After the end of Empire, many expected Britain to go on an inexorable decline. But Britain is now one of few developed countries in which the population is still growing - and it's growing much faster than expected, due to a birth rate that is at its highest in decades and increased immigration. Britain's population could be around 80 million by 2050. Britain could overtake Germany, whose population is shrinking, as the most populous country in Western Europe (and Western Europe's largest economy)...
On a tear
Oct 25th 2007
From The Economist print edition
Britain's population is set to grow ferociously—perhaps
ALL countries need a national myth. For decades after its loss of empire, Britain's was that of its own decline. Yet not everything is withering away. Britain is one of the relatively few developed countries that have a growing population, and it is growing far faster than was thought just two years ago.
According to the Office for National Statistics, which released new estimates on October 23rd, today's population of 60m may become roughly 71m in 25 years' time, and 77m by 2050.
These projections suggest the biggest increase in population since the post-war baby boom, much of it due to immigration (see chart). Foreign-born women are pushing up the birth rate, which is now expected to stabilise at 1.84 children per woman rather than the 1.74 that was projected in 2005. Life expectancy, currently 77.2 years for men and 82.7 for women, is likely to rise by 2031 to 81.5 and 86.2, respectively. Net immigration may eventually run at around 190,000 a year, not at 145,000 as assumed.
With Germany's population declining and Britain's growing - fast - Britain could become Europe's most populous nation
Not everyone is keen on the prospect of a bumper crop of new citizens. The Optimum Population Trust, a think-tank, cites surveys showing that most people think Britain is already overcrowded.
David Coleman, a demographer at Oxford University, describes meeting the needs of an extra 15m or so people as an “absent-minded commitment” about which there has been little debate. Unplanned immigration has posed problems for many local councils, which are struggling to find houses and school places for newcomers. And some worry about the social consequences of a population that could, by Mr Coleman's calculations, be 30% non-white by 2050.
But will all this in fact come to pass? Population projections are fraught with difficulty, points out Andrew Hinde of Southampton University. Improvements in life expectancy have been relatively constant, he says, but migration and fertility are much trickier to predict.
Migration—which accounts directly for around half of the predicted population increase—is particularly elusive. The scanty data come mainly from a single survey. Numbers fluctuate for many reasons, including changes in government policy, booms and busts in Britain's economy, and conditions in the places that immigrants come from. Fertility can defy predictions too: one projection in the 1940s failed to foresee a rise in child-bearing in the following two decades and put the population of England and Wales at 35m in 2000—a third less than proved to be the case. And predictions are more speculative the further into the future they go, as even small errors grow large when repeatedly compounded.
That immigration accounts for so much of the predicted rise in Britain's population makes discussing the problem of overcrowding politically difficult, for migration frequently tops the list of voters' concerns these days. Both the Labour government and its Conservative opponents have promised to tighten the rules. If these new projections are even halfway correct, the issue can only become more pressing with time.
economist.com
On a tear
Oct 25th 2007
From The Economist print edition
Britain's population is set to grow ferociously—perhaps
ALL countries need a national myth. For decades after its loss of empire, Britain's was that of its own decline. Yet not everything is withering away. Britain is one of the relatively few developed countries that have a growing population, and it is growing far faster than was thought just two years ago.
According to the Office for National Statistics, which released new estimates on October 23rd, today's population of 60m may become roughly 71m in 25 years' time, and 77m by 2050.
These projections suggest the biggest increase in population since the post-war baby boom, much of it due to immigration (see chart). Foreign-born women are pushing up the birth rate, which is now expected to stabilise at 1.84 children per woman rather than the 1.74 that was projected in 2005. Life expectancy, currently 77.2 years for men and 82.7 for women, is likely to rise by 2031 to 81.5 and 86.2, respectively. Net immigration may eventually run at around 190,000 a year, not at 145,000 as assumed.
With Germany's population declining and Britain's growing - fast - Britain could become Europe's most populous nation
Not everyone is keen on the prospect of a bumper crop of new citizens. The Optimum Population Trust, a think-tank, cites surveys showing that most people think Britain is already overcrowded.
David Coleman, a demographer at Oxford University, describes meeting the needs of an extra 15m or so people as an “absent-minded commitment” about which there has been little debate. Unplanned immigration has posed problems for many local councils, which are struggling to find houses and school places for newcomers. And some worry about the social consequences of a population that could, by Mr Coleman's calculations, be 30% non-white by 2050.
But will all this in fact come to pass? Population projections are fraught with difficulty, points out Andrew Hinde of Southampton University. Improvements in life expectancy have been relatively constant, he says, but migration and fertility are much trickier to predict.
Migration—which accounts directly for around half of the predicted population increase—is particularly elusive. The scanty data come mainly from a single survey. Numbers fluctuate for many reasons, including changes in government policy, booms and busts in Britain's economy, and conditions in the places that immigrants come from. Fertility can defy predictions too: one projection in the 1940s failed to foresee a rise in child-bearing in the following two decades and put the population of England and Wales at 35m in 2000—a third less than proved to be the case. And predictions are more speculative the further into the future they go, as even small errors grow large when repeatedly compounded.
That immigration accounts for so much of the predicted rise in Britain's population makes discussing the problem of overcrowding politically difficult, for migration frequently tops the list of voters' concerns these days. Both the Labour government and its Conservative opponents have promised to tighten the rules. If these new projections are even halfway correct, the issue can only become more pressing with time.
economist.com