The Iranian People Speak

By Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty
Monday, June 15, 2009


The election results in Iran may reflect the will of the Iranian people. Many experts are claiming that the margin of victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the result of fraud or manipulation, but our nationwide -- of Iranians three weeks before the vote showed Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin -- greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday's election.

While Western news reports from Tehran in the days leading up to the voting portrayed an Iranian public enthusiastic about Ahmadinejad's principal opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, our scientific sampling from across all 30 of Iran's provinces showed Ahmadinejad well ahead.

Independent and uncensored nationwide surveys of Iran are rare. Typically, preelection polls there are either conducted or monitored by the government and are notoriously untrustworthy.

By contrast, the poll undertaken by our nonprofit organizations from May 11 to May 20 was the third in a series over the past two years. Conducted by telephone from a neighboring country, field work was carried out in Farsi by a polling company whose work in the region for ABC News and the BBC has received an Emmy award. Our polling was funded by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund.

The breadth of Ahmadinejad's support was apparent in our preelection survey. During the campaign, for instance, Mousavi emphasized his identity as an Azeri, the second-largest ethnic group in Iran after Persians, to woo Azeri voters. Our survey indicated, though, that Azeris favored Ahmadinejad by 2 to 1 over Mousavi.

Much commentary has portrayed Iranian youth and the Internet as harbingers of change in this election. But our poll found that only a third of Iranians even have access to the Internet, while 18-to-24-year-olds comprised the strongest voting bloc for Ahmadinejad of all age groups.

The only demographic groups in which our survey found Mousavi leading or competitive with Ahmadinejad were university students and graduates, and the highest-income Iranians. When our poll was taken, almost a third of Iranians were also still undecided. Yet the baseline distributions we found then mirror the results reported by the Iranian authorities, indicating the possibility that the vote is not the product of widespread fraud.

Some might argue that the professed support for Ahmadinejad we found simply reflected fearful respondents' reluctance to provide honest answers to pollsters. Yet the integrity of our results is confirmed by the politically risky responses Iranians were willing to give to a host of questions. For instance, nearly four in five Iranians -- including most Ahmadinejad supporters -- said they wanted to change the political system to give them the right to elect Iran's supreme leader, who is not currently subject to popular vote. Similarly, Iranians chose free elections and a free press as their most important priorities for their government, virtually tied with improving the national economy. These were hardly "politically correct" responses to voice publicly in a largely authoritarian society.

Indeed, and consistently among all three of our surveys over the past two years, more than 70 percent of Iranians also expressed support for providing full access to weapons inspectors and a guarantee that Iran will not develop or possess nuclear weapons, in return for outside aid and investment. And 77 percent of Iranians favored normal relations and trade with the United States, another result consistent with our previous findings.

Iranians view their support for a more democratic system, with normal relations with the United States, as consonant with their support for Ahmadinejad. They do not want him to continue his hard-line policies. Rather, Iranians apparently see Ahmadinejad as their toughest negotiator, the person best positioned to bring home a favorable deal -- rather like a Persian Nixon going to China.

Allegations of fraud and electoral manipulation will serve to further isolate Iran and are likely to increase its belligerence and intransigence against the outside world. Before other countries, including the United States, jump to the conclusion that the Iranian presidential elections were fraudulent, with the grave consequences such charges could bring, they should consider all independent information. The fact may simply be that the reelection of President Ahmadinejad is what the Iranian people wanted.

I'm trying to make up my mind whether this election was fradulent or not. Certainly the western media have created this perception.

Opposition Candidate Mousavi believes he was a victim of fraud:
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Anyone willing to share their opinion on the subject...

Proof: Israeli Effort to Destabilize Iran Via Twitter

Monday, June 15, 2009 19:52 Posted in category --

Right-wing Israeli interests are engaged in an all out Twitter attack with hopes of delegitimizing the Iranian election and causing political instability within Iran.
Anyone using Twitter over the past few days knows that the topic of the Iranian election has been the most popular. Thousands of tweets and retweets alleging that the election was a fraud, calling for protests in Iran, and even urging followers hack various Iranian news websites (which they did successfully). The Twitter popularity caught the eye of various blogs such as -- and -- and even made its way to mainstream news media sites.

Were these legitimate Iranian people or the works of a propa--

Yes...and the tens of thousands marching in Tehran have nothing to do with it.

A Serbian recently told me that the same signs were there:

1. Opposition officials not being allowed into polling stations.
2. National celebration organized by the government.

The first should be enough to throw out the results in any civilized country.

The opposition was robbed. Fraud all around.

damn good thing that sort of thing can't happen in "civilised" countries.
I hope if somehow Mousavi wins via re-do the stupid "villain" stigma attached to Iran can be put to rest, since apparently everyone in the west thinks he would be a great leader... why the HELL anyone outside of Iran has ANY input on this situation escapes me entirely- but somehow it smacks of hypocrisy to have people complaining about supposed election fraud in a country that has been constantly referred to as a barbaric threat- anyone who thinks that Mousavi would make Iran the 51st state is truly deluded

Good to see Iranian people using their voices.Active in their system.Up to Iranians, and their leaders, to decide where they want to go..Where they stand on the world stage.

It seems Iranians are doing fine at voicing their opinions .

