A rosy forecast: Possible, if it all goes right

Francis2004

Subjective Poster
Nov 18, 2008
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Lower Mainland, BC
This has been in the news for a while.

I waited to see if anyone would post this out of curiosity but as good news never makes headlines it was not even mentioned.

The reality is that, just as things could ALL GO BAD at the same time, things can go extremely good all in the same manner.

But we automatically REFUSE to accept that as reality until it has passed.. We much rather believe the negative then the positive.. How human of most of us.

OTTAWA — For months, the global downturn has been compared to the worst economic slumps of the past century: Japan's lost decade, the drawn-out recession of 1982 and even the Great Depression.

Now, with a forecast for 2010 that sees Canada's economy growing at a blistering, almost 5-per-cent clip for much of year and averaging a healthy 3.8 per cent for the year, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is calling into question the widely accepted view that recovery will take many quarters of sluggish growth.


Mr. Carney's forecast for a dramatic economic rebound in Canada next year contrasts with the consensus of private sector economists of 2.3-per-cent growth that year and has prompted incredulity among observers.


But that doesn't mean the central bank is wrong, economists said. Rather, it likely means the bank assumes that everything will go right for Canada in the coming year.


The forecast hinges on federal and provincial spending, stimulus packages around the world driving up commodity prices, and credit conditions easing. In addition, the U.S. economy would need to bottom out and start to pick up so that demand for Canadian goods such as cars and lumber improves.

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L Gilbert

Winterized
Nov 30, 2006
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I heard that a good way out of a economic slump or recession is for people to spend a bit more. I suppose that would include the gov't, as well. Unfortunately, people and businesses, instead of following this advice, tend to hoard and do what they can to lessen their personal discomfort. This leaves gov'ts alone to battle the circumstances. IMO, it's silly on the parts of people, and distinctly shortsighted on the part of business (although, I have heard of the odd business that will bend over backward and take a profit hit to help a community weather storms well).
 

Francis2004

Subjective Poster
Nov 18, 2008
2,846
34
48
Lower Mainland, BC
I heard that a good way out of a economic slump or recession is for people to spend a bit more. I suppose that would include the gov't, as well. Unfortunately, people and businesses, instead of following this advice, tend to hoard and do what they can to lessen their personal discomfort. This leaves gov'ts alone to battle the circumstances. IMO, it's silly on the parts of people, and distinctly shortsighted on the part of business (although, I have heard of the odd business that will bend over backward and take a profit hit to help a community weather storms well).

Les, IMO it is why Canada has done much better and is only now entering the recession. This of course only because we have only heard the negative news for so long that finally it has gotten us down..

Of course the lower exports to the US were bound to start having a lower confidence and negative effect as well but it did not have to be as drastic as we have seen.
 

VanIsle

Always thinking
Nov 12, 2008
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I guess it is true that people don't want to hear good news...[/quote
People are afraid of good news. Afraid it might not be right so they are afraid to trust it. As you say - some people are cutting back. Others are ignoring the news. I think the biggest block to good news is the media. Good news doesn't sell nearly as well as any other news - bad news, sensationalism etc.
Is my family pulling back? Well - my son and his family are building a house. We are just about ready to rip up our carpet and replace it with hardwood. I think I'll put cork in the bathrooms. Our house is just over 3 years old. Nothing needs to be replaced but it's going to happen. However, we do not smoke, we seldom drink and we don't go out a lot. Used to go out every Thursday but - jobs got in the way and that's life. I feel justified in spending what it will take to upgrade the house. We are not throwing money around but we are not worrying too much either. There is little chance of either of us losing our jobs but if we did, it would not be the end of the world.
 

VanIsle

Always thinking
Nov 12, 2008
7,046
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48
my computer went a little weird there so it's difficult to see where I am "quoting" Sir Francis. I have no idea what I am doing but every once in awhile I hit a key that puts me in some odd place on a page and changes things. I am often typing away only to glance up and realize that I am in a totally wrong place.
 

darkbeaver

the universe is electric
Jan 26, 2006
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RR1 Distopia 666 Discordia
This has been in the news for a while.

I waited to see if anyone would post this out of curiosity but as good news never makes headlines it was not even mentioned.

That's because it isn't news it's pure spin.

The reality is that, just as things could ALL GO BAD at the same time, things can go extremely good all in the same manner.

That's the kind of logic that will eventually empty your accounts.

