Your Viewer's Guide to Nov. 2 Election Night

Icarus27k

Council Member
Apr 4, 2010
1,508
7
38
Poll closing times are as follows.


  • 5:00AM EDT - Northern Marianas
  • 6:00AM EDT- Guam
  • 6:00PM EDT - Indiana (Eastern time zone) and Kentucky (Eastern time zone)
  • 7:00PM EDT - Indiana (Central time zone), Kentucky (Central time zone), Florida (Eastern time zone), Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia
  • 7:30PM EDT - North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
  • 8:00PM EDT - Florida (Central time zone), Michigan (Eastern time zone), South Dakota (Central time zone), Texas (Central time zone), Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee
  • 8:30PM EDT - Arkansas
  • 9:00PM EDT - Michigan (Central time zone), South Dakota (Mountain time zone), Texas (Mountain time zone), Kansas (Central time zone), Colorado, New York, Rhode Island, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Wyoming.
  • 10:00PM EDT - Kansas (Mountain time zone), North Dakota (Central time zone), Idaho (Mountain time zone), Oregon (Mountain time zone), Arizona, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah.
  • 11:00PM EDT- North Dakota (Mountain time zone), Idaho (Pacific time zone), Oregon (Pacific time zone), California, Washington
  • 12:00AM EDT- Alaska (Alaska time zone), Hawaii
  • 1:00AM EDT - Alaska (Aleutian time zone)

The 6PM - 7PM hour is the first with pivotal races for control of Congress. The House districts that should be watched are KY-3, KY-6, and IN-9. All are Democratic-held seats. I'm pretty sure KY-3 is going to remain Democratic, but if it doesn't that's a number one sign that it's going to be a horrible night for Democrats (like, more horrible than people are predicting now). It wouldn't be as surprising to see KY-6 change from Democratic to Republican, and as far as I can tell, it's not as important to Democratic hopes as KY-3 is. But Democrats can be satisfied for a brief time if they keep it in their party. IN-9 is a complete tossup. I'm suspecting the Republicans will take it over, but it's a faint suspicion.
 
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Icarus27k

Council Member
Apr 4, 2010
1,508
7
38
We will be watching.

Meantime, here is an article in The New York Times:

Soros: I Can't Stop a Republican "Avalanche" - NYTimes.com
Of course, Soros isn't an election analyst and "avalanche" is relative. Unlike a lot of election analysts, I'm not convinced the Republicans are going to win control of the House. Let alone the Senate. Maybe an "avalanche" in Soros' mind is a Republican gain in the House of up to just winning a majority, but falling a little short.

My calculations for the House right now have the Republicans having a net gain of about three dozen seats (impressive, no doubt), but in itself not enough to win back control. In addition to these, there's a bunch of tossups that could go either way, and even a handful of the three dozen aren't shoo-ins for the Republicans.

In the Senate, I don't foresee Republicans having the net gain of ten seats that they will need to win back control of that chamber. Republican net gains I am sure of are: Indiana, North Dakota, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Republican net gains that could happen, but they could realistically go either way are West Virginia, Illinois, Colorado, and Nevada. Republican hopes for net gains that have no chance in hell, despite what pundits are saying are Connecticut, Delaware, California, and Washington.

The first two groups added together would be a Republican net gain of 9, which if it came to pass, would split the Senate 50-50. However, I'm fairly confident several in the second group (West Virginia, Illinois, and Nevada) are going to remain Democratic. That would be a Republican net gain of 6, giving the new Senate a 53-47 Democratic majority.
 

Icarus27k

Council Member
Apr 4, 2010
1,508
7
38
Direct from NBC's Chuck Todd:

First Read - First Thoughts: How to spot a GOP wave

*** How to spot a GOP wave: On Election Night, which takes place eight days from today, we'll likely be able to tell very early if Republicans are on the verge of taking back the House -- and possibly more. Polls close completely at 7:00 pm ET in five states with a handful of key races: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Virginia. (And we'll begin to see returns in Indiana at 6:00 pm ET, when many polling places close in the state.) Let's start with IN-9, which has become the quintessential swing district because Rep. Baron Hill (D) lost the seat in '04, but won it back in '06 and was re-elected in '08. This race is No. 42 in our House rankings -- right about the number the GOP will need to take back the House (because Dems will likely pick up two to four seats). So if this race is called for Hill's challenger, Tea Party-backed Todd Young, you know it's going to be a good night for the GOP.
*** Looking at IN, GA, and KY: Another place to watch is GA-8, because if Republicans are winning it, they could very well be on their way to a gain of 50-plus seats. Rep. Jim Marshall (D) won that district with just 51% in 2006 and 57% in '08. The other early House contest to watch is in KY-6, which could forecast a big GOP tidal wave if Republicans are winning it -- or are even running close. The congressman representing that district is Ben Chandler (D), who won his previous contests with 65% (in '08) and 85% (in '06). Other races to watch in that first hour: GA-2, IN-2, SC-5, VA-2, VA-5, VA-9, and VA-11. And closing at 7:30 are the key races in North Carolina (NC-2, NC-7, NC-8, NC-11), in Ohio (OH-1, OH-6, OH-13, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18), and in West Virginia (WV-1, WV-3). If Republicans are winning a majority of these 20 races, say hello to Speaker John Boehner.












And my tweets to Chuck Todd:




@chucktodd Ds win KY6, IN2, GA2, VA9, VA11, NC2, NC7, NC11, OH6, OH13, OH18, WV1, WV3. Rs win IN9, GA8, SC5, VA2, VA5, NC8, OH1, OH15, OH16


@chucktodd There. Sorry if I spoiled the suspense, but it's true.