Genius
Posts: 953 
Location: Calgary, AB
Location: Calgary, AB
April 27th, 2006, 12:28 AM
Conservatives enter majority territory says poll taken before flag flap
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OTTAWA (CP) - The Conservatives have seized a commanding lead in popularity over the Liberals and inched into majority-government territory, says a new survey released Wednesday.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Tories held a 15-point advantage over the Liberals and broke past what is considered the benchmark for winning a majority government, says the Decima poll. However, the survey was taken before the government stirred up a hornet's nest with a pair of controversial decisions involving the military.
The Conservatives stood at 41 per cent - one point above the mark that is traditionally considered the dividing line that separates majorities from minorities.
The Liberals held 26 per cent and the NDP, despite its continued efforts to chip away at Liberal support, remained a distant third at 19 per cent.
Decima's chief pollster says the Conservatives have been steadily gaining ground since the election. They won a minority government with 36 per cent of the popular vote on Jan. 23.
"(They) appear to be continuing to solidify the gains they made in the last election campaign and to perhaps be adding support as well," Anderson said.
It's not yet clear what impact, if any, more recent events may have on Conservative popularity.
Harper was lambasted in the media and ridiculed in several editorial cartoons Wednesday for shutting down a military base to restrict public viewing of the homecoming ceremony for four fallen soldiers.
One such cartoon in the Halifax Herald showed the prime minister hoisting an American flag atop the Peace Tower. Another depicted the Conservative party flag at half-mast, and one showed Harper flapping from a flagpole.
The government has refused to lower the Maple Leaf on Parliament Hill but has lowered flags at some military points at home and abroad.
Anderson, however, said he doubted this week's controversy would reverse Tory momentum.
"I'd be surprised if that changed very much as a consequence of this week," he said.
The Conservatives especially gained support among groups that have traditionally been lukewarm to the party: women, young people and urban Canadians.
Anderson says those gains indicate the Tories are earning a reputation as a moderate party and appealing to middle-of-the-road voters.
"They have been . . . building a reputation as centrist in governing style, (and) surprising some people in the demographic groups that have resisted the Conservative Party in recent years."
The Conservatives had more support than the Liberals among women as well as men, among every age group, in urban as well as rural areas and in every region except Atlantic Canada, the poll said.
The governing party had a seven-point lead over the Liberals in Ontario, where the Liberals currently hold the lion's share of seats. The Tories held 40 per cent in that province, the Liberals 33 per cent, and the NDP had 25 per cent.
The Conservatives remained three points ahead of the Liberals in Quebec, but both parties continued to languish far behind the Bloc Quebecois. In Quebec, the Bloc held 43 per cent, the Tories had 25 per cent, and the Liberals were at 22.
The telephone poll of 1,002 Canadians was conducted April 20 to 23, and has a 3.1 per cent margin of error, 19 times out of 20.
©The Canadian Press, 2006
http://start.shaw.ca/start/enCA/News...c=n042683A.xml
Conservatives enter majority territory says poll taken before flag flap
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OTTAWA (CP) - The Conservatives have seized a commanding lead in popularity over the Liberals and inched into majority-government territory, says a new survey released Wednesday.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Tories held a 15-point advantage over the Liberals and broke past what is considered the benchmark for winning a majority government, says the Decima poll. However, the survey was taken before the government stirred up a hornet's nest with a pair of controversial decisions involving the military.
The Conservatives stood at 41 per cent - one point above the mark that is traditionally considered the dividing line that separates majorities from minorities.
The Liberals held 26 per cent and the NDP, despite its continued efforts to chip away at Liberal support, remained a distant third at 19 per cent.
Decima's chief pollster says the Conservatives have been steadily gaining ground since the election. They won a minority government with 36 per cent of the popular vote on Jan. 23.
"(They) appear to be continuing to solidify the gains they made in the last election campaign and to perhaps be adding support as well," Anderson said.
It's not yet clear what impact, if any, more recent events may have on Conservative popularity.
