Here comes Hurricane Bill


earth_as_one
#1
OK its still a tropical depression, but hurricane forecasters have given it a 80% chance of becoming a hurricane within 12 hours and a 20% chance of becoming a category 4 or greater within 4 days.

National Hurricane Center

Bermuda has the best chance of getting clobbered.
 
earth_as_one
#2
No question this one has the potential to be a monster.

Bill is now a category 1 Hurricane with a 23% chance of becoming a Category 4 or better in 3 days. No predictions on landfall yet. The hurricane center is hedging their bets. They say it may go harmlessly between Bermuda and the east coast of the US and miss everyone or it could hit every island in the Caribbean except Jamaica and then hit the US in Florida, Alabama and the Mississippi. Then again it could stay a short distance off the US east coast and hit every city from Miami to Halifax like a giant weed whacker.
 
strange
#3
who says that?
 
earth_as_one
#4
The hurricane center doesn't predict the giant weed whacker scenario. That's my prediction. The Hurricane Center's wide range of track predictions for Hurricane Bill does not eliminate the possibility I predicted. Basically any scenario remains possible.
 
Tonington
#5
I don't think the weed whacker scenario is all that likely. Landfall tends to rip apart hurricanes. It would be like running your trimmer against a chain link fence.
 
earth_as_one
#6
A new advisory just came out.

The Hurricane Center's latest prediction also puts this hurricane over colder water sooner, reducing slightly the chances of it becoming a monster 4 or 5 hurricane.

They now predict a very low chance that Hurricane Bill will enter the Caribbean. They've adjusted the track further east away from the US east coast. Currently Bill is travelling WNW toward the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. They predict Bill's track will slowly curve toward NW and then almost straight north. That track prediction puts Bill on course to pass between Bermuda and the East Coast, giving Cape Cod a glancing blow and possibly a landfall in Nova Scotia.

But the Hurricane center isn't predicting any landfall yet.

Bermuda currently has a 40% chance of seeing at least tropical strength winds.
Cape Cod has a 5% chance.
Nova Scotia is still too far in the future to give odds.

The giant east coast weed whacker scenario from North Carolina to Nova Scotia is still a possibility.
Last edited by earth_as_one; Aug 17th, 2009 at 10:22 AM..
 
earth_as_one
#7
Quote: Originally Posted by ToningtonView Post

I don't think the weed whacker scenario is all that likely. Landfall tends to rip apart hurricanes. It would be like running your trimmer against a chain link fence.

That's true. The track would have to be parallel to the coast. The storm would have to maintain a track which is close enough to do damage, yet not close enough to significantly weaken the storm. The odds of a specific storm doing that is pretty remote. However, the odds of that happening over time is nearly inevitable.

Bill's current predicted track is more or less parallel with the East Coast, edging closer to the coast as it tracks north. That means this storm still has a (small) possibility of being a giant east coast weed whacker.

The next advisory should start including predictions about possible landfalls or whether this storm will stay safely out to sea.
 
earth_as_one
#8
The last Hurricane Center advisory just widened Bill's predicted path. Risk of tropical force winds now includes islands off the coast of North Carolina north to Cape Cod.

Currently Bill is just shy of being officially classified as a category 2 Hurricane with 150 km/h maximum sustained winds. (it needs to surpass 153 km/h) Hurricane force winds extend 45 km from the center. Bill has a very symmetrical shape and a well defined eye wall, characteristics of a major hurricane.

Hurricane Bill continues to intensify and could be a category 4 or 5 hurricane within 72 hours. (22% chance)
Last edited by earth_as_one; Aug 17th, 2009 at 11:46 AM..
 
Tonington
#9
Well, Bill isn't forecast to hit the really warm waters until Thursday (28-29°C), but by that time it is also forecast to have moderate amounts of wind shear (>15 knots). It will have the attention of the folks in Dartmouth I'm sure. One model has it hitting Bermuda as a Cat4, though that depends on what happens with a developing low pressure trough nearby.
 
#juan
#10
This is probably old news but Hurricane Bill is gaining respectability:

Quote:

As the remnants of Tropical Storm Claudette headed inland over Alabama, Bill’s maximum sustained winds increased to about 90 miles (145 kilometers) an hour just before 11 a.m. Miami time, from 75 mph six hours earlier, the Center said on its Web site. The NHC projects that Bill’s winds will reach at least 111 mph, becoming a major hurricane, by the day after tomorrow, and that the storm will reach southwest of Bermuda this weekend.

 
earth_as_one
#11
Advisory 10 just came out. Bill is still a category 1. Wind speeds have not increased (or decreased) significantly.

After a relatively rapid intensification earlier today, Bill seems to be catching his breath.

Satellite imagery shows Bill's size has increased and the eye wall has become better defined, indicating potential for further intensification.

