In its annual global outlook - which gets gloomier by the year - the IEA said that if Opec stumps up the cash, its production will grow from 36mbpd (million barrels per day) last year to 46mbpd in 2015, and 61mbpd by 2030. This would see the cartel's share of global production jump from 42 per cent now to 52 per cent by 2030. Analysts forecast that supply from non-Opec countries will remain steady over the next 20 years at just under 50mbpd, with small increases coming from non-conventional oil such as biofuels. This puts the onus on Opec to meet almost the entire forecast 37 per cent, or 32mbpd, increase in demand by 2030.
But there is no guarantee that this extra production will come on stream as predicted. Opec estimates that $2.4 trillion will have to be spent globally to meet production targets. Much of this will have to be borne by the cartel. But it admits that its own estimates of how much it will have to spend between now and 2010 alone vary by as much as $50bn. The range of uncertainty in spending estimates increases to $140bn by 2015. These wild variations are hardly reassuring