But we automatically REFUSE to accept that as reality until it has passed.. We much rather believe the negative then the positive.. How human of most of us.

In case you've been on an extended vacation to some other planet in your imaginary world the western capitalist civilization is in deepening inescapeable crisis which it cannot possibly survive as we now know it, it is thought very likely that we will be compelled to global war. Indeed Canadians are already there ready to advance more blood and bones in defence of internation bankers.

Quote: OTTAWA — For months, the global downturn has been compared to the worst economic slumps of the past century: Japan's lost decade, the drawn-out recession of 1982 and even the Great Depression.

Now, with a forecast for 2010 that sees Canada's economy growing at a blistering, almost 5-per-cent clip for much of year and averaging a healthy 3.8 per cent for the year, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is calling into question the widely accepted view that recovery will take many quarters of sluggish growth.


Mr. Carney's forecast for a dramatic economic rebound in Canada next year contrasts with the consensus of private sector economists of 2.3-per-cent growth that year and has prompted incredulity among observers.


But that doesn't mean the central bank is wrong, economists said. Rather, it likely means the bank assumes that everything will go right for Canada in the coming year.


The forecast hinges on federal and provincial spending, stimulus packages around the world driving up commodity prices, and credit conditions easing. In addition, the U.S. economy would need to bottom out and start to pick up so that demand for Canadian goods such as cars and lumber improves.

What the banking community assumes publicly is at odds with what they assume privately. Mr Carney often sits on the board of the BIS, his employers. And to be fair the global downturn is referred to in reliable journals as "hyperinflationary great depression", I think.

It's refreshing to run into an idealistic optimist at times but I worry that the country may be lead astray by that type of starry eyed innocence.:smile:
 

darkbeaver

the universe is electric
Jan 26, 2006
41,035
201
63
RR1 Distopia 666 Discordia
I heard that a good way out of a economic slump or recession is for people to spend a bit more. I suppose that would include the gov't, as well. Unfortunately, people and businesses, instead of following this advice, tend to hoard and do what they can to lessen their personal discomfort. This leaves gov'ts alone to battle the circumstances. IMO, it's silly on the parts of people, and distinctly shortsighted on the part of business (although, I have heard of the odd business that will bend over backward and take a profit hit to help a community weather storms well).

We would likely spend more if we made more eh. Saving for rainy days didn't used to be called hordeing or thought of as selfish. I have heard of the odd business that would evict little old ladies with babies into the snowy sub-zero dead of night for a few extra bucks.
 

Francis2004

Subjective Poster
Nov 18, 2008
2,846
34
48
Lower Mainland, BC
This has been in the news for a while.

I waited to see if anyone would post this out of curiosity but as good news never makes headlines it was not even mentioned.

That's because it isn't news it's pure spin.

The reality is that, just as things could ALL GO BAD at the same time, things can go extremely good all in the same manner.

That's the kind of logic that will eventually empty your accounts.

But we automatically REFUSE to accept that as reality until it has passed.. We much rather believe the negative then the positive.. How human of most of us.

In case you've been on an extended vacation to some other planet in your imaginary world the western capitalist civilization is in deepening inescapeable crisis which it cannot possibly survive as we now know it, it is thought very likely that we will be compelled to global war. Indeed Canadians are already there ready to advance more blood and bones in defence of internation bankers.

Quote: OTTAWA — For months, the global downturn has been compared to the worst economic slumps of the past century: Japan's lost decade, the drawn-out recession of 1982 and even the Great Depression.

Now, with a forecast for 2010 that sees Canada's economy growing at a blistering, almost 5-per-cent clip for much of year and averaging a healthy 3.8 per cent for the year, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is calling into question the widely accepted view that recovery will take many quarters of sluggish growth.


Mr. Carney's forecast for a dramatic economic rebound in Canada next year contrasts with the consensus of private sector economists of 2.3-per-cent growth that year and has prompted incredulity among observers.


But that doesn't mean the central bank is wrong, economists said. Rather, it likely means the bank assumes that everything will go right for Canada in the coming year.


The forecast hinges on federal and provincial spending, stimulus packages around the world driving up commodity prices, and credit conditions easing. In addition, the U.S. economy would need to bottom out and start to pick up so that demand for Canadian goods such as cars and lumber improves.

What the banking community assumes publicly is at odds with what they assume privately. Mr Carney often sits on the board of the BIS, his employers. And to be fair the global downturn is referred to in reliable journals as "hyperinflationary great depression", I think.

