Is the 'China threat' real?
- Thread starter I think not
- Start date
There's been a lot of talk about their use of espionage. Australias had an issue with that lately and there was an ex CSIS member on the radio this morning talking on the same subject but it was more about their activities in Canada and the States. Most of it was Unorthidox and used more as Economical Espionage, but some of it was the classic "bond" type.
China is a threat military, especially if the French and Germans manage to sell them weapons, something that the British have refused to do.
And economically, it overtook France last year, will overtake the UK this year, will overtake Germany in about 2 year and will eventually overtake the US in about 2040.
And economically, it overtook France last year, will overtake the UK this year, will overtake Germany in about 2 year and will eventually overtake the US in about 2040.
China is the real threat and anyone who doesn't think so needs to get their head examined 
Their a brutal regime and their on a mission to rule the planet.The only counrty thatseems to recognize this is the US.Even down there theirs only a few politicians that see this coming 8O
Their a brutal regime and their on a mission to rule the planet.The only counrty thatseems to recognize this is the US.Even down there theirs only a few politicians that see this coming 8O
mrmom2 said:China is the real threat and anyone who doesn't think so needs to get their head examined
Exactly.
China represents a threat, an opportunity and a challenge.
The threat - is not really militarily. Those focusing on China's military strengh and weapons sales etc are not really paying attention. China does not have and has never (in the modern era) had an expansionist agenda. Since 1948, China has annexed Tibet, attained title to Hong Kong and Maccau via historical lease expirations and maintains claim to Taiwan as a "renagade" province. Beyond that, other than minor border disputes China has not intervened very much in East Asian affairs. In Korea, China only intervened when MacArthur foolishly invaded the North after repelling the intial Northern invasion of South Korea. China is far less a regional hedgemon that the US has been. Even it's strategic nuclear arsenal is small enough to be considered primarily defensive. What many in the west are mistaking as a major Chinese armament program is simply a modernization of its weapons systems. With an army of 75 divisions - any moderate rearming is going to look like a major arms race unless you look at the context. China has no means for force projection (no aircraft carriers, few strategic airlift assets, no long range bombers etc.). It's military is a deterrent and defense oriented. China does not want a military conflict with the west.
China has had many opportunities to militarily intervene in the region and has for the most part taken a pass. China could have inserted itself into the Indonesian crisis a few years ago. With a large ethnic Chinese minority that often bears the brunt of Islamic violence - China had a ready pretext. Likewise in the aftermath of the recent Tsunamis - China confined its aid to monetary aid. No Chinese troops. The pattern is clear - China has no interest in regional expansion.
The one thing that could spark a conflict is Taiwan. This is where the use must tread carefully and use a lot of diplomatic tact (not exactly George Bush's forte). The US must continue to espouse a "one china" policy and make it clear to China that reunification by force is not an option. They must also continue to persuade Taiwan that they can not unilaterally declare indepence.
The opportunity in China stems from it rapidly growing middle class and emerging economic strength. As both a consumer and source of finished goods and raw materials China's growth will fuel world economies for the foreseable future.
Economic liberalization can also lead to political reform. Historically, the middle class and entrepreurial class has not sat by silently once they get real economic power. They will eventurally demand true political power. The challange is to ensure that when the merchant/trader/industrialist classes seize power that China does not turn into a corrupt crony capitalist oligarchy as we have seen in Russia.
The threat - is not really militarily. Those focusing on China's military strengh and weapons sales etc are not really paying attention. China does not have and has never (in the modern era) had an expansionist agenda. Since 1948, China has annexed Tibet, attained title to Hong Kong and Maccau via historical lease expirations and maintains claim to Taiwan as a "renagade" province. Beyond that, other than minor border disputes China has not intervened very much in East Asian affairs. In Korea, China only intervened when MacArthur foolishly invaded the North after repelling the intial Northern invasion of South Korea. China is far less a regional hedgemon that the US has been. Even it's strategic nuclear arsenal is small enough to be considered primarily defensive. What many in the west are mistaking as a major Chinese armament program is simply a modernization of its weapons systems. With an army of 75 divisions - any moderate rearming is going to look like a major arms race unless you look at the context. China has no means for force projection (no aircraft carriers, few strategic airlift assets, no long range bombers etc.). It's military is a deterrent and defense oriented. China does not want a military conflict with the west.
