Poll indicates French may vote "NO" to EU Constitu

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POLL INDICATES FRENCH MAY VOTE NO TO EU CONSTITUTION
Received Thursday, 17 March 2005 21:59:00 GMT
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PARIS, March 17 (AFP) - For the first time a majority of French say they plan to vote 'no' in the national referendum on the European constitution to be held in May, according to a poll to be published Friday in the daily Le Parisien.

According to the poll, carried out by the CSA institute, 51 percent intend to vote 'no' and 49 percent 'yes'.

Less than half of French voters are likely to vote in the May 29 referendum, with 53 percent of respondents saying they will abstain or cast blank ballots.

The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday among a representative sample of 802 over the age of 18.

The margin of error were not immediately available. The latest poll is likely to worry French President Jacques Chirac, who has been campaigning hard for a yes vote.

But the French electorate, angry over economic and labour reforms imposed by the conservative government and wary over Chirac's push to have Turkey become an EU member in the future, is in a volatile mood.

Street protests have been gathering pace in recent weeks and reached a crescendo last Thursday with a crippling national strike in a scene reminiscent of demonstrations in 1995 that eventually brought down the previous centre-right government.

With public support slipping away and the prospect of France -- one of the founding states of the EU, and its third-biggest economy -- becoming the country that torpedoes the EU constitution, Chirac had brought forward plans for the referendum.

Late last month, both houses of the French parliament held a rare joint session in the palace of Versailles to modify France's 1958 constitution so that the referendum on the EU charter can go ahead.

The main parties, Chirac's ruling Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) and the opposition Socialists, have officially backed a 'yes' vote, though both have dissident members who say they will join the Communist Party and the far right in voting against.

Former EU commission president Jacques Delors warned of a "political cataclysm" in France in the case of a 'no' vote, in an interview to be published Friday by the newspaper Le Progres.

"If the 'no' prevails, France will be in for a political cataclysm," he said. "In Europe, it will open a very serious crisis which will slow down European construction, to the disadvantage of France," he said.

Delors said he was opposed to calling a referendum to adopt the constitution as a vote by parliament "is as important democratically as a referendum".

The constitution aims to streamline decision-making and forge a more coherent joint foreign policy in the European Union, which is finding its current procedures -- often requiring the unanimity of members -- unwieldy following the bloc's expansion last year from 15 to 25 states.

France and another nine EU member states are to call their voters out to decide the matter. Denmark announced late last month that it would hold its plebiscite on September 27.

Britain -- whose citizens are the most eurosceptic in the European Union -- has yet to announce a date for its referendum, reluctantly agreed to by Prime Minister Tony Blair, though it looks likely to take place in the first half of 2006.

The remaining 15 EU members have decided to ratify the charter through their parliaments, without putting it directly before voters -- a choice that has generated some resentment, particularly in Germany, the EU's biggest economy and biggest contributor to EU coffers.

Hungary, Lithuania and Slovenia have already ratified the constitution via parliamentary vote.