In 2016 we have the echoes of 1914

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2016 has been a momentous year. The UK's vote to leave the European Union and the election of Donald Trump confounded expectations, while the wars in Syria and Yemen caused more bloodshed. BBC Radio 4's Today programme asked top historians which year in history 2016 most resembled. Margaret MacMillan is reluctantly reminded of 1914...

Margaret MacMillan: The echoes of 1914

By Margaret MacMillan, Historian
BBC News
19 December 2016

The events of 1914 were eventually overshadowed by the outbreak of World War One

2016 has been a momentous year. The UK's vote to leave the European Union and the election of Donald Trump confounded expectations, while the wars in Syria and Yemen caused more bloodshed. BBC Radio 4's Today programme asked top historians which year in history 2016 most resembled. Margaret MacMillan is reluctantly reminded of 1914.

History does not neatly repeat itself but, oh, there are so often echoes and rhymes.

Some years - and it always depends a bit on who and where you are - slide by without fuss, unremarked.

Others - 1939, 1989, or going further back the 1789 of the French Revolution - do stick in our memories as earthquakes do.

So what is 2016 and what might it remind us of?

Herbert Asquith (front row, second from left) was British prime minister in 1914

I wish I could stop, but I find myself thinking of 1914.

The world then had seemed so stable, so manageable.

Crises - political, social, economic, military - came and went but "they", bankers, statesmen, politicians, always managed them in the end.

Yes, there were grumblings - from the working classes or women, or those who were losing their livelihoods because of free trade or mechanisation.

George Bernard Shaw's Pygmalion had its debut on the London stage in April 1914

And there were some strong emotions about: fears of rapid change, passionate nationalisms that meant love of one's own country and hatred of others.

Ominous in retrospect because we know what happened. But at the time there was a complacency - it would surely all work out all right.

That confidence was dangerous because it meant that people didn't take the warning signs seriously enough.

I wish I could stop making the comparisons.

Events of 1914

Before the outbreak of war eclipsed all other events, there were a few interesting moments - the first colour feature film was shown in the UK in April, and George Bernard Shaw's play Pygmalion had its London debut

In Parliament, the dominant issue for much of the year was how home rule in Ireland would work

Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated on 28 June, triggering a series of reactions that would provoke World War One

Britain declared war on Germany on 4 August. The day before, Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey declared: "The lamps are going out all over Europe; we shall not see them lit again in our lifetime."

Margaret MacMillan is the Warden of St Antony's College and a professor of international history at the University of Oxford.

Margaret MacMillan: The echoes of 1914 - BBC News

 

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The Law and Justice Party rode to power on a pledge to drain the swamp of Polish politics and roll back the legacy of the previous administration. One year later, its patriotic revolution, the party proclaims, has cleaned house and brought God and country back to Poland.

Opponents, however, see the birth of a neo-Dark Age

In the land of Law and Justice, anti-intellectualism is king. Polish scientists are aghast at proposed curriculum changes in a new education bill that would downplay evolution theory and climate change and add hours for “patriotic” history lessons. In a Facebook chat, a top equal rights official mused that Polish hotels should not be forced to provide service to black or gay customers. After the official stepped down for unrelated reasons, his successor rejected an international convention to combat violence against women because it appeared to argue against traditional gender roles.

Over the weekend, Warsaw convulsed in street protests amid allegations that the Law and Justice party had illegally forced through a budget bill even as it soughtto restrict media access to Parliament.

Cheered on by religious conservatives, the new government has defunded public assistance for in vitro fertilization treatments. To draft new sexual-education classes in schools, it tapped a contraceptives opponent who argues that condom use increases the risk of cancer in women. The government is proffering a law that critics say could soon be used to limit opposition protests.

Yet nothing has shocked liberals more than this: After a year in power, Law and Justice is still by far the most popular political party in Poland. It rides atop opinion polls at roughly 36 percent — more than double the popularity of the ousted Civic Platform party.

“We are living in this post-truth environment where you can say and do anything and people don’t seem to care,” said Jacek Kucharczyk, president of the Warsaw-based Institute of Public Affairs.

The new government is also skeptical of the Paris climate change agreement to cut carbon emissions and has pulled support for Polish wind and solar farms. At the same time, it is pumping more money into coal.

“Who really knows what is causing global warming?” Pawel said. “And Poland needs the coal industry.”

Maria was always more concerned with the spread of liberal values, which Law and Justice has, she said, rightly nipped in the bud. There is no more talk in Poland, for instance, of offering any legal rights to same-sex couples. Earlier this year, the office of a lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender group in Warsaw was badly vandalized. Police never caught the perpetrators.

