What the coming months might hold for Brexit Britain

Blackleaf

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There have been two great democratic moments in post-war British politics. The first was in the 1945 General Election when victory for the Labour Party under Clement Attlee swept away the old British establishment and brought in a new era of social democracy.

The second is today. Just as the old establishment was swept aside in 1945, we have seen a popular revolution against a bankrupt political class.

The nature of this revolution is still not properly understood by politicians at Westminster where the result is being treated with horror and scorn.

Already some European leaders are demanding a referendum in their own countries. We have everything to gain from presenting an agenda for a better Europe.

Our message should be: No European people should have to accept the extinction of national democracy. No European people should have to accept mass unemployment and savage deflation — or massive extra taxation — to prop up the euro. No European people should be obliged to accept indefinite immigration, or to accept the continued failure and waste built into the Common Agricultural Policy and the fisheries policy and a host of other EU boondoggles. No European people need accept the folly of an EU army and the pretensions of an EU foreign policy.

On this basis, June 23 will go down as one of the great democratic moments in British history — and celebrated for centuries to come.

Carney sacked, Lord Farage and bye-bye Scotland. Oh, and a brand new party! PETER OBORNE looks into his crystal ball to see what the coming months might hold


By Peter Oborne For The Daily Mail
25 June 2016
Daily Mail

There have been two great democratic moments in post-war British politics. The first was in the 1945 General Election when victory for the Labour Party under Clement Attlee swept away the old British establishment and brought in a new era of social democracy.

The second is today. Just as the old establishment was swept aside in 1945, we have seen a popular revolution against a bankrupt political class.

The nature of this revolution is still not properly understood by politicians at Westminster where the result is being treated with horror and scorn.

It is a revolution by ordinary British people against a grasping political class which gave us Black Wednesday, the Iraq War and the financial crash of 2008. Essentially, this is a revolt by the provinces against London and the poor against the rich.


'More than 40 per cent of Labour voters supported Brexit — even though less than 5 per cent of Labour MPs did. I'd expect Prime Minister Johnson to offer a hand to Labour in the hope of forming a national government'

We are likely to see seismic changes in the British political system, which was already breaking, and the consequences will spread far beyond our shores. UKIP has achieved Brexit and no longer has a purpose. Many of its activists will return to the Conservative Party which will most likely be led by Boris Johnson and Michael Gove.

A significant number of Tory MPs will refuse to accept the leadership of Boris Johnson. Meanwhile, there is already an active move to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader. Although Corbyn and his Left-wing cohort will retain control of the party machine, a majority of Labour MPs will break away and create a rebel group in the Commons. I expect the Labour Right to merge with the ‘modernising’ wing of the Conservatives. Effectively, they will form a new political party and fight ruthlessly to restore the Blairite/Cameron status quo that was blown to smithereens by the British people on Thursday.

This new party, having fought an unprincipled — albeit failed — campaign for Remain, can be expected to fight an equally unprincipled economic campaign and, backed by the City, to try to panic the British people into abandoning Brexit.

In these circumstances, it is unlikely that Boris Johnson will be able to command a Commons majority. Notwithstanding the Fixed Term Parliament Act (which means that apart from in exceptional circumstances, General Elections will only be held every five years), a way will be found to hold an election next year — or as early as November.

More than 40 per cent of Labour voters supported Brexit — even though less than five per cent of Labour MPs did. I would expect Prime Minister Johnson to offer a hand to Corbyn’s Labour in the hope of forming a national government. There are obvious Labour candidates for senior ministerial roles in this coalition, including Brexiteer MP Gisela Stuart and the veteran MP Frank Field.

In the interests of democracy, it is essential Labour should be represented in the post-Brexit negotiations with Brussels. The new government should be single-minded in its dedication to securing the best future for the UK outside the EU.

A government role should be found for Nigel Farage (one of the two or three most important post-war politicians) and his team. Since UKIP has only one MP, this will probably have to be done through peerages. The party which has campaigned for Brexit for so long deserves to share the responsibility of putting their ambitions into effect.



'A government role should be found for Nigel Farage (one of the two or three most important post-war politicians) and his team'

The Scottish Nationalists should be offered a second independence referendum — when the terms of Brexit are settled. This would be a fair democratic decision and it might secure the Parliamentary life of the new London government. For the Scot Nats would then be dependent on the new government to obtain permission to go ahead with a second independence referendum and thus it would agree not to support any no-confidence vote. The SNP would also face the same problem as before if it went independent and sought to rejoin the EU on its own — it would struggle as a small state to persuade Brussels to give it the same influence and hand-outs that Scotland got from Westminster. For example, would EU taxpayers fund Scotland’s lavish social security system, free university tuition fees, free prescriptions and public services in the way that English taxpayers do now?

The post-Brexit government will be a supreme test for the Civil Service under Sir Jeremy Heywood. It must work with as much dedication for the new administration as it did for Cameron’s pro-EU government. Any civil servant who feels they are unable to do so should resign.

