Israel/Hezbollah - getting ready for round 2?

[earth_as_one]

Both Israel and Hezbollah are in constant violation of the 2006 ceasefire agreement.

Israel routinely violates Lebanon's airspace:
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5icjewGzeG6N0x6Aofa5ae9m2ZUyw

Hezbollah has rearmed and upgraded their arsenal:
http://www.nysun.com/article/65670

Israel still maintains an ability to lay waste to Lebanon and can kill innocent civilians at will. But Hezbollah is quickly gaining the same ability. Hezbollah's new toys may challenge Israel's air and naval superiority.

Whichever side starts the next round will have to get UNIFIL out of the way first or find a way around them. If Hezbolah starts this, most likely they will attempt to take the Shebaa Farms and advance into the Golan heights. That would draw Syria into the conflict... Iran and Syria have a mutual defense pact.

Related
http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2007/11/lebanon_pm_hezb_1.php

http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,12858,1416319,00.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shebaa_Farms

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UNIFIL

 

[Zzarchov]

If Hezbollah ever posed a serious danger it would be dead in 20 minutes, and the "lebanon issue" would be over.

Seeking a violent means to oppose a first world nation is suicidal. IF you think Israel has been purposefully targeting civilians your plain wrong, put its survival on the line and you might just see it. Dresden is what a first world nation could do over 60 years ago, for an example of what a first world nation could do now, kindly look at the moon.

If Hezbollah ever became a problem, that is what would happen to Lebanon, and there would be nothing that could be done to stop it.

Hezbollah is retarded, its a little like picking a fist fight with an armed man, if you ever seriously were a danger you'd just get shot.

 

[earth_as_one]

Israel holds thousands of people captive. Some are belligerents but a significant number are civilians. Some are just women and children. BTW... What is the point in holding children captive anyway? Are you saying their friends and relatives should just accept Israel holding these people indefinitely because Israel is a first world power? Are you saying that Israel's neighbors should just accept getting stepped on anytime Israel feels like it, because Israel is a first world power?

That isn't how human nature works.

The message I believe Israel sent these people is that if they want to free their friends and relatives, they better be prepared to fight a total war which involves killing innocent civilians.

What has changed since the end of the 2006 war is that Israel's adversaries have even better technology to bomb Israeli cities from a distance and defend themselves.

Before starting another war, Israel's adversaries would be wise to:

1) wait until they have the same ability to kill innocent civilians as Israel.

2) not associate themselves with any particular nation.

Your reference to Dresden is accurate. Dresden, like Beirut was also a target of little strategic value. The point in both cases was to collectively punish innocent civilians.

Perhaps Israel could have flattened more of Lebanon. But their "measured" response was only to flatten sections. But killing civilians like that in response to a minor border raid within the terms of previous agreements can't be described as "proportional" or "rational".

Maybe Israel didn't have enough munitions on hand to flatten all of Beirut. Near the end, Israel was placing emergency orders for more bombs with the US. I doubt Israel had enough bombs on hand to flatten all of Beruit let alone all of Lebanon... without resorting to nukes.

I wonder if our politicians would still describe flattening a city with nukes in response to a minor border raid as "measured"?

As a result of Israel's "measured" response, Israel's adversaries probably learned that they must acquire the ability to defend innocent civilians populations, or more likely start to immmediately evacuate cities. I imagine they won't strike Israel again until they have the same ability to kill innocent civilians as Israel demonstrated that last time round. Judging from the build up, I'd say they are getting close to acquiring those capabilities.

Technically Israel and Lebanon are still at war. They also used to have an agreement not to target civilians:

Under the terms of the agreement, both sides agreed to end cross-border attacks on civilian targets, as well refrain from using civilian villages to launch attacks. The Monitoring Committee for the Implementation of the Grapes of Wrath Understandings was set up, comprised of representatives from the US, France, Syria, Israel and Lebanon. The committee convenes to monitor and discuss infringements of the understandings by the two sides.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli-Lebanese_Ceasefire_Understanding

Both sides conducted raids against the other side over the years since that agreement. The July 12, 2006 raid was not a violation of the April agreement. Even Israel's response that day appears not to have been a violation. But it didn't take long for things to get out of hand and for both sides to be in violation of that agreement.

Here is what Israeli Generals said on the first day of the conflict:

"This affair is between Israel and the state of Lebanon," Adam said. "Where to attack? Once it is inside Lebanon, everything is legitimate -- not just southern Lebanon, not just the line of Hezbollah posts." (Watch as Israeli forces enter Lebanon -- 2:29)

Earlier, Israel's chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz, told Israel's Channel 10, "If the soldiers are not returned, we will turn Lebanon's clock back 20 years."
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/07/12/mideast/index.html

Those statements sure sound like Israel's generals planned to violate the April Agreement from the start. But its hard to say from short sound bites if that was their intent.

