2006 Canadian Election.. call it right away?

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Do you think an elect

It looks like Layton and Martin have an agreement in principle too. The details will be available soon. I'm guessing that will draw support for both of them. Parrish will likely support it, and Kilgour might. There are a lot of people who have been ill on both sides.

More importantly, it may get at least some of the BQ supporting the budget. They may not fully support it, but they may decline to vote against it. That might keep the government alive for a while.

It's still a longshot, and I'd still bet on a June 27th election, but Harper is looking more and more like a power-hungry git than a valid leader. That's what I like to see. ;-)

 

[DasFX]

Re: RE: Do you think an elect

Well Conservatives are only 3 points ahead of Martin in todays poll, so if you figure in the margin of error it could be a dead heat.

In our system of government, the popular vote really means nothing. It all depends on where and how the support is allocated.

The Bloc in Quebec are about around 50%, yet they will more than likely take 80% of the seats.

Every person in Western Canada could vote for the Conservatives and every person in Quebec could vote for the Bloc and we still could have a Liberal government, although not a majority, a strong minority.

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Do you think an elect

It's doubtful that things will break down that cleanly though, Das. This election is going to be fought riding by riding, there is little doubt of that. The dynamics are different though.

The Conservatives stand to lose two or three seats in Saskatchewan to the NDP. They stand to lose two or three more in BC the same way. And a couple in Ontario.

The Liberals could lose several to the NDP as well, especially in Ontario.

Ontario is not going to be clean like it usually is. Almost every seat is up for grabs. The Liberals will hang on to a lot of them though, especially in the coveted 905 area code. The Conservatives stand to gain mostly in the rural areas.

Neither the NDP nor the Conservatives are likely to gain anything in Quebec, but the Liberals are almost certain to lose quite a few to the BQ.

The Maritimes will split almost equally Liberal/Conservative.

Unless something gives (I think we're approaching the live boy/dead girl analogy...but for way different reasons than usual) the Liberals and Conservatives are in an almost dead heat.

The Bloc will gain some and remain 3rd in seats.

The NDP will end up someplace between 20 and 40...let's say 30, 'cause I'm feeling optimistic tonight.

That puts the 3rd and 4th place parties in the driver's seat. Both are left-leaning.

Now things get fun. The NDP wants proportional representation. The Bloc has said that they do too. The Conservatives used to but they flip-flopped on it when they thought they might be able to win an election. If they really want to address the "democratic deficit" though, they can be pressured to support it. The Liberals really hate PR because they always get more seats than the popular vote would suggest.

No matter who wins...Liberals or Conservatives...the margin is likely to be a lot tighter. I think we could end up with a system of proportional representation before all of this is done.

That means that in the 2007 or 2008 election (yes I think the next minority government will last longer) the Green Party and possibly some others (I'm betting the Cosmopolitans could pick up a lot of fed-up Liberals if they tried hard) come into play.

This little crisis we're seeing could be just the thing to get our electoral system straightened out. There would be no more majority governments. The parties would be forced to form coalitions, at least on single issues, and negotiate and compromise and DO THEIR DAMNED JOBS FOR A CHANGE.

 

[MMMike]

Re: RE: Do you think an elect

It looks like Layton and Martin have an agreement in principle too. The details will be available soon. I'm guessing that will draw support for both of them. Parrish will likely support it, and Kilgour might. There are a lot of people who have been ill on both sides.

More importantly, it may get at least some of the BQ supporting the budget. They may not fully support it, but they may decline to vote against it. That might keep the government alive for a while.

It's still a longshot, and I'd still bet on a June 27th election, but Harper is looking more and more like a power-hungry git than a valid leader. That's what I like to see. ;-)

The details of the agreement show that the Martin Liberals have zero integrity, zero vision. This is a huge change to the budget, now instead of a much needed cut in taxes we get an extra $5 billion in spending on Jack's pet projects. Paul Martin has completely abandoned his so called cherished values of "fiscal responsibility". His only desire is holding on to power as long as possible.

Both the Bloc and the Conservatives have rightly both come out and said that they cannot and will not support the amended budget.

It's past time for an election: let's get on with it. THROW THE BUMS OUT! :evil:

 

[DasFX]

Re: RE: Do you think an elect

now instead of a much needed cut in taxes we get an extra $5 billion in spending on Jack's pet projects. Paul Martin has completely abandoned his so called cherished values of "fiscal responsibility". His only desire is holding on to power as long as possible.

How is a tax break for large corporations much needed? Do you know how much money they take in as profit? The businesses that need the tax break are still getting it. As for large corporations, the tax break is delayed not removed.

How is this not fiscally responsible? The budget is balanced and we are still making payments on the debt.

 

[Reverend Blair]

Re: Do you think an election should be called right away?

This is a huge change to the budget, now instead of a much needed cut in taxes we get an extra $5 billion in spending on Jack's pet projects.

We already have the lowest corporate tax rate among developed nations. Yes, even the United States. These cuts aren't "much needed", they were a gift to get Harper to support the budget while currying favour with corporate Liberal supporters. Harper said he'd support the budget, then he decided he wouldn't. Martin got some support from elsewhere.

