Electoral College Model Predicts Romney Will Win Big in 2012

Locutus

Locutus

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Jun 18, 2007
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(And It’s Been Right Since 1980)


Michael Berry and Ken Bickers of the University of Colorado System Predict Romney to Win 320 Electoral Votes in November | TheBlaze.com


Two University of Colorado professors, one from Boulder and one from Denver, have put together an Electoral College forecast model to predict who will win the 2012 presidential election and the result is bad news for Barack Obama. The model points to a Mitt Romney victory in 2012.

Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, the two political science professors who devised the prediction model, say that it has correctly forecast every winner of the electoral race since 1980.

"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," Bickers said in a press statement.


more omfg here


Electoral College Prediction Model Points To A Mitt Romney Win In 2012
 
damngrumpy

damngrumpy

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Mar 16, 2005
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It way too early to accurately predict what will happen in the electoral collage.
Trending is one thing actual voting is something else. Truman is a prime and
I mean prime example of that. This election is somewhat like that one. The
people were predicting Harry was done, even Harry thought Harry was done.
In the morning different story.
Many voters are not happy job numbers are bad and there is a cloud of doom
hanging over the land. People state they are going to do something and then
there is that last day of sober second thought. Compare the two, Obama is
still pound for pound a better choice than Romney. Romney reminds me of a
minor Wise Guy, he made his money doing things to American workers and now
he wants to do something for American workers.
Yes Obama changed the social structure of the society and the middle class I
predict will come out to defend the only good thing they achieved Medicare.
In the end the middle class and seniors will decide this thing and if that does
happen Obama will slip past the Mr Boredom and Mr Showboat of the GOP
 
WLDB

WLDB

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Jun 24, 2011
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The electoral college system is a very strange one. Doesnt seem to make much sense today.
 
Goober

Goober

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EagleSmack said:
I was talking about the joyous atmosphere in here over some poll that put Obama ahead of Romney.
Click to expand...
From what I read it is a tight race- It should have been a cake walk for the Repubs but...................

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com...-bad-government-pushes-u-s-to-the-cliff-edge/

A new Congressional Budget Office report on the outlook of the U.S. economy reads like an indictment of ten years of awful government.

The report warned that the U.S. is heading for a “fiscal cliff,” and without action by Congress Americans are facing a renewed recession, which would cost at least two million jobs on top of the millions already out of work. First over the cliff would be the middle class, which another study says is already the brunt of the “worst decade in modern history.” Rich people are doing fine, the poor are still looked after. It’s working stiffs who are taking it in the neck.

It’s interesting — if that’s the word — that the CBO suggests congressional action is required, given that so much of the problem results from the actions of legislators who might as well have had holes in their heads. If you’re old enough to recall, the last few years of the Clinton administration, sleazy as it may have been, seemed like relatively good economic times. A balanced budget, low unemployment (3.8% in 2000, compared to 8.3% today), a positive outlook. A decade later, a Pew Research Center study says 85% of middle-class Americans feel life is worse today than it was then, and aren’t optimistic about it getting better.

What a mess. But just to make sure it got worse, George W. Bush — supposedly a tight-fisted Republican — went on a spending spree. Two wars; a giant, ten-year-unfunded tax cut; a big unfunded drug entitlement program, and bye-bye balanced budget, hello gargantuan deficit. By the time Barack Obama took office he was handed a full-fledged disaster, and reacted by pouring even more borrowed money into it. That might not have been entirely a bad idea if he hadn’t decided to let Nancy Pelosi and her cast of congressional Democrats decide how to spend it, which meant he might as well have set it alight for all the good it did. Fed-up voters reacted by stuffing Congress with Tea Party members, single-mindedly devoted to imposing gridlock on Washington, at which they have been a notable success.
 
EagleSmack

EagleSmack

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Goober said:
From what I read it is a tight race- It should have been a cake walk for the Repubs but...................
.
Click to expand...

It will be a tight race. I've no idea who'll win.

I do know one thing. IF Romney wins the Dems will accuse the GOP of stealing the election.
 
Bar Sinister

Bar Sinister

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Jan 17, 2010
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Goodness. I wonder where this prediction came from? Researchers using the same method get different results. Guess we'll have to wait until November after all.
2012 Elections, Electoral College Projection - Election Projection



Presidential Race Stats Romney Obama Projected
Electoral Votes 235 303 2008
Electoral Votes 173 365 Projected
Change +62 -62 Projected
Popular Vote 48.9 49.5 2008
Popular Vote 45.60% 52.87% Projected
States 25 26 2008
States 22 29
 
EagleSmack

EagleSmack

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The same group that correctly predicted all the electoral elections since 1980.

But don't panic BarS... it's only a prediction.
 
Kreskin

Kreskin

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Feb 23, 2006
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This is anyone's race. I don't think anyone will be counting any chickens until about 10pm election night.
 
H

Highball

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Jan 28, 2010
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The Pollsters are paid to 1. Answer a specific question. 2. Go to an area where the outcome of the Poll will be predictable and 3. Remember that in 2008 there were four Polling organizations with a track record. Now there are more than 30 and 24 of them have no track record which means a "New Startup" group. In my area all I know is the working people feel they have been screwed by the two previous Presidents and now they are talking being distrustful of any on this Ballot.
 
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