. In 2017, the SNP got 36.9 per cent of the vote, winning 35 seats, and Labour took 27.1 per cent, winning seven. The Conservatives came second in Scotland that time, with 28 per cent of the vote and 13 seats. This time around, the SNP went up eight percentage points while Labour fell 8.5 percentage points, leaving Labour with just one seat – the anti-Corbyn Edinburgh MP, Ian Murray.

From those numbers, it looks like many voters who rejected Labour and couldn’t bring themselves to vote Conservative or Lib Dem switched to the SNP. This was hardly a ringing endorsement of the need for an independence referendum. The Conservative vote fell a little – down to 25 per cent, leaving the Tories with just six seats and reduced majorities even in those. The Conservatives were also not helped by the stepping down of their media-friendly leader, Ruth Davidson, before the election.

It is also worth noting that the SNP’s vote share of 45 per cent is exactly the same as the ‘Yes’ campaign got in 2014’s independence referendum. Opinion about independence remains divided, but the majority for remaining part of the UK seems consistent. The overwhelming majority of opinion polls since the EU referendum also show a persistent, if small, majority in favour of staying in the UK. So even if there were to be another independence referendum, it could simply repeat the result of the last one. Despite SNP protestations about Scotland being taken out of the EU against its will, Scottish voters seem more inclined to choose the UK over the EU.

Another problem is that, mandate or not, the SNP has no obvious path to independence at the moment. Quite apart from the fact that another referendum would be an insult to voters who took part in the ‘once in a generation’ referendum in 2014 – essentially telling them they got it wrong and must try again – there would need to be approval given for a vote under Section 30 of the Scotland Act 1998. Though in name a decision made by the monarch, it is really a prerogative power granted to the UK government. With a fully fledged unionist in Downing Street, such an order is unlikely to be forthcoming. Senior Conservative Michael Gove has already confirmed that there won’t be government approval for another independence vote.

The SNP could go to court to see if the devolution settlement does, in fact, give Holyrood the right to hold a referendum. But even if they won that case, everyone agrees that only the UK government can actually grant independence. A unilateral referendum, without permission, would trigger a constitutional crisis. The result of an unauthorised referendum in Catalonia was the jailing of the movement’s leaders, but with no progress on achieving independence.

Moreover, the independence argument gets a lot harder after Brexit. Brexit has been fraught with difficulties, but the relationship between the UK and the EU is nowhere near as intertwined as that between Scotland and the rest of the UK. Just take the question of which currency to use. Sturgeon says an independent Scotland would use the pound while a new currency is created (advisers suggest it could take a decade). In the interim, that would leave Scotland without control over its own monetary policy. And while Scottish banks can issue notes at the moment, that right would disappear after independence.

So, the SNP’s vision of an ‘independent’ Scotland within the EU could mean taking rules from Brussels and using the Bank of England’s money for years.

Maybe it suits the SNP to be able to continue to complain about Westminster. Better that than the risk of putting support for independence to the test or taking responsibility for its own failings.

Rob Lyons is science and technology director at the Academy of Ideas and a spiked columnist.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/12/16/why-the-snp-wont-get-a-second-referendum/