Before Thursday, anybody saying that Britain will soon have a Liberal government would have probably been sent to Broadmoor and put in a padded cell.
But since Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, put in a stunning performance on Thursday in Britain's first ever televised Leaders' Debate, which focused on domestic affairs, a Liberal Democrat government is looking far likely now.
A truly astonishing poll, conducted by the Mail on Sunday, has put the Liberals in the lead for the first time since 1906, the year that a Liberal government swept to power in a landslide under Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman.
The poll puts the Liberal Democrats on 32%, the Tories on 31% and Labour on 28%. The Liberal Democrats were formed in 1988 after the merger of the Liberals and the Social Democrat Party (SDP). The two parties operated as the Alliance between 1981 and 1988.
However, because of the complexities of Britain's electoral system, if the result of that poll was repeated in the General Election on 6th May, it would be LABOUR who get the most seats in the House of Commons.
Labour would have 267 MPs, with 230 Tories and 121 Lib Dems.
If that happened, a hung parliament would result. This is because 650 MPs are to sit in the Commons, so a party would need at least 326 seats (over half), to win the election outright.
If that happened, the most likely outcome would be a Lib-Lab coalition, giving them a clear Commons majority with a combined total of 388 MPs.
Brown would probably remain as Prime Minister, but Nick Clegg could be made Home Secretary, with the Liberals' respected economics spokesman Vince Cable becoming Chancellor.
The most popular choice of government for the British people is a Labour-Liberal coalition, with 27% of people wanting it. 22% want a Tory government, 20% a Tory-Liberal coalition, and just 15% want a Labour government.
Most polls conducted soon after Thursday's historic TV debate held in Manchester showed that Nick Clegg emerged the clear winner - one poll showed that a whopping 51% of people thought he performed the best of the three party leaders.
54% of people rated Clegg as the most honest during the debate, with 18% rating Brown as the most honest and just 16% rating Tory leader Cameron as the most honest.
On the other hand, Brown was rated as "tired" (during the debate) by 67%, whereas just 1% thought the same of Clegg.
One reason for Clegg's sudden popularity is that, as the leader of very much the smallest of Britain's three main parties, he is almost unknown to the British public and, during the televised PM's Questions in the Commons every Wednesday, he is allowed to ask just two questions to the PM. So that first ever British leaders' debate has allowed the British people to get a good look at him.
However, there are two more televised debates during this election campaign, and the chink in the Liberals' armour may start to show during the next one, to be held this Thursday somewhere in England's south west, probably in Bristol, Plymouth or Truro.
That debate focuses on foreign affairs, and the Liberals are hugely pro-EU and pro-Euro, whereas the British people vastly anti-EU and anti-Euro. A poll has also shown that just 31% of the British people agree with Clegg's desire for more integration with the EU.
The most likely scenario is that after the third debate, on Thursday 29th April, the Tories will take a commanding lead and David Cameron will be crowned Britain's new Prime Minister.
And the last time Britain had a Lib-Lab coalition, 1977-1978, it collapsed, paving the way for the Tories and Margaret Thatcher to come to power.
Brown fails to rule out coalition with Clegg as historic poll puts Lib Dems IN FRONT for first time in 104 years
By Simon Walters, Mail on Sunday Political Editor and David Rose
18th April 2010
Daily Mail
GENERAL ELECTION 2010
Alistair Stewart hosted and refereed Thursday night's historic televised Leaders' Debate, the first held in Britain, which was watched by 10 million people. Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg emerged the clear winner, which has put him surprisingly ahead in the polls
Gordon Brown today repeatedly refused to rule out the possibility of a coalition with the Liberal Democrats as Nick Clegg's party dramatically seized the lead in the Election campaign.
A Mail on Sunday poll reveals Mr Clegg’s sparkling performance in last week's TV debate between the three party leaders has triggered a large rise in support for his party.
It has boosted Mr Brown’s hopes of clinging to power by forming a coalition government with the Lib Dems – in return for a seat at the Cabinet table for Mr Clegg.
Today the Prime Minister fuelled speculation of a coalition by repeatedly refusing to dismiss such a scenario in an interview with the BBC's Andrew Marr.
He also admitted he had 'lost' the first three-way debate last Thursday and that Mr Clegg's impressive performance had 'thrown the campaign wide open'.