Post-Brexit ministers must discover what contingency plans for Britain leaving the EU have been made in their departments. If, scandalously, no such emergency planning was made by Sir Cover-up’s team — Sir Jeremy and his senior civil servants should be sacked for dereliction of duty. (In the run-up to the 1975 referendum on Britain’s membership of the EEC, quite detailed planning was undertaken in the event of a Leave vote even though it was far less likely than in 2016.)

The Civil Service must immediately work to identify the EU legislation (and the UK legislation derived from it) which is in the genuine interests of the British people (for example, food safety) as distinct from that emanating from vested interests or crazed regulators. Parliament should set up a permanent committee to accelerate this work.


Bank of England governor Mark Carney must go. The Canadian banker has been a partisan voice in the referendum debate and cannot command the confidence of a post-Brexit government and people

Bank of England governor Mark Carney must go. The Canadian, former Goldman Sachs banker has been a partisan voice in the referendum debate — even attacking the Leave campaign on BBC1’s The Andrew Marr Show — and cannot command the confidence of a post-Brexit government and people. His predecessor Mervyn King should be persuaded to resume his post, to help calm markets.

The bold decision by the British people will stimulate a wider European revolt against the EU. I expect Greece to fall out of the euro within months, setting off a chain reaction. There will be a determined attempt, led by Germany’s Angela Merkel, to use this crisis to make moves to create a single European country. This will be resisted, leading to convulsions across Europe against a background of mass unemployment and economic failure.

The post-Brexit government has a huge opportunity to lead all European peoples to a better future than the declining, undemocratic, unloved EU. Already some European leaders are demanding a referendum in their own countries. We have everything to gain from presenting an agenda for a better Europe.


Part of the Vote Leave campaign will form part of the new government

Our message should be: No European people should have to accept the extinction of national democracy. No European people should have to accept mass unemployment and savage deflation — or massive extra taxation — to prop up the euro. No European people should be obliged to accept indefinite immigration, or to accept the continued failure and waste built into the Common Agricultural Policy and the fisheries policy and a host of other EU boondoggles. No European people need accept the folly of an EU army and the pretensions of an EU foreign policy.

On this basis, June 23 will go down as one of the great democratic moments in British history — and celebrated for centuries to come.
 
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mentalfloss

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Jun 28, 2010
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52% wanted to change, but that change won't be proportional with what they actually want and many will change their minds.

The next election is going to be a massive shift to the the left.

We've already gone through it in Canada and the US is following suit.

Australia and Britain are up next.
 

tay

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London’s ruling class Tory toffs are now making even bigger fools of themselves by indulging in an ugly, backstabbing power struggle worthy of the TV drama, ‘Game of Thrones.’

Boris Johnson, the presumptive heir to the bungling prime minister, David Cameron, was ready to be crowned. But he was stabbed in the back at the 11th hour by his old friend and ally, Michael Gove. Other Tories, like the hardline Theresa May, jumped into the race. Poor old Boris, who charmingly resembles Paddington the Bear, was forced to quit the race.

On the Labour side, the startling ineffectual socialist leader, Jeremy Corbyn, utterly failed to rally his troops to oppose Brexit. Working class votes swung the vote to exit. Labour leaders now call for Corbyn’s head, and rightly so.

It’s by now clear that a thin majority of British voted to decamp the EU because of anger at falling wages and rising prices, unemployment, and immigration of brown skinned people. And, of course, ye olde English dislike of the ‘bloody foreigners.’

The insulated, well-padded political class in London really didn’t give a damn about the unwashed, drunken football hooligans in the north who were the antithesis of the faux Merry Olde England that Americans so love.

Worse, it now transpires that the leaders of the Brexit vote didn’t actually expect it to succeed and didn’t know what to do next when it did. Many Brexit supporters had no idea what the European Union was. Just a bunch of ‘bloody foreigners.’

Those Brexit fans who screamed about lack of democracy in the EU didn’t seem to appreciate the glaring lack of democracy in Britain’s own incestuous political system where party members, not the public, select the leadership in a process worthy of the Kremlin.

On a sunnier note, the financial panic caused by the Brexit vote seems to have subsided. Rickety British banks did not collapse – at least not yet. The pound sterling, which the government has kept seriously overvalued for decades, sagged. That was a good thing. Prices in Britain are absurdly expensive due to the fortified pound. A US $1.20 pound would do wonders for Britain’s industry and tourism.

But the Tory ruling class has kept the pound artificially high to support their nation’s pretensions of imperial grandeur. Britain can no longer afford to be America’s gendarme *** Trojan Horse in Europe.

Britannia no longer rules the waves. London spends far too much on ego-boosting military power and overly big government. Whitehall still appears proudly imperial, but the north of England, where tourists never go, looks grim and shabby.

The ever-sensible Scots, who were bribed into joining the United Kingdom in 1707, may soon vote soon to get out of the union with England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Cosmopolitan Greater London, which rather likes the ‘bloody foreigners,’ and is filled with them, would also like to divorce from Britain.

But money, as in most divorces, is at the heart of things. The disastrous reaction of western central banks to the 2007-2008 financial crisis to keep interest rates at rock bottom has punished savers, workers and the middle class in the UK and USA.