It's refreshing to run into an idealistic optimist at times but I worry that the country may be lead astray by that type of starry eyed innocence.:smile:

Your positive pessimism is beyond reproach.. Just for you I would like to see the Planet Crumble to the finest if financial disasters..

Unfortunately I do not share you point of view and see a much more positive bright side of the "Cycle" of economics..

I am not sure I agree the economy will be as bright as fast as Carney says but I certainly do not see the doom and gloom you do.. I certainly see a brighter year ahead and its not from starry eyed innocence either..
 

L Gilbert

Winterized
Nov 30, 2006
23,738
107
63
70
50 acres in Kootenays BC
the-brights.net
We would likely spend more if we made more eh. Saving for rainy days didn't used to be called hordeing or thought of as selfish. I have heard of the odd business that would evict little old ladies with babies into the snowy sub-zero dead of night for a few extra bucks.
I don't think there's much wrong with wages these days. It's that take-home that is ridiculous. We pay dearly for gov'ts, union wages, CEO's and other top brass, etc.
Yup, I have heard of a few businesses like that, too. The latest ones I can think of are the major oil companies, who I blame for a lot of this economic mess. They laid off refinery workers and cut back refining just before tourist season last year, and then claimed "shortage" of fuels.
But on the other hand, there are some single industry towns that would collapse if the industry quit, so the businesses do what they can to keep the town (and hence, themselves) afloat. I can't think of any big businesses like that, though.
 

Cliffy

Standing Member
Nov 19, 2008
44,850
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Nakusp, BC
I don't think we can afford an economic recovery. The planet, our life support system is in peril from economic growth. As long as we tie our economic well being to the speed at which we rape the planet we are just hastening our own demise. I for one hope that the economy never recovers. It is time to take stock of the lunacy we call our economy and figure out what it is that we can consume without jeopardizing our lives and the lives of every other species on the planet.

What we have been doing is spending our great grand children's inheritance. We are going to leave them a desolate waste land because we live so far beyond what is sustainable. Western society is consuming vastly more than the rest of the world and most here think it is our right to be decadent. It is time to start thinking about what we are leaving to future generations and stop being so goddamn greedy. Continual economic growth will kill this planet and all on it.
 

darkbeaver

the universe is electric
Jan 26, 2006
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Without a sound domestic manufacturing base nothing will get anything but worse. When the bankers/transnationals stripped industrial capacity from the west and moved it to the slave zones the clock began ticking, it was a violation of sound economic principals of four hundred years in practice. If you don't make shoes furniture clothes food or hardware how in hell can you have a functioning economy. The answer, you can't. The western economies have slithered along on the service/financial model as long as there was skin left on the snakes belly, well that belly is worn right down to the spine and it ain't going to magically regenerate any new flesh. Historically there is no precedent for recovery in these types of phoney economies. The Dutch the Spaniards, the Germans the Limeys and the French are just a few who rediscovered those facts the hard way and every one of them allowed thier bankers to drive thier economies into ruin exactly as we see has been done in this era. Without a functioning industrial base sir you will be pissing in the proverbial ocean till the end of time.
 

GreenFish66

House Member
Apr 16, 2008
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Hope for the best plan for the worst..It is what it is...so enjoy it ,before it's over!..Don't get no better bein bitter...(or is that things taste better with butter?)...Live for life or die a grumpy ol fart!....lol...It is what you make of it..I like to try to stay positive..Find solution rather than add to all the possible problems...It is great to be here ,now ..I look forward to tomorrow,,I have fatih in the future...And all those positive thinking quotes...lol
 

Cliffy

Standing Member
Nov 19, 2008
44,850
192
63
Nakusp, BC
Hope for the best plan for the worst..It is what it is...so enjoy it ,before it's over!..Don't get no better bein bitter...(or is that things taste better with butter?)...Live for life or die a grumpy ol fart!....lol...It is what you make of it..I like to try to stay positive..Find solution rather than add to all the possible problems...It is great to be here ,now ..I look forward to tomorrow,,I have fatih in the future...And all those positive thinking quotes...lol

If you don't know the root cause of your problem, how are you going to fix it. There are a lot of things that can be done, but until people are willing to admit that they are the problem, we will just keep sinking deeper into the quagmire. The problem with sticking your head up your butt is that it stinks in there.