He said: 'I think it's energised the campaign. It's thrown the campaign wide, wide open.
'People thought it was a closed book to start with. I lost on presentation. I lost on style. Maybe I lost on smiling.
'Some may think I'm a sort of a tough headteacher, I don't know.
On the soapbox: Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg speaks to young people in a park in London this afternoon. The Lib Dems overtook their rivals for the first time to lead an opinion poll, increasing the prospect of a hung parliament
'But I've learned at the end of the debate, substance will come through.'
The Prime minister refused to be drawn on the possibilty of a coalition with the Liberal Democrats but his clear refusal to rule it out will fuel speculation he is banking on a surge in the Lib Dem vote to keep him in office.
He would only say: 'We have got to get our policies across to the country. After the election, there is plenty of time to talk about what happens'
Mr Brown also insisted the election campaign was not 'a sprint'.
'It's a long campaign. We haven't debated the economy yet in any substantial way.'
Henry Campbell-Bannerman was the last time a Liberal won the British general election - in 1906
And he added: 'This isn't an X-Factor talent show.'
In the BBC interview, Mr Brown also rejected Tory plans for a cap on immigration, insisting the 'tough' points-based system for admitting skilled migrants was a better way of controlling the numbers and was working.
Asked if 160,000 coming in each year was acceptable, he said: 'It's going to be lower. It's already lower this year. It's going to be a lot lower because the number of students coming in is going to be reduced in the coming year and the points system is starting to have a big effect.'
Mr Brown spoke after today's BPIX poll for The Mail on Sunday shows that support for the Lib Dems has soared to 32 per cent, one point ahead of the Conservatives on 31, with Labour trailing third at 28.
The result of the poll – the most authoritative conducted since the televised debate – represents an unprecedented 30 per cent rise in the Lib Dems’ ratings in a week.
And it is the first-ever opinion survey that has shown the Liberal Democrats, or their predecessors the Liberals, in first place.
The short-lived SDP-Lib Dem Alliance was briefly ahead in the Eighties.
But you have to go back to 1906, before opinion polls or television existed, for the last time the Liberals had the most popular support.
They won a landslide Election under Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman and polled nearly 50 per cent of all votes.
Polling experts say it is possible the Liberal Democrat lead is a blip that could fade before the Election.
But the survey provides further evidence that Britain may be heading for a hung parliament and a Lib-Lab pact that could yet see Mr Brown stay on in No10.
Labour Ministers can barely hide their glee at how the boost in Mr Clegg’s ratings has thrown them a lifeline.
Mr Cameron’s team are in despair at the way it threatens to rob them of what just a few months ago seemed a near-certain triumph.
A Cameron victory depends on him winning dozens of Lib Dem seats. The Clegg bounce makes that far less likely.
Bizarrely, if the BPIX findings are repeated on polling day on May 6, the vagaries of Britain’s first-past-the-post voting system mean Labour would be the ‘winner’ – albeit well short of outright victory.
Labour would have 267 MPs, with 230 Tories and 121 Lib Dems. It would lead to a frantic few days of political horsetrading, with the most likely outcome a Lib-Lab deal giving them a clear Commons majority with a combined total of 388 MPs.
Mr Clegg’s reward for propping up Labour would probably be a Cabinet post, with another for fellow Lib Dem Vince Cable, possibly as Chancellor.
BPIX pollster Professor Paul Whiteley said: ‘This is the Nick Clegg wow factor. It could be a temporary phenomenon but it is hugely important and shows the television debate was a game-changer.
CLICK TO ENLARGE
‘Recent years have seen people’s attachments to political parties chipped away bit by bit. We may now have reached the tipping point where the old tribal loyalties have gone. People are prepared to shop around for the party that offers them the best deal just as they shop around for consumer goods.’
The BPIX survey, in which 2,149 people were interviewed online, is the first full-scale poll to be carried out after the full impact of the televised debate became clear.
It was launched at midday on Friday, by which time newspapers, TV, radio and the internet had all reported Mr Clegg’s coup.
Another poll published yesterday, which put the Lib Dems in second place, began early on Friday morning, before some voters were aware of Mr Clegg’s performance.
Enlarge
He is seen as more honest, intelligent, slick and relaxed. Even more remarkably, nearly two in three say he is charismatic, compared to one in five for Tory golden boy Mr Cameron and one in 20 for Mr Brown.
