4.5 Billion people could die from Global Warming

I think not
Over 4.5 Billion people could die from Global Warming-related causes by 2012
Hydrate hypothesis illuminates growing climate change alarm

Compiled by John Stokes

A recent scientific theory called the "hydrate hypothesis" says that historical global warming cycles have been caused by a feedback loop, where melting permafrost methane clathrates (also known as "hydrates") spur local global warming, leading to further melting of clathrates and bacterial growth.

In other words, like western Siberia, the 400 billion tons of methane in permafrost hydrate will gradually melt, and the released methane will speed the melting. The effect of even a couple of billion tons of methane being emitted into the atmosphere each year would be catastrophic.

The "hydrate hypothesis" (if validated) spells the rapid onset of runaway catastrophic global warming. In fact, you should remember this moment when you learned about this feedback loop-it is an existencial turning point in your life.

By the way, the "hydrate hypothesis" is a weeks old scientific theory, and is only now being discussed by global warming scientists. I suggest you Google the term.

Now that most scientists agree human activity is causing the Earth to warm, the central debate has shifted to when we will pass the tipping point and be helpless to stop the runaway Global Warming.
There are enormous quantities of methane trapped in permafrost and under the oceans in ice-like structures called clathrates. The methane in Arctic permafrost clathrates is estimated at 400 billion tons.
Methane is more than 20 times as strong a greenhouse gas as CO2, and the atmosphere currently contains about 3.5 billion tons of the gas.

The highest temperature increase from global warming is occurring in the arctic regions-an area rich in these unstable clathrates. Simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) show that over half the permafrost will thaw by 2050, and as much as 90 percent by 2100.

Peat deposits may be a comparable methane source to melting permafrost. When peat that has been frozen for thousands of years thaws, it still contains viable populations of bacteria that begin to convert the peat into methane and CO2.

Western Siberia is heating up faster than anywhere else in the world, having experienced a rise of some 3C in the past 40 years. The west Siberian peat bog could hold some 70 billion tonnes of methane. Local atmospheric levels of methane on the Siberian shelf are now 25 times higher than global concentrations.
By the way, warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons have caused microbial activity to increase dramatically in the soil around the world. This, in turn, means that much of the carbon long stored in the soil is now being released into the atmosphere.

Releases of methane from melting oceanic clathrates have caused severe environmental impacts in the past. The methane in oceanic clathrates has been estimated at 10,000 billion tons.

55 million years ago a global warming chain reaction (probably started by volcanic activity) melted oceanic clathrates. It was one of the most rapid and extreme global warming events in geologic history.

Humans appear to be capable of emitting CO2 in quantities comparable to the volcanic activity that started these chain reactions. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, burning fossil fuels releases more than 150 times the amount of CO2 emitted by volcanoes.

Methane in the atmosphere does not remain long, persisting for about 10 years before being oxidized to CO2 (a greenhouse gas that lasts for hundreds of thousands of years). Chronic methane releases oxidizing into CO2 contribute as much to warming as does the transient methane concentrations.

To summarize, human activity is causing the Earth to warm. Bacteria converts carbon in the soil into greenhouse gasses, and enormous quantities are trapped in unstable clathrates. As the earth continues to warm, permafrost clathrates will thaw; peat and soil microbial activity will dramatically increase; and, finally, vast oceanic clathrates will melt. This global warming chain reaction has happened in the past.
Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 rose by a record amount over the past year. It is the third successive year in which they have increased sharply. Scientists are at a loss to explain why the rapid rise has taken place, but fear the trend could be the first sign of runaway global warming.

Runaway Global Warming promises to literally burn-up agricultural areas into dust worldwide by 2012, causing global famine, anarchy, diseases, and war on a global scale as military powers including the U.S., Russia, and China, fight for control of the Earth's remaining resources.

Over 4.5 billion people could die from Global Warming related causes by 2012, as planet Earth accelarates into a greed-driven horrific catastrophe.
Bibliographic reference courtesy of Brad Arnold who has an extensive resrarch background on Global Warming.

Hmmm, scary stuff. Recently I heard of scientists discussing the methane trapped in the deep oceans, didn't think about the frozen peat bogs.
Aren't there all sorts of prehistoric bacteria/diseases frozen in the polar ice cap?
Love the scary stuff! But unlike a great horror flick, this one can't be put to bed. 2012? Not much time. Certainly, at some point well before then the writing would be on the wall. There's a lot of writing there already. Most of us can't read it.