‘Why should we subsidize the big banks,’ they rightly ask. The central bank financial alchemists have run out of tricks, purple smoke, and spells. Britons, like Americans, see fat cats in London and New York living the life of Reilly while they scrape for pennies. This is a classic recipe for revolution.

The Brits simply picked the wrong target for their ire in good part thanks to London’s rabid gutter press which promotes xenophobia and Islamophobia. The right target should have been the still poisonous class system and medieval political parties. At least the Brits showed that Americans have no monopoly on picking awful political leaders.

Britain, which used to be the world’s factory, is a manufacturing wasteland. Eighty percent of its business is services – ie paper-passing and financial jiggery-pokery. Some of it will migrate to the Continent. Britain – maybe henceforth England, if the Scots and Irish depart – will become a middling power ever more reliant on the Americans while the detested French and Germans run Europe. English may no longer be the lingua franca of the EU.

STICKY WICKET, CHAPS! « Eric Margolis

Britain’s political battleground has descended into treachery and farce.

In a chaotic response to the slim referendum vote to pull Britain out of the EU, London’s Palace of Westminster was littered with the victims of political backstabbing and intrigue.

Boris Johnson's political ambitions came to a crashing halt:

Johnson, who studied classics at Oxford University and once argued that studying Greek and Latin would keep young people off the streets, became the centre of his own personal Greek drama. In an act of treachery, his close colleague, Michael Gove, withdrew his support of Johnson at the last minute, saying that he now felt “Boris cannot provide the leadership.” Gove announced he would run for the top job instead.

Jeremy Corbin's political future looks no better:

As if this wasn’t enough, Britain’s opposition Labour party is also in tatters. Its leader, Jeremy Corbyn, under attack for his lacklustre support of the pro-Europe side in the referendum, received an overwhelming vote of non-confidence from Labour MPs. The pressure on him to resign is building.

So that’s where politics stand in Merrie Olde England, barely a week after the historic referendum on Europe.

There are two reasons why Britain's exit may never happen:

The idea of a 50-per-cent-plus-one referendum deciding such colossal issues in the life of a nation is increasingly being discredited.

It will likely take another election to even begin to restore the credibility of the Britain’s floundering and self-absorbed political and media elites.

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2016/07/02/why-the-brexit-follies-could-save-the-eu-burman.html
 

Blackleaf

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Oct 9, 2004
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The next election is going to be a massive shift to the the left.

Bollocks. Not with the way the Labour Party are in disarray at the moment.

The insulated, well-padded political class in London really didn’t give a damn about the unwashed, drunken football hooligans in the north
Calling millions of people in the North of England "drunken football hoollgans" is a bit sick.

Many Brexit supporters had no idea what the European Union was.
Where's the evidence for this?

The ever-sensible Scots, who were bribed into joining the United Kingdom in 1707, may soon vote soon to get out of the union with England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
What would be sensible about leaving the most successful political union in history and rejoining a failing, crumbling political union that has caused mass unemployment, social unrest and riots and having to join the disastrous euro, become part of Schengen and accept mass immigration from the Islamic world, see controls along its border with England and likely see trade with the non-EU UK - the rest of the UK currently being Scotland's biggest trading partner - suffer?

We also need to remember that only 41% of the Scottish electorate voted Remain.

Britain, which used to be the world’s factory, is a manufacturing wasteland. Eighty percent of its business is services
The same is true of the US and France. 70% of the Canadian and German and Australian economies is services.

Britain – maybe henceforth England, if the Scots and Irish depart – will become a middling power ever more reliant on the Americans
Brexit will increase Britain's standing in the world and make her a great power again. If Scotland leaves the UK and rejoins the EU as Germany's bitch then it'll be Scotland which will become less than a middling power whilst the rest of the UK thrives and booms outside of the EU's shackles.

while the detested French and Germans run Europe.
I predict France, too, will also leave the EU. Euroscepticism there is even greater than in Britain.

And when Turkey joins the EU - a country with a rapidly growing Muslim population - it will eventually become the EU's biggest member state, overtaking Germany's shrinking population, and have the most seats and power in the EU Parliament. Turkey will then run Europe, not Germany, not France. The EU will be run by an Islamist-supporting Muslim nation - but Britain, thankfully, won't be a part of it.

Britain – maybe henceforth England, if the Scots and Irish depart – will become a middling power ever more reliant on the Americans

Brexitt will increase Britain's standing in the world and make her a great power again. If Scotland leaves the UK and rejoins the EU as Germany's bitch then it'll be Scotland which will become less than a middling power whilst the rest of the UK thrives and booms outside of the EU's shackles.

while the detested French and Germans run Europe.

I predict France, too, will also leave the EU. Euroscepticism there is even greater than in Britain.

And when Turkey joins the EU - a country with a rapidly growing Muslim population - it will eventually become the EU's biggest member state, overtaking Germany's shrinking economy, and have the most seats and power in the EU Parliament. Turkey will then run Europe, not Germanyy, not France. The EU will be run by the Muslims - but Britain, thankfully, won't be a part of it.