The next day, Israel bombed Beruit airport. That attack had no military purpose. Hezbollah has no airforce. Hezbollah can enter and leave Lebanon through the border with Syria and Turkey as easily as they could get on a civilian plane. The point of that attack was to strand tourists as far as I can tell.

Hezbollah responded with limited missile attacks on Israeli towns near the border. Limited as in they had a lot more rockets and but seemed intent on causing about the same level of civilian destruction as Israel.

Both the Beruit Airport attack and the missile attacks in response were violations of the agreement. Israel crossed the line and Hezbollah crossed it right back. But the agreement still could have been salvaged at that point with outside pressure on both sides. But instead our leaders defended Israel's actions.

But the next day, Israel's bombing of downtown Beirut was a clear violation of the April agreement and major escalation. Sure the target was an area with Hezbollah offices, but Hezbollah's command and control structure had very likely dispersed by then. Likely a lot more more photocopiers than rockets were destroyed in those raids. I don't see any tactical or strategic value in bombing empty offices. Certainly nothing worth risking the lives of thousands of innocent people who lived in the area. Few of the resulting casualties appear to associated with Hezbollah. A lot of them look like women and children. Those raids were clearly an escalation with the intent to collectively punish innocent civilians.

Judge for yourself.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/06/middle_east_beirut_destruction/html/1.stm

Those images look similar to 9/11 to me.

The next day, Hezbollah declared total war, effectively giving the go ahead to their military wing to target Israeli civilians at will. Did that decision surprise the Israel's generals who ordered the destruction of downtown Beirut?

Even though both sides escalated the conflict to include civilians, the original battle on the first day only involved military targets. Sure there was minor collateral civilian damage on both sides, but it wasn't deliberate targeting of civilians for the purpose of collective punishment.

Following the timeline of events, it appears Israel escalated this conflict to include civilian targets first with the raid on Beirut airport.

Personally I wish both sides would just keep civilians of it.

 

[Just the Facts]

Didn't Israel just release hundreds if not thousands of prisoners. All they had to do was state they would not participate in terrorism. I wonder how many will stick to that.

Where are the captured Israeli's? Thousands in exchange for two, and still not good enough. There's Palestinian sense of fair play right there in a nutshell.

Here's the guy the Palestinians really want released, that "Freedom Fighting Hero!!:

Neither Israel nor Hezbollah doubt that Qontar murdered Danny and Einat Haran. The only difference is that Israel sees him as the cold-blooded murderer he is. Hezbollah and their supporters glorify him as a freedom fighter and hero!

There is another point worth mentioning. Hezbollah has never claimed that Qontar was innocent or that he may have been framed. They only demand his release as if he were being held unlawfully and that Israel had no right to imprison him. Once again it's all about Israel never doing any right and Arabs incapable of doing any wrong!

A SAD GRUESOME REALITY

Caution: Disturbing narrative follows:

After drowning Danny in the sea in front of little Einat, Qontar, the brave Lebanese freedom fighter, then turned his attention towards the frightened little 4-year old. He took his rifle and then swung it across the little toddler's head, knocking her to the ground. As little Einat was knocked to the ground, she was screaming and crying hysterically "mommy daddy help me," while thrashing her little legs around in the sand. But unfortunately Einat was alone, and no one was there to save her. Qontar then dragged the little toddler a couple of feet to the closest rock he could find, this was while she was begging him not to hurt her. Qontar, then laid her head down on a rock, with the intention of crushing it with the butt of his rifle. Einat, instinctively covered her head with her little arms, Qontar struggled with the little toddler until he finally managed to clear her arms out of the way so that he could aim for the head, and then he proceeded on beating her over and over with the butt of his rifle until blood rushed out of her ears and her little cries faded away as she was knocked into unconsciousness. Then, to ensure she was dead, Qontar continued on beating her over the head, as hard as he could, several more times until her skull was crushed and she was dead.

http://neworleans.indymedia.org/news/2007/08/10764_comment.php



As for the rest of your points, Polly want a cracker? :lol:

http://forums.canadiancontent.net/international-politics/62820-six-days-shook-world.html

 

[earth_as_one]

If these events happened as described above, why not try this person in a court of law and let him be convicted or freed based on the evidence? Why hold this person for years without a trial?

Personally I've read enough pro-Israel propaganda which turned out to be distortions or complete fabrications to be skeptical of any Israeli version of events.