Still can't say where or if Bill will make landfall.
 
Risus
#12
Quote: Originally Posted by earth_as_oneView Post

The hurricane center doesn't predict the giant weed whacker scenario. That's my prediction. The Hurricane Center's wide range of track predictions for Hurricane Bill does not eliminate the possibility I predicted. Basically any scenario remains possible.

So you are an expert or do you just think you are???
 
earth_as_one
#13
Quote: Originally Posted by RisusView Post

So you are an expert or do you just think you are???

No I'm not an expert, nor do I think that I am. Sorry if I gave that impression.

I posted the source of my information in the first post in this string. I'll post it again:

Click on Hurricane Bill:
National Hurricane Center

I've read up on Hurricanes because I'm intellectually curious about powerful weather phenomenon. Here is some additional information about the basic mechanics:
Tropical cyclone - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (external - login to view)

Hurricanes are interesting to watch grow and develop. But I wouldn't want to experience one, except maybe from inside an adequately protected shelter, like the National Hurricane Center. If one was coming my way, I'd evacuate the area.

If you want an expert's opinion, follow the links above.

But I like to speculate about the future. So I'll go out on a limb and predict/guess Hurricane Bill will make landfall near Saint John NB as a tropical depression on Sunday Aug 23.

Anyone else want to guess?
 
earth_as_one
#14
Hurricane Bill continues to intensify, and is now a category 2. Chances of it growing to a category 4 or 5 is now 25% in the next 48 hours. (a significant probability increase).

Latest track predictions have the hurricane moving parallel to the East Coast from North Carolina to Nova Scotia. The giant East Coast Weed Whacker scenario remains a distinct possibility. (speculation on my part of a worst case scenario)

According to the "experts" at the NHC, Nantucket Maine now has a 10% chance of seeing at least tropical storm force winds from Hurricane Bill. Odds decrease further north or south relative to Nantucket.

New York City is 7%, Washington DC is 4%, Raleigh NC is 3%.

Saint John NB (my pick for landfall) is 4%, Yarmouth 5% and Halifax 3%.

Out in the Atlantic, Bermuda has a 40% chance of seeing tropical storm force winds from Bill.

I expect tomorrow, the NHC will start issuing hurricane watch warnings along the East Coast.

BTW, I came across this storm surge map for Long Island New York. A category 4 or 5 coming ashore here would be extremely destructive.

Quote:

Hurricane storm surge causes approximately 90% of all storm deaths and injuries and much of the damage, therefore it is important for residents of Long Island, New York to be aware of the areas that will be affected by the storm surge. The southern shore of Long Island is most vulnerable to storm surge inundation because hurricane landfall will first occur there and the low elevation will allow sea water to move well inland.
See the effects of storm surge from Camille,
a 1969 Category 5 hurricane in Louisiana

The height of maximum storm surge is a function of storm strength, location of eye landfall, tidal time of landfall, elevation, and speed of storm. The image below represents Long Island and the NY City metro region as they would be affected by storm surge from various strength hurricanes. The image is from the New York State Emergency Management Office GIS software that uses historical storm data and regional topography to...

Quote has been trimmed
Last edited by earth_as_one; Aug 17th, 2009 at 11:00 PM..
 
Tonington
#15
There is a developing low pressure trough on the US Eastern coast, which will turn Bill North.

I think we're going to get very wet, and I think my boss should start planning where to moor the harvester and smaller boats...I predict Saturday evening is going to be wet and wild, just to be dramatic! lol

Bill is already churning up the water, and the sea surface temps ahead are still warmer, with low to moderate forecasts for wind shear.

Here's the wave height
 
Cannuck
#16
Dammit!! I have two umbrellas for sale and I'm 5000 kms away. Maybe I should post them on ebay.
 
#juan
#17
Hurricane Bill has apparently become a catagory 4 storm with winds of 135 mph. Bermuda is in it's path at the moment. We'll see what happens.
 
Colpy
#18
Quote: Originally Posted by #juanView Post

Hurricane Bill has apparently become a catagory 4 storm with winds of 135 mph. Bermuda is in it's path at the moment. We'll see what happens.

Hmmmm....I work Friday to Tuesday (Security Canaport LNG)....my trips out onto the Jetty could get real interesting.......

www.canaportlng.com/gallery/m...var1=July2009/ (external - login to view)
 
darkbeaver
#19
I've been hard pressed to irrigate all my vegetables in the heat of the last few days, so it's with virtual certainty that they will be beat down and washed out of the their beds in a few days.
 
#juan
#20
Quote: Originally Posted by ColpyView Post

Hmmmm....I work Friday to Tuesday (Security Canaport LNG)....my trips out onto the Jetty could get real interesting.......

www.canaportlng.com/gallery/m...var1=July2009/ (external - login to view)

This is interesting: Nova Scotia better batten down the hatches.

