Conservatives and Liberals in a virtual tie nationally


sanch
#1
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl.../National/home

Quote:

Ottawa — A new poll suggests Tory support is sliding over voter concern that Canada has become too cozy with the United States on Middle East policy.

The latest results by Decima Research, released to The Canadian Press, put the Conservatives and Liberals in a virtual tie nationally.

The Tories had 32 per cent support compared with 31 per cent for the Liberals and 16 per cent for the New Democrats.

But the Liberals widened their Ontario lead to 42 per cent of voter support compared with 33 per cent for the Conservatives, and have pulled in front of the Tories in Quebec for the first time since last winter's campaign.

 
Gonzo
Avatar
#2
Considering the Liberals don't even have a leader thats not bad. The CONservatives should be worried.
 
#juan
Avatar
#3
I think most could see that coming. If the Liberals get themselves a credible leader who will commit to continue rebuilding our military, and keep Canada/U.S. relations reasonable, the tories will be history. Depends on what Harper does about it.
 
Caleb-Dain Matton
#4
The Harpercrites will disagree with that poll. Yet, a party bred on neglect shows its ugly face eventually -- The Cons are sinking themselves with their puppet stance on the Mideast.
 
JonB2004
#5
Quote: Originally Posted by #juan

I think most could see that coming. If the Liberals get themselves a credible leader who will commit to continue rebuilding our military, and keep Canada/U.S. relations reasonable, the tories will be history. Depends on what Harper does about it.


I agree with you, #juan. But I don't know if its really the right time to give the Liberals another chance. I was hoping that the Liberals would be out until at least April 2007. But it looks like they will be in sometime in November. At the moment, if an election occurs in October, I would prefer another Conservative minority.
 
Toro
Avatar
#6
The Tories will not lose the next election if it is held within the next 6 months.

The Tories will not lose based on their stance in the Middle East.

The Tories will win a majority if they govern relatively competent and do not stray too far to the right.
 
FiveParadox
#7
Quote: Originally Posted by Toro

The Tories will win a majority if they govern relatively competent and do not stray too far to the right.

Not with thirty-two per cent of the vote, they won't.
 
BitWhys
Avatar
#8
The Tory days of competency are over. They look like W clones on international policy, lumber is blowing up, health care wait times and the fiscal imbalance are politically undeliverable and out of control, Rona is actually going to have to pony up a plan in October, which should be rich, the economy is stuttering and they're broke.

They'll be lucky if they don't end up eating their weak and elderly in public.
 
BitWhys
#9
And Kelowna WILL come back to haunt them.
 
gc
Avatar
#10
If that poll is accurate, then that is the best news I've heard all day.

By the way, the tories will not win a majority the next election no matter how they govern. In order to get a majority it is almost essential to pick up more seats in Quebec. Given that the tories have pretty much broken their promise to address the fiscal imbalance (which I'm guessing is why a lot of Quebecers voted for the tories) I don't think they will pick up any more seats. Quebec is probably the one province that might hurt the tories when it comes to the conflict in the middle east and Harper's response. Unless the liberals choose bob rae as leader, and the tories manage to pick up another 30 seats in Ontario, they will not have a majority. Best case scenario is a tory minority, but I think we will be looking at another minority government regardless of who wins the next election.
 
BitWhys
#11
I LIKE minority governments.
 
JonB2004
#12
Quote: Originally Posted by BitWhys

The Tory days of competency are over. They look like W clones on international policy, lumber is blowing up, health care wait times and the fiscal imbalance are politically undeliverable and out of control, Rona is actually going to have to pony up a plan in October, which should be rich, the economy is stuttering and they're broke.

They'll be lucky if they don't end up eating their weak and elderly in public.


First of all, BitWhys, Harper is not a GWB clone, so get over it. Yes, the Conservatives have screwed up on the softwood lumber deal and the fiscal imbalance. They Conservatives have sort of addressed health care wait times because they did give $1.6 billion extra in the budget. I support a made-in-Canada environment plan. I just hope its not going to be useless. The Conservatives are not broke. There is a whole bunch of stories going around that the economy is slowing down and then there is another bunch that say that the economy is maintaining speed. The stock markets, energy prices, and inflation continue to rise so that is leading me to believe that the economy is maintaining speed, but that could very well change.


Quote: Originally Posted by BitWhys

And Kelowna WILL come back to haunt them.


I agree.


