An update regarding yesterday's protests:
Size: About 20,000 demonstrators, mostly young people. Enough to overwhelm government security forces.
Dead: 4 (3 protesters and 1 police officer)
Complaints: poverty, unemployment, corruption and repression
Demands: Mubarak dissolve government and hand power to a caretaker government until democratic elections.
Government Response: protesters and strikers will be detained
Root cause: Egypt's population of 80 million is growing by 2 percent a year. About 60 percent of the population -- and 90 percent of the unemployed -- are under 30 years old. About 40 percent live on less than $2 a day, and a third are illiterate. Egypt's State of Emergency is in its 30th year and was recently extended for another 2 years.
Twitter, the Internet messaging service that has been one of the main methods used by demonstrators to organize, was blocked yesterday.
Protesters have invited the police, military and government security forces to help free Egypt from authoritarian rule by joining them or going on strike.
If yesterday was a one time event and Mubarak's government stands, hunting down the instigators will be a top priority.
If protests continue today, grow in size, and involve Egypt's opposition, but not security forces, then this will get ugly. I expect that Mubarak will authorize deadly force. He's maintained his grip on power through fear and intimidation. Mubarak gets billions in US aid each year, including arms and the tools required to maintain his grip on power.
If police, military and other security forces go on strike or join the protests, then the government will fall and Mubarak will be forced to flee the country. BTW, his wife, son and family left Egypt for London yesterday.
Amnesty International 2010 Report
Egypt
The government continued to use state of emergency
powers to detain peaceful critics and opponents as
well as people suspected of security offences or
involvement in terrorism. Some were held under
administrative detention orders; others were
sentenced to prison terms after unfair trials before
military courts. Torture and other ill-treatment
remained widespread in police cells, security police
detention centres and prisons, and in most cases
were committed with impunity. The rights to freedom
of expression, association and assembly were
curtailed; journalists and bloggers were among those
detained or prosecuted. Hundreds of families
residing in Cairo’s “unsafe areas” were forcibly
evicted; some were left homeless, others were
relocated but without security of tenure. Men
perceived to be gay continued to be prosecuted
under a “debauchery” law. At least 19 people
seeking to cross into Israel were shot dead by border
guards, apparently while posing no threat. At least
269 people were sentenced to death, and at least
five were executed.
http://thereport.amnesty.org/sites/default/files/AIR2010_AZ_EN.pdf#page=77
The word out of Egypt is that protests will continue on Friday
So don't expect much to happen until then.
A crackdown in Egypt, and Tunisia too - CSMonitor.com