Nearly 80 per cent say Old Etonian Mr Cameron is ‘posh’ against a mere four per cent for Mr Clegg, even though he went to the elite private Westminster School and his father is a banker who is even wealthier than Mr Cameron’s stockbroker father.
Asked what outcome they would prefer in the Election, the most popular option is a Brown-Clegg coalition.
That reverses the general view that the Lib-Lab pact in the Seventies was a shambles that paved the way for Margaret Thatcher’s rise to power.
Yet the second most favoured result is the compete opposite – a large Tory victory. A Cameron-Clegg alliance is third choice, and least popular a narrow win by either Tories or Labour.
The poll shows a large majority support Mr Clegg’s pledge to scrap income tax on the first £10,000 of earnings and his ‘mansion tax’ on homes worth more than £2million.
He is also backed over his promise to scrap Britain’s nuclear deterrent and to limit relief on pensions to the basic tax rate.
But his plan for an eco tax on airline flights and his commitment to closer ties with the EU are opposed.
Tory chiefs are pinning their hopes on a better showing by Mr Cameron in Thursday’s second TV debate.
His allies deny they are in a panic. But MPs pointed out that Mr Cameron was warned that allowing Mr Clegg to take part in the debates, instead of insisting on a Cameron versus Brown head-to-head clash, was a mistake.
Enlarge
Even if Mr Cameron loses the Election, he is likely to survive as leader – for the time being. His allies would argue that if, as before, a Lib-Lab government ended in chaos, there could be another Election in less than a year.
Mr Cameron’s position is further strengthened by the absence of any obvious potential successor.
Nor is the rise of Mr Clegg without danger to Mr Brown. Mr Clegg could make the resignation of the unpopular Mr Brown the price of a Lib-Lab alliance.
Perversely, that could suit some Labour MPs who, privately, say that win or lose, Labour would benefit if Mr Brown stepped down.
dailymail.co.uk
But since Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, put in a stunning performance on Thursday in Britain's first ever televised Leaders' Debate, which focused on domestic affairs, a Liberal Democrat government is looking far likely now.
A truly astonishing poll, conducted by the Mail on Sunday, has put the Liberals in the lead for the first time since 1906, the year that a Liberal government swept to power in a landslide under Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman.
The poll puts the Liberal Democrats on 32%, the Tories on 31% and Labour on 28%. The Liberal Democrats were formed in 1988 after the merger of the Liberals and the Social Democrat Party (SDP). The two parties operated as the Alliance between 1981 and 1988.
However, because of the complexities of Britain's electoral system, if the result of that poll was repeated in the General Election on 6th May, it would be LABOUR who get the most seats in the House of Commons.
Labour would have 267 MPs, with 230 Tories and 121 Lib Dems.
If that happened, a hung parliament would result. This is because 650 MPs are to sit in the Commons, so a party would need at least 326 seats (over half), to win the election outright.
If that happened, the most likely outcome would be a Lib-Lab coalition, giving them a clear Commons majority with a combined total of 388 MPs.
Brown would probably remain as Prime Minister, but Nick Clegg could be made Home Secretary, with the Liberals' respected economics spokesman Vince Cable becoming Chancellor.
The most popular choice of government for the British people is a Labour-Liberal coalition, with 27% of people wanting it. 22% want a Tory government, 20% a Tory-Liberal coalition, and just 15% want a Labour government.
Most polls conducted soon after Thursday's historic TV debate held in Manchester showed that Nick Clegg emerged the clear winner - one poll showed that a whopping 51% of people thought he performed the best of the three party leaders.
54% of people rated Clegg as the most honest during the debate, with 18% rating Brown as the most honest and just 16% rating Tory leader Cameron as the most honest.
On the other hand, Brown was rated as "tired" (during the debate) by 67%, whereas just 1% thought the same of Clegg.
One reason for Clegg's sudden popularity is that, as the leader of very much the smallest of Britain's three main parties, he is almost unknown to the British public and, during the televised PM's Questions in the Commons every Wednesday, he is allowed to ask just two questions to the PM. So that first ever British leaders' debate has allowed the British people to get a good look at him.
However, there are two more televised debates during this election campaign, and the chink in the Liberals' armour may start to show during the next one, to be held this Thursday somewhere in England's south west, probably in Bristol, Plymouth or Truro.