Harper was lambasted in the media and ridiculed in several editorial cartoons Wednesday for shutting down a military base to restrict public viewing of the homecoming ceremony for four fallen soldiers.
One such cartoon in the Halifax Herald showed the prime minister hoisting an American flag atop the Peace Tower. Another depicted the Conservative party flag at half-mast, and one showed Harper flapping from a flagpole.
The government has refused to lower the Maple Leaf on Parliament Hill but has lowered flags at some military points at home and abroad.
Anderson, however, said he doubted this week's controversy would reverse Tory momentum.
"I'd be surprised if that changed very much as a consequence of this week," he said.
The Conservatives especially gained support among groups that have traditionally been lukewarm to the party: women, young people and urban Canadians.
Anderson says those gains indicate the Tories are earning a reputation as a moderate party and appealing to middle-of-the-road voters.
"They have been . . . building a reputation as centrist in governing style, (and) surprising some people in the demographic groups that have resisted the Conservative Party in recent years."
The Conservatives had more support than the Liberals among women as well as men, among every age group, in urban as well as rural areas and in every region except Atlantic Canada, the poll said.
The governing party had a seven-point lead over the Liberals in Ontario, where the Liberals currently hold the lion's share of seats. The Tories held 40 per cent in that province, the Liberals 33 per cent, and the NDP had 25 per cent.
The Conservatives remained three points ahead of the Liberals in Quebec, but both parties continued to languish far behind the Bloc Quebecois. In Quebec, the Bloc held 43 per cent, the Tories had 25 per cent, and the Liberals were at 22.
The telephone poll of 1,002 Canadians was conducted April 20 to 23, and has a 3.1 per cent margin of error, 19 times out of 20.
©The Canadian Press, 2006
http://start.shaw.ca/start/enCA/News...c=n042683A.xml
Ponderous Intellect
Posts: 3,786
Location: Toronto
Location: Toronto
April 27th, 2006, 12:47 AM
Only poll which counts is the one done on elecction day.
And right now the Liberals will not have a good standing in the polls because of lack of leadership. Once they have a new strong leader I'm sure they will rise again at the Conservatives and possibly the Democrats lose as well.
Only poll which counts is the one done on elecction day.
And right now the Liberals will not have a good standing in the polls because of lack of leadership. Once they have a new strong leader I'm sure they will rise again at the Conservatives and possibly the Democrats lose as well.
Genius
Posts: 953
Location: Calgary, AB
Location: Calgary, AB
April 27th, 2006, 01:27 AM
Quoting
yea your right, if the Liberals had a strong leader they would be higher in the polls. Although I think this silly flag contriversey may cause a temporary drop or hault in support in the next few weeks for the Tories, I think the polls which come after the budget is tabled are going to be more telling. Yes I know the only poll that matters is election day, but I think this budget will determine whether the Conservative continue to slowly rise into solid majority position, or not.
Only poll which counts is the one done on elecction day.
And right now the Liberals will not have a good standing in the polls because of lack of leadership. Once they have a new strong leader I'm sure they will rise again at the Conservatives and possibly the Democrats lose as well.
And right now the Liberals will not have a good standing in the polls because of lack of leadership. Once they have a new strong leader I'm sure they will rise again at the Conservatives and possibly the Democrats lose as well.
Ponderous Intellect
Posts: 3,786
Location: Toronto
Location: Toronto
April 27th, 2006, 01:31 AM
as I said the only poll which matters for any party is the one on election day. I don't think people care enough about the flag thing for it to effect the way people feel about the parties. They might get a little pissed off but if you are a conservative I can't see you voting Liberal over just this one issue. But leadership is a big thing and one which will hurt the Liberals until they chose one. When they chose one if the leader is left, right or centre doesn't matter but his personaility will.
