After Crimea: Top Intelligence Analysts Forecast 5 Things That Putin Might Do Next


Locutus
#1
Russian President Vladimir Putin has invaded and annexed Crimea, continuing a Kremlin practice of employing military intervention abroad under the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians and Russian interests.

While Putin's creep into Ukraine is far from over, there are other military moves Russia could make to extend its post-Soviet sphere of influence.

Wikistrat, a consultancy that analyzes geopolitical and economic forces using crowd-sourced expertise, has been calculating what could happen next in the region.

In January, Wikistrat analysts forecast the potential for Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to resign (which he did a month later) and for Crimea to request annexation into Russia (which occurred this week).

Recently, 66 analysts spent five days exploring scenarios involving all types of interventions, from small-scale missions against criminals and terrorists to outright invasions and massive cyberattacks.

Here are five plausible and alarming scenarios compiled by Wikistrat senior analyst (and BI contributor) professor Mark Galeotti:



more

Wikistrat: The Next Russian Military Invasion - Business Insider
 
petros
#2
Belarus will have a Revolution this year.
 
PoliticalNick
Free Thinker
+1
#3
Quote: Originally Posted by petrosView Post

Belarus will have a Revolution this year.

I wish Canada would have one too!
 
MHz
#4
He should have tanking the petro dollar as number 1 as Russia and China are already trading in anything but USD

Petrodollar Alert: Putin Prepares To Announce "Holy Grail" Gas Deal With China | Zero Hedge

If it was the intent of the West to bring Russia and China together - one a natural resource (if "somewhat" corrupt) superpower and the other a fixed capital / labor output (if "somewhat" capital misallocating and credit bubbleicious) powerhouse - in the process marginalizing the dollar and encouraging Ruble and Renminbi bilateral trade, then things are surely "going according to plan."
For now there have been no major developments as a result of the shift in the geopolitical axis that has seen global US influence, away from the Group of 7 (most insolvent nations) of course, decline precipitously in the aftermath of the bungled Syrian intervention attempt and the bloodless Russian annexation of Crimea, but that will soon change. Because while the west is focused on day to day developments in Ukraine, and how to halt Russian expansion through appeasement (hardly a winning tactic as events in the 1930s demonstrated), Russia is once again thinking 3 steps ahead... and quite a few steps east.
While Europe is furiously scrambling to find alternative sources of energy should Gazprom pull the plug on natgas exports to Germany and Europe (the imminent surge in Ukraine gas prices by 40% is probably the best indication of what the outcome would be), Russia is preparing the announcement of the "Holy Grail" energy deal with none other than China, a move which would send geopolitical shockwaves around the world and bind the two nations in a commodity-backed axis. One which, as some especially on these pages, have suggested would lay the groundwork for a new joint, commodity-backed reserve currency that bypasses the dollar, something which Russia implied moments ago when its finance minister Siluanov said that Russia may refrain from foreign borrowing this year. Translated: bypass western purchases of Russian debt, funded by Chinese purchases of US Treasurys, and go straight to the source.
Here is what will likely happen next, as explained by Reuters:


Igor Sechin gathered media in Tokyo the next day to warn Western governments that more sanctions over Moscow's seizure of the Black Sea peninsula from Ukraine would be counter-productive.

The underlying message from the head of Russia's biggest oil company, Rosneft, was clear: If Europe and the United States isolate Russia, Moscow will look East for new business, energy deals, military contracts and political alliances.

The Holy Grail for Moscow is a natural gas supply deal with China that is apparently now close after years of negotiations. If it can be signed when Putin visits China in May, he will be able to hold it up to show that global power has shifted eastwards and he does not need the West.
More details on the revelation of said "Holy Grail":


State-owned Russian gas firm Gazprom hopes to pump 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas per year to China from 2018 via the first pipeline between the world's largest producer of conventional gas to the largest consumer.