China has had many opportunities to militarily intervene in the region and has for the most part taken a pass. China could have inserted itself into the Indonesian crisis a few years ago. With a large ethnic Chinese minority that often bears the brunt of Islamic violence - China had a ready pretext. Likewise in the aftermath of the recent Tsunamis - China confined its aid to monetary aid. No Chinese troops. The pattern is clear - China has no interest in regional expansion.
The one thing that could spark a conflict is Taiwan. This is where the use must tread carefully and use a lot of diplomatic tact (not exactly George Bush's forte). The US must continue to espouse a "one china" policy and make it clear to China that reunification by force is not an option. They must also continue to persuade Taiwan that they can not unilaterally declare indepence.
The opportunity in China stems from it rapidly growing middle class and emerging economic strength. As both a consumer and source of finished goods and raw materials China's growth will fuel world economies for the foreseable future.
Economic liberalization can also lead to political reform. Historically, the middle class and entrepreurial class has not sat by silently once they get real economic power. They will eventurally demand true political power. The challange is to ensure that when the merchant/trader/industrialist classes seize power that China does not turn into a corrupt crony capitalist oligarchy as we have seen in Russia.
The real challenge with China is competition for resources and impact on the planet of a nation with over a billion people getting the economic clout to purchase SUVs, air conditioners, hari driers and all the latest consumer goodies. If China industrializes in the same manner the western world did the planet simply can not sustain it.
Oil and energy are tightly bound to this problem. China needs energy to fuel its new economy. They are building dams and nuclear plants as fast as possible. They have invested heavily in Canada's tar sands and natural gas industries - but this is not enough. If a confrontation between the US and China occurs it will not be over territory or world domination by over energy.
Oil and energy are tightly bound to this problem. China needs energy to fuel its new economy. They are building dams and nuclear plants as fast as possible. They have invested heavily in Canada's tar sands and natural gas industries - but this is not enough. If a confrontation between the US and China occurs it will not be over territory or world domination by over energy.
Rand: China closing military gap with U.S.
By Martin Sieff
UPI Senior News Analyst
Jun. 16, 2005 at 9:32PM
China's military capability is catching up with that of the United States according to a Rand Corp. study.
A Rand report quoted by the Russian newspaper Pravda Thursday said the gap was expected to further narrow in the next few years.
Pravda said excerpts from the report drawn up for U.S. intelligence chiefs detailed China's military breakthroughs and development over the past few years.
The newspaper said the report had probably been leaked to the public to increase support for higher budget allocations for the Pentagon and U.S. intelligence agencies.
Pravda also said publication of parts of the report had sent a warning to China to take more vigorous action to raise the value of its national currency, the yuan. It said the published reports may also have been meant to derail the European Union's plans to lift its arms embargo on China.
www.washtimes.com . . .
By Martin Sieff
UPI Senior News Analyst
Jun. 16, 2005 at 9:32PM
China's military capability is catching up with that of the United States according to a Rand Corp. study.
A Rand report quoted by the Russian newspaper Pravda Thursday said the gap was expected to further narrow in the next few years.
Pravda said excerpts from the report drawn up for U.S. intelligence chiefs detailed China's military breakthroughs and development over the past few years.
The newspaper said the report had probably been leaked to the public to increase support for higher budget allocations for the Pentagon and U.S. intelligence agencies.
Pravda also said publication of parts of the report had sent a warning to China to take more vigorous action to raise the value of its national currency, the yuan. It said the published reports may also have been meant to derail the European Union's plans to lift its arms embargo on China.
www.washtimes.com . . .
Once their economy starts grabbing hold, they will increase it. Right now the way I see it they are building their infrastructure. We'll see in about 25 years what they do, if any of us are around.