“Homosexuality was quiet before, then they tried to normalize it,” she said. “You don’t see that happening now.”

Are they concerned about allegations the new government is distracting the public as it chips away at Polish democracy?

“No,” she said. “I think they’re just cleaning house.”

“I can’t believe it’s 2016 and we’re still talking about whether to teach evolution,” she said, shaking her head. “Where is all this going?

I’m afraid.”

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...-11e6-92e8-c07f4f671da4_story.html?tid=pm_pop

 

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I find it refreshing to see a party that's not been gullible enough to fall for the Great Global Warming Con.

 

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Andrew Roberts: 2016's parallels with the revolutions of 1848

By Andrew Roberts, Historian
BBC News
20 December 2016

In 1848 a revolution in France overthrew King Louis-Philippe, and a mob broke into the Tuileries Palace in Paris

2016 has been a momentous year. The UK's Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump confounded the expectations, while the wars in Syria and Yemen caused more bloodshed. BBC Radio 4's Today programme asked top historians for their assessment of the year.

The nearest historical equivalent for the year 2016 is 1848, when a series of revolutions broke out one after the other, many of which were similar to each other but each of which was also subtly different, according to local circumstances.

Chancellor Prince Klemens von Metternich escaped a revolution in Vienna dressed as a washerwoman

In 1848 a revolution in France overthrew King Louis-Philippe and the July Monarchy, forcing the king into exile.

The mob broke into the Tuileries Palace in Paris and the message was picked up in Vienna, where the Chancellor, Prince Klemens von Metternich, had to escape from the city dressed as a washerwoman.

Similarly, the example of the shock news of Brexit provided Americans with the example that establishments could be overthrown.

A popular revolt in Colombia succeeded in voting down a peace deal with Farc rebels in October 2016

With similar but subtly different popular revolts succeeding in Colombia in 2016, where a peace deal with the narco-terrorist organisation Farc was voted down by the people, and in Italy, where an unelected prime minister was forced to resign after losing a constitutional referendum by 60% to 40%, the populist nature of the revolt was underlined.

Just as in 1848, the European revolutions were halted at the borders of Britain, which had already extended its franchise, so in 2016 the ultra-right was thankfully defeated in the Austrian elections and probably soon will be in France, too.

Brexit, which is very different from the Trump phenomenon as it is in favour of free-trade and free markets, is likely to be the longest-lasting result of the 2016 uprisings, but the message does not seem to have been heard in Brussels which, like Moscow, also escaped revolution in 1848 though, of course, not forever.

Other events in 1848

24 January - California Gold Rush - James W Marshall finds gold at Sutter's Mill in Coloma, California
11 July - London's Waterloo Station opens
23 July - Battle of Custoza - Italian War of Independence starts
29 July - Great Famine: Young Irelander Rebellion - an unsuccessful nationalist revolt against British rule put down by police in Ireland
1 November - The first medical school for women opens in Boston, Massachusetts
19 December - Emily Bronte (above) dies

Andrew Roberts is a British historian and journalist. He is a visiting professor at the Department of War Studies, King's College London and a Lehrman Institute Distinguished Lecturer at the New York Historical Society.

Andrew Roberts: 2016's parallels with the revolutions of 1848 - BBC News

 

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Anne Curry: Brexit and the Treaty of Troyes

By Anne Curry, Historian
BBC News
21 December 2016

King Henry V proposes marriage to Catherine of Valois to cement the Treaty of Troyes

2016 has been a momentous year. The UK's vote to leave the European Union and the election of Donald Trump confounded expectations, while the wars in Syria and Yemen caused more bloodshed. BBC Radio 4's Today programme asked top historians which year in history 2016 most resembled. Anne Curry reflects on similarities between the Brexit referendum and 1420, when England sought reassurance it would never be ruled by France.

King Henry V was King of England from 1413 to 1422

"I love France so well that I will not part with a village of it. I will have it all mine."

Henry V's words may be Shakespeare's invention but they sum up neatly the events of my chosen year.

King Henry V weds Catherine of Valois in 1420, a union that was short-lived

On 21 May, in a treaty sealed in the city of Troyes, the kings of England were recognised by the French king, Charles VI, as the rightful inheritors of the throne of France.

Once Charles died, England and France would have the same king in perpetuity.

The treaty laid down that all divisions, hatreds and wars between the two realms and their peoples should cease, and be replaced by peace, affection, mutual agreement and stable friendship forever more.