Another election wouldn't do anything.Probably make things worse.Again Let Iranian's and their leaders sort this out.Peacefully,hopefully..

I think their doing fine without any outside influence

It's all part of election fever..

Do people really have a say at the end of the day?

Perhaps In some ways..

We'll have to see how thing go before we find out how Iranians influence their leaders.I am sure their leaders are listening

Anyone who would suggest that as the intent is as well.

If Ahmadinejad stays on a President, there will be an assassination attempt on him. The Mousavi supporters in the past three days have been holding signs saying Go to Hell to Ahmadinejad and Death to Ahmadinejad, very testing times for the Iranian youth. Here is another fraud, the supreme leader the theocratic freak show said there would be a partial recount, what democracy would allow a partial and not a complete to insure the wrong area is not chosen for recount on purpose. These theocratic misfits must go……………..

I agree Socrates... I wonder why a few in here are rooting this turkey on.

President Ahmadinejad is a good man that's why he is unpopular in the west.

A large number of Iranian's would seem to disagree with you.

It's called democracy, they're allowed to, isn't that strange in nasty ole Iran? The number of disagreeing Iranians didn't and dosen't end up in a majority. I didn't know I was unpopular in Iran.

They are recounting the contested votes so they might just end up the majority.

You are popular everywhere, Beaver. You are the voice for disenfranchised youth... or was that nirvana?

If all great men were like Ahadinejad the dictator, humanity would have vanished long ego. Ahmadinejad is a MISSFIT and he will be the reason if a revolution started in Iran.

Excellent man just like Mohomar Khadaffy, Idi Amin, Robert Magabbe and Adolf Hitler. Should be made world citizen of the year.

You left out G`Dubya in that list.

I thought of Dubya too, but decided he doesn't have the charisma and charm of these other fellas. But I did neglect Stalin and Mussolini.

The problem with Iran is the picture is so incomplete. I look at this as similar to a legal case: when our courts pass judgement, its based on evidence that can be presented to a judge/jury. If we look at the "evidence" of wrong doing its circumstantial and incomplete:

- the polls conducted prior to the election had Ahmadinejad in front 2:1 ( but how reliable are the polls given the restrictions on things like reporting?)
- there were no outside observers present to monitor proceedings (there usually aren't in our elections either but our countries, be they European, the US, Canada, Aus, etc, have a deeper democratic tradition and better human rights records than Iran. Do the Iranians utilize scrutineers from the parties to oberserve the ballot counting, like we do?)
- the opposition is claiming foul play and protesting the result,but that seems to be the case for the losers in many elections these days, even in parts of the US and Canada, although usually in our cases they are subject to mandatory recounts

Now I may not like Ahmadinejad's policy stance on Israel, and as a westerner I don't trust him, but based on the above "evidence" I don't see much of anything that can be taken as proof of an election fraud. And I wonder what the difference would be in an Iran where the final arbiter is still the Islamic Council, made up of clerics.

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Courtesy of charlesAdler...Twitter

That's somethin.No problem with freedom of assembly/speech n Iran(so far).Hope 4 peaceful protest.

Keep Morality up,mortality down..

I'm convinced now that millions of Iranians are convinced of voter fraud. Since there were no international observers, that's hard to prove either way.

If Iran doesn't hold a new election, people who believe its now impossible to change the government by peaceful democracy will go underground and begin to plot the overthrow of the entire system. Typically that leads to violence and revolution. Iran's religious leaders should be aware of this danger. After all that how they overthrew the previous US/British installed dictator.

The election has little effect on the power of Iran's supreme leaader. But these demonstrations threaten his power base and legitimacy. If these demonstration continue to grow, he faces a choice:

Endorse a percieved rigged election, massive protests, violence, bloodshed and possible revolution
or
Holding new elections which will legitimize his position as supreme leader

I suspect he will choose new elections.

Yeah, I think that guy should take a look at the history of Louis XV1 and Marie Antoinette & take special note of what happened to them because they weren't listening.

Bush? Is he still President?

Some people just can't let go. Ahhh how they long for the old days.

Yep, Dubya had one admirable quality- he didn't take any crap.

I just find it humorous because for years the left was saying that Bush is going to make himself a dictator and that he would dissolve the 2008 Presidential election so that he could remain in power.

Now these people can't let go. Obama winning was the worst possible scenario to them.

Most of the bad asses on the list were former rulers and formerly alive. Why would Bush be exempt from the list? And... the good old days never left, just the faces have changed on the same old foreign policy.

Iran has huge oil reserves, so yes the US would love to do what it is doing to Iraq: invade, destabilize and steal their oil.

"Iran has huge oil reserves, so yes the US would love to do what it is doing to Iraq: invade, destabilize and steal their oil."- Wouldn't it be much easier to them just to invade CAnada and steal our oil? We have a lot more of it.

Nice to see the people of Iran speaking out. Looks like Obama-mania is really catching on.

That would be a lot harder to justify without decades of hate propaganda being issued like the US has done to Iran ever since their flunky the Shaw was deposed. Perhaps that is what the "Canada is a source of terrorists" campaign is about - the beginning of the propaganda as the prerequisite to eventual invasion. But of course that is completely unnecessary as we give it away to them anyways.