Clarifying the scientific naming convention- theories

Tonington

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Oct 27, 2006
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On this forum, and some others I visit, there has been some confusion over the hierarchy of the scientific terminology, and how they differ from common usage of the words.

Not all lay people are confused by this system, but some are. Things like "just a theory" are used in the common usage to mean a speculation. But when dealing with the scientific usage of the term, theory takes on a whole different meaning. So let's examine what a hypothesis, theory and law really are in the sciences.

Hypothesis

A hypothesis is like an educated guess. Based on observations, a statement is proposed that seeks to explain phenomena that have not yet been demonstrated. A hypothesis must be testable, it must be falsifiable. A hypothesis may be demonstrated to be true by experiments and observations from those experiments, but at a later date shown to be false through further examination and experimentation. As data and observations accumulate, a hypothesis may fall be the way side, or become a theory.

Theory

When a hypothesis has advanced into a theory, it is because there is considerable evidence supporting that explanation, by different researchers, multiple times. A theory is also characterized by related observations, which can come from many different disciplines. What this means is no one scientist can create a theory. They can create a hypothesis, and their hypothesis may become theory if many independent researchers can replicate those results. The ultimate test of a theory is predictive power.

Law

A law is similar to a theory in that both are generally accepted as being true in the scientific community. The differences are that a theory can be more complex, with multiple lines of data from different fields, while a law is a simple expression of a single action. A law is like a mathematical postulation in that respect. To be a law certain conditions need to be met: absolute, simple, true and universal. That is, it must be unaffected by anything in the universe, expressed as a simple mathematical equation, have never been contradicted by repeated observations, and applied everywhere across the universe.


So, in common usage, a theory is much more like a scientific hypothesis, more so than it is like a scientific theory. Theories in science are only developed by the scientific method. Simple musings don't make a theory. "Just a theory", well I guess a degree people hang on their office walls is "just a piece of paper."
 

karrie

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Jan 6, 2007
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While you're at it T, could you clarify for the people here the difference between correlation and cause? :smile:
 

Tonington

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Sure, a correlation is a relationship between two variables, how they occur in tandem. It has strength and direction. Strengths go from -1 to +1. Zero would be no correlation, essentially just pure random data as far as the two are concerned. A positive correlation would be if for every extra day of gestation in the mothers womb, a baby calf will be 2.2 pounds heavier at weaning weight. Negative would be for every extra day in the womb, the calf is 1.9 pounds lighter at weaning weight.

The strength of that relationship depends on the coefficient that is determined for the correlation. At 0, there is no correlation between the two variable. A weak correlation would be about 0.1 to 0.29, a moderate would be 0.3 to 0.49 and a strong correlation would be 0.5 to 1 for both directions of correlation.

But, just because two variables exist together in this relationship, doesn't mean that one causes the other. For example, if we found that over the course of one month, our television viewing times per day correlated to precipitation, even if strongly correlated, doesn't mean one causes another. There is no physical basis for that assumption. Causality is shown by carefully controlled scientific experiments.

I was going to use another example, a paper called Sunspots, GDP and the stock market. But that's a little more complex for such a simple example. The gist is, although there is correlation between sunspots and both economic indices, and very high as well (0.9996 and 0.9967), there is no physical basis for the relationship. Just simple randomness.
 

karrie

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Jan 6, 2007
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One of my faves is the correlation between foot size and the size of one's vocabulary. lol.