Quote: Originally Posted by BitWhys

I LIKE minority governments.


Why? I strongly dislike minority governments. There is no stability. And there are always too many elections with minority governments.
 
FiveParadox
Avatar
#13
I have an odd affection for minority governments; the Government of Canada is required to take a more active role in assuring that the wishes of the House of Commons, and the Parliament Assembled of Canada, are respected. (This is not to say, of course, that I am in opposition to majority governments—both serve their purposes in the proper situations.) In a situation such as this, where the electorate is so divided between the Conservative Party of Canada and the Liberal Party of Canada, I would suggest that minorities in the House are quite appropriate.
 
zoofer
Avatar
#14
Sorry to say but the Tories will be history if not sooner then later IMO.
Changing demographics will eventually overwhelm English speaking European Canadians with foreign speakers from the 3rd world. Expect a slew of North African and Lebanese refugees to enter Canada. As most (800,000 to 1 million) claim to support Hezbollah, they will hate Israel and by extension the USA and Conservative Canada. They will vote Liberal or old Socialist. The Liberals were loathe to even label these groups as terrorists as they helped elect Lib MPs.
The 30 million illegals in the USA will tilt the vote for the Dems. People worry about global warming will impact their lives and that of their grandchildren? Hilarious.
 
Hank C
#15
Quote: Originally Posted by zoofer

Sorry to say but the Tories will be history if not sooner then later IMO.
Changing demographics will eventually overwhelm English speaking European Canadians with foreign speakers from the 3rd world. Expect a slew of North African and Lebanese refugees to enter Canada. As most (800,000 to 1 million) claim to support Hezbollah, they will hate Israel and by extension the USA and Conservative Canada. They will vote Liberal or old Socialist. The Liberals were loathe to even label these groups as terrorists as they helped elect Lib MPs.
The 30 million illegals in the USA will tilt the vote for the Dems. People worry about global warming will impact their lives and that of their grandchildren? Hilarious.

As a dual citizen, this is one of the most sickining outcomes I fear we are heading towards.
 
iARTthere4iam
Avatar
#16
I am absolutely amazed that anyone would vote for the liberals right now. Why? They are leaderless, and directionless. We have just come out or a long period of liberal governance that wasted billions of dollars ( the HR billion-dollar boondoggl, gun registry, and sponsorship scandal).
Why anyone is affraid of Harper based on his actions to date is beyond me. Some people only ever vote for one party, this to me is strange and somehow seem counter to the idea of democracy.
 
BitWhys
Avatar
#17
Quote: Originally Posted by JonB2004

First of all, BitWhys, Harper is not a GWB clone, so get over it.

I've got a filibuster and an hour and a half wasted in committee over the word "substainable" that proves otherwise and there's no need to be rude but if you're that insecure about the whole thing then whatever.

Quote: Originally Posted by JonB2004

There is a whole bunch of stories going around that the economy is slowing down and then there is another bunch that say that the economy is maintaining speed. The stock markets, energy prices, and inflation continue to rise so that is leading me to believe that the economy is maintaining speed, but that could very well change.

The report of 0% growth is not a "story". That's called a statistic.
 
BitWhys
Avatar
#18
Quote: Originally Posted by JonB2004

They Conservatives have sort of addressed health care wait times because they did give $1.6 billion extra in the budget. I support a made-in-Canada environment plan. I just hope its not going to be useless. The Conservatives are not broke.

I remember something about one of their fiscal cats popping out of the herd about Health Care but I don't recall it addressing the Wait Time Guarantee. Got a link handy for me? thanx

"made-in-Canada". If its any good it would merely compliment our Kyoto agreement in which case so do I, but a over a year and a half after Ambrose claimed to have a "very thorough policy" there is STILL no such beast or anything like it in existence.

As a government, yes they ARE broke. Harper has shot the wad, IMO in the interests of pulling off a sufficient short-term run in popularity to score a majority government. heh. Time for a change of plans. IF they don't add another nickel to the budget (in light of the need for a fiscal imbalance patch as well as Kyoto and Kelowna replacements, I doubt it) and IF Canada's economy continues to grow as predicted (which is questionable) they will have just enough revenues left at the end of their term to deliver the other 1% of the GST rollback. if they book it right.
 
JonB2004
#19
The idea of 0% ecoonmic growth in Canada is just speculation. The economy is expected to grow 3.3% this year.

