Unemployment is actually worse than numbers show


dumpthemonarchy
#1
The fed govt doesn't like any bad news, that's reserved for Europe, USA, and Japan. Coverup is the key for Harper. Looks like we're haivng our fall, but at a slower rate. And if the people protest, get the police to "kettle" them. Cancel the census and now this. Less information is better information.

With the USA sluggish and with little prospect of a recovery, it takes longer to find a job in Canada now.


Unemployment is actually worse than numbers show - The Globe and Mail




Unemployment is actually worse than numbers show

miles corak

Globe and Mail Blog

Posted on Friday, February 3, 2012 8:33AM EST


51 comments
Miles Corak is a professor of economics with the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa. The full version of this post is available at milescorak.com (external - login to view).

This morning, Statistics Canada reported that the unemployment rate increased to 7.6 per cent, confirming a rising trend since July of last year and still significantly above the low of about 6 per cent just before the recession took hold in the autumn of 2008.

This statistic is probably the closest a number can come to having a human face; it relates directly to the hardship Canadians experience in providing for their families, saving for their retirement, and just meeting their day-to-day needs.
But in the end we can't clearly see the faces of real people behind this number, which at best is an incomplete picture of waste and hardship.

Statistic Canada measures unemployment in a very specific way, asking a representative sample of Canadians if they did anything during a four week period to look for a job.

If you are not actively looking, then you are not considered unemployed.

Incorporating those who are not looking for work, but certainly want a job, into the calculations- -- those who are waiting for a recall from a previous employer or waiting for a reply to applications already made; those who have given up looking for jobs because they believe none are available; and those who are working part-time but want and can't get more hours of work--- leads to a much higher unemployment rate.

According to official calculations the average monthly unemployment rate during 2011 was 7.4 per cent, but the more comprehensive measure implies 10.6 per cent.

The official rate understates the waste of human resources, but it also doesn't tell us about the hardship being experienced.
A given unemployment rate could be due to rapid turnover in the labour market, with any one person experiencing a short spell of a job search, with a different group next month going through the same experience and also finding a job within a couple of weeks. Or it could reflect the same individuals being jobless each and every month of the year, and suffering very long spells of unemployment.

In the first case, unemployment does not entail much hardship; in the second it does.

In fact, the job losses triggered by the recession have led to much longer spells of unemployment.
Only 12 per cent of all the unemployed in 2008 had spent six or more months looking for a job. But in 2011 more than one-in-five, fully 21 per cent, were in this situation. Between these years the average length of an unemployment spell jumped by a month and half, from 14.8 weeks to 21.1 weeks.

All this said, the official unemployment rate is calculated using accepted international principles, and offers a good sense of how the job market is changing from month-to-month and year-to-year.
It also offers a basis for comparing the situation in our country to that in others.

While all statistical agencies follow the same principles in calculating these numbers, there remain subtle but important differences in how they are put into practice. This is the case in the comparison that is of most relevance to Canadians, that with the United States.

During 2011 the official unemployment rate in Canada was 1 1/2 percentage points lower than the U.S. rate (7.4 per cent versus 8.9 per cent).

But Statistics Canada offers an alternative calculation that follows as best as it can the procedures used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and when this alternative is used the gap in the unemployment rates is even larger: almost 2 1/2 percentage points (6.5 per cent versus 8.9 per cent).

This is one case in which the official measure is painting a less rosy picture than it should.
Statistics Canada is certainly aware of the fact that no one statistic can offer a full portrait of the unemployed even though it never presents a more nuanced analysis in any of its monthly reports. In fact the text of today's press release (external - login to view) mentions the word "unemployment" only once.

The official measure is no doubt central to any story about unemployment, but if you look hard you will find this well written article on its website, "Inside the labour market downturn (external - login to view)", that uses all eight unemployment rates that Statistics Canada in fact calculates every month.
 
Ron in Regina
#2
Wow, scary numbers. On a different note....

