Quote: Originally Posted by Walter
...Look up Stuxnet.
Good point... but Stuxnet's impact on Iran's nuclear program is overrated.
I'm sure Stuxnet slowed Iran down and caused $millions in damage... but in the overall scheme, it didn't have a big impact. Iran has thousands of spare centrifuges... more capacity than it needs and has actually shut down entire cascades due to over capacity.
On 15 February 2011 (ISIS) released a report concluding that:
Assuming Iran exercises caution, Stuxnet is unlikely to destroy more centrifuges at the Natanz plant. Iran likely cleaned the malware from its control systems. To prevent re-infection, Iran will have to exercise special caution since so many computers in Iran contain Stuxnet. Although Stuxnet appears to be designed to destroy centrifuges at the Natanz facility, destruction was by no means total. Moreover, Stuxnet did not lower the production of LEU during 2010. LEU quantities could have certainly been greater, and Stuxnet could be an important part of the reason why they did not increase significantly. Nonetheless, there remain important questions about why Stuxnet destroyed only 1,000 centrifuges. One observation is that it may be harder to destroy centrifuges by use of cyber attacks than often believed.[72]
Stuxnet - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In February 2012, Iran started using domestically produced 20% enriched uranium in its medical isotope reactor. If Iran can manufacture 20% LEU fuel rods, then likely they can also make HEU (greater than 20%) which is required for nuclear weapon components.
I sincerely doubt that Iran will cross the 20% enrichment limit. If they wanted to, they could have done this years ago.
1) The United States began its atomic bomb program in 1942. By August 1945 they had half a dozen bombs of 2 different types [1]. In just 3 years, with no precedent, with no confidence that such a thing was even possible, the USA had as many as 6 bombs. Some Plutonium based and some Uranium based. Of which they used a Uranium bomb on Hiroshima, and a Plutonium one on Nagasaki. That, with 1940′s technology and knowledge, or the lack thereof.
2) The Soviet Union began its atomic bomb project in earnest in 1945, after seeing the effects of the American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and no longer having the burden of the 2nd World War. They exploded their first bomb in August 1949, just 4 years after serious initiation [2]. Again, using 1940′s technology, while trying to rebuild the nation with limited resources.
3) Britain began concerted development of its atomic bomb in January 1947. It exploded its first bomb less than 6 years later in October 1952 [3]. Again, using the technology of 65 years ago, and after a debilitating war.
4) France began its program in 1949. In February 1960, just over 10 years later it exploded its first atomic bomb [4].
5) China began its bomb program in earnest in 1960. Just 4 years later it exploded its first bomb in October 1964 [5].
6) Israel began its bomb program in 1961. By 1967, just 6 years later it had produced its first bombs [6].
7) India realistically began its program in 1956 with its first reactor. It exploded its first bomb in 1974 less than 18 years later [7].
Pakistan’s program became serious in late 1965 with its first nuclear reactor. By early 1983, just 17 years later it had its first viable atomic bombs.
9) North Korea began its bomb development in 1989 with its first reactor. By 2006, just 17 year later it had exploded its first bomb.
Iran has a highly educated, technical, and capable population, military, and social infrastructure. It ranks 17th in the world in regards to Purchasing Power Parity (PPP;
Economy of Iran - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ). Iran has many universities and technical colleges with thousands of graduates per annum. It has the largest auto manufacturers of the Middle East. It has ship yards and steel mills. Vast indigenously staffed oil and gas wells and refineries and petrochemical plants for domestic production as well as export. It has orbital rocket and satellite design and manufacturing facilities. It builds its own dams and hydro electricity machinery and power stations and is the biggest exporter of electrical energy in the Middle East. It has an extensive medical research and development and pharmaceutical industry. It builds and maintains an extensive modern roads, railways and travel network. It has a variety of agricultural produce and processing facilities. It has its own aircraft manufacturing factories. Its own military manufacturing industry, including missiles, jet fighters, helicopters, destroyers and submarines. Furthermore, it has uranium mines and enrichment and processing plants, as well as nuclear research reactors for the past 45 years (since 1967). And that list is merely a synopsis. Iran has recently been ranked as third among industrial developing countries, after China and India [11].
The chances that Iran hasn't been able to make a nuclear bomb after doing nuclear research since 1967 because of incompetence, lack capability, lack of resources... is extremely unlikely. The only reason why Iran hasn't developed a nuclear weapon is lack of interest. (no doubt as a result of outside pressure and threats)
Last edited by earth_as_one; Sep 12th, 2012 at 01:08 PM..
