Middle East War - Iran- Syria -Lebanon - Israel - US


View Poll Results: Will US/Israel permit Iran - Nuclear Weapons -or will we have War or Not
Will the US attack Iran to prevent /slow down /destroy their nuclear program 0 0%
Will this spread to the rest of the Mid East 1 11.11%
Will The US permit Iran to go Nuclear 0 0%
Will an attack on Iran bring about Regime Change 1 11.11%
Will Israel if the US does not - attack Iran nuclear facilities 4 44.44%
Will a sole Israeli attack spread to the rest of the Mid East 1 11.11%
No War will ocurr in the Mid East in the next year 5 55.56%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 9. You may not vote on this poll

Goober
Free Thinker
Avatar
#1
Middle East War - Iran- Syria -Lebanon - Israel - US

War is coming to the Middle East -One way or another either this year or next and it will be messy but it is coming.

The new UN Sanctions allow for the boarding of Iranian Ships - Now we know that will not make them happy.

Neither Israel or the US will allow the Iranians to have Nukes

No US President will allow Iran to go Nuclear - Does not matter which party - Dem or Repub - Whoever did allow it would not hold the Office of President for the next 20-40 years. The Political fallout would be felt in every election from Congress, Senate and the Presidency.

Allowing Iran to have Nukes, the country that supports Terror Groups would and will not be tolerated by the US

Will talks work - Maybe - But I think Imanutjob has not only painted himself into a corner he is in conflict with the Great Ayatollah - Now who runs Iran. The power struggle between the Hardliners and the Ayatollah has been ongoing for quite some time.

Hezbollah has been rearmed and has newer longer range missiles capable of hitting any targets in Israel including the nuclear plant.

Hezbollah while possessing some Anti Aircraft missiles would cause a lot of grief for Israel as in the loss of Aircraft & Pilots - It will also be a land war as well.

Syria - Could be first on the list - Then Hezbollah -

While the Israeli's can do some damage it would take a sustained bombing campaign to destroy the majority of the facilities and the Israeli's do not have the aircraft or the ability to do this.

My opinion - It will be a US operation and Israel will be on the sidelines and told to wait until attacked. Then Israel will - Syria and the Hezbollah.

Obama will not authorize any Bombing campaign against Iran prior to the Nov Elections for fear of upsetting the doves in the Democratic Party

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ironsides
No Party Affiliation
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#2
Very good topic, so far I have no possible scenario in mind, but I will soon.
 
earth_as_one
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+1
#3
The US and Israel claim Iran is secretly building nuclear weapons. Yet they have no proof to back up their claims. Meanwhile the IAEA has been able to inspect any Iranian facility at any time and interview any Iranian for years now and they also have no evidence Iran is trying to build nukes. The IAEA has some minor issues regarding Iran's legal NPT compliant activities but nothing serious or consequential, unless minor book keeping errors and an empty building under construction count as nuclear weapons.

If Iran was secretly building nukes, then where are they? They've been refining uranium for at least seven years now. If they had secret nuclear facilities, that no one knows about, then they should have detonated their first nuke by now.

The US and Israel levelled the exact same type of baseless accusations at Iraq. They demanded Iraq prove they did not have WMD stockpiles or face the consequences. Since Iraq was unable to prove a negative (logical impossibility), the US invaded Iraq on Israel's behalf, took out the Iraqi government, installed a sham democracy, killed about a million people, tens of billions in oil went missing and the US military industrial complex made a killing off the war and the US oil companies run Iraq for profit. Afraid American taxpayers happily picked the multi-trillion dollar tab and gave the banks a sizable tip in 2008.

No wonder these people would like to convince the same afraid Americans that Iran is the exact same kind of threat requiring the same solution.

The US and Israel are using almost the exact same propaganda releases. It looks like all they've done is take the old propaganda regarding Iraq and did a search and replace of q's for n's. They obviously believe Americans are dumb enough to fall for the same scam twice and they are probably right. Few Americans have their own opinion. Why think for yourself, when the cable infotainment guy can do your thinking for you?

Yes Israel will soon face another war. It will either be started by them (sooner) or by Hezbollah (later). It will be a proxy war by Iran.

Israel isn't going to initiate a direct war with Iran because Iran has enough conventional weapons and rockets to lay waste to Israel. Iran isn't going to initiate a direct war with Israel, because Israel has enough nukes to lay waste to Iran. MAD will keep the peace.

I'm sure Israel would like to convince Americans to do their dirty work again like they did in Iraq. If the US did start a third war on a third front, the result would be economic suicide. Also, I suspect Iran has the ability to drop conventional weapons on American cities. If Americans or Israelis go nuclear, Iran will go chemical/biological.

What Iran would like to do is arm Hezbollah and other Israeli adversaries with weapons which can knock Israeli war planes out of the air at altitude. Israel's air superiority is the only thing stopping Hezbollah from starting a war now. But soon they will have the ability to neutralize Israel's airforce. Then its a ground war, and the fight will be much more even. Hezbollah proved they could stand toe to toe with the Israelis and give it as good as they get. What they couldn't stop was Israel from bombing Lebanese cities and civilian infrastructure. Hezbollah is busy building up stockpiles of missiles which can hit Tel Aviv. When the next war starts, if Israel bombs Lebanese cities, Hezbollah will bomb Israeli cities.

Most likely the next war will start soon after Hezbollah legally shoots down an Israeli warplane illegally in Lebanon's airspace, (A daily occurance), just to let Israel know they can no longer fly over Lebanon without risk. Israel will retaliate and then the war is on. If Israel ever nuked another country, I doubt even the US would continue to supply them with billions in arms and economic support each year leading to the beginning of the end for Israel.

