Here comes Hurricane Bill

OK its still a tropical depression, but hurricane forecasters have given it a 80% chance of becoming a hurricane within 12 hours and a 20% chance of becoming a category 4 or greater within 4 days.

National Hurricane Center

Bermuda has the best chance of getting clobbered.

No question this one has the potential to be a monster.

Bill is now a category 1 Hurricane with a 23% chance of becoming a Category 4 or better in 3 days. No predictions on landfall yet. The hurricane center is hedging their bets. They say it may go harmlessly between Bermuda and the east coast of the US and miss everyone or it could hit every island in the Caribbean except Jamaica and then hit the US in Florida, Alabama and the Mississippi. Then again it could stay a short distance off the US east coast and hit every city from Miami to Halifax like a giant weed whacker.

who says that?

The hurricane center doesn't predict the giant weed whacker scenario. That's my prediction. The Hurricane Center's wide range of track predictions for Hurricane Bill does not eliminate the possibility I predicted. Basically any scenario remains possible.

I don't think the weed whacker scenario is all that likely. Landfall tends to rip apart hurricanes. It would be like running your trimmer against a chain link fence.

A new advisory just came out.

The Hurricane Center's latest prediction also puts this hurricane over colder water sooner, reducing slightly the chances of it becoming a monster 4 or 5 hurricane.

They now predict a very low chance that Hurricane Bill will enter the Caribbean. They've adjusted the track further east away from the US east coast. Currently Bill is travelling WNW toward the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. They predict Bill's track will slowly curve toward NW and then almost straight north. That track prediction puts Bill on course to pass between Bermuda and the East Coast, giving Cape Cod a glancing blow and possibly a landfall in Nova Scotia.

But the Hurricane center isn't predicting any landfall yet.

Bermuda currently has a 40% chance of seeing at least tropical strength winds.
Cape Cod has a 5% chance.
Nova Scotia is still too far in the future to give odds.

The giant east coast weed whacker scenario from North Carolina to Nova Scotia is still a possibility.

That's true. The track would have to be parallel to the coast. The storm would have to maintain a track which is close enough to do damage, yet not close enough to significantly weaken the storm. The odds of a specific storm doing that is pretty remote. However, the odds of that happening over time is nearly inevitable.

Bill's current predicted track is more or less parallel with the East Coast, edging closer to the coast as it tracks north. That means this storm still has a (small) possibility of being a giant east coast weed whacker.

The next advisory should start including predictions about possible landfalls or whether this storm will stay safely out to sea.

The last Hurricane Center advisory just widened Bill's predicted path. Risk of tropical force winds now includes islands off the coast of North Carolina north to Cape Cod.

Currently Bill is just shy of being officially classified as a category 2 Hurricane with 150 km/h maximum sustained winds. (it needs to surpass 153 km/h) Hurricane force winds extend 45 km from the center. Bill has a very symmetrical shape and a well defined eye wall, characteristics of a major hurricane.

Hurricane Bill continues to intensify and could be a category 4 or 5 hurricane within 72 hours. (22% chance)

Well, Bill isn't forecast to hit the really warm waters until Thursday (28-29°C), but by that time it is also forecast to have moderate amounts of wind shear (>15 knots). It will have the attention of the folks in Dartmouth I'm sure. One model has it hitting Bermuda as a Cat4, though that depends on what happens with a developing low pressure trough nearby.

This is probably old news but Hurricane Bill is gaining respectability:

Advisory 10 just came out. Bill is still a category 1. Wind speeds have not increased (or decreased) significantly.

After a relatively rapid intensification earlier today, Bill seems to be catching his breath.

Satellite imagery shows Bill's size has increased and the eye wall has become better defined, indicating potential for further intensification.

Still can't say where or if Bill will make landfall.

So you are an expert or do you just think you are???

No I'm not an expert, nor do I think that I am. Sorry if I gave that impression.

I posted the source of my information in the first post in this string. I'll post it again:

Click on Hurricane Bill:
National Hurricane Center

I've read up on Hurricanes because I'm intellectually curious about powerful weather phenomenon. Here is some additional information about the basic mechanics:
Tropical cyclone - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Hurricanes are interesting to watch grow and develop. But I wouldn't want to experience one, except maybe from inside an adequately protected shelter, like the National Hurricane Center. If one was coming my way, I'd evacuate the area.

If you want an expert's opinion, follow the links above.

But I like to speculate about the future. So I'll go out on a limb and predict/guess Hurricane Bill will make landfall near Saint John NB as a tropical depression on Sunday Aug 23.

Anyone else want to guess?

Hurricane Bill continues to intensify, and is now a category 2. Chances of it growing to a category 4 or 5 is now 25% in the next 48 hours. (a significant probability increase).

Latest track predictions have the hurricane moving parallel to the East Coast from North Carolina to Nova Scotia. The giant East Coast Weed Whacker scenario remains a distinct possibility. (speculation on my part of a worst case scenario)

According to the "experts" at the NHC, Nantucket Maine now has a 10% chance of seeing at least tropical storm force winds from Hurricane Bill. Odds decrease further north or south relative to Nantucket.