If someone out there has a couple of years of Loader experience,
we need bodies, and we don't work weekends, but we work lot's
during the weekdays. An experienced Loader operator would
be looking at a gross in the neighbourhood of $7000.00/month.
(Revenue Canada is going to just love you)

This is pit work (gravel) with good guys to work with. Awesome
guys. It's not for everyone, and it's long hours (minimum 12hr
days when out'a town), but it's good honest work. The more you
know...the more you're worth.

There is so much work, that the man running the show would like
to run 24hrs a day (day-shift 7am-7pm, & night-shift the other 12hrs),
but we need more people, and there's just more work that people.

This is in Saskatchewan, transportation to the jobsite from Regina.
You leave Sunday Night or Monday Morning early....and get home
(or to Regina at least) Friday evenings. The weekends are yours.
You'll be off usually mid to late December to February for vacations
and traveling and such...

Just planting the seed of an idea. When out'a town, you live in a
bunkhouse (costs you nothing) and all your meals are provided
(costs you nothing). Paid travel-time to the jobsite from Regina.
Yeah....that's about it.
 
Cliffy
#3
Had a friend who used to work for EI during the '81 recession. She said the numbers being broadcast at that time were only about 1/4 to 1/3rd of the actual numbers. They only count those on EI or waiting to get on. They don't count welfare people or those who have given up trying to find work or who are working at odd jobs part time, etc. She said that the numbers were more like 30 -35%. I wonder what the actual numbers are today.
 
PoliticalNick
+1
#4
Anybody with a class 1 or 3 license can have a job in the patch. I am seeking drivers for wireline services. 15 on / 6 off. About $3800/month plus % of invoice and a daily allowance in the field. Easy potential for $70k/yr in your first year. Oilfield tickets provided n/c if.you stay at least 1 year.

It is not hard work but entails some long hours and some travel (accomodation provided).
 
taxslave
#5
Quote: Originally Posted by Ron in ReginaView Post

Wow, scary numbers. On a different note....

If someone out there has a couple of years of Loader experience,
we need bodies, and we don't work weekends, but we work lot's
during the weekdays. An experienced Loader operator would
be looking at a gross in the neighbourhood of $7000.00/month.
(Revenue Canada is going to just love you)

This is pit work (gravel) with good guys to work with. Awesome
guys. It's not for everyone, and it's long hours (minimum 12hr
days when out'a town), but it's good honest work. The more you
know...the more you're worth.

There is so much work, that the man running the show would like
to run 24hrs a day (day-shift 7am-7pm, & night-shift the other 12hrs),
but we need more people, and there's just more work that people.

This is in Saskatchewan, transportation to the jobsite from Regina.
You leave Sunday Night or Monday Morning early....and get home
(or to Regina at least) Friday evenings. The weekends are yours.
You'll be off usually mid to late December to February for vacations
and traveling and such...

Just planting the seed of an idea. When out'a town, you live in a
bunkhouse (costs you nothing) and all your meals are provided
(costs you nothing). Paid travel-time to the jobsite from Regina.
Yeah....that's about it.

Couldn't find Regina on my Vancouver Island road map. Is that south of Nanaimo? Thought it might be another name for Victoria but that is too far south to travel.LOL

Dumpy: That is old news. As most people know stats can does not consider you unemployed once EI runs out. Much like the inflation rate is about double what they claim because they do not count volatile priced essentials like gas and food in their basket of goods. Smoke and Mirrors.
 