By the way, I wish no ill will to Jews or Israelis in general. I don't care for people who commit atrocities, but most Jews and Israelis are ordinary people, who are just rying to live a decent life, work, raise a family, hang with their friends. The above is my honest opinion of Israel's future and I see nothing good resulting from Israel's ongoing war crimes and crimes against humanity. I would welcome to Canada any Israelis or Jews who are not criminals and would like to live in peace, rather than on the front line of a war zone. Our weather is cold, but we are warm and friendly in general. Discrimination based on race/religion/gender... is illegal here. If you come here, I'd just like to say "Welcome to Canada".
Last edited by earth_as_one; Aug 9th, 2010 at 08:22 PM..
 
talloola
No Party Affiliation
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+1
#4
I voted 'no' war because I am hoping there will be 'no' war, but it has been a while now, so
i'm sure one of them over there is gearing up to attack somebody over there, it just seems to
be the way it is, the palestinians do not want peace unless israel leaves, israel will be watching
everyone over there and will not hisitate to defend itself at any time, they have a strong military
and will not take any crap from anyone, and that does keep the others from being too aggressive against
them, but who knows what iran is doing, they are too quiet lately, putting the finishing touches
on their nuclear party cake I guess, maybe they will be the ones to do the dirty deed against israel,
but they have to worry about the ramifications from the u.s. if they do, so maybe it's good that
everyone is watching everyone, might keep everyone behaving themselves for awhile anyway.
 
Goober
Free Thinker
Avatar
#5
Quote: Originally Posted by earth_as_oneView Post

The US and Israel claim Iran is secretly building nuclear weapons. Yet they have no proof to back up their claims. Meanwhile the IAEA has been able to inspect any Iranian facility at any time and interview any Iranian for years now and they also have no evidence Iran is trying to build nukes. The IAEA has some minor issues regarding Iran's legal NPT compliant activities but nothing serious or consequential, unless minor book keeping errors and an empty building under construction count as nuclear weapons.
If Iran was secretly building nukes, then where are they? They've been refining uranium for at least seven years now. If they had secret nuclear facilities, that no one knows about, then they should have detonated their first nuke by now.
The US and Israel levelled the exact same type of baseless accusations at Iraq. They demanded Iraq prove they did not have WMD stockpiles or face the consequences. Since Iraq was unable to prove a negative (logical impossibility), the US invaded Iraq on Israel's behalf, took out the Iraqi government, installed a sham democracy, killed about a million people, tens of billions in oil went missing and the US military industrial complex made a killing off the war and the US oil companies run Iraq for profit. Afraid American taxpayers happily picked the multi-trillion dollar tab and gave the banks a sizable tip in 2008.
No wonder these people would like to convince the same afraid Americans that...

Quote has been trimmed, See full post: View Post
Should ahve ended that with I have jewish Friends - We know where Jews fit into you logic - Somewheres between unloading tha rail cars and the gas chambers - I will rebut the rest later. BE is still your new monicker. You Pal uber Goober.

Quote: Originally Posted by talloolaView Post

I voted 'no' war because I am hoping there will be 'no' war, but it has been a while now, so
i'm sure one of them over there is gearing up to attack somebody over there, it just seems to
be the way it is, the palestinians do not want peace unless israel leaves, israel will be watching
everyone over there and will not hisitate to defend itself at any time, they have a strong military
and will not take any crap from anyone, and that does keep the others from being too aggressive against
them, but who knows what iran is doing, they are too quiet lately, putting the finishing touches
on their nuclear party cake I guess, maybe they will be the ones to do the dirty deed against israel,
but they have to worry about the ramifications from the u.s. if they do, so maybe it's good that
everyone is watching everyone, might keep everyone behaving themselves for awhile anyway.

When they opened Pandora's box, just before they closed the lid tightly, hope was trapped inside.
 
Bar Sinister
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#6
There will be no US initiated war with Iran with Obama in power, and Israel is unlikely to act on its own. Obama already has two Bush initiated wars to end. He does not need another, and he does not have the sort of mentality to carry out wars of aggression. Until Iran actually carries out a nuclear test, nothing is going to happen.

As for Hezbollah, it is incapable of operating any sort of military operation beyond a minor terrorist campaign. Ditto for Syria.
 
MHz
#7
Think how much money Russia will make selling the S-series of air defense systems after a botched attempted air strike deep inside Iran. One would have to assume when you can track 100 hostiles (each system) then you are going to have that many missals plus re-loads. So it has been advertised that 3 systems have been delivered.

Goober, can you direct me to the poll question that asks "Does Iran have/want a nuclear weapon?" ?
 
petros
Avatar
#8
The rocket program is the real target. Space is high ground and you always want that advantage even if it means illegal air strikes to keep a foe from even making the first step.
 
wulfie68
No Party Affiliation
+1
#9
Quote: Originally Posted by Bar SinisterView Post

There will be no US initiated war with Iran with Obama in power, and Israel is unlikely to act on its own. Obama already has two Bush initiated wars to end. He does not need another, and he does not have the sort of mentality to carry out wars of aggression. Until Iran actually carries out a nuclear test, nothing is going to happen.

As for Hezbollah, it is incapable of operating any sort of military operation beyond a minor terrorist campaign. Ditto for Syria.

I agree Obama doesn't want to go to war with Iran and won't go easily, but I think Iran doing some type of nuclear test or some other confirmation of their program heading towards weaponry would force his hand.

Quite frankly, although I am not a huge fan of some of the injustices the Israelis commit on the Palestinians, I am frightened by the rhetoric that continually comes out of Tehran advocating the destruction of Israel. For all the criticism of the "big bad USA" I have not heard of their gov't wanting or supporting the destruction of other nations. We can argue that they have issues with certain regimes or types of regimes, but that doesn't equate to the type of genocide that the Iranian propaganda espouses. The same can be said for pretty much all the members of the Nuclear Weapons Club (with the possible exception of North Korea but they seem to want to use the fact that they have this technology as a means of blackmail for economic aid more than anything else).

As for a war, it wouldn't have to be a large scale ground operation: think back to the the First Gulf War aka Kuwaiti conflict in 1990 where ground troops were used to mop up after the missiles and airstrikes pretty much anhiliated the Iraqi military. The US/Israel/whomever doesn't have to stay and occupy, just get rid of the military (or at least the air defense capability of it) and flatten a few key installations/areas. Now we can say that this model didn't work too well in the long run (in Iraq) but there is a different social dynamic with the Iranians: they have a younger and more highly educated population (a lot of ex-pats chased away by the Imams who would love to go home and rebuild their country) and are more ripe for the type of change the US gov't hoped would occur in Iraq on its own in the 90s.