For example, the testimony above is pretty detailed considering "Einat was alone, and no one was there to save her". That seems contradictory.

This one case, even if true is hardly representative of the rest of Israel's prisoners. Most likely it is the worst case.

Portraying this person as representative of the thousands of men, women and children held without charges in Israeli prisons is about as accurate as portraying all IDF soldiers as behaving like this:

An Israeli army officer who fired the entire magazine of his automatic rifle into a 13-year-old Palestinian girl and then said he would have done the same even if she had been three years old was acquitted on all charges by a military court yesterday.

The soldier, who has only been identified as "Captain R", was charged with relatively minor offences for the killing of Iman al-Hams who was shot 17 times as she ventured near an Israeli army post near Rafah refugee camp in Gaza a year ago.
The manner of Iman's killing, and the revelation of a tape recording in which the captain is warned that she was just a child who was "scared to death", made the shooting one of the most controversial since the Palestinian intifada erupted five years ago even though hundreds of other children have also died.
After the verdict, Iman's father, Samir al-Hams, said the army never intended to hold the soldier accountable.
"They did not charge him with Iman's murder, only with small offences, and now they say he is innocent of those even though he shot my daughter so many times," he said. "This was the cold-blooded murder of a girl. The soldier murdered her once and the court has murdered her again. What is the message? They are telling their soldiers to kill Palestinian children."
The military court cleared the soldier of illegal use of his weapon, conduct unbecoming an officer and perverting the course of justice by asking soldiers under his command to alter their accounts of the incident.
Capt R's lawyers argued that the "confirmation of the kill" after a suspect is shot was a standard Israeli military practice to eliminate terrorist threats.
Following the verdict, Capt R burst into tears, turned to the public benches and said: "I told you I was innocent."
The army's official account said that Iman was shot for crossing into a security zone carrying her schoolbag which soldiers feared might contain a bomb. It is still not known why the girl ventured into the area but witnesses described her as at least 100 yards from the military post which was in any case well protected.
A recording of radio exchanges between Capt R and his troops obtained by Israeli television revealed that from the beginning soldiers identified Iman as a child.
In the recording, a soldier in a watchtower radioed a colleague in the army post's operations room and describes Iman as "a little girl" who was "scared to death". After soldiers first opened fire, she dropped her schoolbag which was then hit by several bullets establishing that it did not contain explosive. At that point she was no longer carrying the bag and, the tape revealed, was heading away from the army post when she was shot.
Although the military speculated that Iman might have been trying to "lure" the soldiers out of their base so they could be attacked by accomplices, Capt R made the decision to lead some of his troops into the open. Shortly afterwards he can be heard on the recording saying that he has shot the girl and, believing her dead, then "confirmed the kill".
"I and another soldier ... are going in a little nearer, forward, to confirm the kill ... Receive a situation report. We fired and killed her ... I also confirmed the kill. Over," he said.
Palestinian witnesses said they saw the captain shoot Iman twice in the head, walk away, turn back and fire a stream of bullets into her body.
On the tape, Capt R then "clarifies" to the soldiers under his command why he killed Iman: "This is commander. Anything that's mobile, that moves in the [security] zone, even if it's a three-year-old, needs to be killed."
At no point did the Israeli troops come under attack.
The prosecution case was damaged when a soldier who initially said he had seen Capt R point his weapon at the girl's body and open fire later told the court he had fabricated the story.
Capt R claimed that he had not fired the shots at the girl but near her. However, Dr Mohammed al-Hams, who inspected the child's body at Rafah hospital, counted numerous wounds. "She has at least 17 bullets in several parts of the body, all along the chest, hands, arms, legs," he told the Guardian shortly afterwards. "The bullets were large and shot from a close distance. The most serious injuries were to her head. She had three bullets in the head. One bullet was shot from the right side of the face beside the ear. It had a big impact on the whole face."
The army's initial investigation concluded that the captain had "not acted unethically". But after some of the soldiers under his command went to the Israeli press to give a different version, the military police launched a separate investigation after which he was charged.
Capt R claimed that the soldiers under his command were out to get him because they are Jewish and he is Druze.
The transcript The following is a recording of a three-way conversation that took place between a soldier in a watchtower, an army operations room and Capt R, who shot the girl...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,,1643573,00.html

You can read the transcript for yourself. At the time the IDF soldier emptied his clip into this 13 year old girl, he knew she was helpless and harmless. I doubt most IDF soldiers are that cruel and heartless.

Now that we've traded gore stories, how likely is it that all 10,756 Palestinian men, women and children are as cruel and heartless as your example?

