Japanese to Shrink by One-Third


Spade
#1
BBC News - Japan population to shrink by one-third by 2060 (external - login to view)

How will the overpopulated archipelago handle this decline? Accompanying this decline is an increase in life expectancy. By 2060, Japanese women will live, on average, to 90.9. Only 50% of the population will be of workplace age: 15 to 65. What should Japan do?
* Increase immigration from the West, Middle East, or other Asian nations?
* Invite our Prime Minister to study their pension plans? Increasing retirement age or decreasing/eliminating benefits are options.
* Advance robotics so fewer people have to work?
* Turn asphalt and concrete back into green spaces.
* Boost the birth rate through government incentives?

What would Canada do?

Apparently, no one cares about the Japanese except when a tsunami washes a sea of destruction the size of California into the Pacific. Sic transit gloria Asiae.
 
Cliffy
+1
#2
Quote: Originally Posted by SpadeView Post

BBC News - Japan population to shrink by one-third by 2060 (external - login to view)

How will the overpopulated archipelago handle this decline? Accompanying this decline is an increase in life expectancy. By 2060, Japanese women will live, on average, to 90.9. Only 50% of the population will be of workplace age: 15 to 65. What should Japan do?
* Increase immigration from the West, Middle East, or other Asian nations?
* Invite our Prime Minister to study their pension plans? Increasing retirement age or decreasing/eliminating benefits are options.
* Advance robotics so fewer people have to work?
* Turn asphalt and concrete back into green spaces.
* Boost the birth rate through government incentives?

What would Canada do?

Apparently, no one cares about the Japanese except when a tsunami washes a sea of destruction the size of California into the Pacific. Sic transit gloria Asiae.

They will shrink by 1/3? Most are already pretty short.

Call Harper. He has his finger up... oops, on the pulse of the world. The man is a genius. He can play the piano and sing Beatles tunes at the same time! I stand in aw of his greatness.
 
Goober
#3
Quote: Originally Posted by CliffyView Post

They will shrink by 1/3? Most are already pretty short.

Call Harper. He has his finger up... oops, on the pulse of the world. The man is a genius. He can play the piano and sing Beatles tunes at the same time! I stand in aw of his greatness.

Yeah, average height for males is 5 ft 7 1/2 inches. 67 inches divided by 3 is approx 22 inches. I think a name change would be in order. Say Land O Dwarfs.
 
bill barilko
#4
What makes you think

1-Japan is overpopulated

2-that a dropping population is some kind of problem?

There'll be even more money to go around and the food will still be wonderful-where's the problem?
 
L Gilbert
#5
Quote: Originally Posted by GooberView Post

Yeah, average height for males is 5 ft 7 1/2 inches. 67 inches divided by 3 is approx 22 inches. I think a name change would be in order. Say Land O Dwarfs.

Lilliput.

Quote: Originally Posted by bill barilkoView Post

What makes you think

1-Japan is overpopulated

The density.

Quote:

2-that a dropping population is some kind of problem?

There'll be even more money to go around and the food will still be wonderful-where's the problem?

Sounds fine to me.
 
taxslave
#6
Should lower property values back out of the stratosphere.
 
L Gilbert
#7
Quote: Originally Posted by taxslaveView Post

Should lower property values back out of the stratosphere.

lol That, too.
 
Omicron
#8
Once again we see a sad situation of Ottawa missing a mark which I happen to know Russians are jealous of and will only find satisfaction seeing us fail at it...

And that is.. (dummys)...

Japan has the smartest people, capable of living on an Island devoid of resources.

They are not asking to move here.

Do you get it... they are not asking to over-populate Canada.

They just want resources.

In exchange, Canada gets first dibs on the best technology.

Lucifer hates that, and is going to insist upon Harvard MBA-holes telling Ottawa how to invest, when in fact what you have before you is a strong people humbled by their (real-estate) financial collapse in the early 90's. They had the strongest banking system on the planet until the creeps causing the financial collapse of 2008 rigged the takeover of their post-office saving-system for a few people of heartlessness to bring down more in order for more souls be there to be eaten by Lucifer... it's a fungus thing.

There is a way to make trade deals both with China and Japan even though they hate each other.

There is in fact a way to make productivity of people go top notch. In fact when properly organized humans can do industrialized civilization with agriculture and space exploration on 18-24 hours per week when properly organized. The enemy is Lucifer... a fungus.