I truly hope nothing occurs but I don't know. The tensions over there seem so high and the Russians and Chinese seem not to care about getting involved and using their diplomatic weight, save for making a few political points wherever they can and at anyone's expense.
 
earth_as_one
Avatar
#10
Regarding Iranian leader's comments about "wiping Israel off the map":

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Quote:

Many news sources repeated the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting statement as though Ahmadinejad had demanded that "Israel must be wiped off the map",[5][6] an English idiom which means to "cause a place to stop existing",[7] or to "obliterate totally",[8] or "destroy completely".[9] News sources currently continue to repeat this claim.[10]
Ahmadinejad's phrase was " بايد از صفحه روزگار محو شود " according to the text published on the President's Office's website, and was a quote of Ayatollah Khomeini.[11]
The translation presented by IRNA has been challenged by Arash Norouzi, who says the statement "wiped off the map" was never made and that Ahmadinejad did not refer to the nation or land mass of Israel, but to the "regime occupying Jerusalem". Norouzi translated the original Persian to English, word for word, with the result, "the Imam said this regime occupying Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time."[12] Juan Cole, a University of Michigan Professor of Modern Middle East and South Asian History, agrees that Ahmadinejad's statement should be translated as, "the Imam said that this regime occupying Jerusalem (een rezhim-e eshghalgar-e qods) must [vanish from] the page of time (bayad az safheh-ye ruzgar mahv shavad).[13]
The Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) translates the phrase similarly, as "be eliminated from the pages of history."[14]
According to Cole, "Ahmadinejad did not say he was going...

Quote has been trimmed
While Ahmadinejad's statement isn't calling for Jewish extermination as widely and repeatedly misquoted, it isn't exactly friendly either.

Iran's position regarding Israel is to let the issues be settled by referendums. I recommend people read Ahmadinejad's statements for themselves, rather than relying on out of context mistranslations for an informed opinion.

President Ahmadinejad Delivers Remarks at Columbia University
CQ Transcripts Wire
Monday, September 24, 2007
--

IMO, Ahmadinejad is a politician who will say whatever he thinks will lead to him staying in power. I don't believe he is hostile to Jews, but he is hostile toward Zionism. I'd also like to point out that the Iran, unlike the US and Israel, has never started a war.
 
CDNBear
Avatar
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by earth_as_oneView Post

Regarding Iranian leader's comments about "wiping Israel off the map":

Here comes the white wash...

Quote:

While Ahmadinejad's statement isn't calling for Jewish extermination as widely and repeatedly misquoted, it isn't exactly friendly either.

Iran's position regarding Israel is to let the issues be settled by referendums. I recommend people read Ahmadinejad's statements for themselves, rather than relying on out of context mistranslations for an informed opinion.

And there it is...

Although I never did buy the whole media spin on this speech, I ended up formulating my own opinion, after reading it a couple times and trying to find the wiggle room to take it any other way.

But weighing that speech against Iran's refusal to acknowledge Israel, the heavy anti Jewish propaganda in Iran, and Ahmadinejad's condemnation of any Islamic state that negotiates anything but all out war with Israel, leads me to be a little more critical of his statements then you, obviously.

Quote:

Our dear Imam (referring to --) said that the occupying regime must be wiped off the map for great justice and this was a very wise statement. We cannot compromise over the issue of Palestine. Is it possible to create a new front in the heart of an old front. This would be a defeat and whoever accepts the legitimacy of this regime has in fact, signed the defeat of the Islamic world. Our dear Imam targeted the heart of the world oppressor in his struggle, meaning the occupying regime. I have no doubt that the new wave that has started in Palestine, and we witness it in the Islamic world too, will eliminate this disgraceful stain from the Islamic world.--

There really is no other way to take that, than a complete threat to wipe Israel off the map. Unless of course you're blinded to some pretty incontrovertible facts, which you've sufficiently proven to be so.

Quote:

IMO, Ahmadinejad is a politician who will say whatever he thinks will lead to him staying in power. I don't believe he is hostile to Jews, but he is hostile toward Zionism. I'd also like to point out that the Iran, unlike the US and Israel, has never started a war.

Neither did Germany, until they started one...
 
earth_as_one
Avatar
#12
Ahmadinejad's phrase was " بايد از صفحه روزگار محو شود "<br><br>It doesn't translate to "I want to wipe Israel off the map".&nbsp; It translates literally to " "the Imam said that this regime occupying Jerusalem must [vanish from] the page of time".&nbsp; When questioned about this fuurther Ahmadinejad claimed his intent was to call for an end to the Zionism or the Zionist regime in the same way other Iran leaders made the exact same statement regarding the Soviet Union, which was never interpreted in that case as a call to exterminate Russians.
I recommend people trying to figure this out, read the academic analysis in the wiki-link I provided.

Here is the link again:
--


If you read that analysis, apply a little critical thought, its become clear who is being honest and who is being deliberately manipulative.
 
CDNBear
Avatar
#13
I thought I was on your iggy list...

Quote: Originally Posted by earth_as_oneView Post

Ahmadinejad's phrase was " بايد از صفحه روزگار محو شود "<br><br>It doesn't translate to "I want to wipe Israel off the map".&nbsp; It translates literally to " "the Imam said that this regime occupying Jerusalem must [vanish from] the page of time".&nbsp; When questioned about this fuurther Ahmadinejad claimed his intent was to call for an end to the Zionism or the Zionist regime in the same way other Iran leaders made the exact same statement regarding the Soviet Union, which was never interpreted in that case as a call to exterminate Russians.

When Ahmadinejad is asked about Israel, he continuously calls Israel the Zionist state, thus referring to all Israeli's a Zionists.

