Castro still pulling strings while new generation of leadership remains on the sidelines
By ERIC MARGOLIS
Out with the old, in with the old. This week, Cuba officially replaced 81-year-old leader, Fidel Castro, with his 76-year-old "baby" brother, Raul. Promoted to positions just below Raul were two of his closest supporters, 77-year-old Jose Ramon Machado Ventura and 72-year-old Gen. Julio Casas Regueiro, both Stalinist hardliners.
Not since the 1980s era Soviet Politburo and post-Mao China have we seen such political gerontocracy. Being of certain years myself, I have high regard for maturity, but what we've just seen in Cuba, a vibrant, peppery nation filled with youngsters, resembles bridge committee elections in an old folks home.
I've been in Mexico this week, just across the water from Cuba, and busy reading Fidel Castro's daily commentaries with high interest. El Maximo Leader has retired to become El Maximo Commentator. Columnists of the world, unite!
The next generation of Communist leaders who almost everyone believed would succeed Fidel are on hold. But the current gerontocracy won't last long. Keep your eyes on VP Carlos Lage, foreign minister Felipe Roque, and National Assembly president, Ricardo Alarcon.
So what's next for 11 million long-suffering Cubans? Slow speed ahead, for the present, with modest reforms. The army has assumed more power. The economy will remain on life support, kept going by free oil from Venezuela and tourism. Cuba will remain a tropical police state with a clapped out Marxist economy.
French intelligence sources tell me there is a growing risk of major street violence by poor blacks, who make up 60% of the population and live in slums ringing Havana. Army units have been deployed around the capitol.
IN THE BACKGROUND
As for Fidel, this writer, who remembers boisterous Cuba before him, believes he will still pull strings from the background, much as China's Deng Xiaoping did during his last years of infirmity. Interestingly, Deng's only official title was Chairman of the Chinese Bridge Assn., but everyone knew who was boss.
Ditto Fidel, who is adored and respected in Cuba as the national father figure. As I previously reported from Cuba, major change, including a move towards Chinese-style reforms, is unlikely to occur until after Fidel's death. To do so while he lives would be an insult, and show lack of respect to the man who defeated scores of attempts by the United States to assassinate him and force Cuba back into the U.S. orbit.
Cubans are a proud, highly capable people. I have faced their soldiers in Africa and can also attest to their bravery. They have always been the aristocrats of the West Indies since Havana was founded in the 16th century. Cuba is not a little banana republic that can be ordered about by U.S. multinationals or Washington Congressmen in the pay of the Florida sugar lobby.
The nearly half-century U.S. blockade of Cuba is incredibly stupid and must be ended. It probably will be if the Democrats win the White House, in spite of right wing Cuban exile voters in south Florida who keep the embargo alive.
If Americans really want to help long-suffering Cubans, they must engage politically and economically with Havana and end the embargo.
Washington sponsors dictatorships across the Mid-east, Central Asia and, until lately, Pakistan. It has good relations with Vietnam and China, and backs the bloody-handed Afghan Communist Party. Washington can just as well deal with Havana's Marxists.
Besides, the administration that created Guantanamo and made torture the American way of life is hardly in a position to lecture Cuba on human rights.
Candidate Barack Obama is 100% right when he offers to sit down with Raul Castro. He is acting the statesman and realist.
Hillary Clinton and John McCain should be ashamed of themselves for loudly criticizing this sensible proposal.
Cuba will change, but more slowly than we would like, and needs to save face. Washington must also change, ending its foolish, unseemly 50-year vendetta against this small but proud nation.
http://www.torontosun.com/News/Columnists/Margolis_Eric/2008/03/02/4887505-sun.php
By ERIC MARGOLIS
Out with the old, in with the old. This week, Cuba officially replaced 81-year-old leader, Fidel Castro, with his 76-year-old "baby" brother, Raul. Promoted to positions just below Raul were two of his closest supporters, 77-year-old Jose Ramon Machado Ventura and 72-year-old Gen. Julio Casas Regueiro, both Stalinist hardliners.
Not since the 1980s era Soviet Politburo and post-Mao China have we seen such political gerontocracy. Being of certain years myself, I have high regard for maturity, but what we've just seen in Cuba, a vibrant, peppery nation filled with youngsters, resembles bridge committee elections in an old folks home.
I've been in Mexico this week, just across the water from Cuba, and busy reading Fidel Castro's daily commentaries with high interest. El Maximo Leader has retired to become El Maximo Commentator. Columnists of the world, unite!
The next generation of Communist leaders who almost everyone believed would succeed Fidel are on hold. But the current gerontocracy won't last long. Keep your eyes on VP Carlos Lage, foreign minister Felipe Roque, and National Assembly president, Ricardo Alarcon.
So what's next for 11 million long-suffering Cubans? Slow speed ahead, for the present, with modest reforms. The army has assumed more power. The economy will remain on life support, kept going by free oil from Venezuela and tourism. Cuba will remain a tropical police state with a clapped out Marxist economy.
French intelligence sources tell me there is a growing risk of major street violence by poor blacks, who make up 60% of the population and live in slums ringing Havana. Army units have been deployed around the capitol.
IN THE BACKGROUND
As for Fidel, this writer, who remembers boisterous Cuba before him, believes he will still pull strings from the background, much as China's Deng Xiaoping did during his last years of infirmity. Interestingly, Deng's only official title was Chairman of the Chinese Bridge Assn., but everyone knew who was boss.
Ditto Fidel, who is adored and respected in Cuba as the national father figure. As I previously reported from Cuba, major change, including a move towards Chinese-style reforms, is unlikely to occur until after Fidel's death. To do so while he lives would be an insult, and show lack of respect to the man who defeated scores of attempts by the United States to assassinate him and force Cuba back into the U.S. orbit.
Cubans are a proud, highly capable people. I have faced their soldiers in Africa and can also attest to their bravery. They have always been the aristocrats of the West Indies since Havana was founded in the 16th century. Cuba is not a little banana republic that can be ordered about by U.S. multinationals or Washington Congressmen in the pay of the Florida sugar lobby.
The nearly half-century U.S. blockade of Cuba is incredibly stupid and must be ended. It probably will be if the Democrats win the White House, in spite of right wing Cuban exile voters in south Florida who keep the embargo alive.
If Americans really want to help long-suffering Cubans, they must engage politically and economically with Havana and end the embargo.
Washington sponsors dictatorships across the Mid-east, Central Asia and, until lately, Pakistan. It has good relations with Vietnam and China, and backs the bloody-handed Afghan Communist Party. Washington can just as well deal with Havana's Marxists.
Besides, the administration that created Guantanamo and made torture the American way of life is hardly in a position to lecture Cuba on human rights.
Candidate Barack Obama is 100% right when he offers to sit down with Raul Castro. He is acting the statesman and realist.
Hillary Clinton and John McCain should be ashamed of themselves for loudly criticizing this sensible proposal.
Cuba will change, but more slowly than we would like, and needs to save face. Washington must also change, ending its foolish, unseemly 50-year vendetta against this small but proud nation.
http://www.torontosun.com/News/Columnists/Margolis_Eric/2008/03/02/4887505-sun.php