Highball
#6
I'm gald someone else saw this too. My area has over 21% truly une,ployed but only reports 12% due to the fact the other unemplyeds fell off the stats chart. They ran out of benefits and many quit looking for non-existant jobs. Now the fdes want to use more taxpayer dollars to create sham jobs to lower the numbers. America is on a slippery slope. Now war talk again too!! I'm sick of war and even sicker of political liars in elected offices!!
 
taxslave
#7
Quote: Originally Posted by HighballView Post

I'm gald someone else saw this too. My area has over 21% truly une,ployed but only reports 12% due to the fact the other unemplyeds fell off the stats chart. They ran out of benefits and many quit looking for non-existant jobs. Now the fdes want to use more taxpayer dollars to create sham jobs to lower the numbers. America is on a slippery slope. Now war talk again too!! I'm sick of war and even sicker of political liars in elected offices!!

Ever notice how close lawyer and liar are? Now look at how many politicians have law degrees.
 
Machjo
#8
Quote: Originally Posted by Ron in ReginaView Post

Wow, scary numbers. On a different note....

If someone out there has a couple of years of Loader experience,
we need bodies, and we don't work weekends, but we work lot's
during the weekdays. An experienced Loader operator would
be looking at a gross in the neighbourhood of $7000.00/month.
(Revenue Canada is going to just love you)

This is pit work (gravel) with good guys to work with. Awesome
guys. It's not for everyone, and it's long hours (minimum 12hr
days when out'a town), but it's good honest work. The more you
know...the more you're worth.

There is so much work, that the man running the show would like
to run 24hrs a day (day-shift 7am-7pm, & night-shift the other 12hrs),
but we need more people, and there's just more work that people.

This is in Saskatchewan, transportation to the jobsite from Regina.
You leave Sunday Night or Monday Morning early....and get home
(or to Regina at least) Friday evenings. The weekends are yours.
You'll be off usually mid to late December to February for vacations
and traveling and such...

Just planting the seed of an idea. When out'a town, you live in a
bunkhouse (costs you nothing) and all your meals are provided
(costs you nothing). Paid travel-time to the jobsite from Regina.
Yeah....that's about it.

There ya go. Train an unemployed person for the job and bingo.

Quote: Originally Posted by CliffyView Post

Had a friend who used to work for EI during the '81 recession. She said the numbers being broadcast at that time were only about 1/4 to 1/3rd of the actual numbers. They only count those on EI or waiting to get on. They don't count welfare people or those who have given up trying to find work or who are working at odd jobs part time, etc. She said that the numbers were more like 30 -35%. I wonder what the actual numbers are today.

That's standard. Worldwide they do not count the unemployed who are not actively looking for work.

Quote: Originally Posted by HighballView Post

I'm gald someone else saw this too. My area has over 21% truly une,ployed but only reports 12% due to the fact the other unemplyeds fell off the stats chart. They ran out of benefits and many quit looking for non-existant jobs. Now the fdes want to use more taxpayer dollars to create sham jobs to lower the numbers. America is on a slippery slope. Now war talk again too!! I'm sick of war and even sicker of political liars in elected offices!!

Instead of creating sham jobs, how about training the unemployed for the jobs thata re already out there.
 
Liberalman
+1
#9
If Canada wants to create new jobs then kill the global economy because it is not working and bring back tariffs and the manufacturing sector will grow again.
 
Machjo
#10
Quote: Originally Posted by LiberalmanView Post

If Canada wants to create new jobs then kill the global economy because it is not working and bring back tariffs and the manufacturing sector will grow again.


... along with inflation.
 
darkbeaver
#11
As has been said many times here at CC the lower classes just do not understand how science works. I'm surprised that my fellow posters would spread horrible anti fascist Harper conspiracy theories about manipulation of numbers and facts by lawyers and politicians, the staunch loyal forward looking backbone of this fine globalist nation. sarc alert
 
bobnoorduyn
+1
#12
Quote: Originally Posted by PoliticalNickView Post

Anybody with a class 1 or 3 license can have a job in the patch. I am seeking drivers for wireline services. 15 on / 6 off. About $3800/month plus % of invoice and a daily allowance in the field. Easy potential for $70k/yr in your first year. Oilfield tickets provided n/c if.you stay at least 1 year.