"May is in our plans," a Gazprom spokesman said, when asked about the timing of an agreement. A company source said: "It would be logical to expect the deal during Putin's visit to China."
Summarizing what should be and is painfully obvious to all, but apparently to the White House, which keeps prodding at Russia, is the following:


"The worse Russia's relations are with the West, the closer Russia will want to be to China. If China supports you, no one can say you're isolated," said Vasily Kashin, a China expert at the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST) think thank.
11 International Agreements That Are Nails In The Coffin Of The Petrodollar

#1 China And Russia
China and Russia have decided to start using their own currencies when trading with each other. The following is from a China Daily article about this important agreement....
China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday.
Chinese experts said the move reflected closer relations between Beijing and Moscow and is not aimed at challenging the dollar, but to protect their domestic economies.
"About trade settlement, we have decided to use our own currencies," Putin said at a joint news conference with Wen in St. Petersburg.
The two countries were accustomed to using other currencies, especially the dollar, for bilateral trade. Since the financial crisis, however, high-ranking officials on both sides began to explore other possibilities.




PressTV - China plan to quit dollar infuriates US: Analyst


The decision by the Central Bank of China to no longer accumulate foreign exchange reserves in dollar has infuriated the United States, an analyst says.


Finian Cunningham made the remark in a Sunday column for Press TV amid escalation of tensions between US and China over Beijing's enforcement of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).
“The escalation of military tensions between Washington and Beijing in the East China Sea is superficially over China’s unilateral declaration of an air defense zone. But the real reason for Washington’s ire is the recent Chinese announcement that it is planning to reduce its holdings of the US dollar,” he wrote.
 
petros
#5
What's with the old news megahurts?
 
captain morgan
Bloc Québécois
+1
#6
"Russia is preparing the announcement of the "Holy Grail" energy deal with none other than China, a move which would send geopolitical shockwaves around the world and bind the two nations in a commodity-backed axis"

China still does all of it's trade with the EU and NorAm.... The Chinese currency may have some value assuming that China floats it globally, but the closed loop between China/Russia will not have any big benefit for a long time to come
 
petros
#7
No threat to the NG dollar.
 
Blackleaf
#8
Putin may go after Transnistria next.

Transnistria (also called Trans-Dniestr or Transdniestria) forms much of the eastern edge of Moldova, and forms much of the Moldovan border with Ukraine.



However, like the Crimeans, most Transnistrians are ethnic Russians and, just like Crimea, Transnistria wishes to be part of Russia. In 1990, it declared its independence. In 1992 the War of Transnistria occurred between the Transnistrians, supported by the Russians, and the rest of Moldova. The result was that Transnistria became a de facto independent republic, but is internationally recognised as part of Moldova.

With the Transnistrians seeing their fellow Russians in Crimea becoming part of Russia again, they may call for Putin to send troops into their little breakaway state to annex it.
Last edited by Blackleaf; Mar 24th, 2014 at 08:09 AM..
 
petros
#9
Quote: Originally Posted by BlackleafView Post

Putin may go after Transnistria next.

Transnistria forms the eastern edge of Moldova, and forms much of the Moldovan border with Ukraine.



However, like the Crimeans, most Transnistrians are ethnic Russians and, just like Crimea, Transnistria wishes to be part of Russia. In 1990, it declared its independence. In 1992 the War of Transnistria occurred between the Transnistrians, supported by the Russians, and the rest of Moldova. The result was that Transnistria became a de facto independent republic, but is internationally recognised as part of Moldova.

With the Transnistrians seeing their fellow Russians in Crimea becoming part of Russia again, they may call for Putin to send troops into their little breakaway state to annex it.

What is their official language?
 
MHz
#10
Quote: Originally Posted by petrosView Post

What's with the old news megahurts?

The OP's article forgets to mention that and comes up with some world domination fantasy.
 
Tecumsehsbones
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by petrosView Post

What is their official language?

Klingon. Or close as makes no difference.
 
captain morgan
Bloc Québécois
#12
Quote: Originally Posted by petrosView Post

No threat to the NG dollar.


The LNG dollar will threaten that
 
MHz
#13
Quote: Originally Posted by petrosView Post

What is their official language?

Crimea has 3 official languages now.
Russian, Ukrainian and Crimean Tartar.
Read more: Crimea to have 3 official languages: Russian, Ukrainian and Tatar - Putin - News - Politics - The Voice of Russia: News, Breaking news, Politics, Economics, Business, Russia, International current events, Expert opinion, podcasts, Video
 
Blackleaf
#14
Quote: Originally Posted by petrosView Post

What is their official language?


