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Location: Independent Palestine
Location: Independent Palestine
March 23rd, 2006, 04:50 PM
15 months after Orange Revolution, Ukraine readies for parliamentary elections
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at 14:05 on March 23, 2006, EST.
By FRED WEIR
KYIV, Ukraine (CP) - Ukrainians vote Sunday in parliamentary polls that observers are calling open and free. And in a bit of a surprise, opinion surveys suggest that the party of Viktor Yanukovych, accused of rigging 2004 presidential elections, could emerge the big winner.
"It's looking quite possible that Yanukovych and his allies could form a small majority in the new parliament," says Volodymyr Paniotto, director of the independent Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), which released its final opinion poll on Thursday.
"This could lead to an extended political crisis in Ukraine."
Ukrainians have seen a tumultuous 15 months since the so-called Orange Revolution, when mass protests over alleged fraud forced a fresh electoral runoff between official presidential winner Yanukovych and pro-western liberal Viktor Yushchenko, which Yushchenko won by 52 to 44 per cent.
A huge Canadian observer team, headed by former prime minister John Turner, was on hand to certify the result.
Canada has officially sent only 40 people to scrutinize Sunday's polls, but the Ukrainian Canadian Congress is fielding 150, mostly Ukrainian and Russian-speaking observers of its own.
"We feel this is an important role we can play to help ensure the integrity and transparency of the election process in Ukraine," says Paul Grod, a Toronto lawyer who's heading the UCC delegation.
"We needed to be here for this election because we were concerned not to have any repeat of what happened in November 2004. We're a deterrent to fraud by being on the ground," he says.
Nearly 50 parties are contending for seats in the Supreme Rada, Ukraine's parliament. But only three blocs representing Yanukovych, Yushchenko and the former prime minister who was fired by Yushchenko last year, Yulia Tymoshenko, have substantial support.
The KIIS survey puts Yanukovych's Party of Regions far in the lead with 37 per cent backing among Ukrainians. Trailing behind are Tymoshenko's bloc with 19 per cent and Yushchenko's Our Ukraine with 18 per cent.
The Socialist party, a potential Yanukovych ally, has five per cent support and the Communists have four per cent. According to the survey, no other party looks likely to breach the three per cent threshold needed to enter parliament.
Ukraine, a post-Soviet republic of around 50 million, is deeply divided between its industrial and heavily Russified east, where Yanukovych is strong, and the more nationalistic, Ukrainian-speaking west.
That schism has been aggravated by outside influences. In the past five years the European Union has expanded to Ukraine's borders, while a resurgent Russia under President Vladimir Putin has sought to draw Ukraine into a Moscow-led economic common market.
"We have a lot of geopolitical phobias nowadays," says Dimitri Vydrin, director of the independent Institute of Integration and Development in Kyiv. "Some fear Russia, others fear NATO, and it warps our politics."
Experts say Yushchenko's decision to sack his strongest ally, Tymoshenko, last September caused deep bitterness and may have permanently split the ranks of orange supporters.
Yanukovych, by contrast, has kept his team together and scored political points from Ukraine's sharp economic decline over the past year as well as the disarray among pro-western politicians.
"To many people the unity of Yanukovych's forces looks preferable to the constant intrigues and splits in the orange camp," says Vydrin.
A gas blockade of Ukraine, launched by Russia in early January over a pricing dispute, also appears to have worked to Yanukovych's advantage.
"To our surprise, our polling shows that a majority of people blamed Yushchenko for the gas conflict," says Paniotto. "It was bad for Yushchenko. If that was one of Russia's aims, they succeeded."
If no party wins a convincing majority in Sunday's vote, parliament will have to try to find a workable coalition. But experts say none of the three big groups appears in any mood to compromise, much less unite, with any other.
"I'm afraid we are headed into a period of extended political crisis," says Oleksandr Shushko, research director of the independent Institute for Euro-Atlantic Co-operation in Kyiv.
"But there's no danger of reversing what we accomplished in the Orange Revolution. We're playing by democratic rules now, we're a new country."
http://start.shaw.ca/start/enCA/News...c=w032357A.xml
So it appears that the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, the Red Revolution in Georgia and the revolution in Krygyzstan are all duds so far because they are all still corrupt and they have done anti-democratic actions.