That debate focuses on foreign affairs, and the Liberals are hugely pro-EU and pro-Euro, whereas the British people vastly anti-EU and anti-Euro. A poll has also shown that just 31% of the British people agree with Clegg's desire for more integration with the EU.
The most likely scenario is that after the third debate, on Thursday 29th April, the Tories will take a commanding lead and David Cameron will be crowned Britain's new Prime Minister.
And the last time Britain had a Lib-Lab coalition, 1977-1978, it collapsed, paving the way for the Tories and Margaret Thatcher to come to power.
Brown fails to rule out coalition with Clegg as historic poll puts Lib Dems IN FRONT for first time in 104 years
By Simon Walters, Mail on Sunday Political Editor and David Rose
18th April 2010
Daily Mail
GENERAL ELECTION 2010
Alistair Stewart hosted and refereed Thursday night's historic televised Leaders' Debate, the first held in Britain, which was watched by 10 million people. Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg emerged the clear winner, which has put him surprisingly ahead in the polls
Gordon Brown today repeatedly refused to rule out the possibility of a coalition with the Liberal Democrats as Nick Clegg's party dramatically seized the lead in the Election campaign.
A Mail on Sunday poll reveals Mr Clegg’s sparkling performance in last week's TV debate between the three party leaders has triggered a large rise in support for his party.
It has boosted Mr Brown’s hopes of clinging to power by forming a coalition government with the Lib Dems – in return for a seat at the Cabinet table for Mr Clegg.
Gordon Brown and his wife, Sarah Brown with the congregation outside Wesley's Chapel during his campaign tour in central London
A relaxed Mr Brown looks to be enjoying himself as he chats to the Wesley's Chapel congrgation. Earlier he repeatedly refused to rule out a coalition government
Today the Prime Minister fuelled speculation of a coalition by repeatedly refusing to dismiss such a scenario in an interview with the BBC's Andrew Marr.
He also admitted he had 'lost' the first three-way debate last Thursday and that Mr Clegg's impressive performance had 'thrown the campaign wide open'.
He said: 'I think it's energised the campaign. It's thrown the campaign wide, wide open.
'People thought it was a closed book to start with. I lost on presentation. I lost on style. Maybe I lost on smiling.
'Some may think I'm a sort of a tough headteacher, I don't know.
On the soapbox: Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg speaks to young people in a park in London this afternoon. The Lib Dems overtook their rivals for the first time to lead an opinion poll, increasing the prospect of a hung parliament
'But I've learned at the end of the debate, substance will come through.'
The Prime minister refused to be drawn on the possibilty of a coalition with the Liberal Democrats but his clear refusal to rule it out will fuel speculation he is banking on a surge in the Lib Dem vote to keep him in office.
He would only say: 'We have got to get our policies across to the country. After the election, there is plenty of time to talk about what happens'
Mr Brown also insisted the election campaign was not 'a sprint'.
'It's a long campaign. We haven't debated the economy yet in any substantial way.'
Henry Campbell-Bannerman was the last time a Liberal won the British general election - in 1906
And he added: 'This isn't an X-Factor talent show.'
In the BBC interview, Mr Brown also rejected Tory plans for a cap on immigration, insisting the 'tough' points-based system for admitting skilled migrants was a better way of controlling the numbers and was working.
Asked if 160,000 coming in each year was acceptable, he said: 'It's going to be lower. It's already lower this year. It's going to be a lot lower because the number of students coming in is going to be reduced in the coming year and the points system is starting to have a big effect.'
Mr Brown spoke after today's BPIX poll for The Mail on Sunday shows that support for the Lib Dems has soared to 32 per cent, one point ahead of the Conservatives on 31, with Labour trailing third at 28.
The result of the poll – the most authoritative conducted since the televised debate – represents an unprecedented 30 per cent rise in the Lib Dems’ ratings in a week.
And it is the first-ever opinion survey that has shown the Liberal Democrats, or their predecessors the Liberals, in first place.
The short-lived SDP-Lib Dem Alliance was briefly ahead in the Eighties.
But you have to go back to 1906, before opinion polls or television existed, for the last time the Liberals had the most popular support.
They won a landslide Election under Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman and polled nearly 50 per cent of all votes.
Polling experts say it is possible the Liberal Democrat lead is a blip that could fade before the Election.