Russian is the main official language and the lingua franca, but Moldovan and Romanian are also spoken.
 
petros
#15
Quote: Originally Posted by BlackleafView Post

Putin may go after Transnistria next.

Transnistria forms the eastern edge of Moldova, and forms much of the Moldovan border with Ukraine.



However, like the Crimeans, most Transnistrians are ethnic Russians and, just like Crimea, Transnistria wishes to be part of Russia. In 1990, it declared its independence. In 1992 the War of Transnistria occurred between the Transnistrians, supported by the Russians, and the rest of Moldova. The result was that Transnistria became a de facto independent republic, but is internationally recognised as part of Moldova.

With the Transnistrians seeing their fellow Russians in Crimea becoming part of Russia again, they may call for Putin to send troops into their little breakaway state to annex it.

What is their official language?
 
B00Mer
Republican
#16
The people of Crimea has a referendum to join Russia, and the world community calls that undemocratic.

Take note Quebec...

Quote: Originally Posted by petrosView Post

What is their official language?

What's the USA's official language, but you go to East LA you'll find a hard time hearing a word of English. Same might be said for Lichmond, BC...
 
petros
#17
Quote: Originally Posted by B00MerView Post

The people of Crimea has a referendum to join Russia, and the world community calls that undemocratic.

Take note Quebec...



What's the USA's official language, but you go to East LA you'll find a hard time hearing a word of English. Same might be said for Lichmond, BC...

It was a military invasion B00Mski.
 
Blackleaf
#18
In fact, Russians aren't the largest ethnic group in Transnistria. The Moldovans are.

Ethnic groups (2005)

32.1% Moldovans
30.4% Russians
28.8% Ukrainians
2.5% Bulgarians
6.2% others / unspecified

However, despite that, a 2006 referendum did show that most Transistrians wish to be part of Russia.

Moldova's Trans-Dniester region pleads to join Russia - BBC News - Moldova's Trans-Dniester region pleads to join Russia


A sign in Trans-Dniester reminds people: "We are not Moldova!" It also reminds them of the result of the 2006 referendum
Last edited by Blackleaf; Mar 24th, 2014 at 08:21 AM..
 
petros
#19
Quote: Originally Posted by BlackleafView Post

Russian is the main official language and the lingua franca, but Moldovan and Romanian are also spoken.

Depends who you ask.in that defacto Russian military back territory
 
Blackleaf
#20
Quote: Originally Posted by petrosView Post

Depends who you ask.in that defacto Russian military back territory

The three languages spoken in Transnistria are Russian, Moldovan (in the Cyrillic script, according to the wishes of the Transnistrians, but the Moldovans have been trying to have it written in the Latin script) and Ukrainian.

However it is Russian which is the main official language and the lingua franca of Transnistria.
 
B00Mer
Republican
#21
Quote: Originally Posted by petrosView Post

It was a military invasion B00Mski.

So was Iraq, Petra, then they had an election to elect a US puppet ... Crimea is a region, similar to Quebec in Canada, filled with Ethnic Russians to still speak Russia..

Now if Quebec would only take a page from the Crimea referendum and join France, the rest of Canada can join the USA...
 
captain morgan
Bloc Québécois
+3
#22  Top Rated Post
Quote: Originally Posted by B00MerView Post

Now if Quebec would only take a page from the Crimea referendum and join France, the rest of Canada can join the USA...


Good Lord man... What makes you think that the ROC wants to take on Obama's debts?
 
petros
#23
Quote: Originally Posted by BlackleafView Post

The three languages spoken in Transnistria are Russian, Moldovan (in the Cyrillic script, according to the wishes of the Transnistrians, but the Moldovans have been trying to have it written in the Latin script) and Ukrainian.

However it is Russian which is the main official language and the lingua franca of Transnistria.

No Ukrainian spoken there at all? Ukt

ItItit
 
PoliticalNick
Free Thinker
#24
Quote: Originally Posted by petrosView Post

It was a military invasion B00Mski.

So was Afghanistan and Iraq....what is your point?
 

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