Quote:

In a September 2008 interview with Juan Gonzalez and Amy Goodman on the radio and television program --, Ahmadinejad was asked: "If the Palestinian leaders agree to a two-state solution, could Iran live with an Israeli state?" and replied

If they [the Palestinians] want to keep the Zionists, they can stay ... Whatever the people decide, we will respect it. I mean, it's very much in correspondence with our proposal to allow Palestinian people to decide through free referendums.--

A fact I'm sure you would care to ignore.

Quote:

I recommend people trying to figure this out, read the academic analysis in the wiki-link I provided.

Here is the link again:
--

And if you're really trying to figure it out, contiue reading where eao stopped and see what Iranian translators say about the whitewashed version eao foists as fact...

Quote:

But translators in Tehran who work for the president's office and the foreign ministry disagree with them. All official translations of Mr. Ahmadinejad's statement, including a description of it on his website, refer to wiping Israel away. Sohrab Mahdavi, one of Iran’s most prominent translators, and Siamak Namazi, managing director of a Tehran consulting firm, who is bilingual, both say “wipe off” or “wipe away” is more accurate than "vanish" because the Persian verb is active and transitive.

Sad but true facts, some people will manipulate the thruth, to keep that silly ideology they love and cherish so much. Even if it means selling their credibility, to the lowest bidder.
Quote:

If you read that analysis, apply a little critical thought, its become clear who is being honest and who is being deliberately manipulative.

Absolutely correct.

I'm being honest, and you're being manipulative.

It's about time you conceded to something.
 
Goober
Free Thinker
Avatar
#14
Quote: Originally Posted by earth_as_oneView Post

Ahmadinejad's phrase was " بايد از صفحه روزگار محو شود "<br><br>It doesn't translate to "I want to wipe Israel off the map".&nbsp; It translates literally to " "the Imam said that this regime occupying Jerusalem must [vanish from] the page of time".&nbsp; When questioned about this fuurther Ahmadinejad claimed his intent was to call for an end to the Zionism or the Zionist regime in the same way other Iran leaders made the exact same statement regarding the Soviet Union, which was never interpreted in that case as a call to exterminate Russians.
I recommend people trying to figure this out, read the academic analysis in the wiki-link I provided.
Here is the link again:
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Israel - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
If you read that analysis, apply a little critical thought, its become clear who is being honest and who is being deliberately manipulative.

Quote has been trimmed, See full post: View Post

EAO
Do some checking on the net and you will find a number of powerful Govt Officials up to and including a variety of Preidents of Iran stating the call for the total destruction of isreal.
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Nuclear Weapons Can Solve the Israel ProblemRafsanjani said that Muslims must surround colonialism and force them [the colonialists] to see whether Israel is beneficial to them or not. If one day, he said, the world of Islam comes to possess the weapons currently in Israel's possession [meaning nuclear weapons] - on that day this method of global arrogance would come to a dead end. This, he said, is because the use of a nuclear bomb in Israel will leave nothing on the ground, whereas it will only damage the world of Islam.
 
CDNBear
#15
Quote: Originally Posted by GooberView Post

EAO
Do some checking on the net and you will find a number of powerful Govt Officials up to and including a variety of Preidents of Iran stating the call for the total destruction of isreal.
--

Nuclear Weapons Can Solve the Israel ProblemRafsanjani said that Muslims must surround colonialism and force them [the colonialists] to see whether Israel is beneficial to them or not. If one day, he said, the world of Islam comes to possess the weapons currently in Israel's possession [meaning nuclear weapons] - on that day this method of global arrogance would come to a dead end. This, he said, is because the use of a nuclear bomb in Israel will leave nothing on the ground, whereas it will only damage the world of Islam.

But Goober, that doesn't support eao's ideology, therefore it is true.
 
Goober
Free Thinker
Avatar
#16
Quote: Originally Posted by CDNBearView Post

But Goober, that doesn't support eao's ideology, therefore it is true.

Bear - EAO is not talented enough to have an ideology - Gotta have the smarts ya know - and he Don't as they say back home where i am from - He Jes don't have it. Smarts that is. Easily lead. Lacking character in my humble opinion

Now to be one sided and ignore facts, truth, that is the category that EAO falls into - Lemmings - I wonder if Lemmings are Halal?
 
CDNBear
#17
Quote: Originally Posted by GooberView Post

Now to be one sided and ignore facts, truth, that is the category that EAO falls into - Lemmings - I wonder if Lemmings are Halal?

Only when led to slaughter properly...


 
petros
+1
#18
"Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: OK, we may have a few gays but we still hate Israel"
 
CDNBear
Avatar
#19
Quote: Originally Posted by petrosView Post

"Mahmoud Ahmadabad: OK, we may have a few gays but we still hate Israel"

Let's just clear something up, so eao doesn't have to correct it later...

Ahmadinejad doesn't hate Israel, he hates Zion.

Where is Zion you ask?


 
petros
Avatar
+2
#20  Top Rated Post
It's a park on the Mount of Olives? Old Jews wanting to sit in a park? Next thing you know they'll want to keep with tradition and go bob around in the Dead Sea and burn off their piles from sitting all day.
 
earth_as_one
Avatar
#21
Quote: Originally Posted by petrosView Post

"Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: OK, we may have a few gays but we still hate Israel"

Ahmadinejad is a political opportunist. He has to get re-elected (or at least appear to get re-elected) in Iran, not the US or Canada. I take his comments in that context.
 
CDNBear
Avatar
#22
Quote: Originally Posted by earth_as_oneView Post

Ahmadinejad is a political opportunist. He has to get re-elected (or at least appear to get re-elected) in Iran, not the US or Canada. I take his comments in that context.

So do I.

Which is why your opinion is flawed.

 
earth_as_one
Avatar
#23
I'd say that Pakistan falling into the hands of Islamic extremists is a far more likely scenario which would lead to Israel being threatened by nuclear weapons.