1 Israeli is being held prisoner by Palestinians, while 10,756 Palestinians are currently imprisoned by Israel.

“Since the beginning of the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories in 1967, over 650,000 Palestinians have been detained by Israel. This forms approximately 20% of the total Palestinian population in the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT).”​

http://www.ifamericansknew.org/stats/prisoners.html

(the above link also describes the prison population demographics and the conditions/torture endured by these people)

I doubt 20% of Palestinians are murderers and baby killers.

Some of these people are guilty of being elected representatives.

The Secretary-General of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, Prof. Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, condemned the arrest of Mr. Nasser Al Shaer, the Palestinian Deputy Premier, by the Israeli occupation forces in his residence in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank. The Secretary-General affirmed the need for Israel to abide by the international law, the Geneva Conventions and the agreements concluded with the Palestinian side, particularly while dealing with the Palestinian personalities elected by the Palestinian people, and the Palestinian civilians in the occupied Palestinian territories.

http://domino.un.org/UNISPAL.NSF/ee...7a81613d555642e2852571e80055324c!OpenDocument

Other people are guilty of being related to someone Israel considers of interest:

February 10, 2003
RAMALLAH - Israeli occupation forces have recently started a heavy abduction campaign among the wives of the Palestinian resistance fighters and the women affiliated to Islamic groups in Palestinian universities.
The aim of the abduction is to dampen the determination of the abducted fighters or to get information from the women about the places where wanted fighters might be hiding.

Palestinian sources, which closely monitor the situation of the abducted Palestinians, told Quds Press on Friday, February 7, that: “These arrests have been accompanied by aggressive physical assaults and rape attempts, which is an unprecedented dangerous move.”...

http://www.ifamericansknew.org/cur_sit/wives-resist.html

Regarding the people Israel released recently to create space in their prisons to pick up more people. Lately Israel has been letting people loyal to Abbas (Fatah) free in an attempt to tip the balance of power in his favor. Israel still hasn't released anyone as per an agreement with Hezbollah or Hamas. These organizations hold Israeli soldiers, not Fatah. Why would these organizations release prisoners in a response to Israel's support of their rivals?

But back on subject.

Hezbollah captured the IDF soldiers on July 12, 2006 within the agreed parameters of the April Agreement for the purposes of a prisoner swap. Such raids and deals had ben made in the past and it was reasonable for Hezbollah to assume their raid might lead to a resolution of Israel's indefinite imprionment of inocent people.

If some of these prisoners were guilty of crimes, then that could have been factored into any deal. Israel could have handed people it considered criminals over to an agreed upon neutral third party and let the accused stand trial. At least that way these people would have a chance at freedom and the reasons for their continued imprisonment would be transparent and fair.

 

[Zzarchov]

ok,

I could have read anything you said, but its the same and uses insane logic.

1.) The number of prisoners held captive.

That is irrelevant. 1 it just shows palestinian favour execution, 2 it show military ability.

You can't say "Might doesn't make right" and then say "Might automatically means wrong". Either might is a determining factor of bargaining power (a realist/cynics view) or might has no bearing either way on bargaining power (an idealist view).

You can't just spin it either way.

From a realistic standpoint. As long as the main view of Hezbollah is that they always rule over Jews and never accept anything but drowning them in the river (they say they won't accept Jewish people who can't trace back their ancestry..you can't deport them since they don't come from anywhere, whats left, hint, its death or slavery, Hezbollah will never be anything but a nuisance.

If it ever became anything more, it would be erradicated, and these people whom they hold hostage by engaging in a war in their backyards, will all be executed.

Thats reality, people aren't going to roll over and die because your views insist they should cease to exist, they will kill you and anyone else in their way.

Come after my family, whether or not you think you are righteous and I will kill you.

And from a personal perspective, your post is full of hypocrisy.

By the logic you espouse, you should leave Canada, since as an immigrant you have no business here and anyone who isn't first nations should bugger off (keeping in mind we'd all have to die since there is no where for 95% of us to go)

 

[earth_as_one]

Z,
The reason why you think my views are full of hypocrisy may be that you are confusing my views with Hezbollah's or Hamas. I don't share the same viewpoint as these people.

I am not in favor of forcibly deporting anyone from the holylands who wants to live in peace with their neighbors. How people ended up there or which religion they belong to is beside the point. The majority of people in this area want to live in peace. I support the right of these people to live in the holylands.

I am agnostic. I don't see any religion as "the one true religion" or superior over another. From my viewpoint, a person's religion should be none of the state's business. That's a problem I have with both Zionist Israel and Islamic extremism. Religious based entitlement leads to oppression and injustice. Oppression and injustice leads to violence and destruction....

Since I am against violence and destruction, oppression and injustice, I am also against religious based entitlement, Zionism and Islamic extremism.

