Is our popular understanding of the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) correct, as being a predominantly cold era lasting 500 years, leavened by a few brief warm spells?
The canonical description of the Little Ice Age is reflected in this quote [link]:
‘The Little Ice Age is a period between about 1300 and 1870 during which Europe and North America were subjected to much colder winters than during the 20th century. The period can be divided in two phases, the first beginning around 1300 and continuing until the late 1400s. There was a slightly warmer period in the 1500s, after which the climate deteriorated substantially. The period between 1600 and 1800 marks the height of the Little Ice Age.’
The nature of the LIA has been a matter of some contention. The beginning, end and overall severity of this period has been hotly contended by scholars such as Groves, Fagan, Lamb etc., though its extent is thought to roughly coincide with the period 1300-1850 as stated in the title of Professor Brian Fagan’s excellent book ‘The Little Ice Age-How Climate made History 1300-1850’.
Even more hotly disputed is its geographic spread –regional, hemispheric or global.
Some five years ago I started a project I termed the ‘Little Ice Age Thermometers’ to investigate the likely extent and depth of the LIA worldwide, but with a prime focus on the UK, through Central England Temperature, (CET) to 1659, compiled by Manley and now maintained by the Met Office, we have instrumental and numerous other written and physical records reaching through much of the LIA.
The purpose of this paper is to determine the extent and severity of the climate in the area broadly defined as Central England, for the individual years during the period commencing 1538 and portray it graphically in a number of ways. In order to maintain an interesting and largely non-technical narrative, the historic context, graphics and comments are in section 1, whilst conclusions and observations are in section 2. Finally, the more technical background to determining the temperature profile of each year is mentioned in Section 3, together with a variety of important caveats, additional observations, references and links that are integral to this article.
The temperature data and related articles arising from the Little Ice Age Thermometers project collected to date are here [link].
In 2011 I carried out a reconstruction that extended CET from 1659 to 1538 thereby incorporating another part of the epoch, in particular that cold part of the latter half of the 16th century made famous in Breughel’s paintings [link]. The calculations and numerous references relating to this article are here [link].
Here is the graph from ‘The Long Slow Thaw’ starting in 1538 which was updated to 2014 to show the recent uptick-this was said to be the warmest year in the record.
lots more here
The Intermittent Little Ice Age | Climate Etc.
The canonical description of the Little Ice Age is reflected in this quote [link]:
‘The Little Ice Age is a period between about 1300 and 1870 during which Europe and North America were subjected to much colder winters than during the 20th century. The period can be divided in two phases, the first beginning around 1300 and continuing until the late 1400s. There was a slightly warmer period in the 1500s, after which the climate deteriorated substantially. The period between 1600 and 1800 marks the height of the Little Ice Age.’
The nature of the LIA has been a matter of some contention. The beginning, end and overall severity of this period has been hotly contended by scholars such as Groves, Fagan, Lamb etc., though its extent is thought to roughly coincide with the period 1300-1850 as stated in the title of Professor Brian Fagan’s excellent book ‘The Little Ice Age-How Climate made History 1300-1850’.
Even more hotly disputed is its geographic spread –regional, hemispheric or global.
Some five years ago I started a project I termed the ‘Little Ice Age Thermometers’ to investigate the likely extent and depth of the LIA worldwide, but with a prime focus on the UK, through Central England Temperature, (CET) to 1659, compiled by Manley and now maintained by the Met Office, we have instrumental and numerous other written and physical records reaching through much of the LIA.
The purpose of this paper is to determine the extent and severity of the climate in the area broadly defined as Central England, for the individual years during the period commencing 1538 and portray it graphically in a number of ways. In order to maintain an interesting and largely non-technical narrative, the historic context, graphics and comments are in section 1, whilst conclusions and observations are in section 2. Finally, the more technical background to determining the temperature profile of each year is mentioned in Section 3, together with a variety of important caveats, additional observations, references and links that are integral to this article.
The temperature data and related articles arising from the Little Ice Age Thermometers project collected to date are here [link].
In 2011 I carried out a reconstruction that extended CET from 1659 to 1538 thereby incorporating another part of the epoch, in particular that cold part of the latter half of the 16th century made famous in Breughel’s paintings [link]. The calculations and numerous references relating to this article are here [link].
Here is the graph from ‘The Long Slow Thaw’ starting in 1538 which was updated to 2014 to show the recent uptick-this was said to be the warmest year in the record.
lots more here
The Intermittent Little Ice Age | Climate Etc.