So far Iran has indicated they aren't interested in acquiring nukes and they've cooperated with the IAEA, despite sanctions imposed on Iran. Personally I think Iran seeks a break out capability. That is come as close as they can to having nuclear weapons and still remain compliant with the NPT. In the event that Iran is threatened or attacked with nuclear weapons, they could start building nukes within a relatively short period of time.

Currently Iran has enrichment capability, but the centrifuges are configured to produce LEU, suitable for power generation, but not nuclear weapons. LEU can be refined into HEU, suitable for nuclear weapon components, by reconfiguring their centrifuges, which isn't easy. It means taking them apart and reassmbling them in a different configuration and probably a few adjustments and fine tuning. That reconfiguration would take a few weeks and would be noticed by IAEA inspectors.
 
CDNBear
Avatar
#24
Quote: Originally Posted by earth_as_oneView Post

I'd say that Pakistan falling into the hands of Islamic extremists is a far more likely scenario which would lead to Israel being threatened by nuclear weapons.

I'd say that an extreme directional shift in the topic of the conversation wouldn't hide the errors in judgment and manipulation of facts that you just expressed.

Quote:

So far Iran has indicated they aren't interested in acquiring nukes and they've cooperated with the IAEA, despite sanctions imposed on Iran. Personally I think Iran seeks a break out capability. That is come as close as they can to having nuclear weapons and still remain compliant with the NPT. In the event that Iran is threatened or attacked with nuclear weapons, they could start building nukes within a relatively short period of time.

Which kinda makes allowing a loon like Ahmadinejad have any nuclear material a little dangerous non?

You're not helping your case.

And I'm all for Iran having nuclear energy. lol...
Quote:

Currently Iran has enrichment capability, but the centrifuges are configured to produce LEU, suitable for power generation, but not nuclear weapons. LEU can be refined into HEU, suitable for nuclear weapon components, by reconfiguring their centrifuges, which isn't easy. It means taking them apart and reassmbling them in a different configuration and probably a few adjustments and fine tuning. That reconfiguration would take a few weeks and would be noticed by IAEA inspectors.

Just curious, how hard would it be to expel them? How long are they going to be there? Are they bullet proof?
 
Goober
Free Thinker
Avatar
+1
#25
Quote: Originally Posted by earth_as_oneView Post

The US and Israel claim Iran is secretly building nuclear weapons. Yet they have no proof to back up their claims. Meanwhile the IAEA has been able to inspect any Iranian facility at any time and interview any Iranian for years now and they also have no evidence Iran is trying to build nukes. The IAEA has some minor issues regarding Iran's legal NPT compliant activities but nothing serious or consequential, unless minor book keeping errors and an empty building under construction count as nuclear weapons.
If Iran was secretly building nukes, then where are they? They've been refining uranium for at least seven years now. If they had secret nuclear facilities, that no one knows about, then they should have detonated their first nuke by now.
The US and Israel levelled the exact same type of baseless accusations at Iraq. They demanded Iraq prove they did not have WMD stockpiles or face the consequences. Since Iraq was unable to prove a negative (logical impossibility), the US invaded Iraq on Israel's behalf, took out the Iraqi government, installed a sham democracy, killed about a million people, tens of billions in oil went missing and the US military industrial complex made a killing off the war and the US oil companies run Iraq for profit. Afraid American taxpayers happily picked the multi-trillion dollar tab and gave the banks a sizable tip in 2008.
No wonder these people would like to convince the same afraid Americans that...

Quote has been trimmed, See full post: View Post

EAO
"Today I'm handing out lollipops and ass-whoopins and right now, I'm all out of lollipops.”





Quote: Originally Posted by GooberView Post

EAO
"Today I'm handing out lollipops and ass-whoopins and right now, I'm all out of lollipops.”



Iran is acting in Defiance of the UN Security Council's Resolutions - Continued defiance and failure to comply can result in any and all measures up to and including War. And No - The US does not need the UN to approve it - Any country has the right to protect itself from threats. And yes that also includes Iran.

--
VIENNA — Iran has activated equipment to enrich uranium more efficiently in a move that defies the U.N. Security Council, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Monday.

The Vienna-based nuclear watchdog said Iran has started using a second set of 164 centrifuges linked in a cascade, or string of machines, to enrich uranium to up to 20 percent at its Natanz pilot fuel enrichment plant. Another cascade there has been producing uranium enriched to near 20 percent since February.

If enriched to around 95 percent, uranium can be used in building a nuclear bomb. At 20 percent, it can be turned into weapons-grade material much more quickly than less-enriched uranium.


Tehran denies it has such aims and says its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes only. But some in the international community — the United States and its allies — aren't convinced.

IAEA spokeswoman Gill Tudor said that when agency inspectors visited the facility on July 17, "Iran was feeding nuclear material to the two interconnected 164-machine centrifuge cascades."

This, she added, was "contrary to U.N. Security Council resolutions affirming that Iran should suspend all enrichment related activities."

The U.N. Security Council imposed a fourth round of sanctions on Iran in June because of its refusal to halt uranium enrichment. Tougher unilateral U.S. and European Union sanctions followed in July.

Iran had informed the IAEA in March of its intentions to link the two cascades, Tudor said.

The move upgrades the efficiency of production by recycling the waste now being left by the first cascade to squeeze out more enriched uranium at near 20-percent levels, diplomats said in May when they disclosed to The Associated Press that Iranian technicians had assembled the second 164-centrifuge cascade and appeared ready to activate it.

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The UN's nuclear watchdog group, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has for the first time expressed fears that Iran may be trying to develop a nuclear warhead.

A report by the group, partially leaked late on Thursday, confirmed that Tehran has produced a small amount of uranium enriched to a higher purity than previously capable, and voiced concern that it may move towards enriching uranium at still higher levels.

The agency said the amount of low-enriched uranium set aside for higher enrichment - the bulk of its stockpile - seemed far in excess of possible civilian needs.