Obviously, you take over a fungus and use it to destroy things that no photosynthetic creature can. Because fungus's are free of chloroplasts it means they have vastly wider range of biochemical reach. They can do things like kill bacteria with antibiotics.

Back in time we did not know how fungus's like Lucifer were pretending to help when it being bigger but less that infinite pretending to be strong enough to help humans evolve from dust.

You are going to do what humans do best, which is be clever while pretending to be smart and trade back with God all the reasons he got pinched to create while not bugging Him about why you were created any more than you are going to wonder how you got to be born out of a billion sperm while being grateful for how you're going to live forever if He wins.

Armageddon could be done in space as an economic game if intelligent loving people were in charge... the energy is going to have to be spent, but time/space/quantum-physics can have it turn out a different way...

You're going to love helping your friend go back to China to explain how cheeze and currey work.

You're going to get your own Galaxy... possible requirement of help from those to be saved and called Angles.


All the things you did to f-ck up the economy has to be backed off, and we want to put your followers into pioneer-positions onto new planets.

If you want to change time and space in a way nobody could have imagined, in a way that will cause humans to bless it if you take whatever galaxy you want regardless of how things started, it will be you do something weird, like tell the US Federal Reserve to print dollar-bills with a strip of gold in it exactly equal to a dollar.

Anyway... yes I know how Gorbachov stopped the first round in spite of how geared up the frikkin Americans were...

Plus I've notice how sad it is doing business under Russian Oligarchs as if its any different from doing business under Romanoff Tzars... It's like doing business under Chinese mandarins, which is how the Chinse system is working according to their nature, as if they'd ever functioned under anything other than a mandarin system... Does this mean that regardless of official government, Canadians and Americans will not work if the government is not doing it's job by virtue of some sort of consensus, such that if I can deak the mind of everyone around me, I can take control under excuse of Republican Denmocracy?

In a second I can make a trade deal with Iran of southern-Alberta lamb for the world's best carpets, and your next big problem is going to be if you can trade with southern-Alberta foothills sheep growers for those carpets for what they are worth after they are sick and tired of walking over twelve inches of them, for lamb must be eaten all the time, yet a well-made carpet needs be made only once.

Pathetic sadites from Wall Street will hate them for getting a good deal of the type leading away from war against Iran, one of the world's fundamental people like French... justified if they can get a bomb... but don't tell anyone... they are not Indian nor Arab. Look at a map. You will see their borders are defined exactly according to a mountain system. If organized according to UN principals they could take on governing those dicky little stani republics the Russians abandoned after the collapse of Sovietism... such that Iran could become regulators over them like France is over North Africa, which would definitely be cheaper in terms of the cost of maintaining global trade.

Anyway... boo the **** hoo. Let's see you go out and raise sheep and see if it makes you money.

By the way... I so totally do not know how to explain this to the f-cking pieces Luciferian business-wise geeks too stupid to read a Bible much less understand it, but China does not want to do Armageddon. They read the Bible and don't want to do it.


The smartest business people from both sides are going to bypass that worse-case-scenario prediction/prophesy and are going to frikkin' tart colonizing the solar-system and then the galaxy without war.

Now... I know it might sound silly... but there's a couple things to know, aside from how Chinse will split the galaxy with you if you can see how retarded it was for you to bail out exactly the people to bring you down, and how it was therefore justified for them to keep themselves alive... and it is...

I) They don't like cheeze. Eskimos don 't l;like cheese. Asians don't like cheese. They think cheese makes us stink. To them, cheese is as rank as Vietnamese fish sauce (is to us). I cannot live without milk-products, so the inventor of the/a deodorant-spray to cancel out the smell of dairy-products on my body when meeting with Asians will find himself as the seller with a bottle of product bought.

After that, they're nicer than you think. They'll let you starve to death if you want, but otherwise, they won't let you die if you want to live, which might have something to do with how their idea of discipline is to have only one kid per family.
Last edited by Omicron; Jan 31st, 2012 at 03:52 AM..
 
Tonington
#9
Quote: Originally Posted by bill barilkoView Post


There'll be even more money to go around and the food will still be wonderful-where's the problem?

The population will be older, and with fewer workers. Life expectancies of 85-90 years of age; the problem is the welfare Japan will need to either finance, or cut back. A demographic shift many countries are experiencing, but few are planning for.
 
