Iran's Military Capabilities

earth_as_one

Time Out
Jan 5, 2006
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I noticed in the other article about Iran's high speed torpedoes that many people here are making the same mistake about Iran that the French did about Germany before WW II. The French Marginot Line, which would have been useful during WW I, failed to take into account technology change. When WW II broke out, the German tanks and armoured vehicles went around the Marginot Line, while German warplanes flew over it.

The reality today is that multi-million dollar weapons systems like tanks and attack helicopters useful in past wars have been rendered obsolete by new generation Rocket Propelled Grenades (RPGs), Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and Man Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS).

http://searchingforthetruth.typepad.com/searching_for_the_truth/2006/08/rpg29_the_great.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4320818.stm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misagh-2

Even American air superiority over Iran at higher altitudes is not assured since Iran purchased Russian TOR-M1

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20070123/59533017.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SA-15_Gauntlet

While Iranian surface to air missiles can shoot down close air support aircraft, high altitude bombers which can fly above Iran's defenses would still be able to inflict substantial damage. Iran's most likely response would be to retaliate by dipping into its growing stockpile of surface to surface missiles capable of hitting Israeli and American targets throughout the middle east.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran's_missile_forces

Any wholescale slaughter of Iranian civilians by American bombers would likely be met with attacks on Israeli civilians.

As noted in the other string, Iran does possess a supercavitation torpedo. This weapon was in the news a year ago:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4871078.stm

But the threat from this unguided short range torpedo is overrated. The real Iranian threat to the American Navy and Persian Gulf shipping comes from Iran's extensive arsenal of anti-ship missiles.

http://www.missiledefenseadvocacy.org/index/news/current/iranacquireschinesetechnology.html

Iran has enough military clout to defend against a ground invasion and deter targetting Iranian civilians.

The US or Israel might be able to get away with a small scale raid, but its unlikely such a raid would accomplish much besides generating support for Iran's government domestically and internationally.

...Iran - and other countries - have also learnt from the Osirak raid by dispersing their nuclear research over a number of sites and by building plants such as Natanz deep underground covered by layer upon layer of earth and concrete, making the effectiveness of even bunker-busting bombs questionable.

There are also far more sites in Iran now than there were in Iraq back in 1981 and there are real questions over whether US and Israel can be confident enough that their intelligence has sight of all of the programme. Because of the way in which states learnt from the Israeli raid on Osirak, that strike may well be a one-off in terms of effectiveness which cannot be easily replicated...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6414771.stm

So a large scale direct confrontation between the US and Iran is unlikely. Far more likely is that Iran will start a proxy war with the US by arming Hezbollah indirectly with modern man-portable munitions which will then be used against Israel. Preparations for round two in that conflict are well underway by both sides.



Robert Fisk: Lebanon will be first victim of Iran crisis

How easily the sparks from the American-Israeli fire fall across the Middle East. Every threat, every intransigence uttered in Washington and Tehran now burns a little bit more of Lebanon. It is not by chance that the UN forces in the south of the country now face growing suspicion among the Shia Muslims who live there. It is no coincidence that Israel thunders that the Hizbollah are now more powerful than they were before last year's July war. It is not an accident that Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbollah's leader, says he has brought more missiles into Lebanon.

Why, the Lebanese ask, did President Bashar al-Assad of Syria visit President Ahmadinejad of Iran last weekend? To further seal their "brotherly" relations? Or to plan a new war with Israel in Lebanon?

The images of Iran's new missile launches during three days of military manoeuvres - apparently long-range rockets which could be fired at US warships in the Gulf - were splashed across the Beirut papers yesterday morning, along with Washington's latest threats of air strikes against Iran's military. Be certain that the Lebanese will be the first to suffer

For the West, the crisis in Lebanon - where Hizbollah and its allies are still demanding the resignation of Fouad Siniora's government - is getting more serious by the hour. Up to 20,000 UN troops - including Nato battalions of Spanish, French and Italian forces - are now billeted across the hillsides of southern Lebanon, in the very battleground upon which the Israelis and the Hizbollah are threatening to fight each other again.

If Israel is America's proxy (which the Lebanese don't doubt), then Hizbollah is Iran's proxy. ...

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/fisk/article2290044.ece