Last but critical point.
Iran's resistance to IAEA investigation efforts "give rise to concerns about possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear program", the report said.
 
ironsides
No Party Affiliation
Avatar
#26
Iran will not be allowed the capability to make nuclear bombs, but what they produce can be traded for weapons grade uranium, and that is where a war or attack against them will originate from.
 
earth_as_one
Avatar
+1
#27
Goober, if you have proof that Iran is building a nuke, I suggest you send your evidence to the IAEA, since you obviously know something they don't. I'm sure they'll take you seriously. Just tell them you are an expert in nuclear physics and your links. I'm sure they'll be as impressed as I am.

Iran has some control over the inspections and who comes in their country. If IAEA officials abuse their position, lie or make misleading statements, Iran has every right to ask for a more impartial replacement.

Quote:

...Iran has banned two UN inspectors from visiting its nuclear facilities because it claims they filed false information on the country's controversial nuclear programme – a move seen as retaliation for the imposition of new sanctions.Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran's atomic energy agency, said the unnamed inspectors had prematurely published a report he described as "untruthful", according to reports in state media today.
Iran has the right to ban UN personnel under the country's "safeguards agreement" with the International Atomic Energy Agency and has done so in the past. Salehi also stressed Iran's commitment to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, which governs nuclear issues.
Yet observers and diplomats said there was no doubt the decision reflected anger over the sanctions imposed by the UN security council and that more retaliatory action was likely. Tehran has called UN resolution 1929 illegal and threatened action to protect its interests.
Iran had complained to the UN about a report issued at the end of last month, which said Tehran was preparing extra equipment to enrich uranium to higher levels and that it had stockpiled nuclear material. The IAEA report also showed that Iran was continuing with higher-level enrichment, failing to answer questions about possible military dimensions to its nuclear work, and failing to address concerns about undisclosed...

Quote has been trimmed
Iran has enriched microscopic quantities of 20% enriched uranium. 20% is the NPT legally allowed limit. Their stated purpose for enriching uranium to the 20% NPT limit is medical research and medical isotope production, which is allowed by the NPT.

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Requirements for medical isotope producing reactors
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The difference between medical research and nuclear weapon research is quantity and quality. Medical research only requires extremely small amounts of HEU, a tiny fraction of what would be needed to construct a nuclear weapon. From the above links, it sounds like the entire world's supply of medical isotopes and all the accumulated waste products from all the medical isotope producing reactors over 50 years combined could be processed into the components required to produce a single nuclear weapon.

As long as Iran's 20% HEU work remains limited in quality/quantity and remains closely supervised, it remains NPT compliant and a non-threat.

I would be concerned if Iran started stockpiling significant amounts of 20% EU, since it would cut the processing time to produce 90% HEU (bomb quality) in half. But its speculative to write a report which makes this possible purpose sound like a proven fact. Currently Iran has only produced microscopic quantities of 20% EU, not even close to the amount required to run a medical research reactor, let alone be further refined to produce a nuclear weapon. If and when they get their medical isotope producing reactor going, Iran would never have a valid reason to keep enough 20% EU on hand to make a bomb with further enrichment.

Speculation about where this program could lead is just that... speculation. A report which makes speculation sound like fact qualifies at a minimum as misleading if not a deliberate lie.

I see more than one possibility regarding Iran's attempts to refine microscopic amounts of 20% EU.

Sure Iran could be planning to build nukes with it. I'm not an expert in nuclear physics like Goober, so please correct me if I'm wrong Goober. I don't think its possible to build a nuke with 20% EU, let alone using only microscopic quantities of 20% EU. Could you post a link which shows that its possible to build a nuclear bomb using microscopic amounts of 20% EU? Don't forget to cc the IAEA.

Its also possible Iran's enemies have infiltrated the ranks of the IAEA in attempt to turn the it into another UNSCOM.

Remember this news story?
" the UNSCOM spying reported by the papers was accepted as fact by other outlets, and even defended; Experts say it is naive to believe that the United States and other governments would not have used the opportunity presented by the U.N. commission to spy on a country that provoked the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and that has continued to tangle with U.S. and British forces," USA Today reported (3/3/99).
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A very good chance Iran was justified tossing those two IAEA inspectors out of their country. Meanwhile the other IAEA inspectors in Iran have continued their inspections unimpeded. Or are you saying that these were the only 2 IAEA inspectors in Iran and that they have not yet been replaced. Talk about your cutbacks.

Then again it could be Iran playing games in response to NPT violating sanctions and other activities by their adversaries.

Its also possible that Iran is sending a hint that if their adversaries continue to violate the NPT by attempting to thwart Iran's NPT guaranteed right to possess peaceful nuclear technology that they'll end the inspections. I guess Iran has to judge if allowing the IAEA into Iran continues to serve any purpose... The inspections which have gone on for years now and found nothing except evidence supporting Iran's peaceful nuclear program, have not resulted in lifting of sanctions and other punitive measure. where's Iran's incentive to allow the inspections? If Iran stops the inspections what is the US going to do? Impose economic sanctions???

In other words, the US has no carrot on the end of their stick, all they have is a stick...

Like I said... Show some concrete evidence that Iran is building nukes, because you obviously know something no one else does.

All I see is a dispute, speculation and an allegedly misleading report, not proof of nukes or even an intention to make nukes.

Regarding Iran's ability to hide a nuclear weapon production facility:
Facilities required to enrich enough uranium to the required quality to build nuclear weapon components would be about the size of a paper mill or an oil refinery. It would employ thousands of highly trained people, consume and produce megawatts of energy and leak easily detected by-products into the air and/or water. In other words, it would be pretty difficult to hide, but not impossible. ( Israel did just that in the 1960's, but unlike Iran, Israel had no IAEA inspectors scouring the country with sophisticated monitoring equipment)

The IAEA has been all over Iran and found nothing to support allegations that Iran is building nukes. It appears the best Iran's adversaries have been able to do so far is get a few of their people on the inspection teams to write an allegedly false or misleading report, so the news can spin nothing to sound like something and convince the gullible that "absence of proof" is "proof of existance". That's pathetic. I hope this isn't an indication that the US and other nations will eventually pervert the IAEA like they did with UNSCOM.