Perhaps I'm wrong but weren't you the one who said there were too many people on the planet anyways?
Dexter Sinister
Hard to know who's right. There's no question the climate is warming, but the geological record shows that the planet's gone through a series of warmer and colder phases with about a 100,000 year period over the last 550 thousand years, and we're currently entering a warmer phase after the Pleistocene glaciation that ended about 10,000 years ago. According to all the data I've seen, the warming is real but the human contribution to it remains problematical. The provable human contribution is at the level of uncertainty in the data; we can't really prove human activities are causing any of it. That's not an excuse to ignore it and buy an SUV, that'd be stupid, the smart thing to do is minimize any possible human contribution, for a very simple reason. Climate appears to be what's called a metastable system, which means it can putter along for a long time between well defined extremes, but it's very sensitive to certain variables and a minor change in one of them can suddenly tip it over into a phase with very different extremes.

And as I pointed out in another thread, humanity by any definition is currently a plague on the planet. We can and do destroy whole ecosystems, drive many creatures to extinction via habitat destruction, and nature will eventually stop us with plagues and famines if we don't stop ourselves. Nature's not kind, but we can choose to be.
L Gilbert
Pretty much.
"Hard to know who's right. There's no question the climate is warming, but the geological record shows that the planet's gone through a series of warmer and colder phases with about a 100,000 year period over the last 550 thousand years, and we're currently entering a warmer phase after the Pleistocene glaciation that ended about 10,000 years ago"

Public Credulity
Given that the issue of climate is extremely complex, the public and the politicians are inclined to rely on 'expert opinion.' Simply put, they do not have the knowledge base to make a coherent criticism of something this technical

Science relies on getting a new idea published in refereed journals and then letting skeptics blast away at the hypothesis

Carl Sagan's "nuclear Winter "one of the first politicizers of fear of catastrophic climate change.

Sagan and others had formed a group known as TTAPS (Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack & Sagan). They proposed that a consequence of nuclear war would be a major cooling of the Earth's atmosphere, an effect they called 'Nuclear Winter.' This was the first great politicized debate over climate.

It is also important to recognize that most climate scientists receive their funding either directly or indirectly through federal government grants (e.g. through NASA). To increase funding it helps to have the political class anxious to use their findings as a political club. Climatologists are unusually vulnerable to the temptation to exaggerate to keep the money flowing. Caveat Emptor

All that said , I would much rather money ,time ,people, resources be put into this type of Theory and focus on what we can do to save ourselves if that need be than war !!!

Which brings me to the smoke and mirrors ,a polical trick that makes the public focus on a totally diffrent subject ,so instead of the problematic war with are to focus on global warming ,,everyones buying into it !!
Toro, you're right! I did say that. And stand firmly by it. Science always did insist that nature abhors a vacuum and imbalances are addressed. We need an adjustment. I believe this is the only planet in the universe that supports life. And look what's happening. A single species is systematically rubbing out the rest. If Mother Nature is stymied in controlling us I'm sure she won't give up. And it looks like we're actually co-operating in the ongoing operation. Biodiversity cannot be sacrificed because of the artifice of human principle.
oh darn, I scanned down the list to see if anyone had covered this news release, and I didn't go far enough!!

SORRY 'i think not'. I thought not, its true.

I included some more links, maybe that will save my face.

4.5 or [3.5] billion deaths by 2012 from climate change is news that will not get on the mass media I bet. At least we covered it, twice!!
estimating numbers of deaths is amusing. if u can say 4.5 billion may die u can just as easily say the race will be wiped out. after all do u think that much catastrophe wouldnt come without a few wars and diseases to boot?
L Gilbert
Yep. Funny. A comet could land and wipe out everyone. Sanctus' god could get pissed and disappear the universe and start over again. Sirians could land and use us all for food.
I dislike panic mongers.
Quote: Originally Posted by L GilbertView Post

Yep. Funny. A comet could land and wipe out everyone. Sanctus' god could get pissed and disappear the universe and start over again. Sirians could land and use us all for food.
I dislike panic mongers.

<extends hand>

put it there!

glad to see we can agree on one subject
I dont like fear tactics, or panic mongors, but unlike the terror alerts in the states, this is real and has scientific backing.

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