Yushchenko Wins Ukraine Poll

[Rick van Opbergen]

Yushchenko wins Ukraine poll

Western-leaning opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko has taken an unbeatable lead and claimed victory in Ukraine's re-run presidential election.

Mr Yushchenko has hailed the beginning of a new era in the former Soviet republic, pledging to align Ukraine, which has been poorly managed for years. Ukraine bears huge economic potential, with central and western Europe fanning fears in neighbouring Russia that its "little brother" will move out of its traditional influence.

With more than 90 per cent of the ballot counted, the Central Election Commission says Mr Yushchenko has an unassailable lead with almost 54 per cent of the votes against just above 42 per cent for Moscow-backed Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich. The results suggested Mr Yushchenko had won by a big enough margin to carry out a major overhaul of what he sees as years of corrupt government. "I want to say this is a victory of the Ukrainian people, the Ukrainian nation," Mr Yushchenko said. "Today we became free."

'A new epoch'

The re-run was forced when the Supreme Court upheld charges of vote-rigging in a November 21 election that Mr Yanukovich won. "This is the beginning of a new epoch, the beginning of a new great democracy," Mr Yushchenko said. He later addressed tens of thousands of supporters in Kiev's Independence Square, where earlier fireworks had lit up the night sky when exit polls showed the opposition leader winning.

"My first thanks is to you," he said. "The people proved their power. They rebelled against probably the most cynical regime in eastern Europe." But the man who has spawned a new industry for orange merchandise, the colour of his campaign, faces a struggle to sell his vision for Ukraine to the Russian-speaking industrialised east, which looked to be firmly behind Yanukovich.

Some there are fearful Mr Yushchenko's favoured Western economic policies would mean they would lose jobs and state subsidies. They say they will protest against his victory. However, the leading eastern town of Donetsk was quiet after the poll.

Strategic partner

Analysts say the vote showed a deep-seated dislike for outgoing President Leonid Kuchma and his Government, which is widely blamed for corrupt management of the economy during a decade in power that has left most Ukrainians mired in poverty.

Mr Yushchenko, who served stints as prime minister and central bank governor under Mr Kuchma, before becoming his political foe, has promised to modernise the economy and boost links with the European Union which now sits on its borders. But he has been careful to refer to Russia as a strategic partner.

Ukraine relies on Russia for energy. In last month's election, Russian President Vladimir Putin openly backed Mr Yanukovich, the candidate he saw as most likely to maintain close ties with Moscow. But as Mr Yanukovich's fortunes have waned, Mr Putin has appeared to soften towards Mr Yushchenko, who has promised to make Russia his first foreign trip if he becomes president.

A glum-looking Mr Yanukovich has told reporters he will lead a "tough opposition" if he lost the election. His aides hinted he was ready for defeat. One of Mr Yanukovich's aides says the Prime Minister might challenge the election result. "If we treat this mathematically, [Mr Yanukovich] will probably come second," the aide said.

About 12,000 foreign observers monitored the vote in the country of 47 million people. They are due to give their verdict tomorrow. Early indications suggest the poll was relatively clean. The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe's head, Bruce George, says the polling stations appeared to be well organised.

source: ABC News

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Yushchenko Wins Ukrai

Now that the guy that I was cheering for appears to have gained the position he was after I keep thinking about Lech Walesa and Boris Yeltsin.

I hope to hell this turns out better.

 

[Rick van Opbergen]

Me too. Like the rest of the Ukraine I guess.

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Yushchenko Wins Ukrai

I'm not convinced that caution ever transmits through the euphoria of having won for those in the thow of things. They're still voting for Nelson Mandela in South Africa and he isn't even on the ballot.

The world is full of examples of people who were right and needed to win, but couldn't quite manage the job when they got there. There is a huge gap betwen a revolutionary and a leader. I've yet to be convinced that Yushchenko can lead.

I also worry about the split in Ukraine. You can pretty much take a ruler and draw a line on a map. On one side they speak Russian and pull finite resources out of the dirt, on the other they speak Ukrainian and produce renewable resources and have pretensions to producing technical products. There's a huge gap between the two realities there, and I'm not sure that Yushchenko can reconcile them.