I'm not in favor of a Jewish, Muslim or Christian state beyond something like the Vatican. I am in favor of making the holylands nationless or international. Anyone who can add positively to the local culture, economy, ecology... should be welcome to this area and their race/religion should be beside the point.

The holylands should be a prosperous tourist destination, not a war zone.

I'm not in favor of making people homeless because they aren't Jewish. I'm also not in favor of making people homeless because they are Jewish. That would be hypocritical...

Ethnic cleansing only leads to hatred, violence and destruction. When the Zionist state of Israel falls (inevitable over time), the majority of Jews living in Israel should be allowed to keep their property and continue living in the holylands. Only people who refuse to live in peace with their neighbors should be forced to leave or incarcerated.

I am not in favor of the existing Zionist state of Israel because it favors one group of people over another based on religion. I'm not in favor of creating a new state which would do the same thing against Jews. That would be hypocritical...

If you read my posts you will see I am consistent.

Right now the side with the upper hand are the Zionists. They have the military might and control our media. That doesn't make them right or wrong. Its the Zionist idea of religious based entitlement which makes Zionism wrong. If more people understood what was going on here, Zionist Israel wouldn't be getting billions each year in military support and this conflict might actually have been solved peacefully by now.

By the way, I also believe in gradualism. The US should not cut off this support immediately. Zionist Israel should be weaned off military aid over time. I am in favor of a weapon free holyland.

Even though I am agnostic, I have no problem with Judaism or any religion which promotes peaceful coexistance and tolerance. In fact I wish more people (including Jews, Christians and Mulims) would follow their religions.

If Muslims were doing the same things on the same scale to Jews and our news was whitewashing it the same way, I'd be posting to expose that misinformation.

The side I choose is the side of innocent people who suffer. I can no more ignore the suffering of millions of Palestinians then I would have been able to ignore the suffering of millions of Jews during the holocaust. If I was alive then, I'd be writing in suport of allowing Jewish refugees to settle in Canada and pointing out Nazi atrocities against Jews. If I was living in Europe during that time I would hide Jewish refugees in my home at the risk of my personal safety.

I am often accused of being anti-Semitic by lazy people who oppose my viewpoints. Yet while researching this conflict, I have discovered that many Jewish groups also share my viewpoints.

B'tselem: http://www.btselem.org/English/
Jews Against Zionism: http://www.jewsagainstzionism.com/about/index.cfm
Jewish Voice for Peace: http://www.jewishvoiceforpeace.org/publish/mission.shtml
Not In My Name: http://www.nimn.org/About/menu/000010.php?section=Where We Stand
Jews Against the Occupation: http://www.jatonyc.org/
Visions of Peace with Justice in Israel/Palestine

Like the Jews Against Zionism, I've also come to the conclusion that the current path leads to another holocaust:

We mourn the fact that so many Jewish and non-Jewish lives are at the mercy of the Zionist regime, which by attacking Iran would certainly trigger a bloody conflict. It is clear to all that Iran would not sit silently under Zionist attack as Iraq did in 1981. We hope that these fears do not materialize and that the Zionists, despite their disregard for the Jewish faith, still have enough sense left in them to reject such an irresponsible option.

Moreover, we urge any Jews who have the ability to leave the Zionist state to do so as soon as possible, so that at least their lives will not be hanging in this delicate balance.
http://www.jewsagainstzionism.com/news/currentarticle.cfm?id=71

Z, I strongly recommend you visit the "Jews against Zionism website" with an open mind. You may be surprised by the position of Orthodox Jews regarding Zionism!!! Or maybe you are already aware. At a minimum, I'd am curious of your opinion of this group....

Like Jews against Zionism, I am also in favor of massive emigration from Israel and the occupied territories. I am in favor of welcoming as many people from this area (both Jews and non-Jews) to Canada as we can absorb without changing the character of Canada before this area is destroyed completely by war.

All empires collapse, sooner or later. When the US falls, so too will Israel. I expect Israel's Zionist leaders will resort to using their nukes at that time, destroying Beirut, Damascus, Tehran... Destroying these cities will set off a chain of events, which will in the end will lead to the destruction of the Haifa, Tel Aviv and most Israeli cities. Zionist Israel will finally collapse as it is overrun by militants.

By the time the war ends, millions of people will have died and Israeli Jews will face yet another holocaust.

I don't want that future. But I believe the current path leads to that destination.

I post information to counter misinformation. I take the side of the innocent and oppressed who suffer injustice. I do this because it is the moral and ethical thing to do. I also believe it contributes toward settling this conflict peacefully. That's not being hypocritical Z.