Meanwhile Jack's "pet projects", as you derisively try to paint them, are things that very much concern the Canadian people. They are, if you actually take the time to read the party platforms from the last election, what the Liberals, NDP, and BQ ran on. That's 208 people elected on these "pet projects" compared to the 100 (counting the right-wing Cadman) elected on giving the country away to the Robber Barons of the radical right.

Paul Martin has completely abandoned his so called cherished values of "fiscal responsibility".

The entire deal depends on not running a deficit and still applying $2 billion to the debt, so your claim that this isn't fiscally responsible is irresponsible.

Both the Bloc and the Conservatives have rightly both come out and said that they cannot and will not support the amended budget.

The Bloc is going to take some serious flack over this, and rightfully so. They are now voting against their own platform and trying to use semantics to justify their actions.

The Conservatives are so power-hungry that they are misrepresenting their former position and hopping into bed with a party that will rip this country apart.

It's past time for an election: let's get on with it.

Careful what you wish for...the latest poll is only giving the Harperites a three point lead and the Liberals have been trending up as the Conservatives remain flat or trend down.

 

[Never Give Up]

Re: RE: Do you think an elect

In our system of government, the popular vote really means nothing. It all depends on where and how the support is allocated.

The Bloc in Quebec are about around 50%, yet they will more than likely take 80% of the seats.

Every person in Western Canada could vote for the Conservatives and every person in Quebec could vote for the Bloc and we still could have a Liberal government, although not a majority, a strong minority.

Are you a member of Fair Vote Canada, lobbying for Proportional Representation?

If not check out their site.

click here

 

[Never Give Up]

Re: Do you think an election should be called right away?

The entire deal depends on not running a deficit and still applying $2 billion to the debt, so your claim that this isn't fiscally responsible is irresponsible.

$2b is chicken feed compared to our debt. If we continued making $9b then my teenaged daughter will be retired before the debt. How many generations are we willing to bury under the burden that we built up?

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Do you think an elect

So what, we should shirk our responsibility to people and destroy the economy to pay down the debt?

Here's a little bit of reality for you. Money put into education produces money. Money put into the environment produces money. Money put into housing produces money. Money put into child care produces money.

All of those things produce jobs...higher paying, solid jobs for people who pay taxes. All of those things produce sales for existing companies. All of those things produce spin-offs that then drive the economy and produce more taxes.

 

[Never Give Up]

Re: RE: Do you think an elect

So what, we should shirk our responsibility to people and destroy the economy to pay down the debt?

Absolutely not! We do have a responsibility, however, we also have a responsibility to the next generations.

Here's a little bit of reality for you. Money put into education produces money. Money put into the environment produces money. Money put into housing produces money. Money put into child care produces money.

Money put into the environment costs money. There is no monetary benefit. There is a lifestyle benefit... we get to continue drinking water and breathing the air. All labour produces an increase in the GDP, however, debt decreases what we can spend the money on. Unless we pay down our debt in a consistent, dedicated manner then we will hand on to our children, grand children and great grandchildren our excesses to pay for. That is unethical!

All of those things produce jobs...higher paying, solid jobs for people who pay taxes. All of those things produce sales for existing companies. All of those things produce spin-offs that then drive the economy and produce more taxes.

While I agree with the benefit of education etc. providing higher paying jobs, the taxes earned from the higher paying jobs will be consumed by the interest on our national debt. We have lived a lifestyle that we cannot afford, who is going to pay for that?

Developing a welfare state, where everything is funded by tax dollars paid to the government, does not increase the productivity of the individual.

 

[Reverend Blair]

Re: Do you think an election should be called right away?

Absolutely not! We do have a responsibility, however, we also have a responsibility to the next generations.

Like breathable air, potable water, a climate that will produce crops to eat, a chance to learn, an education good enough that they can get jobs.

Money put into the environment costs money. There is no monetary benefit. There is a lifestyle benefit... we get to continue drinking water and breathing the air.

Developing and adopting new technologies has produced greater wealth snce the first homo habilis picked up a stick and poked a pre-historic horse with it. Money saved by not wasting energy is money that can go to develop other sectors of the economy. Money spent dealing with the disasters caused by severe weather due to global climate change is money wasted.

All labour produces an increase in the GDP, however, debt decreases what we can spend the money on. Unless we pay down our debt in a consistent, dedicated manner then we will hand on to our children, grand children and great grandchildren our excesses to pay for. That is unethical!

Nobody, not Paul Martin and not Jack Layton, is talking about not paying down the debt or running the debt up higher. The NDP platform is based on balanced budgets.

In that context it is unethical to give tax breaks to large corporations when the money can be used to pay for education, housing, the environment, and helping developing countries so they can afford to buy the technologies we develop as all these educated kids develop new environmentally friendly technologies.

We have lived a lifestyle that we cannot afford, who is going to pay for that?

We're paying for it right now. Since so much of that debt was run up giving welfare to the corporate buddies of the right, maybe they should bloody well pay too.

 

[DasFX]

RE: Do you think an election should be called right away?

According to a new poll I saw on Canada AM this morning, 61% say we should wait till after Gomrey reports, 33% says we should have one now and 6% don't know.