 

[Rick van Opbergen]

The world is full of examples of people who were right and needed to win, but couldn't quite manage the job when they got there. There is a huge gap betwen a revolutionary and a leader. I've yet to be convinced that Yushchenko can lead.

True indeed. The Netherlands experienced that with the LPF, List Pim Fortuyn, which gained a lot of seats in the parliament two years ago. They made a mess of it though, and the parliament fell. People thought they would make a change in politics, but they didn't, they even made it more messy.

I also worry about the split in Ukraine. You can pretty much take a ruler and draw a line on a map. On one side they speak Russian and pull finite resources out of the dirt, on the other they speak Ukrainian and produce renewable resources and have pretensions to producing technical products. There's a huge gap between the two realities there, and I'm not sure that Yushchenko can reconcile them.

Yes, I have heard the same. They say that split is also appliable for whom the people have voted for. The majority of people west of the line voted for Yuschenko, while the majority of the people east of the line voted for Yanukovitch. Do you think that there is a realistic possibility the Ukraine will split in two pieces?

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Yushchenko Wins Ukrai

I don't if there will be a split, Ricky. I've conflicting commentary on it. If there is, it's likely to come in the form of a civil war with Russia backing the east. That's what worries me.

 

[Paranoid Dot Calm]

I believe there is a tacit agreement between the U.S. and Russia.

A new election was held, but the US has agreed not to interfere and not to invite the Ukraine into NATO.

There is no way that Putin could stand back and allow this to take place. It's all about oil! It's all about moving the oil from the Caspian Sea. Because the Caspian Sea is land-locked, the oil has to be piped overland.

On the face of it .... an election was held. But that is all.
Russia doesn't care if Ukraine is part of European Union, but not NATO. Would we Canadians sit back and watch Newfoundland or Quebec join the U.S.? Would we agree to allow the US to fund Newfoundland politicians and who were talking about separation?
Putin, no doubt has told the US to back off.

It was not long ago that Putin nationalized the biggest oil company in Russia. We know who owned it. Putin just walked in and took it from them .... just like Hitler, except no violence.

It's now or never for Washington
By Mark Almond
December 04, 2004
http://fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/120204_now_never.shtml

Caspian Sea Region
August 2003
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/caspian.html

Caucasus Region
October 2003
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/caucasus.html

Baltic Sea Region
January 2004
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/baltics.html



Calm

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Yushchenko Wins Ukrai

It's always about the oil, Calm. That's been true since about halfway through WWI when the strategic importance of feeding the new war machines became all to apparent.

The question in the Ukraine is how far Moscow is willing to go to protect its interests and whether the US will try to counteract that. I doubt the US will go in with military, but I'd bet that the CIA "advisors" are already in place. Russia will, if given an opportunity, come in with the military.

Russia is putting up military bases in the stans to counteract US influence there already. That's oil and minerals that will likely go to China too, so the question becomes who controls and profits from it.

Iran is also very much in play here. Beijing and Moscow both need Iran's oil, the US wants to control the entire region.

The Ukraine could be the trigger for many things to start happening in a hurry.

 

[Paranoid Dot Calm]

Hey! Reverend Blair

That was well said.

About the CIA and using agents on the ground in other countries.

Remember in Russia fell and we found out that all the stories we had Knowledge about them having all the technology and stuff ... CIA reports? And the fact that the CIA was wrong with their assessments? They were wrong for 50 years.

Then we got the same trip happening with the claims against Iraq.

The CIA investigates nothing. They just make public claims and await the world to react to them. They just stand up and say we know everything and they know nothing.
It's a pretty good game, eh?

The CIA knows that the US needs oil. There is little doubt about that. But, I think all the crappy reports they have publicly issued since time began were just for media consumption.

The CIA is just an advertising agency.
Somebody to sell us the ideas for arms buildup.
Some faceless agency to make "slam-dunk" cases to justify another 300 billion in military spending and job security/profits for the elite.

