Another oil crisis on the horizon?

[Toro]

From Cambridge Energy Research Associates

http://www.cera.com/aspx/cda/public1/news/pressReleases/pressReleaseDetails.aspx?CID=8444

 

[L Gilbert]

Suits my purposes. :lol:

Grow up BitWhys. You're the one with the political chip on your shoulder.

I couldn't care less. I'll make money on it one way or another.

I quit making money on oil and am now making money on alternatives. Did that after my consumption of fuel wasn't being paid for by my investments in oil companies.

 

[Toro]

I quit making money on oil and am now making money on alternatives. Did that after my consumption of fuel wasn't being paid for by my investments in oil companies.

Good for you.

There are a lot of opportunities to make money in alternative energy sources.

 

[L Gilbert]

Yup. I have a creek running down my property and so far the alternative jobbies have paid for the microhydro.

 

[BitWhys]

Suits my purposes. :lol:

Grow up BitWhys. You're the one with the political chip on your shoulder.

...

right

you link to an article that confirms Saudi Arabia is only good for 50 years on known reserves like it proves something to the contrary and I'm the one that's supposed to grow up.

 

[Toro]

right

you link to an article that confirms Saudi Arabia is only good for 50 years on known reserves like it proves something to the contrary and I'm the one that's supposed to grow up.

No, you're acting immature because you are ascribing hidden political motives rather than engaging in honest debate.

Here is the original article.

http://english.people.com.cn/200609/14/eng20060914_302869.html

It is the Saudi energy saying that Saudi Arabia has 140 years of oil. Its not working at the moment, so I found that one and posted it.

FFS BitWhys, not everything is political. I read and try to understand both sides of this debate. I am also fortunate to have access to some of the best minds and in-the-know people in energy in the world, and this is their opinion. But if you want to see everything through a narrow political prism, be my guest. Your loss, not mine.

 

[BitWhys]

what part of " Proved reserves are estimated quantities that analysis of geologic and engineering data demonstrates with reasonable certainty are recoverable under existing economic and operating conditions." do you not understand?

Saudi Arabia 264 billion barrels proved reserves. best estimate

what's so political about pointing out that you're cherry-picking?

 

[Toro]

what part of " Proved reserves are estimated quantities that analysis of geologic and engineering data demonstrates with reasonable certainty are recoverable under existing economic and operating conditions." do you not understand?

Do you?

Alberta Government calculates that about 28 billion cubic metres (174 billion barrels) of crude bitumen are economically recoverable from the three Alberta oil sands areas at current prices using current technology. This is equivalent to about 10% of the estimated 1,700 and 2,500 billion barrels of bitumen in place.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athabasca_Oil_Sands

That is exactly the point. At current prices and current technology these are the reserves. And based on the current conditions, only 10% of the tar sands are recoverable. But is that feasible?

“This is the fifth time that the world is said to be running out of oil,” says CERA Chairman Daniel Yergin. “Each time -- whether it was the ‘gasoline famine’ at the end of WWI or the ‘permanent shortage’ of the 1970s -- technology and the opening of new frontier areas has banished the specter of decline. There’s no reason to think that technology is finished this time.”

http://www.cera.com/aspx/cda/public1/news/pressReleases/pressReleaseDetails.aspx?CID=8444

If you think the world will run out of oil in 2051, then the price of oil will rise far above the $40 or so that the government approximates the world's reserves at. And thus, the amount of "proven reserves" will subsequently increase because they will become more economic. That is how the calculation of proven reservese work. The higher the price and the greater the technology, the more feasible the extraction of oil from a specific field becomes.

Now look at the data from the EIA web site you posted

reserves, billions of barrels

Canada 179.210
Venezuela 80.012
United States 21.757

Do you think that these are accurate? A year ago, on the EIA website, the DOE wrote that reserves may be as high as 330 billion barrels of oil in Canada.

In Venezuela

estimated that the Orinoco Belt has 236 billion barrels of heavy crude, which would make it the largest petroleum reserve in the world.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orinoco_Belt

The United States

The largest known oil shale deposits in the world are in the Green River Formation, which covers portions of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming...For potentially recoverable oil shale resources, we roughly derive an upper bound of 1.1 trillion barrels of oil and a lower bound of about 500 billion barrels...the midpoint in our estimate range, 800 billion barrels, is more than triple the proven oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. Present U.S. demand for petroleum products is about 20 million barrels per day.

http://rand.org/pubs/monographs/2005/RAND_MG414.pdf

We may be a few decades away from exploiting shale deposits in the US, but it is entirely dependent on technology.

what's so political about pointing out that you're cherry-picking?

please. I'm supposed to prefer the information from some trade rag that suits your purposes over that of the EIA?

What, pray tell, are my "purposes"?

 

[Numure]

OK i admit it. I know nothing.

But i guarantee it's not as simple as supply and demand. If there's a way they can get more money out of you they'll do it

It has everything to do with supply and demand. If they want the price to jack, they will lower supply. Cutting production.

 

[BitWhys]

...What, pray tell, are my "purposes"?

If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say that right now it would be to prove that you know better than BP, Penwell and Gulf combined. Either that or simply putting a lot of effort into missing the point.

Penwell clocked the 174 in oilsands, btw.

 

[Toro]

If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say that right now it would be to prove that you know better than BP, Penwell and Gulf combined. Either that or simply putting a lot of effort into missing the point.

:lol:

Yeah, that's it BitWhys.