Johnnny
#10
Quote:

Apparently, no one cares about the Japanese except when a tsunami washes a sea of destruction the size of California into the Pacific. Sic transit gloria Asiae

Of course the world cares about when a tsunami washes away alot of japan, but why should we care about their problems.... Mabye if they lax'ed their immigration system they wouldnt be in such a problem like this.... And besides we have the problem too as does the rest of the west, why arent you shedding a tear for them?
 
Spade
#11
My heart is too hard.
 
WLDB
+1
#12
If the life expectancy goes up then it makes sense to raise the retirement age.

It'd be nice if more countries had a population decline.
 
dumpthemonarchy
#13
- the BBC has no idea what will happen 50 year hence, they lose credibility here

- sounds like the media in Canada wailing about the "impending" labour shortage, but we don't have one now, but we need lots of immigration anyway

- it baffles me that we get all these woe is Japan stories despite increases in their standard of living and lifespans continue to rise

- we really like Japan, at least the Discovery Channel does


Here's a good story about how Japan is actually doing very very well. Such as, the unemployment is at 4.2%. The pain.

www.nytimes.com/2012/01/08/op...pagewanted=all (external - login to view)


The Myth of Japan’s Failure
By EAMONN FINGLETON

Published: January 6, 2012
  • Recommend
Tokyo

Enlarge This Image (external - login to view)

Kosuke Okahara for The New York Times

The fashionable Shibuya neighborhood in Tokyo.



Multimedia


Graphic
What ‘Lost Decade’? (external - login to view)






DESPITE some small signs of optimism about the United States economy, unemployment is still high, and the country seems stalled.



Time and again, Americans are told to look to Japan (external - login to view) as a warning of what the country might become if the right path is not followed, although there is intense disagreement about what that path might be. Here, for instance, is how the CNN analyst David Gergen (external - login to view) has described Japan: “It’s now a very demoralized country and it has really been set back.”

But that presentation of Japan is a myth. By many measures, the Japanese economy has done very well during the so-called lost decades, which started with a stock market crash in January 1990. By some of the most important measures, it has done a lot better than the United States.

Japan has succeeded in delivering an increasingly affluent lifestyle to its people despite the financial crash. In the fullness of time, it is likely that this era will be viewed as an outstanding success story.

How can the reality and the image be so different? And can the United States learn from Japan’s experience?
It is true that Japanese housing prices have never returned to the ludicrous highs they briefly touched in the wild final stage of the boom. Neither has the Tokyo stock market.

But the strength of Japan’s economy and its people is evident in many ways. There are a number of facts and figures that don’t quite square with Japan’s image as the laughingstock of the business pages:
• Japan’s average life expectancy (external - login to view) at birth grew by 4.2 years — to 83 years from 78.8 years — between 1989 and 2009. This means the Japanese now typically live 4.8 years longer than Americans. The progress, moreover, was achieved in spite of, rather than because of, diet. The Japanese people are eating more Western food than ever. The key driver has been better health care.
• Japan has made remarkable strides in Internet infrastructure. Although as late as the mid-1990s it was ridiculed as lagging, it has now turned the tables. In a recent survey by Akamai Technologies, of the 50 cities in the world with the fastest Internet service, 38 were in Japan, compared to only 3 in the United States.

• Measured from the end of 1989, the yen has risen 87 percent against the U.S. dollar and 94 percent against the British pound. It has even risen against that traditional icon of monetary rectitude, the Swiss franc.
• The unemployment rate is 4.2 percent, about half of that in the United States.
• According to skyscraperpage.com (external - login to view), a Web site that tracks major buildings around the world, 81 high-rise buildings taller than 500 feet have been constructed in Tokyo since the “lost decades” began. That compares with 64 in New York, 48 in Chicago, and 7 in Los Angeles.

• Japan’s current account surplus — the widest measure of its trade — totaled $196 billion in 2010, up more than threefold since 1989. By comparison, America’s current account deficit ballooned to $471 billion from $99 billion in that time. Although in the 1990s the conventional wisdom was that as a result of China’s rise Japan would be a major loser and the United States a major winner, it has not turned out that way. Japan has increased its exports to China more than 14-fold since 1989 and Chinese-Japanese bilateral trade remains in broad balance.