And fine, if you don't believe me about health care wait times money, then I'll provide a link. Health care transfers are expected to grow by 6% every year. That means an extra $1.1 billion went to wait times this year. --

The made-in-Canada plan will probably be good. But we'll have to wait to October to see.

And Harper isn't broke.
 
Gonzo
Avatar
#20
How can a made in Canada environmental plan work? Canada cant even reach it's Kyoto targets. Kyoto managed to get major governments to sign on, thats the great thing about it. The world needs a global plan to curb greenhouse gases. A made in Canada plan would be useless.
 
BitWhys
Avatar
#21
Quote: Originally Posted by JonB2004

The idea of 0% ecoonmic growth in Canada is just speculation.

--

Quote:

Statistics Canada reported Monday that gross domestic product was essentially unchanged in May after edging up 0.1 per cent in both March and April, although it was up by 2.6 per cent from May of last year.

(0 + .1 + .1) * 4 = the 0.8 annualized

if that's not a sputtering economy nothing is.

speculate that.
 
BitWhys
Avatar
#22
Quote: Originally Posted by JonB2004

And fine, if you don't believe me about health care wait times money, then I'll provide a link. Health care transfers are expected to grow by 6% every year. That means an extra $1.1 billion went to wait times this year. --

The re-announcement of an existing (Liberal) program with no mandate to guarantee service is your idea of the CONservatives delivering on a promise?

really?

 
BitWhys
#23
Quote: Originally Posted by JonB2004

And Harper isn't broke.

says you

Quote:

The fiscal outlook for Ottawa that Mr. Drummond released yesterday shows the government cannot afford the full GST cut within the promised time frame unless it is introduced part way into the 2010-2011 fiscal year.

 
#juan
Avatar
#24
Even in 2006, Canada's economy was stronger than all of the G-7 countries. Another good indicator is the education of our children.

 
BitWhys
Avatar
#25
Oh I'm not sounding any alarms about the economy. The point is if this guy is right (op cit)...

Quote:

Far from reaching 3.2 per cent, "the economy will be hard-pressed to get above 2 1/2 per cent following today's results," wrote BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter.

Then Harper should be bracing himself for a $1B shortfall in projected revenues for the current fiscal year. Either that or hope gas prices go through the roof.
 
#juan
Avatar
#26
BitWhys

I still don't know why Harper was compelled to lower the GST. I think most people just wanted a change from the Liberals. Knocking a point off the GST is a pile of dough. I guess once he made the promise, he had to keep it. I've always liked the idea of the GST going completely to debt reduction. Oh well. Let's hope Harper doesn't add to the debt. That would make a lot of people unhappy.
 
JonB2004
#27
I'm aware that the GDP didn't grow in May. But the stock markets, energy prices and inflation were declining that month. Right now, the stock markets are much higher, energy prices are rising, and inflation is still high. Maybe the economy slowed down in May, but it looks like its regaining its speed.

OK, I'm wrong. Sorry about that. The Conservatives are re-annoucing a Liberal developed program.
 
BitWhys
Avatar
#28
Quote: Originally Posted by JonB2004

...Maybe the economy slowed down in May, but it looks like its regaining its speed...

I'm not saying it won't. What I'm saying is 0.6% out of 3.2% (ie. 18% of the projection) of projected growth for the year is MIA and unless the economy rebounds to ahead of pace (highly unlikely) that's going to effect the bottom line.
 
BitWhys
Avatar
#29
Quote: Originally Posted by #juan

BitWhys

I still don't know why Harper was compelled to lower the GST. I think most people just wanted a change from the Liberals. Knocking a point off the GST is a pile of dough. I guess once he made the promise, he had to keep it. I've always liked the idea of the GST going completely to debt reduction. Oh well. Let's hope Harper doesn't add to the debt. That would make a lot of people unhappy.

lousy policy. good politics. but even at that I don't think that now we're on the receiving side of phase 1 many people are really all that impressed.
 
BitWhys
Avatar
#30
Quote: Originally Posted by JonB2004

The made-in-Canada plan will probably be good. But we'll have to wait to October to see.

That'll be quite a stunt considering that just over three months ago David Suzuki surmised that when it comes to Harper's minions having a plan "they don’t have a **** ing clue".
 

Similar Threads

15
Conservatives and Liberals only four points apart
by Researcher87 | Oct 17th, 2006
24
3
Conservatives vs Liberals
by I think not | Jan 21st, 2006
no new posts