Calm

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Yushchenko Wins Ukrai

CIA advisors are very real. A lot of them are subcontractors...mercenaries really...and their job is teach people dirty tricks. Everything from basic warfare techniques and strategy to how torture people. They seed a lot of disinformation, act as bagmen for millions of dollars in cash, smuggle drugs, and overthrow inconvenient governments.

I doubt the CIA has much interest in gathering intelligence at all, at least the kind they talk about on the news. That's the biggest piece of disinformation out there. The CIA has been a dirty tricks agency since its inception, and they don't limit those tricks to the named enemy of the day.

 

[Rick van Opbergen]

I don't if there will be a split, Ricky. I've conflicting commentary on it. If there is, it's likely to come in the form of a civil war with Russia backing the east. That's what worries me.

Well it was also not my intention to put words in your words about a possible split, it was sort of a independent statement, just to know your opinion about rumours about a possible split somewhere in the future.

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Yushchenko Wins Ukrai

The thing is that I just don't know. I wasn't surprised when I heard that Russian tanks were on on their way to quash the demonstrations, but they never showed up. I would be surprised if there was an armed uprising by pro-Russian forces in Ukraine and Moscow didn't back it.

There's a lot of behind the scenes manoevering going on right now, not just over Ukraine, between Moscow and Washington.

 

[Rick van Opbergen]

I see. What I was wondering is: what effect will this have on lets say the economic ties between the Ukraine and Russia? I think it's more than logical that Yuschenko will try to form more economic ties with the West at the cost of Russia. Russia is gradually losing his former (economic, as well as military etc.) allies: the Baltic states have joined the EU; the Ukraine seems to be heading towards a more Western point of view; many other Eastern European countries, ranging from Poland to Hungary, former members of the Warsaw Pact, are now part of the EU. And what about the Caucasus? Both Armenia and Georgia are on their way of becoming more and more independent from Russia (economically speaking especially; Armenia already from the fall of the Soviet Union, Georgia after the Revolution of a year ago). And what are the chances left of Russia in Central Asia? American and Chinese influences in the area is growing. What will be the effect on this for Russia in the future?

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Yushchenko Wins Ukrai

And the Russian government is opening military bases in Central Asia, has seized control of the biggest oil company in the region, has insisted on holding onto Chechnya, is involved in Iran, etc.

I don't think that Russia can prevent the westernisation of its former client states, or even itself in the end, but I do think think that it will continue to try. They are rebuilding their arsenal and have been moving away from the US on key issues.

The energy-rich areas are of interest not just to Russia, but to China and the EU. Meanwhile there are continuing mumblings from the economic world about how much trouble the US economy is really in and China has been less than helpful cooperative in helping the US to deal with that. The EU has, to a large extent, also been unhelpful in aiding the US with its economic problems.

So far neither China nor the EU has done anything to actively harm the US economy, but both seem perfectly willing to let it go down the toilet.

Now back to Ukraine. The battle is really for resources. Russia doesn't mind paying market price for Ukrainian wheat, but oil drives economies. Meanwhile the US has been pissing off the world by sucking up a little over a quarter of the world's energy and refusing, even actively undermining, the Kyoto agreement and refusing to adopt alternative energy sources.

The EU would rather see the oil go to China, where an increasing number of their cheap goods from, than to the US. That kind of leads to a conflict. Western Europe wants Ukraine to westernize, but not if the US has control of the oil. Europe needs the oil and if they can't have it they'd rather see it go to China. If China can't have it, they'd rather see it go to Eastern Europe to possibly drive an economic recovery there. Beyond that, they'd rather see it stay in the ground. Western Europe only wants a westernized Ukraine if the US doesn't get control of the oil because there is no benefit to them at all if that happens.

What we're seeing is a political end-game for resources. Nobody really cares about democracy or the Ukraine. They only care about Russia because it has military power in the area and can be used as a foil for the US.

That's why I say I don't know what is going to happen. Too many countries have a vested interest and what gets said in public (We all support Yushhenko and democracy) isn't likely to be what's said in private.