I'm not sure where we are going in the next election, all I know is that the polls change so often they don't really matter.
as I said the only poll which matters for any party is the one on election day. I don't think people care enough about the flag thing for it to effect the way people feel about the parties. They might get a little pissed off but if you are a conservative I can't see you voting Liberal over just this one issue. But leadership is a big thing and one which will hurt the Liberals until they chose one. When they chose one if the leader is left, right or centre doesn't matter but his personaility will.
I'm not sure where we are going in the next election, all I know is that the polls change so often they don't really matter.
Genius
Posts: 953
Location: Calgary, AB
Location: Calgary, AB
April 27th, 2006, 08:31 PM
Quoting
I dunno, I think the flag flap and the media ban will have a slight if not temporary negative effect on the polls beacuse the media is attempthing to make this a big deal. Yes Conservatives are not going to become Liberals because of this issue, but Liberals who are on the edge of supporting the Tories might buy the medias viewpoint and take a step back if only temporarily. After all the Tory support seems fairly solid, but it is the "swing vote" which decides who forms govt. But like I said I think this will all be small beans after the budget comes, then we will have a better understanding of how well the Tories will do in the next election.
as I said the only poll which matters for any party is the one on election day. I don't think people care enough about the flag thing for it to effect the way people feel about the parties. They might get a little pissed off but if you are a conservative I can't see you voting Liberal over just this one issue. But leadership is a big thing and one which will hurt the Liberals until they chose one. When they chose one if the leader is left, right or centre doesn't matter but his personaility will.
I'm not sure where we are going in the next election, all I know is that the polls change so often they don't really matter.
I'm not sure where we are going in the next election, all I know is that the polls change so often they don't really matter.
Ponderous Intellect
Posts: 3,786
Location: Toronto
Location: Toronto
April 27th, 2006, 08:35 PM
The Conservatives will most likely never go under 25% and they always have most of the seats from Alberta. Those combined give them a better chance then the Democrats. Also then who else are there, besides the Liberals who are leaderless right now and will need a very good leader for the next election. Unless the Democrats somehow take over the Liberal mantel (unlikely) which would actually benifit the conservatives in away I do not see the Conservatives losing this government. I think the worst the conservatives could get is another minority government.
One thing the Conservatives have to do is get stronger in Quebec. If you can hold onto those seats and even gain more the Conservatives will be hard to unthrone. If they lose those seats well we are looking at some interesting possibilities.
The Conservatives will most likely never go under 25% and they always have most of the seats from Alberta. Those combined give them a better chance then the Democrats. Also then who else are there, besides the Liberals who are leaderless right now and will need a very good leader for the next election. Unless the Democrats somehow take over the Liberal mantel (unlikely) which would actually benifit the conservatives in away I do not see the Conservatives losing this government. I think the worst the conservatives could get is another minority government.
One thing the Conservatives have to do is get stronger in Quebec. If you can hold onto those seats and even gain more the Conservatives will be hard to unthrone. If they lose those seats well we are looking at some interesting possibilities.
Genius
Posts: 953
Location: Calgary, AB
Location: Calgary, AB
April 27th, 2006, 08:47 PM
I agree that that would almost ensure that the Conservatives win a majority.The extreme left would probably stick with the NDP while the pick up the left wing liberal vote. The center/right vote would bleed to the Conservatives and you would probably see a majority with the NDP and LIbs with close seat counts.
Come to think of it why dont the NDP move more to the center?????
Quoting
That would be interesting if the NDP attempted to shove the Liberals over and move to the center/center-left. I don't know how they would do that, but it would be interesting.
Unless the Democrats somehow take over the Liberal mantel (unlikely) which would actually benifit the conservatives in away I do not see the Conservatives losing this government. I think the worst the conservatives could get is another minority government.
I agree that that would almost ensure that the Conservatives win a majority.The extreme left would probably stick with the NDP while the pick up the left wing liberal vote. The center/right vote would bleed to the Conservatives and you would probably see a majority with the NDP and LIbs with close seat counts.
Come to think of it why dont the NDP move more to the center?????