As longtime Japan watchers like Ivan P. Hall and Clyde V. Prestowitz Jr. point out, the fallacy of the “lost decades” story is apparent to American visitors the moment they set foot in the country. Typically starting their journeys at such potent symbols of American infrastructural decay as Kennedy or Dulles airports, they land at Japanese airports that have been extensively expanded and modernized in recent years.

William J. Holstein (external - login to view), a prominent Japan watcher since the early 1980s, recently visited the country for the first time in some years. “There’s a dramatic gap between what one reads in the United States and what one sees on the ground in Japan,” he said. “The Japanese are dressed better than Americans. They have the latest cars, including Porsches, Audis, Mercedes-Benzes and all the finest models. I have never seen so many spoiled pets. And the physical infrastructure of the country keeps improving and evolving.”
Why, then, is Japan seen as a loser? On the official gross domestic product (external - login to view) numbers, the United States has ostensibly outperformed Japan for many years. But even taking America’s official numbers at face value, the difference has been far narrower than people realize. Adjusted to a per-capita basis (which is the proper way to do this) and measured since 1989, America’s G.D.P. grew by an average of just 1.4 percent a year. Japan’s figure meanwhile was even more anemic — just 1 percent — implying that it underperformed the United States by 0.4 percent a year.

A look at the underlying accounting, however, suggests that, far from underperforming, Japan may have outperformed. For a start, in a little noticed change, United States statisticians in the 1980s embarked on an increasingly aggressive use of the so-called hedonic method of adjusting for inflation, an approach that in the view of many experts artificially boosts a nation’s apparent growth rate.
On the calculations of John Williams of Shadowstats.com (external - login to view), a Web site that tracks flaws in United States economic data, America’s growth in recent decades has been overstated by as much as 2 percentage points a year. If he is even close to the truth, this factor alone may put the United States behind Japan in per-capita performance.

If the Japanese have really been hurting, the most obvious place this would show would be in slow adoption of expensive new high-tech items. Yet the Japanese are consistently among the world’s earliest adopters. If anything, it is Americans who have been lagging. In cellphones, for instance, Japan leapfrogged the United States in the space of a few years in the late 1990s and it has stayed ahead ever since, with consumers moving exceptionally rapidly to ever more advanced devices.

Much of the story is qualitative rather than quantitative. An example is Japan’s eating-out culture. Tokyo, according to the Michelin Guide, boasts 16 of the world’s top-ranked restaurants, versus a mere 10 for the runner-up, Paris. Similarly Japan as a whole beats France in the Michelin ratings. But how do you express this in G.D.P. terms?

Similar problems arise in measuring improvements in the Japanese health care system. And how does one accurately convey the vast improvement in the general environment in Japan in the last two decades?

Luckily there is a yardstick that finesses many of these problems: electricity output, which is mainly a measure of consumer affluence and industrial activity. In the 1990s, while Japan was being widely portrayed as an outright “basket case,” its rate of increase in per-capita electricity output was twice that of America, and it continued to outperform into the new century.

Part of what is going on here is Western psychology. Anyone who has followed the story long-term cannot help but notice that many Westerners actively seek to belittle Japan. Thus every policy success is automatically discounted. It is a mind-set that is much in evidence even among Tokyo-based Western diplomats and scholars.

Take, for instance, how Western observers have viewed Japan’s demographics. The population is getting older because of a low birthrate, a characteristic Japan shares with many of the world’s richest nations. Yet this is presented not only as a critical problem but as a policy failure. It never seems to occur to Western commentators that the Japanese both individually and collectively have chosen their demographic fate — and have good reasons for doing so.

The story begins in the terrible winter of 1945-6, when, newly bereft of their empire, the Japanese nearly starved to death. With overseas expansion no longer an option, Japanese leaders determined as a top priority to cut the birthrate. Thereafter a culture of small families set in that has continued to the present day.

Japan’s motivation is clear: food security. With only about one-third as much arable land per capita as China, Japan has long been the world’s largest net food importer. While the birth control policy is the primary cause of Japan’s aging demographics, the phenomenon also reflects improved health care and an increase of more than 20 years in life expectancy since 1950.

Psychology aside, a major factor in the West’s comprehension problem is that virtually everyone in Tokyo benefits from the doom and gloom story. For foreign sales representatives, for instance, it has been the perfect get-out-of-jail card when they don’t reach their quotas. For Japanese foundations it is the perfect excuse in politely waving away solicitations from American universities and other needy nonprofits. Ditto for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in tempering expectations of foreign aid recipients. Even American investment bankers have reasons to emphasize bad news. Most notably they profit from the so-called yen-carry trade, an arcane but powerful investment strategy in which the well informed benefit from periodic bouts of weakness in the Japanese yen.