So it is clear that the will of the people say no to a snap election.

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Do you think an elect

Has anybody done a poll asking if people are tired of hearing about the Sponsorship scandal? Judging by call-in shows etc., I'd bet that number is close to 66% to. Call-in shows aren't exactly accurate though...I'd like to see a poll on it.

 

[MMMike]

Re: Do you think an election should be called right away?

How is a tax break for large corporations much needed? Do you know how much money they take in as profit? The businesses that need the tax break are still getting it. As for large corporations, the tax break is delayed not removed.

How is this not fiscally responsible? The budget is balanced and we are still making payments on the debt.

Government spending under the Paul Martin has jumped more than 15% this year alone! And he is furiously criss-crossing the country spinning our announcements of new projects. I would hardly call this fiscally responsible. He is attempting to buy your vote - with your own money!

THROW THE BUMS OUT! :evil:

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Do you think an elect

So you'd rather he gave the money to large corporations who would funnel it back to their home offices rather than spend it on Canadians?

It is, as you pointed out, our money after all.

 

[MMMike]

Re: RE: Do you think an elect

So you'd rather he gave the money to large corporations who would funnel it back to their home offices rather than spend it on Canadians?

It is, as you pointed out, our money after all.

If Martin is so interested in Canadians, why doesn't he take less money from them in the first place via lower taxes. That way people can decide for themselves what to spend it on.

Personal and corporate tax cuts will stimulate the economy, and put more money into people's pockets where it belongs.

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Do you think an elect

Increased government spending also stimulates the economy. How do you think we got out of the Great Depression?

Corporations have a well earned reputation for laying people off even when they are profitable, outsourcing jobs, taxing the existing infrastructure, resisting capital expenditures that do not provide a short-term benefit, and demanding corporate welfare in a way that looks an awful lot like extortion.

Remember a decade or so ago? Corporations were going to provide in-office daycare, become environmentally responsible, spend more on giving back to the community, help employees to become better educated, and encourage growth in the developing world? They were going to support the arts, make us all rich, and the world would be a bright and sunny place. It was the big buzz in the media...our payoff for suffering through the eighties with the corporate robber barons.

None of those things happened though. Instead we got more pollution, more layoffs, more unpaid overtime, an education system geared to turning white-collar robots, people in the developing world dying because their water had been privatized, and even more corporate graft and corruption than we'd had in the 1980's.

The tax base was shifted ever more onto the shoulders of working people while the corporations continued to shirk any responsibility to the well-being of their workers, our communities, our country, or our planet.

Corporations were given every chance to become good corporate citizens in return for everything we gave them. Instead they took the money and bought yachts for their multi-millionaire CEOs. They had their chance and showed themselves to be nothing more than greedy, soulless gits who consider empathy and compassion to be weaknesses to be exploited.

Now you want us to give them even more money, to reduce their responsibilities further. I don't think so, MMMikey. I think it's bloody well time that we made this world for the people who live in it.

 

[DasFX]

Re: RE: Do you think an elect

So you'd rather he gave the money to large corporations who would funnel it back to their home offices rather than spend it on Canadians?

It is, as you pointed out, our money after all.

If Martin is so interested in Canadians, why doesn't he take less money from them in the first place via lower taxes. That way people can decide for themselves what to spend it on.

Personal and corporate tax cuts will stimulate the economy, and put more money into people's pockets where it belongs.

Where do I fit in? I'm socially liberal, but fiscally conservative. I believe in strong social programs, but I don't believe in all these things that the NDP wants. I mean, government's job is to provide a safety net for people, not walk hand in hand with them. So many of these programs are plagued by abuse and fraud. It you tallied up the amount of wasted tax dollars from social program fraud and abuse, I'm sure it would make the sponsorship scandal seem like nothing.

As for tax cuts, sure I want them; I don't like to see half my paycheque gone in taxes. However, I don't want to sacrifice necessary institutions to pay for them.

I don't mind paying the taxes if the money is spent properly and wisely and if the programs they support don't go too far.

 

[MMMike]

Re: Do you think an election should be called right away?

Increased government spending also stimulates the economy. How do you think we got out of the Great Depression?

I've been looking for a famous quotation, something about the "dead hand of government" - I can't find it. Rev, I don't think there is much that the government can do right. I don't care what color it is. It is completely rife with inefficiencies, bloated bureacracies that only serve themselves, it is unanswerable to anyone. It is incompetent and corrupt - a black hole sucking our money with little return. We need to shrink government down radically.

 

[DasFX]

Re: Do you think an election should be called right away?

It is completely rife with inefficiencies, bloated bureacracies that only serve themselves, it is unanswerable to anyone. It is incompetent and corrupt - a black hole sucking our money with little return. We need to shrink government down radically.

I agree, there is way too much overlap and then each level tries to out do the other and in the end nothing gets done. There are too many lawyer types in government, and all they know how to do is manipulate, talk around and avoid issues. How come there aren't any science based politicians, folks that think based on logic and fact.

I'm completely baffled how these guys (of all parties) organize commissions and committee and then act in the opposite way of their findings.