America must be proud. I am sure Putin is.
15 months after Orange Revolution, Ukraine readies for parliamentary elections
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
at 14:05 on March 23, 2006, EST.
By FRED WEIR
KYIV, Ukraine (CP) - Ukrainians vote Sunday in parliamentary polls that observers are calling open and free. And in a bit of a surprise, opinion surveys suggest that the party of Viktor Yanukovych, accused of rigging 2004 presidential elections, could emerge the big winner.
"It's looking quite possible that Yanukovych and his allies could form a small majority in the new parliament," says Volodymyr Paniotto, director of the independent Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), which released its final opinion poll on Thursday.
"This could lead to an extended political crisis in Ukraine."
Ukrainians have seen a tumultuous 15 months since the so-called Orange Revolution, when mass protests over alleged fraud forced a fresh electoral runoff between official presidential winner Yanukovych and pro-western liberal Viktor Yushchenko, which Yushchenko won by 52 to 44 per cent.
A huge Canadian observer team, headed by former prime minister John Turner, was on hand to certify the result.
Canada has officially sent only 40 people to scrutinize Sunday's polls, but the Ukrainian Canadian Congress is fielding 150, mostly Ukrainian and Russian-speaking observers of its own.
"We feel this is an important role we can play to help ensure the integrity and transparency of the election process in Ukraine," says Paul Grod, a Toronto lawyer who's heading the UCC delegation.
"We needed to be here for this election because we were concerned not to have any repeat of what happened in November 2004. We're a deterrent to fraud by being on the ground," he says.
Nearly 50 parties are contending for seats in the Supreme Rada, Ukraine's parliament. But only three blocs representing Yanukovych, Yushchenko and the former prime minister who was fired by Yushchenko last year, Yulia Tymoshenko, have substantial support.
The KIIS survey puts Yanukovych's Party of Regions far in the lead with 37 per cent backing among Ukrainians. Trailing behind are Tymoshenko's bloc with 19 per cent and Yushchenko's Our Ukraine with 18 per cent.
The Socialist party, a potential Yanukovych ally, has five per cent support and the Communists have four per cent. According to the survey, no other party looks likely to breach the three per cent threshold needed to enter parliament.
Ukraine, a post-Soviet republic of around 50 million, is deeply divided between its industrial and heavily Russified east, where Yanukovych is strong, and the more nationalistic, Ukrainian-speaking west.
That schism has been aggravated by outside influences. In the past five years the European Union has expanded to Ukraine's borders, while a resurgent Russia under President Vladimir Putin has sought to draw Ukraine into a Moscow-led economic common market.
"We have a lot of geopolitical phobias nowadays," says Dimitri Vydrin, director of the independent Institute of Integration and Development in Kyiv. "Some fear Russia, others fear NATO, and it warps our politics."
Experts say Yushchenko's decision to sack his strongest ally, Tymoshenko, last September caused deep bitterness and may have permanently split the ranks of orange supporters.
Yanukovych, by contrast, has kept his team together and scored political points from Ukraine's sharp economic decline over the past year as well as the disarray among pro-western politicians.
"To many people the unity of Yanukovych's forces looks preferable to the constant intrigues and splits in the orange camp," says Vydrin.
A gas blockade of Ukraine, launched by Russia in early January over a pricing dispute, also appears to have worked to Yanukovych's advantage.
"To our surprise, our polling shows that a majority of people blamed Yushchenko for the gas conflict," says Paniotto. "It was bad for Yushchenko. If that was one of Russia's aims, they succeeded."
If no party wins a convincing majority in Sunday's vote, parliament will have to try to find a workable coalition. But experts say none of the three big groups appears in any mood to compromise, much less unite, with any other.
"I'm afraid we are headed into a period of extended political crisis," says Oleksandr Shushko, research director of the independent Institute for Euro-Atlantic Co-operation in Kyiv.
"But there's no danger of reversing what we accomplished in the Orange Revolution. We're playing by democratic rules now, we're a new country."
http://start.shaw.ca/start/enCA/News...c=w032357A.xml
So it appears that the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, the Red Revolution in Georgia and the revolution in Krygyzstan are all duds so far because they are all still corrupt and they have done anti-democratic actions.
America must be proud. I am sure Putin is.