Economic ideology has also played an unfortunate role. Many economists, particularly right-wing think-tank types, are such staunch advocates of laissez-faire that they reflexively scorn Japan’s very different economic system, with its socialist medicine and ubiquitous government regulation. During the stock market bubble of the late 1980s, this mind-set abated but it came back after the crash.
Japanese trade negotiators noticed an almost magical sweetening in the mood in foreign capitals after the stock market crashed in 1990. Although previously there had been much envy of Japan abroad (and serious talk of protectionist (external - login to view) measures), in the new circumstances American and European trade negotiators switched to feeling sorry for the “fallen giant.” Nothing if not fast learners, Japanese trade negotiators have been appealing for sympathy ever since.

The strategy seems to have been particularly effective in Washington. Believing that you shouldn’t kick a man when he is down, chivalrous American officials have largely given up pressing for the opening of Japan’s markets. Yet the great United States trade complaints of the late 1980s — concerning rice, financial services, cars and car components — were never remedied.
The “fallen giant” story has also even been useful to other East Asian nations, particularly in their trade diplomacy with the United States.

A striking instance of how the story has influenced American perceptions appears in “The Next 100 Years,” by the consultant George Friedman. In a chapter headed “China 2020: Paper Tiger,” Mr. Friedman argues that, just as Japan “failed” in the 1990s, China will soon have its comeuppance. Talk of this sort powerfully fosters complacency and confusion in Washington in the face of a United States-China trade relationship that is already arguably the most destructive in world history and certainly the most unbalanced.

Clearly the question of what has really happened to Japan is of first-order geopolitical importance. In a stunning refutation of American conventional wisdom, Japan has not missed a beat in building an ever more sophisticated industrial base. That this is not more obvious is a tribute in part to the fact that Japanese manufacturers have graduated to making so-called producers’ goods. These typically consist of advanced components or materials, or precision production equipment. They may be invisible to the consumer, yet without them the modern world literally would not exist. This sort of manufacturing, which is both highly capital-intensive and highly know-how-intensive, was virtually monopolized by the United States in the 1950s and 1960s and constituted the essence of American economic leadership.

Japan’s achievement is all the more impressive for the fact that its major competitors — Germany, South Korea, Taiwan and, of course, China — have hardly been standing still. The world has gone through a rapid industrial revolution in the last two decades thanks to the “targeting” of manufacturing by many East Asian nations. Yet Japan’s trade surpluses have risen.

Japan should be held up as a model, not an admonition. If a nation can summon the will to pull together, it can turn even the most unpromising circumstances to advantage. Here Japan’s constant upgrading of its infrastructure is surely an inspiration. It is a strategy that often requires cooperation across a wide political front, but such cooperation has not been beyond the American political system in the past. The Hoover Dam, that iconic project of the Depression, required negotiations among seven states but somehow it was built — and it provided jobs for 16,000 people in the process. Nothing is stopping similar progress now — nothing, except political bickering.
 
MHz
+1
#14
Put the oldest nearest the radiation and the youngest further away.
 
bill barilko
#15
I ate @ Hime Sushi up on Broadway (external - login to view) last night and Man was it Good!

100% Japanese run/staffed place and it shows in the cleanliness, the wonderful friendly service/quality of the food and attention to detail.

You should be so lucky!
 
gerryh
+1
#16
From what I've been told.... they can't afford to shrink by a third..... their not that big as is.
 
Tonington
+2
#17  Top Rated Post
Quote: Originally Posted by dumpthemonarchyView Post

- the BBC has no idea what will happen 50 year hence, they lose credibility here.

BBC is just reporting...did you bother to read the first line in the article linked to in the OP? This bit:
Quote:

The Japanese population is expected to shrink by one third in the next half century, a government report says. [emphasis mine]

 
gerryh
#18
Quote: Originally Posted by ToningtonView Post

BBC is just reporting...did you bother to read the first line in the article linked to in the OP? This bit:


Geez Ton...would you cut...it...out!
 
dumpthemonarchy
#19
My post opposes the idea woe is Japan. A 33% drop in pop! How will they survive. How can things be so bad when their sushi is so good?
 
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