Speaking of UNSCOM, how is the search for Iraq's WMD stockpiles going? Remember how Iraq's tossing out the UNSCOM weapon inspectors proved Iran was really accumulating WMD stockpiles. You'll have to remind me again. What happened to the stockpiles our news told us Iraq possessed?
Last edited by earth_as_one; Aug 11th, 2010 at 02:33 AM..
 
Goober
Free Thinker
Avatar
#28
Quote: Originally Posted by earth_as_oneView Post

Goober, if you have proof that Iran is building a nuke, I suggest you send your evidence to the IAEA, since you obviously know something they don't. I'm sure they'll take you seriously. Just tell them you are an expert in nuclear physics and your links. I'm sure they'll be as impressed as I am.
Iran has some control over the inspections and who comes in their country. If IAEA officials abuse their position, lie or make misleading statements, Iran has every right to ask for a more impartial replacement.
Iran has enriched microscopic quantities of 20% enriched uranium. 20% is the NPT legally allowed limit. Their stated purpose for enriching uranium to the 20% NPT limit is medical research and medical isotope production, which is allowed by the NPT.
Deconstructing the meaning of Iran's 20 percent uranium enrichment | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Requirements for medical isotope producing reactors
The potential dangers in medical isotope production | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Quote has been trimmed, See full post: View Post
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2010/02/201021972517403800.htmlEAO

Do I have proof - Do not waste space on a dumb question like that.
Prove that the Inspectors Lied or were untruthful - again read the links - Again you condemn what for years you have used to base your posts on - Now they are useless - Really.
Point - The proof is in the pudding as they say - When the IAEA states t as they did below - Do not twist it - Does not work out well. Iran states the reports were untruthfiul - The report is approved by the IAEA - Got that - It was approved for publishing.

You have quoted the IAEA as the Holy Fukin Grail time and again - Now they publish facts that do not agree with your view. What a surprise that is. Now the IAEA is another enemy that is controlled by the US & The Infamous but World Renowned Jewish Cabal.

Read the next 4 paras - Check the full link.


--

...Iran has banned two UN inspectors from visiting its nuclear facilities because it claims they filed false information on the country's controversial nuclear programme – a move seen as retaliation for the imposition of new sanctions.Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran's atomic energy agency, said the unnamed inspectors had prematurely published a report he described as "untruthful", according to reports in state media today.

Iran has the right to ban UN personnel under the country's "safeguards agreement" with the International Atomic Energy Agency and has done so in the past. Salehi also stressed Iran's commitment to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, which governs nuclear issues.

Yet observers and diplomats said there was no doubt the decision reflected anger over the sanctions imposed by the UN security council and that more retaliatory action was likely. Tehran has called UN resolution 1929 illegal and threatened action to protect its interests.

Iran had complained to the UN about a report issued at the end of last month, which said Tehran was preparing extra equipment to enrich uranium to higher levels and that it had stockpiled nuclear material. The IAEA report also showed that Iran was continuing with higher-level enrichment, failing to answer questions about possible military dimensions to its nuclear work, and failing to address concerns about undisclosed...
--

Next - Excess quantities of 20% enriched - excess for known civilian purposes - Why????????


Fact - to bring Urnaium up to the 90 or 95 % purity - suitable for a bomb - Most of the energy and time is spent enriching it to the 20% level - So why do they need so much at 20% -

What are the quantities that Iran has processed to 20 % - you constanly and repeatedly state - Microscopic - Put a number to it Donkey - Give a number

What quantity to make 2 small nukes - How much 20 % required to build 2 Hiroshima type bombs - or 8 really small ones - Isreal is a very very small country.

And Iraq and WMD - Most of the world believed Saddam had WMD - Christ - even his Generals thought so - Why did he keep giving this impression - Retain power - Scared of Iran - and a really dumb move his constantly hindering the inspectors - All pointed in that direction - and yes they were wrong -

As Gerry H would state - The Iraq MD is a strawman - 2 different situations - When France and other besides the US state that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapons capability - Perhaps Iran should listen - But they have been playing the US- Europe for years -
They are doing the same thing - using the same tactics as Sadamm - yet the proof is increasing -

Quote: Originally Posted by GooberView Post

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2010/02/201021972517403800.htmlEAO

Do I have proof - Do not waste space on a dumb question like that.
Prove that the Inspectors Lied or were untruthful - again read the links - Again you condemn what for years you have used to base your posts on - Now they are useless - Really.
Point - The proof is in the pudding as they say - When the IAEA states t as they did below - Do not twist it - Does not work out well. Iran states the reports were untruthfiul - The report is approved by the IAEA - Got that - It was approved for publishing.

You have quoted the IAEA as the Holy Fukin Grail time and again - Now they publish facts that do not agree with your view. What a surprise that is. Now the IAEA is another enemy that is controlled by the US & The Infamous but World Renowned Jewish Cabal.

Read the next 4 paras - Check the full link.


--

...Iran has banned two UN inspectors from visiting its nuclear facilities because it claims they filed false information on the country's controversial nuclear programme – a move seen as retaliation for the imposition of new sanctions.Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran's atomic energy agency, said the unnamed inspectors had prematurely published a report he described as "untruthful", according to reports in state media today.

Iran has the right to ban UN personnel under the country's "safeguards agreement" with the International Atomic Energy Agency and has done so in the past. Salehi also stressed Iran's commitment to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, which governs nuclear issues.

Yet observers and diplomats said there was no doubt the decision reflected anger over the sanctions imposed by the UN security council and that more retaliatory action was likely. Tehran has called UN resolution 1929 illegal and threatened action to protect its interests.

Iran had complained to the UN about a report issued at the end of last month, which said Tehran was preparing extra equipment to enrich uranium to higher levels and that it had stockpiled nuclear material. The IAEA report also showed that Iran was continuing with higher-level enrichment, failing to answer questions about possible military dimensions to its nuclear work, and failing to address concerns about undisclosed...
--

Next - Excess quantities of 20% enriched - excess for known civilian purposes - Why????????