It is not hard work but entails some long hours and some travel (accomodation provided).

My youngest's daughter's boyfriend started a new job less than a year ago, with no papers of any sort. Since then they have trained him in all sorts of HAZMAT, WHMIS, and for other certificates that I have no idea what they are, got him his Class 3 and airbrake endorsement, all while on the payroll. Not too shabby. The opportunites are out there, but folks actually have to go looking for them.
 
mentalfloss
#13
Corporate tax cuts are not working.
 
captain morgan
#14
Neither is paying people not to work
 
mentalfloss
#15
Quote: Originally Posted by captain morganView Post

Neither is paying people not to work

Well you shouldn't do that cap. It's probably bad for your company's profits.
 
captain morgan
+1
#16
Glad we're on the same page here. Now you just need to apply that premise to the Corporation of Canada
 
Machjo
#17
Quote: Originally Posted by captain morganView Post

Glad we're on the same page here. Now you just need to apply that premise to the Corporation of Canada

And I would bet most people would prefer to work at slightly below minimum-wage than to live on social assistance at half of what slightly below minimum-wage would pay, but try to explain that logic to a bleeding-heart.
 
CDNBear
#18
Quote: Originally Posted by MachjoView Post

And I would bet most people would prefer to work at slightly below minimum-wage than to live on social assistance at half of what slightly below minimum-wage would pay, but try to explain that logic to a bleeding-heart.

These guys would rather collect EI/welfare, than have their well above minimum wages cut.
 
wulfie68
+1
#19
Well first off, this "phenomenom" isn't new: its always been that way: people have always been left off the "unemployed" stats for the same reasons since they started tracking them. Blame Harper and the Conservatives for some new exploitation of the stats is BS. In areas/times of economic downturn/recession/depression people fall off the rolls of UI and other programs and are not always accurately accounted for.

Secondly I do laugh at the notion of someone who "wants a job but is not actively looking". WTF do they expect? That the job fairy will wave her magic wand and offer letters will appear in their mailbox? I know its hard out there in some areas and particularly for those who are focused on one industry/sector but for many it does come down to priorities: do you want to work in your chosen field or do you just want a job to pay the bills. For some they want (and in some cases think they need or entitled are to) their choice of field and it doesn't always work out...
 
captain morgan
#20
Quote: Originally Posted by MachjoView Post

And I would bet most people would prefer to work at slightly below minimum-wage than to live on social assistance at half of what slightly below minimum-wage would pay, but try to explain that logic to a bleeding-heart.


Grow up already Machjo. The comment was made in response to the generalization that corp tax cuts 'don't work'... You can point to a few examples where it's failed, but there are far more examples where it's worked and kept people on payroll as opposed to the EI and welfare scrolls.

That said, if you feel the EI or welfare rates are too low, jump in your car, head to the bank and withdraw as much as you wish to donate. Drop by the gvt offices where you'll find the applicants and you can hand out the extra money directly to the recipients.
 
Cliffy
#21
Quote: Originally Posted by wulfie68View Post

Well first off, this "phenomenom" isn't new: its always been that way: people have always been left off the "unemployed" stats for the same reasons since they started tracking them. Blame Harper and the Conservatives for some new exploitation of the stats is BS.

I agree. Blaming Harper for this is BS when there are so many other legitimate things to blame him for. Sounds like just another smoke screen to divert peoples' attention.
 
Machjo
#22
Quote: Originally Posted by CDNBearView Post

These guys would rather collect EI/welfare, than have their well above minimum wages cut.

If they want welfare, then give it to them for awhile. Maybe they'll be more appreciative when they go back into the workforce. It might also make them more understanding of those unemployed who would love to work at even slightly below minimum wage but who have essentially been legislated out of the workplace.

