Today's General Election to elect the 56th Parliament of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is the most unpredictable for decades.
It seems most likely that, just as in 2010 and 1974, no party will gain an overall majority (and it's difficult to say who will get the most votes and who will get the most seats) and another coalition may have to be formed. Or we could have another General Election later this year.
However, one man has given us 10 predictions for this election.
Campaign Calculus: 10 predictions for the general election
The election will be close, but not impossible to predict
Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband, David Cameron and Nigel Farage
By Martin Baxter
07 May 2015
The Telegraph
In the year of the two hundredth anniversary of Waterloo both the main party leaders may ruefully recall the words of the Duke of Wellington: "It has been a damned nice thing – the nearest run thing you ever saw in your life." For May 2015 is likely to be the nicest (closest) election for many years.
The actual result is in the hands of the voters, but one can predict the shape of the likely result. These predictions are based on independent work conducted by Electoral Calculus, as well as other predictors, using published opinion polls and betting market prices. Of course, the polls have been wrong before, notably in 1992 when a Neil Kinnock victory was wrongly predicted. So nothing is certain, and probably some of these predictions will not turn out true. That said, here are the top ten predictions for the general election result.
(All predictions are ninety per cent likely unless otherwise stated.)
Parliament will be hung
The Conservatives and Labour are approximately equal in the polls at around thirty-three per cent each. Both need a lead of about five per cent to have an overall majority in the Commons, and this now looks pretty unlikely. So with a high probability, no party will have an overall majority.
The Conservatives will be the largest party
Although close, the Conservatives have a small lead over Labour in both the polls and the betting markets. In terms of seats, the Conservatives might be around 5-20 seats ahead of Labour. This prediction is slightly less certain, with a 75 per cent chance of coming true.
Labour plus SNP gets more seats than Conservatives plus Lib Dems
In a hung parliament, what matters is the number of seats that different blocs of parties can put together. The two main blocs will be the existing coalition parties and the left-of-centre grouping of Labour plus the SNP. Although Ed Miliband has downplayed a formal coalition or deal with the SNP, there is still likely to be some sort of arrangement or understanding if that would enable a minority Labour government. Much will depend on whether this left-leaning bloc is larger than the existing coalition. It probably will be, but only with a 60 per cent chance.
The Liberal Democrats will lose most of their seats
The voters seem to hate Nick and Clegg the Liberal Democrats for taking part in the coalition government. Lib Dem support has dropped from 24 per cent to around 10 per cent. Consequently, most Lib Dem seats will be lost, usually to the benefit of Labour. The Lib Dems might end up with no more than twenty seats, according to the Electoral Calculus model, but the incumbency factor might help them keep a further ten.
The SNP win most seats in Scotland
Since the referendum last September, the SNP have jumped to a commanding lead in the Scottish opinion polls, currently averaging 49 per cent. They would then replace Scottish Labour as the dominant political force in Scotland. They will win over half of the 59 Scottish seats, and might well win around 50 seats.
Ukip wins no more than five seats
Although Ukip will win over ten per cent of the popular vote, or over three million votes, these votes will achieve little. The electoral system is not kind to third parties with evenly-spread support and Ukip will win Clacton, (possibly) Thanet South, and maybe a couple of others. But the main effect of these Ukip votes will be to transfer twenty seats from the Conservatives to Labour.
Evens chance of Labour/SNP having majority
Although the bloc of Labour plus SNP is likely to be the largest grouping in Parliament, it is a toss-up whether they will have the 326 seats necessary to guarantee a majority. If they do, the majority will probably be slender, and it is just as likely to be a minority grouping. Labour would then require co-operation not only from the SNP, but also from other minor parties.
Greens win one seat
Caroline Lucas will retain the Greens' seat in Brighton Pavilion, but the Greens will not win any other seats. Their one and a half million youthful voters will be confused and upset.
Lib Dems almost wiped out in Scotland
The Lib Dems might hold on to Orkney and Shetland, but they have collapsed in Scotland to only 5 pc support and will lose nearly all their seats. Some high-profile names, including Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy, will fall victim.
The next Prime Minister will be...
Hard to predict. Even knowing the exact parliamentary result doesn't help predict who will emerge as Prime Minister from the inter-party negotiations that will follow. The bookies have the odds finely balanced between David Cameron and Ed Miliband at fifty-fifty. Even after polling day, it may still be the nearest run thing you ever saw.
