Confirmatory Bias in Science

darkbeaver

the universe is electric
Jan 26, 2006
41,035
201
63
RR1 Distopia 666 Discordia
It seems scientists should be alerted to the human propensity for confirmatory bias!


Confirmatory Bias in Science

"This refers to the tendency for humans to seek out, attend to, and sometimes embellish experiences that support or ‘confirm’ their beliefs. Confirmatory experiences are selectively welcomed and granted easy credibility. Disconfirmatory experiences, on the other hand, are often ignored, discredited, or treated with obvious defensiveness... the most costly expression of this tendency may well be among scientists themselves…

One study found that the vast majority of scientists drawn from a national sample showed a strong preference for “confirmatory” experiments. Over half of these scientists did not even recognize disconfirmation (modus tollens) as a valid reasoning form! In another study the logical reasoning skills of 30 scientists were compared to those of 15 relatively uneducated Protestant ministers. Where there were performance differences, they tended to favor the ministers. Confirmatory bias was prevalent in both groups, but the ministers used disconfirmatory logic almost twice as often as the scientists did. The costs of this cognitive bias are perhaps nowhere as serious as in the area of scientific publication.” — Michael J. Mahoney, Cognitive Therapy and Research, Vol. 1, No. 2, 1977, pp. 161-175.


But despite scientists’ beliefs, there is an alternative to the gravity-only assumption of consensus cosmogony. Unfortunately astrophysicists are not trained in plasma discharge phenomena so that they might recognize this fact. As in many other scientific disciplines, the inertia of tradition, institutionalization and specialization to the brink of irrelevance has produced terminal tunnel vision. Astrophysics is hamstrung by an unreal but mathematically tractable view of plasma behavior in space. That view suits the dominant mathematical theorists but denies real physics. The specialty is called ‘magnetohydrodynamics.’ The name betrays the fundamentally incorrect approach. Magnetohydrodynamics treats space plasma as a mysteriously magnetized gas. So we hear of stellar “winds” and gaseous “shock fronts.” The solar wind “buffets” against the Earth’s magnetic field.

The ‘father’ of the subject, Hannes Alfvén, notoriously dismissed his own invention in his Nobel Lecture of December 11, 1970. He warned of the consequences:

“these [magnetohydrodynamic] theories had initially very little contact with experimental plasma physics, and all the awkward and complicated phenomena which had been treated in the study of discharges in gases were simply neglected…

The cosmical plasma physics of today is far less advanced than the thermonuclear research physics. It is to some extent the playground of theoreticians who have never seen a plasma in a laboratory. Many of them still believe in formulae which we know from laboratory experiments to be wrong. The astrophysical correspondence to the thermonuclear crisis has not yet come.

I think it is evident now that in certain respects the first approach to the physics of cosmical plasmas has been a failure. It turns out that in several important cases this approach has not given even a first approximation to truth but led into dead-end streets from which we now have to turn back.”
http://www.holoscience.com/news.php?article=7y7d3dn5&pf=YES
 

AmberEyes

Sunshine
Dec 19, 2006
495
36
28
Vancouver Island
Nope. Energy and mass are one and the same my friend :) Just different states of being... kinda like gas, water and solid. Only ones purely "particle" and the other is purely "wave."

The funny thing about astrophysics is that nobody can understand it but the astrophysicists themselves. The names and concepts are rather unique to the science itself.. more from historical reasons than anything else. Though one thing I do agree on: a lot of theoretical physicists don't understand the experiment they helped create simply because they aren't given the time for it. A lot of the world's greatest scientists theorized and tested their own theories, and thus understood better than anyone what it was they discovered or proved.
 

Spade

Ace Poster
Nov 18, 2008
12,822
49
48
9
Aether Island
Nothing then, and nothing now! So, all cosmology is, is making something out of nothing!

All I'm really certain of is that Cliffy sometimes fluctuates out of the vacuum and we reply.
 

MHz

Time Out
Mar 16, 2007
41,030
43
48
Red Deer AB
Before I stick my foot in my mouth, is energy the result of matter having motion? Mass at rest has zero energy, mass in motion is energy or at least has energy, the amount of energy present at any given moment is based on a mathematical constant

If everything in our universe was from a singular event (the big Bang) then would have all that matter been moving in the opposite direction it was right after the moment that was the very beginning of expansion.

A singular law would seem to apply to something no matter the size. A star is born, it burns for a period of time, it expands and never reforms. A black hole gathers mass. Since that mass has energy (because of motion) does it still have motion after it passes the event horizon or even further when it ceases to give light that we can see. Simply put, does mass have motion in a black hole. If that motion ever stopped where does the energy go.
Why wouldn't the big bang work along those same principles, only on a much larger scale, it was swallowing black holes (holding all that mass it has collected).
Was the matter still collapsing just before it blew? Something that is (for lack of a better word)'infinitely' dense has mass (weight would mean an ability to draw masses of a lighter weight ), mass has gravity.

A black hole would be similar to a star that doesn't have enough mass/energy to emit visible light yet(along with everything else it emits), or in the case of the big bang, explode.
 

darkbeaver

the universe is electric
Jan 26, 2006
41,035
201
63
RR1 Distopia 666 Discordia
Never mind about the ****ing universe, if the eggheads describing it use less disconfirmatory than relatively uneducated protestant ministers then what they are using is faith. They keep claiming confirmation of the big bang theroy where there is none. The illogic of dark matter and dark energy is a case in point, they maintain that because we cannot account for the totals of either, it therefore must be hiding somewhere rather than question the basics of there theroy.
Confirmatory Bias in Science

"This refers to the tendency for humans to seek out, attend to, and sometimes embellish experiences that support or ‘confirm’ their beliefs. Confirmatory experiences are selectively welcomed and granted easy credibility. Disconfirmatory experiences, on the other hand, are often ignored, discredited, or treated with obvious defensiveness... the most costly expression of this tendency may well be among scientists themselves…

One study found that the vast majority of scientists drawn from a national sample showed a strong preference for “confirmatory” experiments. Over half of these scientists did not even recognize disconfirmation (modus tollens) as a valid reasoning form! In another study the logical reasoning skills of 30 scientists were compared to those of 15 relatively uneducated Protestant ministers. Where there were performance differences, they tended to favor the ministers. Confirmatory bias was prevalent in both groups, but the ministers used disconfirmatory logic almost twice as often as the scientists did. The costs of this cognitive bias are perhaps nowhere as serious as in the area of scientific publication.” — Michael J. Mahoney, Cognitive Therapy and Research, Vol. 1, No. 2, 1977, pp. 161-175.

How many people who had different ideas were pushed out of the system by convention through the years?
 
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