Ever heard of the philosopher Karl Popper? He said that what you are describing can be seen as pseudoscience. He always used people like Karl Marx or Sigmund Freud to explain what he meant. Imagine, you are a Marxist, and you can not stand how this world is unequally divided by the horrible Capitalist system. Everytime you read the newspaper, watch the news or walk through town, you do observations which base your theory. However, that is a very subjective approach. Whereas a Marxist can use these observations to point at the great unequality there is, a Capitalist can as well use some of its examples to base his theory that Capitalism can bring a lot of advantages to certain people (whereas the Marxist believes it are disadvantages). So, observations can be very subjective. You bring a theory into this thread which states: Margaret Hassan was not killed by Iraqi insurgents, but CIA operatives. You do certain observations, and link those with certain subjective foreknowledge. However, nothing is certain until you have excluded the possibility your theory is not true, by making (to a certain extent, objective) theories against your basic-theory, which are than rejected. But so far, we are only at the beginning of an assumption, and because of that, basing your statement can not be done by "... one can certainly do the math".