China the freedom loving country they won't do anything to the rest of the world yea right and i got some great swamp land for ya 8O There comunists they believe in total control :roll:
RE: Is the 'China threat'
China is going to be the economic (and military) super power. Lots of potential to make money in China. So we really need to get on board now.
China is going to be the economic (and military) super power. Lots of potential to make money in China. So we really need to get on board now.
Re: RE: Is the 'China threat'
China is a huge defence spender. It is now the second-largest defence spender in the world, spending more than the UK, France and Japan combined, who are themselves, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th biggest defence spenders of the G8 respectively.
The Chinese army is also larger than the US army, with more than 1 million soldiers.
dan_c22 said:
China is a huge defence spender. It is now the second-largest defence spender in the world, spending more than the UK, France and Japan combined, who are themselves, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th biggest defence spenders of the G8 respectively.
The Chinese army is also larger than the US army, with more than 1 million soldiers.
China's new consumers get a taste for luxury goods
A sales boom is attracting foreign manufacturers to a market expected to grow to $3.7 trillion in 10 years
Jonathan Watts in the Salon de Chocolat in Beijing
Saturday June 18, 2005
The Guardian
Yang Jing, a pastry chef with a sweet tooth, grins as he pops into his mouth one of his most sumptuous creations: a ball of luxury French chocolate, mixed with cream, vodka and ginger and decorated with flakes of real gold.
The 32-year-old could hardly have imagined such luxury while he was growing up in a Beijing of ration coupons and food kiosks. Yang had to wait until he was eight - just after China opened up its economy - to get his first taste of chocolate.
Now his corpulent figure is hard to equate with the scrawny boy he once was, a transformation that embodies the remarkable consumption habits of the world's most populous nation.
From luxury confectionery and designer clothes to imported beers and expensive cars, Chinese shoppers are buying as they have never bought before.
Sales at restaurants and retail outlets are growing even faster than the spectacular 9% annual expansion of the economy. In the past six years, 400 giant shopping centres, many more than double the size of anything in Britain, have opened throughout the country.
China has overtaken the US in sales of televisions and mobile phones. In the next few years, it will become the biggest market for computers. And a double digit rise in urban incomes has drawn Cartier, Prada and Armani to expand here faster than anywhere else in the world.
The rise in consumption has alarmed dieticians, who say that obesity rates have doubled in 10 years, and environmentalists, who say the planet will be doomed if China's 1.3bn population starts to eat and shop like Americans or Europeans.
But foreign retailers are queueing up to influence the tastes of a still embryonic market. The latest group of proselytisers was a party of luxury chocolate makers from France, Switzerland and Russia, who participated alongside Yang at China's first international chocolate fair.
In the resplendent setting of Beijing's Hyatt hotel, they sought to grab the attention of consumers with a chocolate fashion show, featuring models draped in confectionery, and a row of stalls offering free samples of delicacies that normally sell for £30 to £60 a kilo.
"China is the future of civilisation," said Sylvie Douce, producer of the Salon de Chocolat, which has held annual events in France, the US and Japan since it started 11 years ago.
"In Japan, when we first arrived, they didn't eat much chocolate, but now everyone does. It will be the same here. I want to be here right at the start."
The task of persuading China that it should be sweeter as well as richer has just started. The average consumer eats a kilo (2.2lbs) of confectionery a year - a tenth of the average for developed countries. China's $4.3bn sweet market is dominated by cheap products made by domestic manufacturers such as White Rabbit Creamy Candy Factory and foreign giants such as Mars.
But with sales of chocolate forecast to triple between 1998 and 2008, foreign firms are keen to be the first to control lucrative niches.
Two months ago, Jeff de Bruges, a French luxury chocolate retailer that has 250 outlets worldwide, made its first venture into Asia by opening a shop in Shanghai with a local partner. The manager, Philippe Jamba, said it was a test venture in a market that is still more about potential than current sales.
"We have to tell people what chocolate is about. It is a huge education process."
There is no shortage of willing foreign teachers. Last November, almost 70% of the exhibitors at China's first sweet fair were from foreign companies.