Honestly, I'd love to see an MP present a private member's bill to scrap the mandatory minimum wage and also guarantee an income equal to at least full-time minimum wage to all unemployed Canadians. This would put the NDP in a pretty tough bind since, even if it won a majority, it would be stuck with the dilemma of reintroducing the minimum wage and busting the federal budget, or eliminating the requirement on the government to pay the unemployed the equivalent of full-time minimum wage, which would hurt its voting base. I really would love to see an MP pass such a bill. And besides, from the standpoint of justice, if you're going to legislate a person out of his fundamental right to employment, it would be only fair to compensate him accordingly.

Quote: Originally Posted by captain morganView Post

Grow up already Machjo. The comment was made in response to the generalization that corp tax cuts 'don't work'... You can point to a few examples where it's failed, but there are far more examples where it's worked and kept people on payroll as opposed to the EI and welfare scrolls.

That said, if you feel the EI or welfare rates are too low, jump in your car, head to the bank and withdraw as much as you wish to donate. Drop by the gvt offices where you'll find the applicants and you can hand out the extra money directly to the recipients.

What are you on about. I was simply saying that sometimes we think we know what's best for the unemployed and so introduce all kinds of laws to try to protect them with all those laws merely having the opposite of their intended effect. Minimum wage legislation falls into that category too.
 
captain morgan
#23
Quote: Originally Posted by MachjoView Post

What are you on about. I was simply saying that sometimes we think we know what's best for the unemployed and so introduce all kinds of laws to try to protect them with all those laws merely having the opposite of their intended effect. Minimum wage legislation falls into that category too.

Sorry Machjo, I must have misinterpreted your post.
 
Machjo
#24
Quote: Originally Posted by captain morganView Post

Sorry Machjo, I must have misinterpreted your post.

Fair enough. There was no sarcasm in that post.
 
Tonington
#25
Quote: Originally Posted by taxslaveView Post

Dumpy: That is old news. As most people know stats can does not consider you unemployed once EI runs out. Much like the inflation rate is about double what they claim because they do not count volatile priced essentials like gas and food in their basket of goods. Smoke and Mirrors.

Stats Canada does not exclude gas and food...inflation is tracked in Canada with the Consumer Price Index, which is made up from eight components:
  • food
  • shelter
  • household operations, furnishings, and equipment
  • clothing and footwear
  • transportation
  • health and personal care
  • recreation, education, and reading
  • alcoholic beverages and tobacco products
Gasoline is found in the transportation bucket...food in the food bucket.
 
Liberalman
#26
Quote: Originally Posted by MachjoView Post

... along with inflation.
[/FONT][/FONT]

The masses control inflation by making decisions when to buy if companies want to stay in business they won’t gouge the consumer.
 
CDNBear
+1
#27
Quote: Originally Posted by LiberalmanView Post

The masses control inflation by making decisions when to buy if companies want to stay in business they won’t gouge the consumer.

Roger's seems to be doing just fine.

 
SLM
+2
#28
Quote: Originally Posted by LiberalmanView Post

The masses control inflation by making decisions when to buy if companies want to stay in business they won’t gouge the consumer.

In order for that concept to work, consumers need to have a choice.

Quote: Originally Posted by CDNBearView Post

Roger's seems to be doing just fine.

Yep and I'm sure it has nothing to do with their virtual stranglehold on consumers due to their monopoly either.
 
CDNBear
+2
#29
Quote: Originally Posted by SLMView Post

In order for that concept to work, consumers need to have a choice.

Yep and I'm sure it has nothing to do with their virtual stranglehold on consumers due to their monopoly either.

With the help of the CRTC.
 
SLM
+2
#30
Quote: Originally Posted by CDNBearView Post

With the help of the CRTC.

Well they keep all our monopolies chugging along don't they?

In my opinion government, in all it's guises, should keep their nose out of business for the most part. The only usefulness of regulations that I can see would be in areas such as health & safety or issues surrounding work hours and such.

All government does is muddy up the waters. After all they (government) is not exactly known for their stellar business acumen are they?
 

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