Hurricane Bill Packs ‘Dangerous’ Strength on Path to Canada
:togShareLinks('shr_v');" target="_blank">Share (external - login to view) | Email | Print (external - login to view) | A (external - login to view) A (external - login to view) A (external - login to view)


By Brian K. Sullivan
Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Bill, already deemed a major storm, intensified over the Atlantic today and is forecast to plow toward Canada after passing between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.
Bill packed maximum sustained winds of 135 miles (217 kilometers) per hour, up from 125 mph earlier today, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at about 11 a.m. Miami time. That makes Bill a Category 4 hurricane on the five- step Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity, where a Category 3 storm, with winds of at least 111 mph, is considered major.
A weather front moving east across the U.S. will probably keep Bill away from the country’s eastern seaboard, said Jim Rouiller (external - login to view), a senior energy meteorologist at Planalytics Inc. in Wayne, Pennsylvania.
“This is a very dangerous Category 4,” Rouiller said by telephone. “The East Coast is lucky.”
The first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic season, Bill was centered about 380 miles east-northeast of the Caribbean’s Leeward Islands and heading west-northwest at 18 mph, with a gradual turn to the northwest forecast over the next two days. It was about 1,080 miles south-southeast of Bermuda.
The U.S. center’s five-day forecast shows Bill passing between Bermuda and the Carolinas as a major hurricane this weekend, before hitting Nova Scotia while still at hurricane strength on Aug. 24.
Canadian Refineries
Some refineries in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick may be at risk, including privately held Irving Oil’s (external - login to view) Saint John, New Brunswick, refinery, which processes about 300,000 barrels of oil a day, according to Olivier Jakob (external - login to view), an analyst with research group Petromatrix GmbH in Zug, Switzerland.
Canadian authorities will likely start issuing bulletins on Bill tomorrow, said Peter Bowyer, a program supervisor for the Canadian Hurricane Centre (external - login to view) in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia.
“Atlantic Canada looks like it is under a longer-range threat,” Bowyer said. “Everyone in Atlantic Canada needs to be ready.”
There has never been a storm of Category 3 intensity or stronger to hit Canada since record-keeping began in 1851, Bowyer said.
While the U.S., Caribbean and Bermuda may escape a direct hit, they will still feel the effects of the storm, the U.S. hurricane center said.
“Large swells associated with Bill will be impacting the islands of the northeast Caribbean Sea during the next day or two,” the center said. “Large swells associated with Bill should also begin to affect Bermuda and portions of the eastern coast” of the U.S. by the day after tomorrow, it said.
Hurricane-Force Winds
Hurricane-force winds stretch 80 miles from Bill’s eye, and tropical storm-force winds reach out 175 miles, according to the NHC.
Systems are named when they reach tropical-storm strength, with sustained winds of 39 mph, and they become hurricanes when sustained winds are 74 mph.
The 2009 hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, got off to a quiet start before three named storms formed in a period of 48 hours Aug. 15 and 16. Tropical storms Ana and Claudette have since dissipated, though the remnants of Ana, currently over Cuba, still have a “low chance” of becoming a tropical cyclone again in the next two days, according to the center.
 
darkbeaver
#21
There goes my barly and buck wheat
 
#juan
#22
Quote: Originally Posted by darkbeaverView Post

There goes my barly and buck wheat

That's terrible. Barley is an important antibiotic ingredient in beer.
 
darkbeaver
#23
It is an important ingredient in pork chops and chickens too. We had some heavy showers and thunderstorms this evening.
 
Said1
#24
What about your pot plants?
 
Ron in Regina
#25
I've been waiting for a Hurricane Ron forever, but "R" being 18 places into
the alphabet....it might be a very long wait.
 
Tonington
#26
You'll be waiting at least until another season somewhat like 2005. Hurricane Rita (external - login to view) packed quite a punch. Also, you have the gender thing to deal with.
Last edited by Tonington; Aug 19th, 2009 at 08:40 PM..
 
darkbeaver
#27
Quote: Originally Posted by Said1View Post

What about your pot plants?


The women and children have been thrown out of the shelter to make room.
 
darkbeaver
#28
Quote: Originally Posted by ToningtonView Post

You'll be waiting at least until another season somewhat like 2005. Hurricane Rita (external - login to view) packed quite a punch. Also, you have the gender thing to deal with.

Roneen
 
Tonington
#29
Rona
 
Said1
#30
Quote: Originally Posted by darkbeaverView Post

The women and children have been thrown out of the shelter to make room.

Geez. I thought you would have made comfortable pillows and blankets out of the 'hemp'.
 

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