King Charles VI was also known as Charles the Mad

The history of Europe thenceforward would have surely been quite different had this treaty proved longer-lasting.

At first everything seemed to be in its favour.

The closeness of the kingdoms was reinforced by Henry's marriage to Charles's daughter, Catherine, a fortnight later.

Within 18 months she had done her queenly duty by giving birth at Windsor to a son.

Henry VI was King of England from 1422 to 1461 and again from 1470 to 1471

In the meantime, and in accordance with the treaty, Henry V ruled France as regent for his father-in-law, gaining respect for his good government even from the French, but he died a few weeks before Charles in 1422, leaving the nine-month-old Henry VI as king of the double monarchy of England and France.

Even in 1420, however, there were doubts. By accepting Henry V as his heir, Charles had disinherited his own son.

Many French doubted that any ruler had the right to disrupt the natural succession.

Henry VI holding Parliament

In England, MPs were not certain that the Treaty of Troyes was a good thing.

In December they asked for reassurance that England would never be subject to France. Not quite Brexit, but close?

Prof Anne Curry is the dean of the Faculty of Humanities at the University of Southampton. She is a medieval historian with special interests in the Hundred Years War and, more specifically, Agincourt.

Anne Curry: Brexit and the Treaty of Troyes - BBC News

 

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Peter Frankopan: The events of 1498 changed our world

By Peter Frankopan, Historian
BBC News
23 December 2016

1498 was a pivotal year, with Vasco da Gama opening up trade routes with India and South East Asia

2016 has been a momentous year. BBC Radio 4's Today programme asked top historians whether there were parallels with years gone by.

For many, the world of 2016 has felt strange, unfamiliar and threatening. Brexit, the election of Donald Trump, the refugee crisis, the horror of Aleppo, and fear of religious and political fundamentalism have all been unsettling.

Set those alongside the attempted coup this summer in Turkey, the re-emergence of Iran, Putin's geopolitical chess-playing, and worries about the buoyancy of China's economy and its growing ambitions along the Silk Roads, and it is not surprising that this year has felt like change is all around us.

In 1492 Christopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic in ships like these

It's nothing compared to the late 15th Century.

In 1492, Christopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic, claiming to have found untold riches and the gates of Paradise itself.

Although his initial pickings were meagre, it was not long before the gold and silver of the Aztec and Inca world were flooding back to Europe.

That was important.

Diary of Portuguese explorer Vasco da Gama, whose travels made Europe the heart of global trading

But the really decisive moment came in 1498, when Vasco da Gama rounded the southern tip of Africa and opened up trade routes with the Gulf, India and eventually beyond into South East Asia.

Europe was transformed from being at the wrong end of the major global trade routes to being at their heart geographically, economically and strategically.

Never before had the transformation of fortunes been so profound and so fast.

For the first time in history, Europe became the centre of the world.

And Europe's own centre of gravity shifted too, to the west and to the north.

The shockwaves of change were keenly felt at the time.

It was feared Venice was doomed once the new sea routes were discovered

One loud voice in Venice told all who would listen that the discovery of new routes across the seas meant nothing less than the end for that city.

Some rubbed their hands with glee, rejoicing that Venice would surely sink back into the swamp from which it had risen.

It was the beginning of the end for the old order. That gloomy prognosis was broadly right.

Venice never had it so good again.

Western Europe rose at the expense of the East - and it was not long before its tentacles sprawled around the world.

The consequences - and the rewards - were immense.

What followed over the next four centuries was nothing less than global domination as empires were built that spanned continents.

I think that when we look back at 2016 in years to come, it will not be seen as anything like as pivotal a moment as 1498 - though much depends on decisions taken in the next year or two in Europe, the US, Russia, Iran, China and the rest of Asia.

The roots of what we have seen this year did not form in the past 12 months.

That alone is important to recognise. But studying history teaches you that change is normal - and its march cannot be stopped.

Events in 1498

20 May - Portuguese explorer Vasco da Gama arrives at Calicut, India, becoming the first European to reach India by sea
21 June - Jews are expelled from Nuremberg, Bavaria, by Emperor Maximilian
26 June - Toothbrush invented in China using boar bristles
7 July - Emperor Maximilian I establishes choir of Imperial Chapel
31 July - Christopher Columbus (above), on his third voyage, discovers the island of Trinidad
14 August - Christopher Columbus becomes the first European to visit what is now Venezuela

Peter Frankopan is a senior research fellow at Worcester College, Oxford, and director of the Oxford Centre for Byzantine Research.

Peter Frankopan: The events of 1498 changed our world - BBC News