Executives from the world's best known clothing and accessory companies are acutely aware of the potential. "China is certainly the most prominent and most important market we have in front of us," Paolo Fontanelli, chief financial officer for Giorgio Armani, told delegates at a luxury brand conference in Shanghai.
By 2008, his company will more than double its number of outlets in China to 30. Prada expects to have 20 by the end of this year. Cartier has opened seven in the past six months.
Poverty gap
With hundreds of millions of peasants still below the poverty line, China is an unbalanced market. But analysts believe the only way is up. Merrill Lynch estimates that only 30 million people - 2% of the population - can afford luxury goods, but by 2009, China will account for 20% of the world market in such high-end products.
Credit Suisse First Boston forecasts that spending by Chinese consumers will quintuple in the next 10 years to $3.7 trillion (£2.03 trillion) - an increase of 18% a year - compared with 1-3% in mature markets like Japan, the US and Europe.
By 2015, the bank predicts, "Chinese consumers will likely have displaced US consumers as the primary engine of global economic growth."
The government seems keen to encourage the trend, which will help to offset China's huge and politically sensitive trade surplus. After the announcement of a 13% rise in retail sales and a 20% rise in restaurant revenues last month, the central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, said he was happy that Chinese people are spending more because their savings rate - currently 38% of incomes - was "pretty high". It is actually among the highest in the world, far above the US, which has near zero rates of saving.
At the Salon de Chocolat, there were plenty of volunteers willing to splash out.
Liu Ying, 26, a trading company employee, said her income had risen more than 50% in the past few years to 15,000 renminbi (about £1,000) a month. She has used the extra cash to buy a £170 Gucci watch, a £200 Coach bag from Hong Kong, and a £120 necklace from Folli Follie.
Her consumption of international brands is a long way from the values that her parents' generation grew up with during the cultural revolution. But she said they had accepted the change as easily as she had.
"My parents' lives were quite tough, but they are very open-minded," said Liu as she nibbled on a wafer-thin chocolate slice. "As long as I can afford to pay, they don't mind what I buy."
guardian.co.uk
A sales boom is attracting foreign manufacturers to a market expected to grow to $3.7 trillion in 10 years
Jonathan Watts in the Salon de Chocolat in Beijing
Saturday June 18, 2005
The Guardian
Yang Jing, a pastry chef with a sweet tooth, grins as he pops into his mouth one of his most sumptuous creations: a ball of luxury French chocolate, mixed with cream, vodka and ginger and decorated with flakes of real gold.
The 32-year-old could hardly have imagined such luxury while he was growing up in a Beijing of ration coupons and food kiosks. Yang had to wait until he was eight - just after China opened up its economy - to get his first taste of chocolate.
Now his corpulent figure is hard to equate with the scrawny boy he once was, a transformation that embodies the remarkable consumption habits of the world's most populous nation.
From luxury confectionery and designer clothes to imported beers and expensive cars, Chinese shoppers are buying as they have never bought before.
Sales at restaurants and retail outlets are growing even faster than the spectacular 9% annual expansion of the economy. In the past six years, 400 giant shopping centres, many more than double the size of anything in Britain, have opened throughout the country.
China has overtaken the US in sales of televisions and mobile phones. In the next few years, it will become the biggest market for computers. And a double digit rise in urban incomes has drawn Cartier, Prada and Armani to expand here faster than anywhere else in the world.
The rise in consumption has alarmed dieticians, who say that obesity rates have doubled in 10 years, and environmentalists, who say the planet will be doomed if China's 1.3bn population starts to eat and shop like Americans or Europeans.
But foreign retailers are queueing up to influence the tastes of a still embryonic market. The latest group of proselytisers was a party of luxury chocolate makers from France, Switzerland and Russia, who participated alongside Yang at China's first international chocolate fair.
In the resplendent setting of Beijing's Hyatt hotel, they sought to grab the attention of consumers with a chocolate fashion show, featuring models draped in confectionery, and a row of stalls offering free samples of delicacies that normally sell for £30 to £60 a kilo.
