http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/07/03/surging-tories-escape-omnibus-backlash-as-pol

skookumchuck

Council Member
Jan 19, 2012
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Despite a recent poll surge that put the NDP ahead of the Tories, Thomas Mulcair’s party is now tied with the Conservatives, according to a new Forum Poll for the National Post.
The poll has the NDP and Tories neck-and-neck with 35% of the national vote, with the Liberals on 19% followed by the Bloc Quebecois (6%) and the Green party (3%).
The new data suggests the NDP has lost traction since mid-June when the party claimed on 37% of the vote. The Tories, however, rose in popularity to 35% from 30% mid-month, suggesting any backlash over the controversial omnibus budget bill, which was passed last month in a marathon session of parliament, was short-lived.
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If these predictions held true on Election Day, the Conservatives would capture a minority government with 144 seats — 17 more seats than the NDP’s 127. The Liberals would take 32 seats and the Bloc Quebecois four.
The Green Party would retain its one seat held by Elizabeth May.
Forum Research president Dr. Lorne Bozinoff said it was unclear what was behind the NDP’s setback.
“While the Conservatives have just begun running attack ads against Tom Mulcair, it is unlikely that they have had any effect on public opinion yet, so this misstep in the Official Opposition’s forward progress is due to some other externality,” he said.
“It will be interesting to see if this is a temporary setback or a more significant trend,” Bozinoff added.
A separate Ipsos Reid poll conducted less than two weeks ago indicated Mr. Mulcair and his party were the leading choice, with 38% of the popular vote. At the time, 35% of those polled said they would vote Conservative.
The Forum Poll comes less than two weeks after Parliament adjourned for a summer break.
The Spring session sitting was fraught with conflict between the Tories and opposition parties over the omnibus budget bill.
Bill c-38, dubbed the Jobs, Growth and Long-term Prosperity Act, made sweeping changes to environmental legislation, employment insurance rules and Old Age Security requirements.
The NDP called the 400-page piece of legislation the “Trojan Horse” bill and accused the Tories of trying to ram through an abundance of changes without enough scrutiny.
The Tories maintained the bill was necessary to bolster Canada’s shaky economy.
Parliament resumes sitting on Sept. 17.
The results of the Forum Poll are based on telephone surveys with 1,165 randomly selected Canadians residents, and are considered accurate +/- 2.87%, 19 time sout of 20
National Post