Fact - to bring Urnaium up to the 90 or 95 % purity - suitable for a bomb - Most of the energy and time is spent enriching it to the 20% level - So why do they need so much at 20% -

What are the quantities that Iran has processed to 20 % - you constanly and repeatedly state - Microscopic - Put a number to it Donkey - Give a number

What quantity to make 2 small nukes - How much 20 % required to build 2 Hiroshima type bombs - or 8 really small ones - Isreal is a very very small country.

And Iraq and WMD - Most of the world believed Saddam had WMD - Christ - even his Generals thought so - Why did he keep giving this impression - Retain power - Scared of Iran - and a really dumb move his constantly hindering the inspectors - All pointed in that direction - and yes they were wrong -

As Gerry H would state - The Iraq MD is a strawman - 2 different situations - When France and other besides the US state that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapons capability - Perhaps Iran should listen - But they have been playing the US- Europe for years -
They are doing the same thing - using the same tactics as Sadamm - yet the proof is increasing -

As I stated in the thread - War is coming - Unless Iran makes a verifiable agreement regarding nuclear enrichment - inspections - completely verifiable Some articles - about Iran and about Israel - and some maps - Bomb Capabilities

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US Bunker Busting Bombs & News Reports

YouTube - BLU-109 Penetratorampx202camplrm



YouTube - BLU-109 Bunker Buster Testampx202camplrm



YouTube - Pentagon Speeds up Bunker Buster Production 12th Octampx202camplrm



YouTube - Wilkerson We can bomb Iran for 70 days around the clockampx202camplrm



Map of Iranian Nuclear Sites

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earth_as_one
Avatar
#29
The location of Iran's nuclear sites aren't secrets. Here take a tour of one.
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Until Iran violates the NPT, they remain compliant. So far, they have respected ithe NPT's limitations as far as what's known publicly. If the US or anyone else ever has proof Iran violated the NPT, we would know about it pretty quick.

We can both speculate about Iran's intentions. I suspect Iran seeks breakout capability only. As close as possible to acquiring nukes without violating the NPT. Which is legal.

I suspect that if Iran ever did decide to illegally cross that threshold, it'd be a reaction to a hostile event.
Last edited by earth_as_one; Aug 11th, 2010 at 10:23 PM..
 
earth_as_one
Avatar
+1
#30
The position of the US and the IAEA agents who wrote the allegedly biased report is that having the potential to do something is the same as doing it.

An analogy would be like arresting people for speeding because they own cars which could exceed the speed limit. Continuing with the analogy, IAEA inspections would be like having a traffic cop sitting in the passenger seat. Iran has the technology and resources to exceed NPT limitations, but not without being noticed by the IAEA.

The fact remains, Iran has only enriched microscopic quantities of uranium to 20% in full compliance with the requirements of the NPT and under the supervision of the IAEA. The fact that they have a lot of material which could be enriched to 20%, doesn't mean that it will be enriched to 20%.

I'll be concerned when Iran actually violates the NPT or kicks the IAEA inspectors out of the country. Until then I'm confident that the IAEA is watching Iran and that their program is peaceful.

That's why I think imposing stiff sanctions to punish Iran for their legal NPT compliant enrichment activities is a bad idea. The US and other nations can refuse to trade with Iran without giving any justification. But punishing Iran for their NPT compliant enrichment activities gives Iran a good reason to end the IAEA inspections and unsign themselves from the voluntary NPT protocols. Then we would find ourselves in a situation where we have no idea what the Iranians are doing, and unable to prove whether or not Iran has violated the required parts of the NPT until they test a nuke.

As it is right now, Iranian scientists can't even scratch their arses, without the IAEA noticing. After seven years of enrichment activity, Iran still appears to be completely compliant with the terms and the spirit of the NPT. I am also skeptical about Iran's motives for acquiring peaceful nuclear technology. But until they actually violate the NPT or interferes with IAEA inspections, the IAEA should maintain a neutral cooperative relationship with Iran. Tossing two inspectors out of Iran because they wrote a report Iran didn't like, could be interference. But what from I've read about it, it sounds like Iran's actions were justified and required. I wouldn't want the IAEA to become a front for US and Western spy operations. The IAEA must play the role of impartial referee. Iran must challenge any attempt by the US and other nations to infiltrate the IAEA inspection teams with spies, otherwise the system collapses and Iran would have no choice but to toss the IAEA inspectors out for national security reasons.

BTW, that's the same reason why Iraq tossed out UNSCOM. By 1998, UNSCOM more or less knew Iraq did not possess a WMD capability, but because they were working for the US and other nations hostile to Iraq, they refused to admit it. Iraq was not cooperative with UNSCOM initially, but by 1996, UNSCOM had more or less found everything Iraq was attempting to hide and destroyed it. By 1996, Iraq had nothing left to hide, so they gave UNSCOM their full cooperation. From 1996 until 1998, UNSCOM, searched Iraq with Iraq's full cooperation and found nothing. Sure a scientist here or their tried to hide their research notes (in violation of Iraqi laws to reveal everything to UNSCOM). Inspectors would occasionally show up at a facility unannounced and encounter locked doors, because the place was closed for holidays. I am aware of all the attempts by the US to portray these minor issues as proof Iraq was not cooperating or hiding something. By the end of 1998, UNSCOM had effectively stopped looking for Iraqi WMDs, because they knew they didn't exist. Instead they began abusing their inspection rights to harass Iraq's leaders, spy on Iraq's legal conventional defense systems and identify Iraq's Command, Communication and Control systems. When Iraq reacted to these abuse by stopping their cooperation with UNSCOM, the US and the UK claimed this as proof Iraq was hiding something. Very soon afterward, the US and UK used the information illegally collected by their UNSCOM spies to bomb Iran in Operation Desert Fox.

I doubt Iran would continue to cooperate with the IAEA if they became just like UNSCOM. They'd toss them out, as is their right. Then we'd have a serious problem and the bulk of the blame would be on the US and other nations for corrupting the IAEA.
Last edited by earth_as_one; Aug 12th, 2010 at 09:53 AM..
 

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