"China is the future of civilisation," said Sylvie Douce, producer of the Salon de Chocolat, which has held annual events in France, the US and Japan since it started 11 years ago.
"In Japan, when we first arrived, they didn't eat much chocolate, but now everyone does. It will be the same here. I want to be here right at the start."
The task of persuading China that it should be sweeter as well as richer has just started. The average consumer eats a kilo (2.2lbs) of confectionery a year - a tenth of the average for developed countries. China's $4.3bn sweet market is dominated by cheap products made by domestic manufacturers such as White Rabbit Creamy Candy Factory and foreign giants such as Mars.
But with sales of chocolate forecast to triple between 1998 and 2008, foreign firms are keen to be the first to control lucrative niches.
Two months ago, Jeff de Bruges, a French luxury chocolate retailer that has 250 outlets worldwide, made its first venture into Asia by opening a shop in Shanghai with a local partner. The manager, Philippe Jamba, said it was a test venture in a market that is still more about potential than current sales.
"We have to tell people what chocolate is about. It is a huge education process."
There is no shortage of willing foreign teachers. Last November, almost 70% of the exhibitors at China's first sweet fair were from foreign companies.
Executives from the world's best known clothing and accessory companies are acutely aware of the potential. "China is certainly the most prominent and most important market we have in front of us," Paolo Fontanelli, chief financial officer for Giorgio Armani, told delegates at a luxury brand conference in Shanghai.
By 2008, his company will more than double its number of outlets in China to 30. Prada expects to have 20 by the end of this year. Cartier has opened seven in the past six months.
Poverty gap
With hundreds of millions of peasants still below the poverty line, China is an unbalanced market. But analysts believe the only way is up. Merrill Lynch estimates that only 30 million people - 2% of the population - can afford luxury goods, but by 2009, China will account for 20% of the world market in such high-end products.
Credit Suisse First Boston forecasts that spending by Chinese consumers will quintuple in the next 10 years to $3.7 trillion (£2.03 trillion) - an increase of 18% a year - compared with 1-3% in mature markets like Japan, the US and Europe.
By 2015, the bank predicts, "Chinese consumers will likely have displaced US consumers as the primary engine of global economic growth."
The government seems keen to encourage the trend, which will help to offset China's huge and politically sensitive trade surplus. After the announcement of a 13% rise in retail sales and a 20% rise in restaurant revenues last month, the central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, said he was happy that Chinese people are spending more because their savings rate - currently 38% of incomes - was "pretty high". It is actually among the highest in the world, far above the US, which has near zero rates of saving.
At the Salon de Chocolat, there were plenty of volunteers willing to splash out.
Liu Ying, 26, a trading company employee, said her income had risen more than 50% in the past few years to 15,000 renminbi (about £1,000) a month. She has used the extra cash to buy a £170 Gucci watch, a £200 Coach bag from Hong Kong, and a £120 necklace from Folli Follie.
Her consumption of international brands is a long way from the values that her parents' generation grew up with during the cultural revolution. But she said they had accepted the change as easily as she had.
"My parents' lives were quite tough, but they are very open-minded," said Liu as she nibbled on a wafer-thin chocolate slice. "As long as I can afford to pay, they don't mind what I buy."
guardian.co.uk
RE: Is the 'China threat'
As China continues to evolve, it will have to undergo some internal changes. Along with increased trade will have to come more open communication with the rest of the world...and Chinese citizens will want more and more.
It will be interesting to watch....with over a billion people China's needs are many...and an army of one million won't be able to contain an more educated,outward looking citizenry.
As China continues to evolve, it will have to undergo some internal changes. Along with increased trade will have to come more open communication with the rest of the world...and Chinese citizens will want more and more.
It will be interesting to watch....with over a billion people China's needs are many...and an army of one million won't be able to contain an more educated,outward looking citizenry.
We are in the process of orering items for the non-profit I am involved in. The Chinese company we contacted outbid an American one 5 to 1.
How can you say no to that?
How can you say no to that?