Good day Machjo, in the last federal election, 37 people out of 100 voted conservative, that is a minority that will never become a majority. After Harper finishes spilling the red ink the 37 people who voted for the Conservatives may think twice in repeating that bad move, parking their precious vote with incompetend inconomists like Harper.
Bear in mind though that those who voted for Harper were likely either:
1. True Blue Conservatives who jump when the party says jump.
2. Centrists who tossed a coin and went Conservative.
3. Libertarians who voted Conservative as a strategic vote.
4. Christian Heritage Party Members who were fooled by Harper's church-going propaganda (seems that lying is OK though) and voted Conservative as a strategic vote (so much for voting conscience, eh?).
5. Any other member of the right, moderate or extreme.
6. Intelligent voters who don't vote for party but for candidate and found the Conservative candidate for their riding to truly be a man of character (though I don't like Harper, I'm sure there are a few good Conservatives in the bunch. In fact, had Scott Reid been running in my riding, who knows, even though I'd normally not vote Conservative, I might have voted for him. The Conservative in my riding was an idiot!).
So if the Conservative Party goes down, it doesn't automatically mean that that 37% will suddenly start voting Liberal. Rather, they'd all go their separate ways along the divisions pointed out above. Some would just keep voting for candidates of character. Others would vote Conservative even if they knew their cadidate would lose. Others would experiment with other right wing parties, some would vote Green (the most economically conservative of the major leftist parties), and of course a few might go out on a limb and try out further left (for example, a fiscal conservative who is a pacifist could potentially vote Conservative just as easily as he could vote NDP!). But the collapse of the Conservative Party would in no way guarantee that that 37% would just all blindly shift to the Liberal Party like a bunch of bleating sheep.
In Fact, the Conservative Party's main threats at the moment would likely be the Libertarians as an alternative conservative party, the Christian Heritage (a Christian Right Party), and the Green Party (the party to its immediate left, the Liberal Party being to the left of the Greens). Sure the Liberals would get some votes, and might even form a majority government owing to vote splitting on the right. But that 37% would likely still be voting right for the most part, excluding a small percentage that votes candidate (they could just as easily vote for a member of the Libertarian Party as they could Communist if the guy's got some original ideas and can be trusted), or that has both right and left streaks in him.