But the survey provides further evidence that Britain may be heading for a hung parliament and a Lib-Lab pact that could yet see Mr Brown stay on in No10.
Labour Ministers can barely hide their glee at how the boost in Mr Clegg’s ratings has thrown them a lifeline.
Mr Cameron’s team are in despair at the way it threatens to rob them of what just a few months ago seemed a near-certain triumph.
A Cameron victory depends on him winning dozens of Lib Dem seats. The Clegg bounce makes that far less likely.
Bizarrely, if the BPIX findings are repeated on polling day on May 6, the vagaries of Britain’s first-past-the-post voting system mean Labour would be the ‘winner’ – albeit well short of outright victory.
Labour would have 267 MPs, with 230 Tories and 121 Lib Dems. It would lead to a frantic few days of political horsetrading, with the most likely outcome a Lib-Lab deal giving them a clear Commons majority with a combined total of 388 MPs.
Mr Clegg’s reward for propping up Labour would probably be a Cabinet post, with another for fellow Lib Dem Vince Cable, possibly as Chancellor.
BPIX pollster Professor Paul Whiteley said: ‘This is the Nick Clegg wow factor. It could be a temporary phenomenon but it is hugely important and shows the television debate was a game-changer.
CLICK TO ENLARGE
‘Recent years have seen people’s attachments to political parties chipped away bit by bit. We may now have reached the tipping point where the old tribal loyalties have gone. People are prepared to shop around for the party that offers them the best deal just as they shop around for consumer goods.’
The BPIX survey, in which 2,149 people were interviewed online, is the first full-scale poll to be carried out after the full impact of the televised debate became clear.
It was launched at midday on Friday, by which time newspapers, TV, radio and the internet had all reported Mr Clegg’s coup.
Another poll published yesterday, which put the Lib Dems in second place, began early on Friday morning, before some voters were aware of Mr Clegg’s performance.
Enlarge
Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg's Spanish-born wife, Miriam Gonzalez Durantez, during a visit to Christ Church, in New Malden, Surrey, today
The BPIX poll emphasises how Mr Clegg beat Mr Cameron and Mr Brown hands-down in the debate.
He is seen as more honest, intelligent, slick and relaxed. Even more remarkably, nearly two in three say he is charismatic, compared to one in five for Tory golden boy Mr Cameron and one in 20 for Mr Brown.
Nearly 80 per cent say Old Etonian Mr Cameron is ‘posh’ against a mere four per cent for Mr Clegg, even though he went to the elite private Westminster School and his father is a banker who is even wealthier than Mr Cameron’s stockbroker father.
Asked what outcome they would prefer in the Election, the most popular option is a Brown-Clegg coalition.
That reverses the general view that the Lib-Lab pact in the Seventies was a shambles that paved the way for Margaret Thatcher’s rise to power.
Yet the second most favoured result is the compete opposite – a large Tory victory. A Cameron-Clegg alliance is third choice, and least popular a narrow win by either Tories or Labour.
The poll shows a large majority support Mr Clegg’s pledge to scrap income tax on the first £10,000 of earnings and his ‘mansion tax’ on homes worth more than £2million.
He is also backed over his promise to scrap Britain’s nuclear deterrent and to limit relief on pensions to the basic tax rate.
But his plan for an eco tax on airline flights and his commitment to closer ties with the EU are opposed.
Tory chiefs are pinning their hopes on a better showing by Mr Cameron in Thursday’s second TV debate.
His allies deny they are in a panic. But MPs pointed out that Mr Cameron was warned that allowing Mr Clegg to take part in the debates, instead of insisting on a Cameron versus Brown head-to-head clash, was a mistake.
Enlarge
The new first couple? The Cleggs listen to the sermon at Christ Church, in New Malden, Surrey
Even if Mr Cameron loses the Election, he is likely to survive as leader – for the time being. His allies would argue that if, as before, a Lib-Lab government ended in chaos, there could be another Election in less than a year.
Mr Cameron’s position is further strengthened by the absence of any obvious potential successor.
Nor is the rise of Mr Clegg without danger to Mr Brown. Mr Clegg could make the resignation of the unpopular Mr Brown the price of a Lib-Lab alliance.
Perversely, that could suit some Labour MPs who, privately, say that win or lose, Labour would benefit if Mr Brown stepped down.
dailymail.co.uk
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