Martin Baxter is the founder of Electoral Calculus, Britain's leading site for the scientific prediction of election results. He is providing regular analysis for the Telegraph in the run-up to the general election
Campaign Calculus: 10 predictions for the general election - Telegraph
It seems most likely that, just as in 2010 and 1974, no party will gain an overall majority (and it's difficult to say who will get the most votes and who will get the most seats) and another coalition may have to be formed. Or we could have another General Election later this year.
However, one man has given us 10 predictions for this election.
Campaign Calculus: 10 predictions for the general election
The election will be close, but not impossible to predict
Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband, David Cameron and Nigel Farage
By Martin Baxter
07 May 2015
The Telegraph
In the year of the two hundredth anniversary of Waterloo both the main party leaders may ruefully recall the words of the Duke of Wellington: "It has been a damned nice thing – the nearest run thing you ever saw in your life." For May 2015 is likely to be the nicest (closest) election for many years.
The actual result is in the hands of the voters, but one can predict the shape of the likely result. These predictions are based on independent work conducted by Electoral Calculus, as well as other predictors, using published opinion polls and betting market prices. Of course, the polls have been wrong before, notably in 1992 when a Neil Kinnock victory was wrongly predicted. So nothing is certain, and probably some of these predictions will not turn out true. That said, here are the top ten predictions for the general election result.
(All predictions are ninety per cent likely unless otherwise stated.)
Parliament will be hung
The Conservatives and Labour are approximately equal in the polls at around thirty-three per cent each. Both need a lead of about five per cent to have an overall majority in the Commons, and this now looks pretty unlikely. So with a high probability, no party will have an overall majority.
The Conservatives will be the largest party
Although close, the Conservatives have a small lead over Labour in both the polls and the betting markets. In terms of seats, the Conservatives might be around 5-20 seats ahead of Labour. This prediction is slightly less certain, with a 75 per cent chance of coming true.
Labour plus SNP gets more seats than Conservatives plus Lib Dems
In a hung parliament, what matters is the number of seats that different blocs of parties can put together. The two main blocs will be the existing coalition parties and the left-of-centre grouping of Labour plus the SNP. Although Ed Miliband has downplayed a formal coalition or deal with the SNP, there is still likely to be some sort of arrangement or understanding if that would enable a minority Labour government. Much will depend on whether this left-leaning bloc is larger than the existing coalition. It probably will be, but only with a 60 per cent chance.
The Liberal Democrats will lose most of their seats
The voters seem to hate Nick and Clegg the Liberal Democrats for taking part in the coalition government. Lib Dem support has dropped from 24 per cent to around 10 per cent. Consequently, most Lib Dem seats will be lost, usually to the benefit of Labour. The Lib Dems might end up with no more than twenty seats, according to the Electoral Calculus model, but the incumbency factor might help them keep a further ten.
The SNP win most seats in Scotland
Since the referendum last September, the SNP have jumped to a commanding lead in the Scottish opinion polls, currently averaging 49 per cent. They would then replace Scottish Labour as the dominant political force in Scotland. They will win over half of the 59 Scottish seats, and might well win around 50 seats.
Ukip wins no more than five seats
Although Ukip will win over ten per cent of the popular vote, or over three million votes, these votes will achieve little. The electoral system is not kind to third parties with evenly-spread support and Ukip will win Clacton, (possibly) Thanet South, and maybe a couple of others. But the main effect of these Ukip votes will be to transfer twenty seats from the Conservatives to Labour.
Evens chance of Labour/SNP having majority
Although the bloc of Labour plus SNP is likely to be the largest grouping in Parliament, it is a toss-up whether they will have the 326 seats necessary to guarantee a majority. If they do, the majority will probably be slender, and it is just as likely to be a minority grouping. Labour would then require co-operation not only from the SNP, but also from other minor parties.
Greens win one seat
Caroline Lucas will retain the Greens' seat in Brighton Pavilion, but the Greens will not win any other seats. Their one and a half million youthful voters will be confused and upset.
Lib Dems almost wiped out in Scotland
The Lib Dems might hold on to Orkney and Shetland, but they have collapsed in Scotland to only 5 pc support and will lose nearly all their seats. Some high-profile names, including Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy, will fall victim.
The next Prime Minister will be...
Hard to predict. Even knowing the exact parliamentary result doesn't help predict who will emerge as Prime Minister from the inter-party negotiations that will follow. The bookies have the odds finely balanced between David Cameron and Ed Miliband at fifty-fifty. Even after polling day, it may still be the nearest run thing you ever saw.
Martin Baxter is the founder of Electoral Calculus, Britain's leading site for the scientific prediction of election results. He is providing regular analysis for the Telegraph in the run-up to the general election
Campaign Calculus: 10 predictions for the general election - Telegraph
