2008 Hurricane season

[Tonington]

It's only April still, but this is the time when the first forecasts for the hurricane season come out. They will be refined in the coming months, as historically, April forecasts have about the same skill as Maggie the monkey from the NHL predictions made at TSN, perhaps even worse.

Dr. Jeff Masters has a blog devoted to meteorology and the like. In the past, I have found he gives a very good explanation of the science on this matter, and he has discussed the forecast here.

This past week, Dr. Bill Gray and his team from Colorado State have submitted their early predictions for the hurricane season. Again, basically little to no skill at all from these April forecasts.

It will be interesting to see how the predictions evolve over this season.

So here's the April Forecast:

• 15 named storms
• 8 hurricanes
• 4 intense hurricanes

Those are above average numbers. Here's the reasoning:

1) Above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern subtropical Atlantic and cooler-than-normal SSTs in the South Atlantic have weakened the Bermuda-Azores High. This has resulted in lower surface wind speeds over the tropical Atlantic, and these weak trade winds are expected to persist into hurricane season. Weak trade winds reduce the amount of evaporative cooling of the ocean, resulting in warmer SSTs and lower surface pressures during hurricane season. Hurricanes like to form in an environment with low surface pressures and high SSTs.

2) Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña or neutral years. The current strong La Niña event has begun weakening noticeably in the past few weeks. However, there is probably not time for a full-fledged El Niño event to replace it by hurricane season, and it is expected that we will have weak La Niña or neutral conditions this hurricane season. None of the computer models are forecasting a switch over to El Niño conditions this year (Figure 1). Keep in mind, though, that the accuracy of these long range models is poor, particularly for forecasts made in March and April.

3) We are in the midst of an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

 

[darkbeaver]

I'm getting into the wind harvesting biz so I'd like a really nasty blustery hurc season.

 

[Tonington]

Colchester county I believe is looking into that for the Municipalities operations. Better have good brakes though is all I can say Beav

 

[darkbeaver]

Colchester county I believe is looking into that for the Municipalities operations. Better have good brakes though is all I can say Beav

Electric brakes and automatic yawing. The little one I built last year took every wind we had with no problems. I'm on number three right now, should get about 1500 watts at 10mph wind speed, of course that's just enough to get the coffee percolator going but lots of expensive batteries will fix that reserve problem. Then I can start building particle beam weapons.

 

[Tonington]

Electric brakes and automatic yawing. The little one I built last year took every wind we had with no problems. I'm on number three right now, should get about 1500 watts at 10mph wind speed, of course that's just enough to get the coffee percolator going but lots of expensive batteries will fix that reserve problem. Then I can start building particle beam weapons.

Particle weapons ehh? A darkbeavers revolution?

 

[Praxius]

Above average hurricane season would be a welcome site, but overall I think it'll be similar to last years, due to the last two winters we had. Colder winters or bigger hurricanes are both good in my books.

 

[MikeyDB]

Hey Beve...

Canada's had particle beam weapons for years.....

They're little round four inch frozen pieces of rubber that get shot off sticks at seriously padded morons standing on frozen water....

 

[Tonington]

So, the early predictions weren't far off. Paloma is set to become a hurricane in the evening hours tonight, which would mean that to date, the 2008 hurricane season has had:

16 named storms, 1 more than predicted
8 hurricanes, the number predicted
4 major hurricanes, the number predicted

This is above the 1950-2005 average of:

11.0 named storms
6.2 hurricanes
2.7 major hurricanes

 

[shadowshiv]

Particle weapons ehh? A darkbeavers revolution?

Darkbeaver. A rebel without a clu..., I mean cause.:lol::lol:

 

[shadowshiv]

So, the early predictions weren't far off. Paloma is set to become a hurricane in the evening hours tonight, which would mean that to date, the 2008 hurricane season has had:

16 named storms, 1 more than predicted
8 hurricanes, the number predicted
4 major hurricanes, the number predicted

This is above the 1950-2005 average of:

11.0 named storms
6.2 hurricanes
2.7 major hurricanes

It just goes to show you how mighty Mother Nature can be sometimes, eh Tonington?8O

 

[Tonington]

Yup, and she's a moody wench as well!

 

[shadowshiv]

Yup, and she's a moody wench as well!

Kinda like my ex-girlfriend!:lol::lol:

Ba-da-BOOM!

Oi! I am a dead man.:lol:8O

 

[Tonington]

She's your ex...what's there to worry about?

 

[shadowshiv]

She's your ex...what's there to worry about?

I'm thinking more along the lines of the lovely women of CC! They might not like hearing a woman being called a moody wench!;-):lol:

 

[Tonington]

I'm sure they'll get over it. And if not, I be tossed into the tempest! :S

 

[shadowshiv]

I'm sure they'll get over it. And if not, I be tossed into the tempest! :S

I can think of worse fates, my friend. I can think of worse fates.

 

[Tonington]

So, this coming Sunday, the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season officially comes to an end. The new method of pre-season estimates that Dr. Grey's team in Colorado used, proved to be quite acceptable, though this is just one season

This season marked a return to the active period since 1995, after two relatively lack luster years.

Some of the stats:

• 6th most named storms
• 9th most major hurricanes
• 24th highest ACE (accumulated cyclone energy)
• 25th most hurricanes

Some other notable characteristics of this season:

• The longest lived July hurricane, Bertha lasted for 7.75 days as a hurricane.
• Second strongest November hurricane, Paloma @145 mph max sustained winds.
• First time major hurricanes have been observed in five separate months.
• Fourth costliest season on record for America @ $21 billion. For comparison, Katrina cost $81 billion.
• Cuba was pummeled with three major hurricanes, for the first time ever in a single observed season(shockingly) and at a cost of $10 billion.

Some good news, New Orleans was knocked around by Gustav, with storm surge readings on the tidal gauges of up to 12.5 feet, with winds up to 110 mph, and the levees remained intact and functional.

The drought conditions in central Florida and some other areas of the Southeast was relieved. Lake Okeechobee read 15 feet after the rains from Hurricane Fay dropped 10-15 inches, putting the lake back at nearly average depth.


So, the early season predictions turned out quite well. Will this coming spring forecast be as accurate? Time will tell.