New York City is 7%, Washington DC is 4%, Raleigh NC is 3%.

Saint John NB (my pick for landfall) is 4%, Yarmouth 5% and Halifax 3%.

Out in the Atlantic, Bermuda has a 40% chance of seeing tropical storm force winds from Bill.

I expect tomorrow, the NHC will start issuing hurricane watch warnings along the East Coast.

BTW, I came across this storm surge map for Long Island New York. A category 4 or 5 coming ashore here would be extremely destructive.

There is a developing low pressure trough on the US Eastern coast, which will turn Bill North.

I think we're going to get very wet, and I think my boss should start planning where to moor the harvester and smaller boats...I predict Saturday evening is going to be wet and wild, just to be dramatic! lol

Bill is already churning up the water, and the sea surface temps ahead are still warmer, with low to moderate forecasts for wind shear.

Here's the wave height

Dammit!! I have two umbrellas for sale and I'm 5000 kms away. Maybe I should post them on ebay.

Hurricane Bill has apparently become a catagory 4 storm with winds of 135 mph. Bermuda is in it's path at the moment. We'll see what happens.

Hmmmm....I work Friday to Tuesday (Security Canaport LNG)....my trips out onto the Jetty could get real interesting.......

http://www.canaportlng.com/gallery/m...var1=July2009/

I've been hard pressed to irrigate all my vegetables in the heat of the last few days, so it's with virtual certainty that they will be beat down and washed out of the their beds in a few days.

This is interesting: Nova Scotia better batten down the hatches.

Hurricane Bill Packs ‘Dangerous’ Strength on Path to Canada
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By Brian K. Sullivan
Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Bill, already deemed a major storm, intensified over the Atlantic today and is forecast to plow toward Canada after passing between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.
Bill packed maximum sustained winds of 135 miles (217 kilometers) per hour, up from 125 mph earlier today, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at about 11 a.m. Miami time. That makes Bill a Category 4 hurricane on the five- step Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity, where a Category 3 storm, with winds of at least 111 mph, is considered major.
A weather front moving east across the U.S. will probably keep Bill away from the country’s eastern seaboard, said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist at Planalytics Inc. in Wayne, Pennsylvania.
“This is a very dangerous Category 4,” Rouiller said by telephone. “The East Coast is lucky.”
The first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic season, Bill was centered about 380 miles east-northeast of the Caribbean’s Leeward Islands and heading west-northwest at 18 mph, with a gradual turn to the northwest forecast over the next two days. It was about 1,080 miles south-southeast of Bermuda.
The U.S. center’s five-day forecast shows Bill passing between Bermuda and the Carolinas as a major hurricane this weekend, before hitting Nova Scotia while still at hurricane strength on Aug. 24.
Canadian Refineries
Some refineries in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick may be at risk, including privately held Irving Oil’s Saint John, New Brunswick, refinery, which processes about 300,000 barrels of oil a day, according to Olivier Jakob, an analyst with research group Petromatrix GmbH in Zug, Switzerland.
Canadian authorities will likely start issuing bulletins on Bill tomorrow, said Peter Bowyer, a program supervisor for the Canadian Hurricane Centre in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia.
“Atlantic Canada looks like it is under a longer-range threat,” Bowyer said. “Everyone in Atlantic Canada needs to be ready.”
There has never been a storm of Category 3 intensity or stronger to hit Canada since record-keeping began in 1851, Bowyer said.
While the U.S., Caribbean and Bermuda may escape a direct hit, they will still feel the effects of the storm, the U.S. hurricane center said.
“Large swells associated with Bill will be impacting the islands of the northeast Caribbean Sea during the next day or two,” the center said. “Large swells associated with Bill should also begin to affect Bermuda and portions of the eastern coast” of the U.S. by the day after tomorrow, it said.
Hurricane-Force Winds
Hurricane-force winds stretch 80 miles from Bill’s eye, and tropical storm-force winds reach out 175 miles, according to the NHC.
Systems are named when they reach tropical-storm strength, with sustained winds of 39 mph, and they become hurricanes when sustained winds are 74 mph.
The 2009 hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, got off to a quiet start before three named storms formed in a period of 48 hours Aug. 15 and 16. Tropical storms Ana and Claudette have since dissipated, though the remnants of Ana, currently over Cuba, still have a “low chance” of becoming a tropical cyclone again in the next two days, according to the center.

There goes my barly and buck wheat

That's terrible. Barley is an important antibiotic ingredient in beer.

It is an important ingredient in pork chops and chickens too. We had some heavy showers and thunderstorms this evening.

What about your pot plants?

I've been waiting for a Hurricane Ron forever, but "R" being 18 places into
the alphabet....it might be a very long wait.

You'll be waiting at least until another season somewhat like 2005. Hurricane Rita packed quite a punch. Also, you have the gender thing to deal with.

The women and children have been thrown out of the shelter to make room.

Roneen

Rona

Geez. I thought you would have made comfortable pillows and blankets out of the 'hemp'.